Wednesday, November 7, 2012

MIDSEASON STATE OF THE RAVENS

   I must begin this post by apologizing to readers for not posting my predictions last week.  I wrote up a full weekly analysis and list of predictions and simply neglected to hit the publish button at the end.  By the time I realized what I had done, it was simply too late as too many games had already been played and it would be tough to take my word on my predictions.  I, thus, chose instead to kick back, relax, and enjoy watching the Ravens sweep the Browns for the 5 straight year.  I was quite pleased with the victory, but I am all too aware that oodles of other Ravens fans still feel as though the team is headed for disaster.  I urge those fans to calm down and really take a look at how the Ravens have progressed and improved since the beginning of the season.  I did just that, and I found myself at least somewhat pleased with what I found.
     The losses of Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb during the home game against the Cowboys appeared to have had an extreme effect on the Ravens as they were promptly beat down by the Texans the following weekend in Houston.  The pass defense and run defense appeared to have no answer for offensive weapons that the Ravens beat twice last year.  And yes, I know Matt Schaub didn't play in the playoff game, but he did play in the regular season game wherein the Ravens beat the Texans down 29-15.  The Ravens limped out of Houston, and Ravens fans soon learned that Haloti Ngata was playing through a sprained MCL and that Ed Reed has a torn labrum with which he intends to play for the rest of the season.  At that point, almost all of the Ravens' big defensive names were either out with injuries or playing through them.  The bye week couldn't have come at a better time.
     Now let's fast forward to last weekend's showdown with the Browns in Cleveland.  The Ravens had Terrell Suggs back in decent shape, and had two weeks to plan their offensive attack on a Browns defense that looked much improved with the return of Joe Haden.  Ravens fans heard the chatter of how Ray Rice needs to touch the football early and often to open the offense up and allow Joe to work his play-action magic.  The Ravens had, after all, given Ray Rice only 9 carries against Houston and seemed to abandon using him after the first couple of drives.  As expected, the Ravens began the game quickly with two methodical drives that involved both Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce, and both drives ended in touchdowns.  Joe Flacco was 9 for 9 through this period and the Ravens appeared unstoppable.  That, however, didn't last long. 
    Suddenly the offense couldn't move the ball  and the defense had trouble stopping the Browns' brutally strong and talented rookie running back, Trent Richardson.  The Ravens, in fact, couldn't produce a single first down throughout the 2nd and 3rd quarter...so half the game.  Flacco's receivers couldn't haul in passes when he put the ball in the right place, and other times his throws appeared totally off target.  The Browns put together 4 scoring drives during that time period, and finally took a 15-14 lead towards the beginning of the 4th quarter.  The silver lining to all of this was that the Ravens had kept the Browns out of the endzone on all 5 scoring drives.  The Ravens bottled up Trent Richardson in the redzone and appeared to have displayed the return of the "bend-but-don't-break defense" that appeared to have been lost in almost every other game this season.  The Ravens, however, were still losing by a point, and after two quarters with virtually no offense, many Ravens fans were thinking that their team was on pace to lose this game by 1-4 points.  That, also, didn't last long.
     Joe Flacco took the field and proceeded to put together a drive with the aid of Anquan Boldin and some clutch running by Ray Rice.  Flacco finished the drive with a quick pass that Torrey Smith turned into a 19 yard touchdown with his fantastic acceleration and a move that probably left Joe Haden feeling a wee bit dizzy.  The Ravens were, at this point, up 20-15 and boldly went for a two point conversion to ensure that the Browns could not win the game simply with a touchdown and extra point.  Flacco floated a beautiful pass to a wide open Anquan Boldin in the endzone, and the Ravens went up 22-15.  The Ravens ended up extending the final lead to 25-15 after stopping the Browns on 4th down and quickly getting into field goal range for Justin Tucker to split the uprights with a 43 yard field goal.  To add insult to injury, Ed Reed interecepted poor Brandon Weeden to truly seal the deal and prevent a final desperate Browns drive.
     Let's go over what we learned from all of this.  One of the biggest difference between the first and second meetings of the Ravens and Browns was the play of Ellerbe in place of Ray Lewis.  With Ray Ray at the helm, the Ravens held Trent Richardson to 47 rushing yards.  Ray has been great against the run for just about his entire career, so this kind of effort isn't entirely surprising.  With Ray out, Trent Richardson ran for 105 yards during the second game.  Ellerbe, however, is known for his speed and skill in pass coverage.  Brandon Weeden threw for 320 yards on the Ravens in the first meeting of the season, but the Ravens held him to 176 yards 2 interceptions and no touchdowns last weekend.  Ellerbe's play along with the return of Suggs as a pass rusher appears to have made an incredible difference especially when you consider that this most recent game was on the road.  Ellerbe finished the game with 9 tackles and a sack.  He leads the team with 3.5 sacks in a season where sacks have been few and far between.  Cary Williams has also notched 4 interceptions and appears to be improving with each passing game.  Jimmy Smith looked better than he did against Houston, and Corey Graham looked solid at times.  Ed Reed missed two opportunities for interceptions that he would have completed easily in previous years, but made up for it with the aforementioned game ending pick.
    On top of improved defensive play, the Ravens offense showed that it can produce when it needs to.  Yes, the Browns have only won 2 games all season, but those two games came in the last 3 weeks and their defense looks dramatically more stout, especially in run defense.  The Browns had, after all, held the Chargers to two field goals only the week before, and San Diego's offense has its fair share of weapons.  It is, therefore, all the more impressive at how easily the Ravens were able to score their first two touchdowns on the road against this familiar divisional foe.  The game-winning touchdown drive also sealed Joe Flacco's eighth 4th quarter come-from-behind victory.  Ravens fans should be happy to know that Joe is cool and calm when his team needs him in the clutch, and getting the W is all that matters.
     Speaking of W's the Ravens have 6 of them through 8 weeks.  That's as good or better than all but one team in the AFC and most teams in the NFC.  The Ravens head back home this weekend to face a Raiders team that has only won a single road game all season and will be possibly missing its first and second string running backs.  The Ravens will get a chance to see how their improved defense performs at home against a quarterback that has had success against the Ravens in the past in Carson Palmer.  If the Ravens can dominate the Raiders and keep them below 17 points, then I will feel pretty good about upcoming home games against Steelers, Broncos, and Giants.  If the Ravens win the remainder of their home games and at least split their remaining road games then they'll finish 12-4 for a 3rd consecutive year and will likely win a first round bye in the playoffs.  I know the Ravens have a lot to work on, but they're 6-2 and they've shown they can improve and finally put up points on the road, so I'm excited at what the second half of the season has in store for us.  I will post my picks for week 10 tomorrow afternoon, so stay tuned.  Keep the faith, Baltimore.  As always GO RAVENS!!!

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