ESPN's Skip Bayless was at it again. He discredited the Ravens' 9-2 season and stated it to be "fraudulent" as the Ravens only barely beat the Patriots, Cowboys, Chiefs, Chargers, and Steelers. The problem with this logic is that many great teams in the NFL have numerous games in which they barely beat poor or average teams. No great teams simply dominate every single game they play start to finish in this era of football. By Skip's logic, the 2008 Steelers were fraudulent after only barely squeaking by the Ravens twice in the regular season. Or what about the 2007 Patriots? They were one of the greatest scoring offenses and most dominant regular season teams of all time, but they only barely beat a losing Ravens team 27-24, the Eagles 31-28, and finished the season with a 38-35 win over the eventual Superbowl champ Giants. Or what about both teams that are currently tied at 10-1 for the best record in the NFL? Seven of the ten Falcons wins have been by a touchdown or less, and the Houston Texans won their last two games in overtime against losing teams...hell, the first of those two games was at home against a team with only a single win on the season up to that point!
The fact is that you could run down the list of other supposedly elite teams and you'll find close games and even losses to mediocre teams. The Patriots, for example, only barely beat the Bills 37-31, they only barely beat the Jets in overtime in Foxboro (though they certainly made up for it the second time around). Then there's the 49ers who barely beat the Seahawks 13-6, tied the loser Rams 24-24, got absolutely destroyed by the Giants 26-3, and lost handedly to a Vikings team that ranks 30th in the NFL in passing yards per game. Lastly we come to Skip's precious Steelers. The Steelers aren't 9-2, but a lot of people will blame that on Big Ben's absence. In Big Ben's presence, however, the Steelers only barely beat an Eagles team with a decimated offensive line, they lost to a losing Titans team 26-23, beat the Bengals by a touchdown, squeaked by the then slumping Giants, and lost to the Oakland Raiders 34-31. Then, with Ben out the Steelers lost to the Ravens 13-10 in Pittsburgh and then lost in embarrassing fashion to the Browns last week in Cleveland.
The point is that the nature of the NFL is such that teams do what it takes to win games. Sometimes teams have decisive victories, but often times victories are gained by a touchdown, a field goal, or just a single point. Skip denounced the Ravens for only barely beating the Patriots...but it's the Patriots. I'm sure he didn't denounce the Patriots last year when they barely beat the Ravens after a missed field goal that would have sent the game into overtime. The point is that the Patriots won that playoff game. They didn't cheat or get bogus calls in their favor. This season, the Ravens beat the Patriots...just barely with the closest field goal I've ever seen that has ever been deemed to be good. Whether you win by an inch or a mile, however, you did better than the team you were up against in the end, and that means a big fat W. I really think the public needs to skip Bayless.
With all of that said, one cannot simply look at numerical wins and losses when deciding the order of power rankings. The analyst must take into account scores, opponents, current injuries, and recent levels of performance to accurately rank teams from week to week. It's not an exact science, more just a reaction. Power rankings mean absolutely nothing in deciding playoff seeding so it's all just for fun. Enjoy!
WEEK 13 NFL POWER RANKINGS
1. 49ERS- I put the 49ers at the top of this list not because they have the best record or even the second best record in the league. They don't. Their current ranking is based on how the 49ers have played since they began starting Colin Kaepernick at quarterback. The 49ers absolutely flattened the vaunted Bear's defense during a 32-7 win in week 11, and they soundly beat the Saints 31-21 in New Orleans. The Saints had looked quite strong recently winning 5 out of their last 6 before facing the 49ers at home. Kaepernick isn't RG3 or Andrew Luck, but he's probably more talented than Alex Smith. Whatever he is, he's good enough to push this team to a new level where it dominates good teams in tough situations. He'll be tested against Patriots and Seahawks in a few weeks, so the 49ers will have plenty of opportunity to defend this ranking and a achieve a high seed in the playoffs.
2. PATRIOTS- The Patriots have won 7 out of their last 8 games, and have recently put on a scoring clinic as they've averaged 47.5 points per game in their last 4 games. Yes, they have 3 losses, and yes they have a poor pass defense, but what recently impressed me with this team was their ability to lose two of their most important offensive players (Logan Mankins and Rob Gronkowski) without seeing even a slight dip in their level of play. This Patriots team is 10th in the league in rushing yards allowed which helps to preserve game clock when they need it and give the Pats more opportunities to drive down the field and score. They are also 6th in rushing offense which makes them a far more balanced and dangerous offense than they were last season. On top of all of this, they have averaged 38.3 points on the road this season which will make them probably the most dangerous road team in the AFC down the stretch. I hate the Patriots and I'm happy Ravens beat them, but, man, they have my respect.
3. FALCONS- The Falcons are 10-1 and I'm sure many of you think they should be ranked a spot or two higher in light of that. I would agree if it weren't for their strength of schedule. The Falcons have only played two teams this entire season that currently possess winning records. They edged the Broncos early on in the season when the Broncos were struggling to find their footing and get adjusted to Peyton Manning, and they came back to beat the now 6-5 Tampa Bay Buccanneers this weekend 24-23. With that said, they only have a single loss to their division rivals (the Saints), and they have a chance tonight to avenge that loss and possibly move back up to #2 or #1 on next week's power rankings depending on the score.
4. RAVENS- The Ravens haven't blown teams out on the road like the Patriots, and their offense has truly struggled away from M and T Bank Stadium. They have, however, won 9 games and have only been convincingly beaten once. Most recently, the Ravens defense has been the best in the league in the last 4 weeks following their bye. The Ravens defense, like the Patriots offense, has found ways to become and stay effective despite the loss of two of their key players (Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb). Joe Flacco has been labelled as inconsistent, and many have stated that the Ravens never truly established an identity. I disagree wholeheartedly. The Ravens identity is a team that is tough to beat because of its ability to win in different ways. They can win in an offensive shootout against the Patriots when the defense struggled early, they can win in a defensive struggle against the Steelers when the offense was having a hard time finding its rhythm. Most importantly, Joe Flacco has, once again, displayed an uncanny ability to put together game winning drives. He led impressive drives to beat the Patriots, the Browns, and the Chargers, When the pressure is on, Joe Flacco goes off. That's the Ravens identity, they find ways to win.
6. TEXANS- The Texans used to be the strongest team in the league. At 10-1, there's an argument to be made that they're still the strongest team in the league. Recently, however, their defense has fallen from the elite status that it held not long ago. They went into overtime in the last two games against losing teams and they legitimately should have lost the most recent of those two overtime wins. The Texans have a tough schedule going forward. They have to play the Patriots in Foxboro and two games against the Colts. I believe they're lose two out of those three games and only further justify this ranking or possibly a lower one. I know they beat the Ravens, but recently the Texans have displayed serious vulnerability that much better teams will almost certainly exploit. Their offense was still strong enough to keep them in the last two games, but that was against two rather poor defenses. The Texans better revamp their defense quickly or their impressive season will end in disaster.
6. BRONCOS- The Broncos should possibly be higher on this list than the Texans, but I said before that I wanted to see how they would do without Willis McGahee. Without Willis, the Broncos appeared far less dominant in their 8 point win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Peyton Manning and an elite defense that has a knack for creating turnovers makes this team a unit that should still be feared by everyone they play, but they lost a great weapon when the former Raven went down for the season with an injury. This offense is now officially one dimensional, but the one dimension it possesses is still led by the greatest quarterback of our time.
7. BEARS- Jay Cutler's return confirmed my contention from a couple of weeks ago that his team's offense and defense are largely dependent on his presence. This team rises and falls with its quarterback. Their 28-10 win against the Vikings was a nice bounce-back win after losing to two of the league's top teams in a row, but it's not enough to put them into the top 5 on this list. Another solid win against the Seahawks this weekend and then a home win against the Packers in a few weeks will solidify this team's place in the playoffs and move them way up in my rankings.
8. GIANTS- The Giants are racing back up this list after a total beatdown of the Packers following their bye week. This team is up and down at times, but I put them at 7th on this list because of their ability to absolutely dominate other NFC playoff contenders. Eli and the G-men seem to be able to turn it on against the toughest of opponents when it really counts. Expect this team to win at least a playoff game or two.
9. PACKERS- This team looked unstoppable in the regular season last year with a 15-1 record. They were then soundly thumped by the Giants in the playoffs and haven't been the same team since. At 7-4 they're still a contender, and Aaron Rodgers is still having a solid season. The Packers defense has looked poor, especially without Clay Matthews, but the offense is about to get one big weapon back this week with the return of Greg Jennings. I expect them to move up my rankings down the stretch, but I'll always be wary of putting them too high without a solid running game and defense.
10. BENGALS- This team has quietly found its rhythm after a rather rocky start. The Bengals' defense is now 8th in the NFL in average passing yards allowed per game. The Bengals have won their last 3 straight games in impressive fashion by beating down a Giants team that the Steelers only barely edged a week earlier, handling a sorry Raiders team, and stomping a Chiefs team on the road that both the Ravens and Steelers struggled to edge. Andy Dalton has, during this time, been extremely efficient as he has scored in all but two of his trips to the redzone. This is a team that could beat out the Steelers for a wildcard spot, and shock the world with two consecutive playoff appearances for the first time in decades for the Bengals.
11. COLTS- This team will likely win 3 out of it's last 5 games to finish 10-6 and secure a wildcard spot. They'll beat the Titans at home, the Chiefs on the road, and they'll either beat the Lions on the road or the Texans at home. Almost all of their wins have been extremely close or else I'd have them ranked higher. Andrew Luck has turned out to be everything that he was built up to be leading up to this season. He now has more passing yards than any other rookie QB in history by this point in the season. I doubt he'll win more than a single playoff game if he wins one at all, but Luck is a QB that the Colts will be able to build around exactly the way they did with Manning. Fear this man.
12. BUCCANEERS- I have to admit that I was sad to see the Bucs lose by a point to the Falcons last week. I still believe they're a good team though, and I believe they have a great shot at proving it in Denver on Sunday. Peyton may feast on their pass defense, but they'll run the ball well enough to limit his opportunities...wait...I gotta save those predictions for tomorrow. Ok well I still have faith in the Bucs as a top 12 team, but they've got a lot of tough opponents coming up and they could very easily miss the playoffs.
THURSDAY NIGHT PREDICTION
SAINTS AT FALCONS- The Saints edged the Falcons last time these two teams met, but that was in New Orleans. I still believe this game will be close, but the Falcons definitely have a powerful homefield advantage whereas the Saints will no longer have theirs tonight. Drew Brees is clearly better than Matt Ryan by leaps and bounds, but the Saints' defense won't be enough to stop the Falcons at home. Matt Ryan has been pretty shakey lately though...hmm I want to say the Saints will upset a Falcons team that hasn't looked particularly dominant recently, but I just can't bet against the Falcons at home. I really hope I'm wrong about this. MY PREDICTION: FALCONS 33-31.
UPDATE ON BIG BEN
If you have not already read, Ben Roethlisberger is reportedly still experiencing pain and difficulty throwing the football. This upsets me as I was looking forward to seeing him suit up and get spanked by Terrell Suggs on live TV. Ben left open the possibility that he could play, but didn't sound optimistic as when he was asked if the biggest concern was pain or arm strength, the quarterback replied "both." There's nothing I want more than a Ravens win, but that win would be oh so much sweeter if Skip Bayless and the rest of the Steelers Nation had no excuse as to why their team lost. Even Troy Polamalu appears as though he'll return for this game, but I actually believe that'll be to the detriment of the Steelers secondary as it has performed far better without him getting burnt in coverage and trucked by Ray Rice. The Steelers will probably say that Ben will be a gametime decision, but I have a feeling that we'll know who is going to play definitively by tomorrow. It sounds pretty certain that the Steelers don't wanna ruin Ben's recovery in a game that they will have little chance of winning no matter who starts. It would be better for the Steelers to take an almost certain loss and have a much healthier Ben return next week than to have Ben risk getting reinjured by a team that has a history of physical aggression towards him. Fun fact: Terrell Suggs has more sacks on Ben Roethlisberger than any entire NFL team. Suggs put it perfectly, "God can have his soul, but his ass belongs to ME." Enjoy the Thursday night game, everyone. And as always GO RAVENS!!
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