Monday, September 30, 2013

WEEK 4 RAVENS REACTION: WHAT HAPPENED??

     Jamison Hensley wrote yesterday that the Ravens' loss to the Bills shouldn't be put on the shoulders of Joe Flacco.  After Joe threw 5 interceptions, that's a tough argument to make, but I actually think he's correct.  One only has but to take a look at the circumstances surrounding Joe Flacco's performance in this particular loss to get an idea of where the blame truly lies. 
     The Ravens running game is currently at its worst state during the Harbaugh era if not ever.  The Ravens only rushed for 24 yards yesterday, and that's not for lack of talent.  The Ravens have two talented tailbacks in Rice and Pierce with the best fullback in the game leading the way in Vonta Leach.  The Ravens are also returning 4 out of 5 pieces of an offensive line that performed outstandingly through the playoffs and in the Super Bowl last season.  So why can't this cast make anything happen on the ground?  The Ravens hired Juan Castillo to be their "run game coordinator" and this was clearly a bad idea.  The idea was almost certainly an effort to replace the Ravens' current line coach, Tony Moehler, who had a DUI in the not too distant past.  Castillo, however, has changed the Ravens' blocking schemes and his system simply isn't working.  If the Ravens want to put their ground attack back on course, they must immediately revert to last year's system or suffer a season of consequences.  His title is "run game coordinator", but somehow I feel Castillo is simply just acting as the offensive line coach at this point and that's taking its toll on pass protection for Flacco.
    Flacco often had little time to throw yesterday as he frequently found the pocket rapidly closing around him.  Joe took many hard hits and its actually impressive that he threw for over 350 yards even if he DID throw 5 interceptions.  Without pass protection how can anyone expect Joe Flacco to execute with precision through the air?  One could point to the fact that Gino Gradkowski's performance has been subpar thus far (and there's no denying that)  but I still believe the blame falls on Castillo.  There are simply too many pro bowl caliber offensive lineman on this team to believe that pure player error is to blame for a lack of pass protection. 
     If poor pass blocking and a non-existant running game aren't enough to make Flacco into a 5 pick player, then a massive number of injuries to the Ravens receiving corps certainly pushed him over the edge.  Torrey Smith leads the AFC in receiving yards (435) and is playing at an unquestionably high level.  Aside of Smith, however, the Ravens quickly found themselves without Marlon Brown (thigh injury) Deonte Thompson (concussion) and Brandon Stokely (groin).  Joe was left with Tandon Doss, Ed Dickson, Dallas Clark, and of course Torrey Smith.  Dickson is truly worthless as a pass-catcher a this point, Dallas Clark is physically timid and inconsistent, and Tandon Doss simply doesn't have hands.  I would say the Ravens want to force Doss to make the plays they hoped he'd make after drafting him in the 4th round, but they simply ran out of other options yesterday as everyone else became injured.  This team will shortly have an overabundance of wide receivers as Brown, Thompson, Stokley, and Jacoby Jones all return to health in the next 2 weeks, but the Ravens might be in serious trouble next week in Miami without consistent targets to whom Flacco can throw the ball.
     At this point it should be clear that there are far bigger problems than simply Joe Flacco on this football team.  He'll get credited for 5 interceptions in week 4 and will have to largely shoulder the blame for the loss, but Joe simply can't be blamed for his team's lack of ability to run the ball, lack of healthy receiving weapons, and lack of pocket protection from the offensive line.  One team simply can't be lacking in all of those areas and expect a great performance from their quarterback regardless of how good he might be.  The Steelers are going through a similar situation right now and simply can't win a game.  Let's be thankful that the Ravens are not the Steelers.  This situation is correctable, but I wonder if the Ravens are willing to take control away from Castillo in the way they took it away from Cam Cameron last season.  This is a moment where Harbaugh must once again tell an old friend (Juan Castillo) that his system simply doesn't work for the Baltimore Ravens.  Next week will be quite telling.  If the Ravens can bounce back offensively on the road against a hot Miami Dolphins team then I'll say they're back on track.  If the Ravens lose and the offense puts up another abysmal performance, then I truly fear for the Ravens' season.

DON'T LOSE FAITH BALTIMORE, WE'VE HAD THESE GAMES BEFORE

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!! 

Monday, September 23, 2013

RAVENS-TEXANS REACTION

     No one was happier to be wrong about the outcome of yesterday's Ravens game than I.  After giving up a record high 49 points and 7 touchdowns in Week 1, the Ravens haven't allowed a single touchdown since.  The Ravens have, in fact, allowed only 15 points in the past two games combined.  Terrell Suggs has 3 sacks in 3 games, and the Ravens pass-rush has amassed a total of 11 sacks which puts the Ravens on pace for a total of 58 sacks for the year.  The Ravens certainly didn't shut down Arian Foster, but they limited him to a mere 54 yards on the ground.  Daryl Smith is a huge physical improvement over a broken Ray Lewis, and the Ravens redzone defense once again looks like the best in the NFL in the past two weeks.  Soooo why am I still a bit concerned?
     The Ravens offense simply hasn't clicked, and that's not at all surprising.  Dallas Clark had some nice catches yesterday, but he simply looks old, slow, and timid.  Flacco has yet to take advantage of Marlon Brown's height.  At 6'5", Brown is just as tall Dennis Pitta, and there's almost no defensive back in the league that should be able to win in jump ball situations over the young receiver.  I'd like to see Joe loft the ball up high to Brown to exploit that advantage in height.  Overall, Joe hasn't fully developed chemistry with his new targets, and the style of his passes seems to have changed drastically from last season.  Joe seldom winds up and launches his patented bombs downfield to the likes of Torrey Smith.  Perhaps Jim Caldwell is attempting to be more conservative while Joe gets in synch with his receiving corps and avoid interceptions since Torrey Smith frequently finds himself in double coverage.  Whatever the reason, the Ravens have struggled to move the ball offensively in the last two first halves of games, and if they hope to beat top tier teams they'll need to do far better.
     The passing game isn't where the Ravens want it to be, but the running game is far worse.  The Ravens rank 25th in the league in rushing yards per game.  Ray Rice is injured, but even before he was injured the Ravens struggled to run the football.  The Ravens offensive line is almost totally the same as the fantastic unit that won a Super Bowl only months ago.  The only different piece is Gino Gradkowski.  Could Gradkowski really be that much worse than Matt Birk or are there schematic reasons that the Ravens can't open holes for two premier tailbacks?  The Ravens even hired Juan Castillo for a position that I had never heard of before this year: run game coordinator.  Perhaps Castillo is the factor that has led to a drop-off in rushing production. 
     Despite the obvious weaknesses in the Ravens offense, there is light at the end of the tunnel.  The Ravens passing attack may open back up with the return of Jacoby Jones in the next 2-3 weeks.  Deonte Thompson may also return to the field soon, and the return of either or both of these speedy wideouts will help to stretch opposing defenses and allow Flacco to more frequently target Torrey Smith.  Ray Rice should also be back next week to face a Buffalo Bills defense that has allowed the 3rd most rushing yards of any team in the NFL this month.  The Bills pass defense also ranks in the bottom half of the league in yards allowed, so perhaps this will be a game where the Ravens offense finds success in all phases.  The Bills have run the football well thus far, but the Ravens rank 4th in run defense and should be able to handle Fred Jackson and a somewhat injured C.J. Spiller. 
     Offense and defense aside, the biggest surprise of yesterday's Ravens game came from special teams.  Tandon Doss has been criticized often in the past two seasons for never developing into the possession receiver that the Ravens and their fans had hoped for after originally being handpicked by Joe Flacco.  Doss' success yesterday, however, had little to do with receiving passes.  Doss returned a punt for 82 yards and a touchdown.  I don't expect this to be a regular occurrence for the receiver, but it certainly was a pleasant surprise considering the Ravens cut him at the end of the preseason.
     The score of any game is always the bottom line.  If the Ravens win, whether it be by shutting down a team with suffocating defense or dazzling fans with explosive offense, the win is all that matters.  Both of the Ravens wins thus far have been at home in Baltimore, so next week's road game will be a decent test to see how the impressive Ravens defense performs on the road after being embarrassed in Denver in Week 1.  Ray Rice is no longer required for the Ravens to beat AFC contenders, but it certainly would be nice to have #27 back in action next weekend.  For now, we should celebrate a dominant win over a team that spanked the Ravens up and down the field last season, but there's no question that the Ravens have a lot of work to do if they plan to earn another postseason berth.  Stay tuned tomorrow for full NFL Week 3 recap and reaction!

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!! 
     
    

Saturday, September 21, 2013

WEEK 3 NFL PREDICTIONS

     NOTE: I began writing these earlier in the week before Thursday night before the Chiefs Eagles game had taken place. I apologize to my readers for the delay on publishing this week's predictions.  Won't happen again, folks.

     Week 3 doesn't have as many major rival matchups as Week 2, but as I said in my last post, Week 3 will reveal much about typically middle of the pack teams that have gotten off to a hot start such as Miami, and Kansas City.  Are these teams as good as their record suggests, or have they simply not faced tough enough competition yet?  We will know soon enough as the Chiefs travel to Philly to face an Eagles team with an explosive offense, and the Dolphins host a Falcons team with an extremely high powered offense of its own.  This week will also reveal much about teams that were competitive in the not too distant future but are currently floundering such as the Redskins, Steelers, Giants, Vikings, and even the Buccaneers.  Week 3 will also reveal if teams such as Houston, New England, Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Chicago are still actually playoff caliber teams as most of their wins have been unconvincingly close even against mediocre competition.
      The theme of this season through the first two weeks is that exactly one team has looked dominant in the NFL: THE DENVER BRONCOS.  The Broncos, however, just lost their starting left tackle for the season, so we'll see if that brings them back down to earth.  Other than the Broncos, no one has looked totally dominant through two weeks.  I would have said the 49ers after Week 1, but they were just obliterated by the Seahawks.  I would have said the Seahawks look dominant after watching their Week 2 game, but let's not forget that they looked pedestrian against a horrible team in Week 1 on the road.  Maybe all of this simply means the NFL will be quite a bit less predictable and quite a bit MORE exciting this season.  Let's take a look at the Week 3 picks!

WEEK 3 NFL PREDICTIONS

 CHIEFS AT EAGLES- Homecoming for Andy Reid should be filled with booing because that's simply what Eagles fans do whether they're happy or sad.  Sometimes I think it's some sort of substitute for applause and cheering specific to that city.  This game features an impressive Chiefs defense against an impressive Eagles offense.  I don't believe the Chiefs have the aerial firepower it takes to take advantage of a poor Eagles secondary.  The Chiefs were able to edge the Cowboys in Kansas City, but they'll be significantly worse on the east coast.  This should still be at least somewhat close. EAGLES 30-24.

PACKERS AT BENGALS-  The Bengals defense is decent, but their offense simply won't be able to keep up with that of the Packers.  I would like to see this game become a shootout, but Andy Dalton simply hasn't shown that he's accurate enough yet to make this competitive.  PACKERS 28-20.

RAMS AT COWBOYS-  The Rams already beat the Cardinals on the road and played tough in their loss in Atlanta.  My first instinct was to give this win to the Cowboys, but sometime tells me that the Rams are going to take full advantage of a relatively weak Cowboys pass defense and squeak by here.  RAMS 27-24.

CHARGERS AT TITANS- This is a showdown between two teams of which I've yet to decide a solid opinion.  The Chargers' road win over the Eagles impressed me, but their collapse against the Texans in San Diego leaves me a bit uneasy about them.  Here's the problem: the Titans also lost an incredibly close game to the Texans and won a solid road game against the Steelers in Week 1.  The Titans have a better defense than the Chargers and will enjoy homefield advantage, so I'm going to have to give them an edge here, but this game could easily go either way.  TITANS 33-28.

BROWNS AT VIKINGS- No Brandon Weeden and no Trent Richardson.  VIKINGS 37-13.

BUCCANEERS AT PATRIOTS- There's a chance that Gronkowski suits up, but it's not a great chance.  Regardless, the Patriots won't lose this game.  PATRIOTS 17-14.

CARDINALS AT SAINTS-  The Saints should finally come alive in this one with a relatively soft Cardinals pass defense and that patented Saints homefield advantage.  SAINTS 35-21.

 LIONS AT REDSKINS- This is going to be a tough game for the Redskins, but ironically, it'll also be one of the most winnable games on an impossibly difficult schedule for them.  Sadly for Skins fans, this is a poor matchup as it features a high powered Lions passing attack against the Redskins' worst pass defense in the NFL.  I think this is a game the Redskins CAN win, but I simply don't see it happening.  I'll be rooting for them though. LIONS 34-28.

GIANTS AT PANTHERS- The Panthers don't have a strong enough pass defense to slow down the Giants.  The Panthers also don't have a potent enough passing attack to take advantage of a less-than-stellar Giants pass defense.  This will be close, but I gotta go with the G-Men on this one.  GIANTS 24-17.

TEXANS AT RAVENS-  It saddens me to say that this is the first time since I've been writing this blog that I actually don't think the Ravens will win.  I've never assumed the Ravens would go 16-0 in the regular season, but in the vast majority of weeks in the last 5 seasons I've always felt the Ravens were a strong team going into each game and always had a great shot at winning, especially at home.  The Ravens, however, are facing a team with a top 10 offense and the 3rd ranked pass defense in the league.  I don't believe the Ravens will have much success running the football without Ray Rice (no offense to Pierce, but he and Ray compliment each other and I don't think Pierce is going to gash the Texans on the ground).  The Texans' run defense is mediocre, but it doesn't NEED to be great tomorrow.  Jonathan Joseph will likely shut down Torrey Smith and the Ravens have no real tight ends on whom Joe Flacco can depend when receivers are struggling.  There is light at the end of the tunnel.  The Texans' starting left tackle is ruled out and that means a rather ferocious Ravens pass rush may find itself hitting Schaub early and often.  I think the defense will perform admirably, but if the offense can't sustain drives then the defense will ultimately grow tired.  Let's hope they prove me totally wrong. TEXANS 30-21.

FALCONS AT DOLPHINS- I'll be rooting hard for the Fins in this one.  The Falcons may have issues winning this game without Stephen Jackson.  The Falcons receiving corps is a bit banged up as well with Roddy White and Julio Jones both listed as questionable for Sunday.  I expect both receivers to play, but there's no way they're playing at 100%.  The Falcons also have pass defense near the bottom of the league as they've allowed an average of 346 yards per game through the air thus far.  I don't usually predict the Falcons to lose, but the Dolphins have looked good on the road against mediocre teams, I think they'll look great at home against a great team that is suffering through key injuries.  This will be a close one though. DOLPHINS 21-20.

 BILLS AT JETS- I've been quite impressed with both of these thus far, but Geno Smith's turnovers have me hesitant to pick the Jets in this contest.  BILLS 17-13.

COLTS AT 49ERS- Kudos to the Colts for acquiring Trent Richardson.  They, however, are about to get held down and beaten by a 49ers team furious at their public humiliation in Seattle last week.  The 49ers are a force at home and the Colts won't be able to stop the 49ers' offense. 49ERS 38-21.

JAGUARS AT SEAHAWKS- *Sigh* I hope they don't expect anyone to watch this one.  I...yeah this game just isn't worth explaining.  SEAHAWKS 49-9.

BEARS AT STEELERS-  Steelers can't protect Big Ben and the Bears are a strong team this year.  I only wish Urlacher was still healthy and playing in this one.  BEARS 19-10.

RAIDERS AT BRONCOS-  The Broncos have now lost two of their starting linemen for the season and there will be weeks where that will prove a major issue...not this week though.  BRONCOS 42-14.

     The timing of my completion of this list of predictions was quite poor.  I can only hope that some people go online on Sunday morning and get a chance to read this before the games begin at 1:00.  I sincerely hope the Ravens show they can step up and beat a quality team at home tomorrow or else this season is going to feel impossibly long.  Let's hope the Ravens receivers can hold on to the ball.

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!

 


 







Wednesday, September 18, 2013

WEEK 2 NFL REACTION

     I'm pleased to say that Week 2 of the NFL season went quite a bit better than Week 1 in regards to Purple Nightmare predictions.  I went 8-6 in my first batch of picks, but I went 14-2 over this past weekend.  This is a good sign as it took me over a month to really get a grasp on the true strength of each NFL team last year.  That, however, may have been due to unpredictable and uneven officiating from the replacement refs.  Thankfully, the 2013 season features zero replacement officials.
     Solid officiating and accurate predictions are certainly not the only things that made this a pleasant week in the NFL.  Any week in which the Ravens win and the Steelers lose is a good week.  The Ravens' first win of the season may not have been pretty or resounding, but wins over the Browns seldom are.  The Ravens, as usual, found themselves up against a pesky Browns team that played stout defense which effectively stuffed the Ravens rushing attack.  The Ravens, however, could have taken the lead early, but dropped passes once again plagued the team's patchwork receiving corps.  Marlon Brown dropped what would have been a spectacular touchdown grab in the first quarter.  Fortunately, Brown later made up for it with a successful touchdown reception in which he caught the ball and lunged for the endzone with his arm stretched out.
    One simply can't worry about the Ravens only beating the Browns 14-6.  The Ravens won the Super Bowl last year and barely beat the Browns each time they played them in the regular season--that's just how divisional games go.  I could go into great depth analyzing finer points of the Ravens-Browns game, but I've learned not to panic if the Ravens barely beat the Browns as it seems to have zero bearing on how they play against other NFL teams.  Let's move on to the rest of the league, shall we?  The Manning Bowl wasn't even close as the Broncos showed the world that they truly are a dominant team once again.  Who knows if this early regular season dominance will continue for the rest of the regular season or into the playoffs, but we must assume that the Broncos will win 12-14 games given their current state and Peyton Manning's track record of regular season success.  Ironically, that could spell doom for the Broncos as homefield advantage in the playoffs means weather well below freezing against teams that are quite well suited to handle such conditions including the Ravens and Patriots. 
     The outcome of the Broncos-Giants matchup likely surprised few people nationwide, but a game that proved far more interesting and maybe a little surprising for some was the Seahawks-49ers.  I predicted a Seahawks win, but I didn't anticipate another blowout reminiscent of that of last year in Seattle.  The Seahawks shut the 49ers down on offense and made Colin Kaepernick look like the relatively young, inexperienced QB he actually is.  It's not that Kaepernick is ineffective or inconsistent, but the Seattle defense is on an entirely different level when playing at home in front of that virtual wall of crowd noise.  This doesn't mean that the 49ers are a bad team as I'm sure they'll win plenty of games this season, but I did find one thing extremely alarming (though not surprising) if you're a 49ers fan.  Anquan Boldin had exactly one catch against the Seahawks.  He couldn't beat Richard Sherman off the line due to a comparative lack of speed and the extreme physicality that Sherman possesses to match that of Boldin.  In Baltimore, fans were all too aware of Boldin's tendency to simply disappear in some games while playing absolutely dominantly in others.  Few other teams possess cornerbacks as talented and physical as Sherman, but teams will use video of this game as a blueprint to shutting down an aging receiver that can potentially take over a game if he's not planned for correctly.
     Most of the rest of the NFL games of Week 2 went exactly as I expected, and the Bengals-Steelers game was no exception.   The Steelers lack of talent and depth at offensive line is nothing new, but this year the boys in black and yellow are particularly thin up front.  Beyond that, the Steelers allowed Mike Wallace to leave in free agency for the Miami Dolphins, and now their receiving corps looks to be one playmaker short of effective.  Even if Big Ben finds a way to extend plays with his sense of awareness and impressive footwork, he finds few open receivers and simply throws the ball away or gets buried by defenders.  The Steelers' lack of a running game has proven extremely apparent as this is essentially the worst statistical rushing attack since the 1930s for the franchise through the first two weeks of any season. 
     With all of that said, I wasn't particularly impressed with the Bengals.  Sure they won by a convincing 10 points, and divisional matchups are often close like that of the Browns and Ravens.  This, however, is a SEVERELY wounded Steelers team with a relatively inept offense and an aging defense.  How is it that the Bengals can't simply manage to blow them away at home?  The answer lies in the Bengals' young quarterback.  Andy Dalton came alive late in the game, but he appeared rather inaccurate for the first half especially on deep passes.  People always insist that A.J. Green is one of the most talented wide receivers in football, and maybe he is, but the Bengals will never fully take advantage of Green's speed if Andy Dalton can't accurately throw the ball deep down field to him.  The Ravens haven't yet hit their stride, and maybe they won't this season, but that may be the only thing working in favor of a Bengals team whose offensive leader appears to be its biggest question mark.  Dalton will have to make major improvements if the Bengals hope to get past the first round of the playoffs and the likes of the Houston Texans this season.
     The Houston Texans are not the same team that bullied its way to the top of power rankings through the first 9 games of last season.  They appear, instead, to be a lot more like the team that barely beat the Jaguars and Lions and allowed 26 points per game in their final 7 games of last season.  Don't look now, but the Texans have allowed an average of exactly 26 points per game through the first two weeks of the season as they barely squeaked by both the Chargers and Titans.  Are the Chargers and Titans that good or are the Texans just barely better than each of those teams?  This week should shed some light on that as the Texans go to Baltimore to face a franchise they've only beaten once in the history of their team.  The Texans will likely be without Andre Johnson (concussion) and left tackle Duane Brown.  That could leave the Texans with only DeAndre Hopkins and Owen Daniels as major receiving threats, but more importantly, Duane Brown's absence could leave the Texans extremely vulnerable to a revamped Ravens pass rush.  Only time will tell how the 2-0 Texans will be able to overcome a pair of major injuries in a hostile environment.
     One player who has clearly not totally overcome a major injury is Washington Redskins quarterback, Robert Griffin III.  I doubt anyone expected the Redskins to go into Green Bay and beat the Packers, but Griffin simply doesn't appear confident on his surgically repaired knee.  During Week 1 against the Eagles, Griffin seemed hesitant to step into throws and completed almost no passes in the first half of the game.  Yes, the Redskins battled back and may have even had a chance to win if they had recovered a late onside kick, but the two-week trend of falling dangerously behind their opponent and simply putting up points in garbage time will not win the Redskins games.  This week against the Lions will be a major test for RG3.  The young phenom must win this game or his team will have almost no hope by my calculations.  It's not that losing three games puts them too far behind to catch up in a 16 game season, but rest of the Redskins schedule is daunting to say the least.  Based on their first two weeks of the 2013 season, I judge there to be 4-5 winnable games at MOST for the Skins.  If they continue to play in this fashion, this could be a sorrowfully depressing year for a fanbase that had a lot to get excited about last season.  Could this be the fault of a head coach that won't step in again when its clear that his young quarterback isn't aware of his own physical limitations?
     Week 3 of the NFL may not have as many major matchups between playoff contenders as Week 2, but it may prove more revealing with regards to teams that have gotten off to good starts but haven't proven themselves against tough competition yet.  We get to see how the highly touted Bengals handle a high-powered Packers offense at home in Cincinnati, and we also get to find out whether or not the Dolphins are as good as their record suggests as they host the Falcons on Sunday afternoon.  Either the Ravens or Texans will prove they can overcome major injuries to beat a major AFC playoff contender, and the tomorrow night Andy Reid and his new team, the Chiefs, will travel to Philadelphia to face his old team, the Eagles, in a showdown that could reveal whether Andy Reid or Chip Kelly's new offense is more effective.  This week could also feature both the Redskins and Steelers overcoming the effects of injuries and winning their first game, orrrrrr both teams could simply continue their losing trends against two reasonably competitive teams (the Lions and Bears).  However Week 3 turns out, make sure to stay tuned, and DEFINITELY stay tuned as the Ravens take on the Texans at 1:00 on Sunday.

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
    
     
    

Friday, September 13, 2013

WEEK 2 NFL PREDICTIONS

     I must apologize for not publishing these picks earlier.  I know it doesn't count right now, but I absolutely picked New England to beat the Jets.  What I DIDN'T anticipate is that they would only beat the Jets by a field goal.  With that said, my current predictions record after week 1 is 8-6.  My record was hurt by the fact that I picked every single AFC North team to win...and they all lost.  It was only Week 1, however, so we all now have a much better idea of the current strength of each team after seeing them in full-speed NFL action.  Without further ado, here are the picks for Week 2:

WEEK 2 NFL PICKS

JETS AT PATRIOTS- I realize this prediction means absolutely nothing right now, but I originally decided this pick before realizing Vereen and Amendola definitely weren't playing for the Patriots.  I assumed, thus, that the Patriots would blow the Jets out.  They did not.  My pick was PATRIOTS 31-13.

 RAMS AT FALCONS-  I simply can't see the Rams pulling this off at Atlanta.  The Falcons have one of the best homefield advantages in the NFL, and Atlanta's offense will be using the Rams' former offensive weapon against them.  If Matt Ryan heats up, this one could get ugly for St. Louis.  FALCONS 28-17.

 PANTHERS AT BILLS-  Both of these teams suffered tough losses in Week 1 to teams that fans and analysts had only recently regarded as elite powerhouses.  It's tough to know if the Bills were really that good or if the Patriots were really that bad.  It's also tough to know if the Panthers were really that good or if the Seahawks are simply a poor road team as they were in the last regular season.  Homefield advantage must be what decides this is a situations of this nature.  BILLS 20-17.

VIKINS AT BEARS- The Vikings don't play defense particularly well on the road, and the Bears consistently scored an impressive defense last week against Cincy.  It's a divisional game which makes it tough to predict, but Jay Cutler's consistent late game heroics matched with Brandon Marshall's impressive physicality will be no match for even the greatest running back in the league.  BEARS 28-23.

REDSKINS AT PACKERS-  I'll give RG3 credit for putting up a fight in the second half against the Eagles, but the Skins simply don't have what it takes to match the Packers offensively in Green Bay.  PACKERS 35-27.

DOLPHINS AT COLTS-  The Dolphins impressed me with an opening road win, and ordinarily I'd say that Andrew Luck deserves some respect at home against a team with a poor record from last season, but the Colts don't look the same without Bruce Arians as their offensive coordinator, and they just lost their first string running back, Vick Ballard, to an ACL tear.  DOLPHINS 23-21.

 COWBOYS AT CHIEFS-  The Chiefs didn't play an impressive team in Week 1.  They did, however, win on the road, and that's something the Chiefs of last season simply didn't do.  At home in Arrowhead Stadium the Chiefs will show what they're made of against Tony Romo and his Cowboys.  Don't expect the Chiefs to turn the ball over 6 times the way the Giants did and don't expect Romo to have success in one of the loudest stadiums in the U.S.  CHIEFS 33-21.

BROWNS AT RAVENS-  The Browns have made massive improvements in their coaching staff.  They've also improved their defense with players such as Paul Kruger.  The Browns, however, still have Brandon Weeden playing quarterback, and that factor kept them from winning at home against the Dolphins.  With Michael Oher back and another week to workout defensive issues, the Ravens will be ready to beat the Browns at home.  Don't expect this to be a blowout though.  RAVENS 26-20.

TITANS AT TEXANS- I rooted excitedly for the Titans as they soundly defeated the Steelers, but I was more impressed with the Texans' come from behind win against the Chargers on the road.  I think the Texans are right back in the swing of things, and Brian Cushing has already made his presence felt.  Divisional matchups are tough, but the Texans shouldn't have too much trouble with this one.  TEXANS 27-17.

CHARGERS AT EAGLES-  The Eagles impressed me on the road last week, the Chargers disappointed me at home.  Gotta go with the Eagles on this one.  EAGLES 35-24.

LIONS AT CARDINALS-  I like the Lions this year.  Their Week 1 win was at home so it's not a huge indication of how they'll do on the road, but I'm simply not impressed with Arizona yet.  LIONS 28-14.

SAINTS AT BUCCANEERS-  The Saints don't often perform nearly as well on the road as at home, but they'll still likely beat a Buccaneers team that lost to the Jets last week.  SAINTS 31-13.

JAGUARS AT RAIDERS-  The Jags are a bad football team.  RAIDERS 24-17.

BRONCOS AT GIANTS- I would absolutely love to see Eli beat his brother in the Manning bowl, and maybe he will, but I don't expect him to do so.  Brandon Jacobs likely won't prove a major factor at this point, and the Giants don't usually have much of a homefield advantage for some odd reason.  Peyton Manning is simply the king of the regular season.  BRONCOS 38-27.

49ERS AT SEAHAWKS- The 49ers looked great against the Packers at home, and the Seahawks looked pedestrian against the Panthers on the road, but it's an entirely different story when the Seahawks play at home.  I've watched Boldin struggle against the Seattle defensive backs in the past, and the 49ers' defense won't be nearly the same on the road.  I'm sure most others will disagree with me on this one, but I gotta go with the home team here.  SEAHAWKS 23-20.

STEELERS AT BENGALS-  The Steelers can't protect Ben and he has few serious receivers to whom he can throw the ball.  The Steelers' running game is poor, and their defense wasn't strong enough at home to shut down even just Jake Locker last week.  Maybe the Steelers will surprise me, but I doubt it.  BENGALS 31-17.
 
      This is a big week for the Ravens.  They need to reestablish what it is that made them great in the past: running the football, shutdown defense, and clutch receiving when necessary.  Another week with his new targets should give Flacco more time to turn the 15 dropped passes from week 1 into productive receptions in week 2.  If the Ravens put up another 27 points this week, they'll win easily.

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

RAVENS REACTION AND NFL WEEK 1 RECAP

     RAVENS REACTION: WHAT HAPPENED, CHAMPS??

     When I predicted that the Ravens would beat Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos, I didn't count on Michael Oher and Jacoby Jones both being injured by their teammates.  Is Jones an amazing wide receiver?  No, of course not, but his speed stretches the field and helps to open up the Ravens offense.  Michael Oher isn't the greatest offensive tackle in the league, but he is unquestionably the best right tackle the Ravens have, and this was proven as Joe Flacco completed 63 percent of his passes while Oher was on the field and only 51 percent of his passes after Michael Oher exited the game.  With all of that said, Peyton Manning is a great second half quarterback, and there's little doubt in my mind that he would have had a spectacular night regardless of the Ravens' injuries as Manning simply picked apart a confused Ravens secondary.
     I must admit that I had lofty expectations for a secondary that looked great on paper.  I, like many, assumed that replacing a broken Ed Reed and a slow Bernard Pollard with former all pro safety Michael Huff, James Ihedigbo, and Matt Elam would mean a secondary that would excel in pass coverage.  Combine that with the return of Lardarius Webb and an upgraded pass rush with Elvis Dumervil, a healthy Terrell Suggs, and Chris Canty, and I figured Manning would have a much tougher time in the NFL opener.  As with many things in sports, the whole of a team is seldom equal to the sum of its parts.  Football is the most complicated major team sport in the world.  There's simply no way you can throw that many players together, get rid of the greatest free safety of a generation, and expect defensive fireworks.
     With all of that said, losing the first game of the season on the road against the greatest regular season quarterback of all time is no reason to panic or assume that the Ravens are doomed to a season of failure and loss.  The Ravens have lost the second game of the last two seasons to teams that missed the playoffs in those years.  A loss of that caliber to the Broncos offers the Ravens a great look into all of the major weaknesses that their team possesses.  Some of those weaknesses are either temporary or easily correctable on offense, and the defensive weaknesses, though seemingly extensive, may simply mean the Ravens require schematic adjustment.  Dean Pees certainly doesn't appear to be the greatest defensive coordinator in Ravens recent history, but he also isn't nearly the worst...that title belongs to Greg Mattison.   Pees is more than capable of making the adjustments required to take advantage of the level of talent on the Ravens defensive roster.
     One thing that should give the defense a huge boost is the return of the Ravens running game.   The last time the Ravens faced the Broncos Ray Rice had over 120 rushing yards and that helped the Ravens to keep Peyton Manning off the field.  Last Thursday the Ravens struggled to run the football after Michael Oher left the game.  The Ravens went through the entire third quarter with only 2 first downs, so it's no coincidence that Peyton Manning had 3 touchdowns in that very same quarter.  To make matters worse, the Ravens defense was left gasping for air as the offense couldn't stay on the field. 
     Nearly everything that could have gone wrong in week one for the Ravens DID go wrong, so there's plenty of blame to go around.  That was the biggest defensive disaster in Ravens history as this team has never given up 49 points in one game before, but it still only counts as one loss.  The 2013 Ravens don't appear to yet possess the vocal leadership of years past, but that doesn't mean that current players can't step up.  Terrell Suggs is doing his best, Joe Flacco will undoubtedly lead, and Ray Rice's voice in the locker room is much bigger than his physical size.
     Ray Lewis' leadership will be missed, but not nearly as much as Ed Reed's leadership at this point and with this secondary.  I had the pleasure of meeting Lardarius Webb twice in 2012, and the second time was when he came to be a guest coach with us at Long Reach High School the week before he tore his ACL.  I asked Lardarius what he thought of Ray Lewis, and he said "Ray is a great guy and a big personality, but for me and everyone on the back end of that defense, Ed Reed is the man.  He's the one that really takes the time to mentor the younger guys at this point."  Ed will be missed too, but I have a feeling Webb himself will step up.  Sometimes it takes failure and adversity to reveal true leaders.  This is the biggest year of transition in Ravens history without Ray and Ed, so let's see who steps up!

NFL WEEK 1 RECAP

     There's one thing that's absolutely certain in my mind after watching most of the week 1 NFL games: the Broncos are the only truly dominant team in the NFL at the moment.  It's not because they beat the Ravens, but because they THUMPED the Ravens without Champ Bailey and Von Miller.  Beyond that, it's safe to say that the many of the teams that people expected to come out swinging appeared much weaker than expected.  The Bengals lost to the Bears, the Seahawks only barely beat the Panthers, the Patriots only narrowly squeaked by the Bills, and the 49ers beat the Packers with the aid of a reffing mistake to which the officiating crew later admitted fault.  The Texans had a thrilling comeback win over the Chargers--but then again it's only the Chargers.  The Redskins disappointed many in the DC area by going down 33-7 before their heroic attempt at a comeback fell short.  The Steelers lost Foote and Pouncey and looked offensively impotent against a mediocre Titans squad, and the Giants disappointed fans in New York by losing a game that could have been easily won if they had protected the football only slightly better.  The Saints are back in action, but I would hardly call them dominant simply based on a single win at home.
     For now, the NFL seems mostly in disarray and entrenched in parity, but it's only a matter of time until some of last year's most dominant teams once again rise to the top.  For the Patriots, this should happen within a week or two of the return of Rob Gronkowski.  Gronk is such an incredible matchup nightmare that it's really quite fortunate that the Ravens didn't have to face him in last season's AFC Championship.  The 49ers and Packers both look rather impressive and I fully expect them to win their respective divisions.  The Texans looked great in the second half against the Chargers and finally found their rhythm.  This could be a season where the Bears find themselves battling Green Bay for the division title or beating out the Vikings for a wildcard spot.  Either way, most of the great teams from last year should still be impressive in 2013.
      The NFC East is a division that, like most years, should prove impossibly close.  All four teams faced divisional opponents this weekend, and each game was decided by 6 points or less.  The Giants were plagued by turnovers, and the Redskins were held back in the first half by Robert Griffin III's hesitance to step into this throws on his surgically repaired knee.  The Eagles looked quite explosive, but their defense collapsed late, and the Cowboys defense had plenty of turnovers but they'll need to be more offensively productive even when their opponent isn't losing the football if they hope to win their division.
     Another division that appears tight at the moment is the AFC North.  I say it appears close if only because every single team in the division lost in week 1, and this is the first time that has happened since 2002.  The Bengals lost in a tough road environment, so I would assume there's little panic in Cincinnati.  The Ravens were certainly not pleased with their blowout loss to the Broncos, but they can attribute at least some of the loss to early chemistry issues and the loss of two key players, one of whom should be back next week.  The Ravens also lost to possibly the best team in the league on the road, so there's slightly less shame.  The Browns, however, don't appear any better than last year.  If the Dolphins can stop Trent Richardson and limit them to 10 points, 2013 could prove to be just another "rebuilding" year in Cleveland.  The Steelers most likely hoped that the return of their quarterback to good health would mean they could potentially surprise doubters and once again compete for the AFC North title.  It's too early to totally dismiss the Steelers, but losing at home to a Titans team led by Jake Locker is not a good way to demonstrate you're making a comeback.  Losing Pouncey may prove to be an insurmountable obstacle for this season as Big Ben now has virtually no legitimate protection while the Steelers struggle to run the football.  Letting Mike Wallace go also appears to have left the Steelers with an ineffective receiving corps.  I won't totally count them out, but I have a feeling the Ravens-Steelers rivalry will be a lot less fun this season--mostly because both teams look rather soft.
     The only truly surprising AFC team in week 1 was one that just about everyone, including myself, assumed would fail miserably.  The Jets didn't start Mark Sanchez, and Darrelle Revis played on the team opposing them, but Gang Green still managed to edge a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that I assumed would look fairly impressive in week 1.  That's not to say that the Jets looked amazing, but they finished the week with the 8th ranked run defense and the 10th ranked pass defense even without their former most integral defensive cog.  This could mean an interesting matchup in week 2 when the Jets face the still-Gronkless Patriots in New England.
     Drawing serious conclusions from the first week or even the first MONTH of an NFL season seldom proves wise, but I'm certainly glad America has its favorite game back in full swing.  NFL fans have some interesting divisional matchups to look forward to in week 2 including the Titans at the Texans, the Jets at the Patriots, the Browns at the Ravens, the Vikings at the Bears, the 49ers at the Seahawks, the Steelers at the Bengals, and the Saints at the Buccaneers.  Peyton Manning and Eli Manning will also face off against one another on Sunday afternoon in what could prove to be quite a showdown.  Fans will get a chance to see if the Broncos are nearly as dominant on the road and whether or not Eli and his receivers can keep up the pace of his older brother and his respective targets.  Either way, I find myself looking forward to far more than the Ravens game this weekend.  Football season is upon us!

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!! 
    
     
    

Wednesday, September 4, 2013

WEEK 1 NFL PREDICTIONS

     I thought that I would feel vindicated as a Ravens fan after Joe Flacco finally led my beloved team to a Super Bowl win.  For years I found myself defending the Ravens as fans of other teams remarked that the boys in purple simply weren't good enough to hoist a second Lombardi trophy.  I even had one less informed Raiders fan explain to me that he KNEW Joe Flacco had some sort of learning disability because he wasn't lively enough on the sidelines as a leader a few years ago.  I encountered a host of Steelers fans that simply refused to believe that the Ravens could ever be a better team than Pittsburgh, and I battled Redskins fans that felt as though their head to head win over the Ravens last year meant that their team was STILL better than the Super Bowl winners because of a single regular season home victory.  Forget the fact that Joe Flacco and the Ravens have more wins (63) than any other team in the league during Joe's NFL career, and forget the fact that the Ravens are the only team to have gone to the playoffs every year for the last 5 years.  Somehow the national sports media and NFL fanbase still likes to think of just about any reason to insist that the Ravens simply aren't as good as they actually perform.
     After five years of watching the Ravens consistently succeed, I once again find myself defending them in the face of criticism.  A writer on NFL.com just ranked Joe Flacco 10th behind even the likes of Matt Ryan, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, and Andrew Luck on his 1-32 ranking of NFL quarterbacks.  I simply can't fathom that kind of lack of respect.  Being a quarterback isn't simply about regular season numbers, and it's certainly not about being able to run the read-option with great athleticism.  Being a great NFL quarterback means performing well in high pressure situations and winning when everything is on the line.  Joe Montana never passed for 4000+ yards in a regular season, but he was incredible in post seasons and has 4 Super Bowl rings to prove it.  Peyton Manning is almost literally the exact opposite.  He's great during each regular season, but finds ways to choke in key moments when the post season rolls around.  Case in point: Peyton Manning has as many playoff wins (9) in his 15 year career as Joe Flacco has in only 5 seasons.
     There are, of course, other factors that account for the Ravens great postseason record over the last 5 years including a great defense and solid running game, but watching Joe in last two postseasons has made it abundantly clear that there's something special about this young guy.  He successfully outplayed Tom Brady 3 times in the last two seasons and Peyton Manning in Denver.  He outplayed the two best quarterbacks of a generation on route to a Super Bowl MVP.  In my mind, and hopefully the minds of others, that deserves a higher ranking than 10th and more respect from the national media. 
     Maybe until Joe Flacco puts up flashy regular season numbers and wins league MVP, he simply won't get the respect or universal elite classification awarded to Brees, Manning, Brady, and Rodgers, but if he keeps outperforming all of these men in the playoffs, I simply couldn't care less.  This, after all, is an exciting year for Ravens fans as it features many young faces that may be household names for years to come in Charm City.  The Ravens defense is no longer what anyone would describe as "old", and the Ravens are no longer in a race against time to win a title with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. With that said, let's take a look at the first Purple Nightmare predictions of the season!

WEEK 1 NFL PREDICTIONS

RAVENS AT BRONCOS- The Ravens once again find themselves statistical underdogs according to national oddsmakers, but let's not discount the pieces that Peyton Manning's team will be missing tomorrow.  Champ Bailey hasn't practiced in over a month, Elvis Dumervil is playing for the opponent, Von Miller is suspended, and the Broncos starting center is done for the year.  Manning does have a new offensive weapon in Wes Welker, but Manning won't have his most important defensive weapons to get him the ball back.  The Ravens, on the other hand, have a much improved defense with an improved pass rush, improved pass coverage, and improved defensive line depth.  Ed Reed is no longer in the backfield to scare Peyton, but Suggs and Dumervil will scare him more than enough.  What defensive backs will be able to match up against Torrey Smith and the 6'5" Marlon Brown?  The answer is none on the Broncos' roster.  This prediction sounds cocky, but the more I thought about available personnel, the easier it was to make: RAVENS 31-24.

PATRIOTS AT BILLS-  I feel like this one warrants far less explanation.  The Patriots lost receiving weapons, but they reloaded, and their system along with a fairly explosive running game is what will win them this game easily.  PATRIOTS 28-17.

BENGALS AT BEARS-  Many people are quite high on the Bengals.  They believe this is the year the Bengals take over the AFC North.  I haven't seen enough additions to this team to give me reason to believe they'll take that big of a step.  With that said, the Bears don't impress me particularly either.  The Bears still maintain an impressive defensive ability to force turnovers, and that will make this one interesting.  I believe Andy Dalton will throw at least one deep pick since his accuracy on long passes has proven to be quite poor.  BENGALS 24-20.

DOLPHINS AT BROWNS- It's tough for me to know what to think about both the Dolphins and Browns at the moment.  I've stated for years that both of these teams have shown flashes that make me think they're only 2-3 players away from being contenders to win their respective divisions.  In a case like this, I'll simply go with the home team.  Trent Richardson should have a big day, and the Browns defense should be able to contain the likes of Mike Wallace, but this could be a close one.  BROWNS 17-13.

FALCONS AT SAINTS- The Saints should be right back in action with Sean Payton back as head coach.  This is a great rivalry and it should be made more interesting by the presence of Steven Jackson in red and black, but the Saints are simply to dominant at home while at full strength.  The Falcons are also not a terrific road team--especially not against the Saints.  SAINTS 38-28.

BUCCANEERS AT JETS- The Jets will be starting Geno Smith at quarterback...he didn't even look good in the PRESEASON.  BUCCANEERS 35-14.

TITANS AT STEELERS- The Steelers haven't exactly impressed me thus far, but I never discount a healthy Ben Roethlisberger.  The Steelers have homefield advantage and Kenny Britt still has soreness in his knee.  Chris Johnson doesn't scare Pittsburgh either.  STEELERS 24-17.

VIKINGS AT LIONS-  The Lions are a good team when healthy, and as good as Adrian Peterson is at his position, Megatron is arguably just as good at his.  This will be a close one though. LIONS 24-21.

RAIDERS AT COLTS- Hmm, Terrell Pryor or Andrew Luck?  COLTS 31-17.

SEAHAWKS AT PANTHERS- The Seahawks, believe it or not, were a poor road team last season.  I would hope for their sake that they've improved enough from that point to have no trouble handling the likes of Carolina.  SEAHAWKS 34-23.

CHIEFS AT JAGUARS-  This game last year would have been the biggest snoozefest of the season, but with the addition of Alex Smith and Andy Reid, the Chiefs should actually surprise some people in 2013.  At the very least, the Chiefs should beat a team as lowly as the Jags. CHIEFS 21-17.

CARDINALS AT RAMS- The Cardinals, like the Chiefs, have a new quarterback who has the potential to turn his new team around.  I like Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald in this one but the Rams will keep it close.  Cardinals 31-28.

PACKERS AT 49ERS-  Last season this was an easy win for the 49ers, but this season San Francisco lacks the receiving weapons from 2012.  I loved Anquan Boldin, but he's simply not Michael Crabtree at this point in his career.  The 49ers defense at home, however, is still too good to let Aaron Rodgers win this one.  Expect to see some spectacular highlights from this game.  This is a prediction that I debated in my mind for a startlingly long time, but here goes.  49ERS 27-21.

GIANTS AT COWBOYS- The Giants are the best road team in football, but without Jason Pierre Paul, I simply can't see them winning this game.  The Giants could still end up with a better record than the Cowboys, but their defense won't be the same without its best player.  I'm not a huge fan of the Cowboys, so I hope I'm wrong about this one.  COWBOYS 21-16.

 EAGLES AT REDSKINS- RG3 will be back, and I doubt he'll be in rare form, but the Eagles run defense is simply too poor to contain the likes of Alfred Morris, and the Redskins defense should be much improved with the return of Orakpo.  REDSKINS 33-28.
 
TEXANS AT CHARGERS-  The Texans will be fierce with the return of Brian Cushing and the Chargers haven't been very good for the last couple of seasons.  Maybe the Chargers could surprise us all, but I don't expect them to since Vincent Jackson has been a Buccaneer for over a year now.  TEXANS 42-21.

     Like predictions at the beginning of any season, these may not be particularly accurate as we really have no idea what each team will look like simply based on the preseason.  My predictions don't start to become accurate until I have a solid amount of statistical data to analyze.  For now, I have to go based on the eyeball test from the preseason and try to make intelligent guesses based on how teams performed last season while taking adjustments to personnel and draft picks into account.  Either way, everyone should be pumped Thursday night!

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!!