MONDAY NIGHT ANALYSIS AND RAVENS RECAP
This has been an unpredictable season for the NFL. In sharp contrast to 2011 and 2010, this season has seen the rise of a number teams with high powered defenses and strong running games. The Ravens and Steelers are no longer the best examples of this type of team in the NFL, and teams such as the 49ers, Seahawks, Texans, and Bears have demonstrated the ability to win games and in some cases even lead their respective divisions without a single Superbowl-winning quarterback among them. Last night demonstrated just how easily replaced the 49ers' starting quarterback Alex Smith was as Colin Kaepernick stepped in and threw for 243 yards and two touchdowns to beat the Bears 32-7. The 49ers are such a well balanced team stocked with tons of defensive stars and offensive weapons that all they need on any given day is a reasonably sound quarterback to win games. It reminds me a bit of the Ravens for the last decade. They had pro-bowlers almost everywhere you looked, but mediocre or poor quarterback play. Then they acquired Steve McNair who performed admirably though not at an elite level (he only threw for 3051 yards during his lone full season with the Ravens) and suddenly they went 13-3 during the regular season.
You may have been as shocked as I was to see the 49ers run roughshod over the vaunted Bears defense last night, but the more I thought about it, the less it surprised me. First, playing in Candlestick Park is never easy for a visiting team. The 49ers have a great home crowd, and thus, a great homefield advantage. Beyond that, the Bears defense is the same as that of the 49ers. The Bears defense has found success because of turnovers. Turnovers are a great thing for any defense to excel at creating, but they're not a statistic that a team can reliably count on. The Bears certainly haven't been lucky as they've consistently created turnovers all season long to lead the NFL with 36. That does not mean, however, that they can always count on other teams to fumble the ball or throw interceptions. Last night was an example of what happens to the Bears defense when an opposing a team secures the football. In contrast, the 49ers are just about the best in the league at suffocating opposing offenses with vicious pass rushers (Alson Smith) and powerful run stuffers (Navarro Bowman and Patrick Willis). The 49ers have only forced 14 turnovers on the season with 5 interceptions and 9 forced fumbles, but they have held opposing quarterbacks to 182.9 yards per game, and opposing teams to 94.3 yards per game on the ground.
Aside of defense, the 49ers simply have more offensive weapons than the Bears. Both teams started back-up quarterbacks, but Kaepernick had Vernon Davis, Mario Manningham, and Michael Crabtree at his disposal and the Bears' quarterback, Jason Campbell, had only Brandon Marshall. The 49ers also outclassed the Bears in the running department as Frank Gore averaged 4.6 yards per carry in contrast to Matt Forte of the Bears with 3 yards per carry. As with just about any defense, the longer they're on the field, the worse they perform. The Bears offense could not sustain drives for almost the entire game, and that resulted in a totally exhausted Bears defense that most likely had little energy and explosion that typically results in the creation of turnovers. In fact, the Bears usual starting Quarterback, Jay Cutler, has a curve of success over the course of each game that proves condusive to keeping the defense well rested and ready to make plays. At the beginning of November, Cutler led the NFL with a forth quarter QB rating of 132 and a 73.9 completion percentage. His average quarterback rating in the first quarter was less than half of that and it increased by leaps an bounds with each successive quarter. This worked perfectly as it meant the offense took over games late to give the defense a break. Fast forward to last night and Jason Campbell simply couldn't duplicate that type of success. The 49ers proved a more complete team in every phase of the game and totally dominated a Bears team that desperately needs its starting QB back.
With all of that said, the Bears are still 7-3 and they remain contenders for the playoffs and Superbowl. The NFC only has one team with more than 7 wins, and that team, the Atlanta Falcons, has shown that even poor teams can stand toe to toe with them play games that come right down to the wire. On the AFC side, the Texans are still leading the conference with 9 wins, but they also have shown their vulnerablility as they narrowly beat a team with only a single win and allowed that team to score 37 points on their highly touted defense in an overtime nailbiter on Sunday afternoon. The team with the second best record in the AFC is the Ravens. They're the only team in the NFL with 8 wins, and won a defensive battle against the Steelers on Sunday night to solidify their spot atop the AFC North. I've read, however, a startling number of fans and commentators describe the Ravens as "pretenders" or "worse than their record suggests" as a result of the disparity between the quality of play on the road and at home. This disparity is quite apparent as the Ravens offense has scored an average 36.8 points per game, but that very same offense has only managed 16.6 points on the road. Fortunately for the Ravens, 16.6 points per game on the road has been enough to give them a winning road record of 3-2 that could easily be 4-1 if not for a bogus penalty from replacement referees that nullified what would have been a game-winning touchdown in week two against the Eagles.
When you hear Ravens players and staff comment on their offensive woes on the road, they often try to suggest that there is really no good reason why their offense doesn't work nearly as well on the road as it does in M and T Bank Stadium. They chalk it up to execution problems and not having a home crowd behind them. This is partly true, but it's also partly a total crock. Yes, it's always great to have a strong home crowd behind you, and yes the Ravens appear to have execution problems on the road, but it's quite clear that Cam Cameron and the rest of the coaching staff are totally oblivious as to WHY there are such problems executing on the road. Anyone who watched Sunday night's game could see glaring issues in the game plan, not the execution, of the Ravens offense. The offensive line did have trouble opening up holes for Ray Rice, and Joe Flacco appeared off the mark on a number of throws, but the biggest issue appeared to be the routes that Cam Cameron's plays required of the receivers. In situations where the Ravens needed only 2, 4, or 7 yards, Cameron had the Ravens wideouts running deep routes. This total lunacy as the Steelers excel at taking away the deep pass and are far more vulnerable to quick passes on short and intermediate routes. The Ravens such shorter routes extremely well last year and converted many 3rd and even on some critical 4th downs in Pittsburgh to sustain drives and get into the endzone. Completing these short and intermediate passes ultimately opened things up for the deep ball late in the game and ultimately led to the dramatic late game touchdown pass to Torrey Smith.
The Ravens will fortunately not have to face another elite defense on the road during the rest of the regular season. They may, however, have to play on the road at some point in the playoffs, and such a game could very easily be against the Texans. The Ravens simply have to tweak their game plan on the road and put together dominant wins against the likes of the Chargers, Redskins, and Bengals and continue to handle business at home in order to change the minds of those who consider them "pretenders" rather than Superbowl contenders. Now lets get to the WEEK 12 POWER RANKINGS!!
WEEK 12 NFL POWER RANKINGS
I generally see little point in ranking all 32 teams as it's difficult and trivial to try to argue that one bad team is slightly worse or better than another. With that said, I'll rank the top 12 teams as that is the number of teams that advance to the playoffs. Mind you that these are power rankings, not simply a list of teams ranked by record, so dont' be surprised when some teams get outranked by other with less wins and more losses. I take injuries, strength of schedule, and current performance level into account with these. I place less stock in overall record as this season saw a good number of losses for great teams during the first month under the watch of replacement referees. Enjoy!
1. HOUSTON TEXANS- The Texans have shown their vulnerability a few times this season, but only one of those times has resulted in a loss. Even a close win over a bad team such as the Jaguars is still a a win. The Jaguars will also be a tough team to beat going forward if Chad Henne can continue to play at that level. The remainder of the regular season will be a big test for the Texans as they play 4 of their next 6 games on the road including difficult matchups with the Patriots and Colts.
2. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS- The 49ers may have just got a lot better last night when they started Colin Kaepernick at quarterback. He looked athletic, mobile, and accurate enough to take this team to the next level. On top of that, he did so against a typically dominant Bears defense. I have a STRONG hunch we'll see these guys in the NFC Championship game.
3. ATLANTA FALCONS- I'm not usually sold on the Falcons despite great regular season statistics and record. It is, however, impossible to argue with 9-1 as there are no easy teams to beat in the NFL. The Falcons have faced only one team all season that currently has a winning record (the Broncos) and that team had not yet found its offensive rhythm at the time. The Falcons will have plenty of chances to prove themselves as they face the red-hot Buccaneers twice, the Saints again, the Giants, and the Lions in Detroit for the remainder of the regular season. I have a feeling they'll lose at least 2 more games during that stretch though.
4. DENVER BRONCOS- Yes this team has 3 losses, but Peyton Manning has taken charge of the offense after a rocky start, and the Broncos defense is strong enough and creates enough turnovers to give the future hall-of-famer plenty of opportunities to score. This ranking could change rapidly, however, as Willis McGahee will not play for the rest of the regular season with a torn MCL. We'll have to see how Denver is able to play without him against the Chiefs and Buccaneers over the next two weeks. They might have been my choice for #1 had it not been for this major blow to their running game.
5. BALTIMORE RAVENS- There may be a number of you who disagree with this ranking. You might think their road performances warrant them a lower ranking, but the Ravens are rapidly improving on defense despite major injuries, and they could get a lot better with the return of Pernell McPhee this week. There's also a possibility that James Ihedigbo will be an improvement over an injured Ed Reed. Ed has had a tough season with a torn labrum since week 3, and it's possible that James could provide added speed and power because of his health and youth though he won't command the same respect from opposing QBs that #20 always does. Sunday's matchup against the Chargers will prove if the Ravens are really deserving of this ranking.
6. GREEN BAY PACKERS- The Packers have won their last 5 games. They had an impressive beat down of the Texans in the game following Brian Cushings' ACL tear. Since then, however, they've failed to really dominate lesser teams. This is not the high-flying Packers team of 2011, but they're winning games and that's all you can ask for in the NFL. They head to the Meadowlands this week to face a Giants team that knocked them out of the playoffs last season. I expect the Packers to win this game, but if they don't, I doubt they'll go far in the playoffs as they have a virtually nonexistant running game that reders them once again one dimensional on offense.
7. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- The Patriots might be ranked higher except that they're a lot like the Ravens in that they occassionally put on an offensively dominant performance but then barely squeak by lesser teams such as the Bills and Jets. Add to that the major loss of Rob Gronkowski to a broken arm and suddenly this team could be in trouble as they head for a Thanksgiving showdown with the Jets in the Meadowlands. The Patriots will be without Bolden because of his suspension for testing positive for PEDs and of course without Gronk, but they still have enough weapons to win this game and climb the rankings.
8. CHICAGO BEARS- The Bears are 7-3, but I believe they'll fall off the map with the remainder of their schedule. They have 4 tough divisional matchups left and they could easily lose 4 or 5 of their final 6 games to finish 10-6 or 9-7. They win most likely get a wildcard spot, but this team needs to re-establish a running game to convince me that they're still Superbowl contenders. Maybe I'm being too hard on them...
9. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS- The Saints are only 5-5, but all 5 of their wins have come in the last 6 games. The Saints have to play the 49ers, the Falcons in Atlanta, the Giants in New York, the Buccaneers, the Cowboys in Dallas, and the Panthers. If they can win 4 or 5 of those last 6 games, they could secure a wildcard spot, but I'm still not sold on them as a legitimate playoff contender as they fare poorly in bad weather conditions.
10. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS- This team continues to impress me week after week. After losing 3 of their first 4 games, the Bucs have won 5 of their last 6 to improve to 6-4 on the year. They have done this by running the ball and stopping the run with the leagues best rush defense. Josh Freeman has been on fire with over 2500 passing yards and 21 touchdowns. Doug Martin has exactly 1000 rushing yards so far and is averaging 5.1 yards per carry. The Bucs' glaring weakness is their 32nd ranked pass defense, and that will be tested to the fullest extent as the Bucs still have to face such pass-heavy offenses as the Saints, Broncos, and Falcons (twice). I believe, however that there's a good chance they'll win 3 or maybe even 4 of their last 6 games to possibly secure a wildcard spot.
11. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS- Andrew Luck has impressed me a lot this season. He has stepped in and performed far better than two more experienced veterans were able to do with mostly the same team last season. The Colts have had to deal with the temporary loss of their head coach due to cancer treatment, and they've faced a good number of tough opponents thus far in their schedule, but getting so beat down by the Patriots showed that this team still has work to do.
12. PITTSBURGH STEELERS- I really hate this team and I hate putting them on this list. I do, however, have to acknowledge just how good this team is with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger. The problem is that he's not currently healthy, and the Steelers could easily lose their next two games in a row while they wait for him to return and fall to 6-6. Assuming that Ben gets healthy, however, the Steelers could then proceed to win out their final 4 games to get to a 10-6 record that will likely secure them a wildcard spot. They're better without Troy Polamalu as he's a total liability in coverage and not much of a tackler anymore. The Steelers also run the ball and stop the run well and that will make them a dangerous team if they can make it to the playoffs. They probably won't win much starting Charlie Batch though...
We shall see this week just which teams are truly deserving of their spots on this list. I only hope the Ravens can improve to 9-2 going into their big home showdown with the Steelers. I hope everyone has a happy Thanksgiving, and make sure to watch plenty of football! AS ALWAYS GO RAVENS!!!
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