My 26-17 prediction for last weeks Ravens-Browns game wasn't too terrifically far off the mark, but I couldn't have anticipated the way the Ravens would arrive at the ultimate score of 25-20. I certainly would not have guessed Baltimore would go down 20-0 before mounting the second biggest comeback in franchise history. Any road win in the NFL, especially against a divisional opponent, is a good win, but what did last week's comeback win over the Browns tell us about the Ravens?
There are plenty of readers who likely couldn't take me seriously if I suggested that the Browns are a quality opponent. On paper they're not. There is, however, a great degree of familiarity between teams in the same division, and the Browns' head coach not only used to coach for the Ravens, he also led the Bengals to dominance over Baltimore during the two previous seasons. Hue Jackson often has a handful of tricks up his sleeve with which to take early leads on the Ravens. The Ravens tend to make the necessary defensive adjustments to Jackson's play calling by the second quarter, but not before significant damage has been done. In the case of last week, the damage was 20 unanswered points. The difference this time around was that the Hue Jackson's current team lacked 3 things that his previous team possessed: a mobile starting quarterback, a quality defense, and a legitimate #1 wide receiver capable of taking over a game.
Despite his electric performance against the Ravens in Baltimore in 2015, Josh McCown is not Andy Dalton. Dalton moves far more quickly to evade the pass rush, and it was Josh McCown's lack of mobility that led to a barrage of bone-crushing hits from the Ravens defensive line and linebackers. Many of the most brutal hits occurred after McCown got rid of the ball and completed key passes downfield, but the damage from the contact meant there would be absolutely no way McCown could continue to play with the same confidence and precision. The veteran quarterback fought valiantly, but his painful, sprained shoulder proved his ultimate undoing. The Browns couldn't muster a single point after the first quarter, and the Ravens defense continued with it's statistical dominance.
The Ravens defense is ranked 2nd in the league in total yards allowed thus far, but many would point to the fact that they've played two lackluster offenses. After watching their first quarter performance, I agree. This isn't an elite defense, but it could be. The final missing piece to the Ravens starting defense is a major one: Elvis Dumervil. Dumervil is, even at the age of 32, still a quality pass rusher, and his ability increases when he's not expected to be an every down player. When simply brought in on passing downs, Dumervil is downright elite. He may not play this week, but it sounds as though he's close to full health and will be ready to play against the Raiders next week at least. As it stands, the Ravens haven't gotten much pressure from their edge rushers. Suggs has a single sack, and Matt Judon appears to have real talent that will only continue to develop, but most of Baltimore's pass rush has come from interior defensive linemen and middle linebackers. Dumervil should change that quite a bit.
Ravens defensive coordinator, Dean Pees, scares a lot of Ravens fans and probably a fair number of Ravens coaches at times as well. In situations where the Ravens must simply prevent one last score, he almost never brings pressure with more than 3 down defensive linemen and a single outside linebacker. He, instead, elects to drop 7 men back into conservative pass coverage in hopes of preventing a big play. That strategy has, over the past several years, allowed opposing quarterbacks enough time to sit in the pocket and eventually find an open receiver to drive methodically down the field. That strategy cost the Ravens a playoff win in Foxboro in 2014, and it led to many 4th quarter collapses in 2015. The Ravens may eventually decide to fire Pees, but until then, they're going to have to make something happen with him calling the defensive shots. Elvis Dumervil should help tremendously to increase pressure on quarterbacks despite Pees' reluctance to blitz late in games. In 2014, the Ravens lacked quality corners and safeties, and in 2015 they lacked a complete pass rush amongst other things, but the return of Dumervil means the combination of a serious pass rush with a quality secondary. The result should be a defense capable of clamping down on opposing offenses in critical situations.
As good as the Ravens defense COULD be, the Browns definitely exposed weaknesses early on in the game. Missed tackles allowed an 85 yard touchdown from the Browns starting running back, and issues in coverage led to two touchdown receptions (only one was valid) by Corey Coleman. Coleman is a rookie, but his speed and quickness are elite, and I wished in vain earlier this year that he would fall to the Ravens at the beginning of the 2nd round of the draft. It's not as though the Ravens are bad in pass coverage just because a speedy wideout beats them deep a couple of times, but Isaiah Crowell's 85 yard touchdown run was disturbing to watch from a team that has historically almost never allowed 100 yard rushers in single games. It was good to see the Ravens hold Crowell from breaking off anymore long runs during the rest of the game, but he finished with 48 more yards on the ground for a total of 133, and that can't happen against better teams.
The Ravens offense, like the Ravens defense, had a disappointing first quarter performance. They struggled to establish the run, and Joe Flacco couldn't seem to find a rhythm because of poor pass protection. In the second quarter, however, adjustments appeared to have been made as pass protection improved dramatically and Joe began to spread the ball around. At first it appeared as though Flacco was simply content to play catch with the sure-handed, often open Dennis Pitta. The speed of Mike Wallace, and Breshad Perriman as well as the respect paid to Steve Smith Sr. allowed Pitta plenty of room to find soft spots in the Browns defense over the middle and up the seams. As soon as the Browns started zeroing in on Pitta, Joe began to spread the ball out to Breshad Perriman, Steve Smith Sr., and he even found Mike Wallace for two touchdowns. The running game continued to sputter, and it appears as though Marc Trestman doesn't have a firm grasp on how to design running plays that fit this personnel. The fact, however, that Joe Flacco could find success in the passing game despite a lack of success on the ground is encouraging to say the least, and it's a great sign for the offensive line's ability to pass protect and the ability of Ravens receivers to separate and make difficult catches.
Despite two well-placed touchdown passes, Joe Flacco still threw two interceptions. One of those picks was on a pass intended for Breshad Perriman. Flacco appeared to throw the ball up to Perriman in hopes that the rookie receiver would win a jump ball situation over elite cornerback Joe Haden. The frustrating aspect of the situation was that Perriman had a good step on Haden, and Joe could have hit him in stride in the back corner of the endzone for a touchdown. Joe is going to have to improve his chemistry with Perriman and learn to think of him as a burner in addition to being big-bodied. I'm sure I'm not the only one who has noticed Joe not putting as much zip on many of his passes, and I can't help but assume that has to do with a reluctance to step confidently into his throws on his surgically repaired left knee. That confidence will hopefully build with time, but we'll know more on Sunday when the Ravens face the #8 ranked pass defense in the league of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Traveling to Jacksonville doesn't make for a difficult road trip. The fanbase is seldom enthusiastic enough to make a serious difference, and Jags fans certainly won't be amped with their team beginning the season 0-2. That isn't to say this will be an easy game. The Ravens have yet to demonstrate they can put away losing teams early, and the Jaguars have weapons that must be respected. Allen Hurns did quite a number on the Ravens secondary of 2015, and he has proven to be a top wide receiver in the league. Hurns put up 139 receiving yards through the first two weeks of the season, and the Jaguars pass offense ranks 5th in the league with an average of 309.5 yards per game through the air.
As difficult as it is to win on the road in the NFL, and as threatening as the 5th ranked pass offense may seem, the Jaguars are ranked 30th in rushing yards per game, 24th in scoring, and 29th in points allowed. Jacksonville has also ruled out its left offensive tackle, and that could mean a big day for the Ravens pass rush. Blake Bortles has thrown as many interceptions as he has touchdowns (3), and his team is going up against a Ravens defense ranked 2nd in the league in yards allowed and 3rd in the league in points allowed. The addition of Eric Weddle has made a tremendous impact, and the three-time pro bowl safety was the highest rated defensive player on the team last week by pro football focus. I fully expect Weddle to take advantage of mistakes made by Bortles on Sunday.
The Ravens may not be the best team in the league, or even in the top 10 yet, but they're undefeated and have the potential to finish with at least 10 wins. They're forgiving schedule through the first 10 weeks of the season will allow them the chance to amass at least 7-8 wins going into the tougher final month and a half of the season. One thing the Ravens have in abundance is potential. Their coaching staff and young developing talent should allow them to finish the season much stronger than they began it, and their veteran experience should help guide the way. This weekend's game is the type of game the Ravens lost last season, but they're unquestionably better in 2016.
WEEK 3 NFL PREDICTIONS
CARDINALS AT BILLS- The Bills have given little reason why they could win this game. CARDINALS 31-20
RAIDERS AT TITANS- The Titans won in surprising fashion last week after going down by two scores to the Lions, but the Raiders have more firepower. The Raiders defense, however, leaves something to be desired, and Oakland may struggle to stop teams from scoring this season. RAIDERS 34-28
BROWNS AT DOLPHINS- With a third string rookie QB starting, the Browns have little change of beat the Dolphins in Miami. The Dolphins defense is impressive, and it will give their offense opportunities to find its rhythm. DOLPHINS 21-13
RAVENS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars got exposed last week against a Chargers team missing its best receiving weapon. This will provide a blueprint for the Ravens to have their first productive day running the football and a solid performance through the air. This still won't make Ravens fans feel comfortable, but a win is a win. RAVENS 24-17
LIONS AT PACKERS- I haven't been impressed with Aaron Rodgers for the past year. I think we've become so used to thinking of him as elite that his lack of success since winning the Super Bowl 5 years ago has never drawn much criticism. I think I like this game as my upset of the week. It's not yet frigid in Green Bay, and the Lions have enough to move the ball on the Pack. LIONS 23-20
BRONCOS AT BENGALS- This Bengals team won't be able to beat quality opponents until Tyler Eifert returns. He will not return this week. The loss of DeMarcus Ware will be tough, but the Broncos defense is still strong enough to give Andy Dalton a hard time. BRONCOS 27-21
VIKINGS AT PANTHERS- The Panthers are the better, healthier team, and they won't lose this game at home. PANTHERS 33-24
REDSKINS AT GIANTS- The Giants have an improved defense and just enough offensive weapons to tip the scales in their favor in the Meadowlands this weekend. Josh Norman will likely get beat by Odell Beckham at least once or twice in dramatic fashion. GIANTS 28-23
RAMS AT BUCCANEERS- The Rams are bad against anyone except the Seahawks. BUCCANEERS 38-13
49ERS AT SEAHAWKS- This is tough. The level of familiarity and the location of this game would ordinarily lead me to pick the Seahawks, but Seattle has struggled so mightily to put together anything on offense. Don't be surprised if this one is very wrong. 49ERS 21-16
JETS AT CHIEFS- The Jets defense simply doesn't scare anyone, but their offense is serious. Jamaal Charles' absence should lead to the second loss for the Chiefs in a row. JETS 30-28
CHARGERS AT COLTS- The Colts simply haven't been good under Chuck Pagano. This is the year that he loses his job. CHARGERS 35-21
STEELERS AT EAGLES- This is the first game the Steelers won't look dominant. Because of their improved offensive line, however, they will win this game. The Eagles are, nevertheless, quite good, and they'll make this an exciting game. STEELERS 28-24
BEARS AT COWBOYS- The Bears are bad and their team is already turning on Jay Cutler. The Cowbys should run right over them. COWBOYS 33-14
This should be a week to see how the Ravens can learn from their early mistakes and learn to use their new deep threat weapons. Let's hope that Dumervil can find his way to the field and make an impact early and often.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!
Saturday, September 24, 2016
Saturday, September 17, 2016
WEEK 2 NFL PREDICTIONS
Following Baltimore's Week 1 victory over the Buffalo Bills, I had a discussion with a friend about the current apparent strengths and weaknesses of the Ravens. My friend insisted that nothing should make Ravens fans too excited after a narrow victory over a mediocre Bills team, and he was appalled by the Ravens' inability to score more points. I, however, was encouraged by a great many things, and while I certainly wasn't pleased with 13 points on the board, I recognize that such a score isn't indicative of where this team is going.
The Ravens defense not only looks improved--it looks downright dominant. My friend's initial response was to suggest that the Bills aren't anything impressive on offense. Well that might have made more sense if Buffalo hadn't then proceeded to put up 31 points on a Jets defense that features the likes of Darrelle Revis. It also wasn't as though the Bills avoided Revis. Tyrod Taylor attacked him early with speedy rookie deep threat Marquise Goodwin who ran a simple go route and left the future hall-of-fame corner face down on the turf on his way into the end zone.
The major issues with the Ravens secondary for the past few years have stemmed from their inability to prevent big plays downfield from speedy, explosive receivers such as A.J. Green in pivotal moments late in games. Big plays, however, aren't the only thing that doomed the Ravens late in 4th quarters. Because of a lack of healthy talent at both corner and safety, Dean Pees often elected to have corners play far off of the receivers they were assigned to cover. It wasn't uncommon to see corners playing 7 to 11 yards off of a receiver on a 3rd and short situation. Pees simply didn't have faith in the ability of his corners to be able to play press-man coverage effectively, and he desperately hoped to at least prevent against the aforementioned big play from a team's #1 wideout. Fast forward to last week when the Ravens went up against one of the most talented young wide recievers in the league, Sammy Watkins. Watkins was kept out of the endzone entirely and was limited to a mere 4 catches for 41 yards. The Ravens certainly didn't allow Marquise Goodwill to get behind their secondary either, and that can be tall task when facing a mobile quarterback who is dangerous when buying time with his legs.
The Ravens defense was SO incredibly stifling that it didn't even allow a single Buffalo first down in the 4th quarter. That statistic is mindboggling when one considers how many times the Ravens allowed late 4th quarter leads to slip away over the past few years. This team, it's safe to say, finally appears to have a defense on par with historically strong Ravens defenses of years past. They once again possess the ability to clamp down on a team and win with a narrow lead. No one should yet suggest that this is the next 2000 Ravens defense, but it definitely appears to be the strongest unit they've fielded since 2011, and it may prove to be much better than that by season's end.
This defense isn't even yet at full strength. Elvis Dumervil has yet to take the field, and will provide a major pass rushing boost when he does so within the next two weeks. Terrell Suggs is still working back into playing shape, and his midseason form should compliment Dumervil tremendously. What's truly amazing is that the Ravens defense looks so improved without its heralded pass rushing tandem that led the league in sacks in 2014. Not only have the Ravens found pass rushing production from young talent such as Timmy Jernigan and Matt Judon, but they also can afford to blitz more heavily because of their overhaul of the secondary. Lardarius Webb's position change and the acquisition of Eric Weddle have both given the Ravens a pair of safeties with excellent coverage and tackling skills for the first time since Ed Reed and Dawan Landry, Haruki Nakamuri, or Tom Zbikowski. For such a long time, the Ravens could pair Reed with a decent strong safety and expect excellence in coverage. Since Ed's departure, pass coverage from safeties was the team's biggest weakness. Weddle and Webb bring experience, athleticism, speed, and leadership that could potentially lead this team into the playoffs.
Safety play isn't the only improvement in the secondary. The cornerback trio of Jimmy Smith, Shareece Wright, and Will Davis is the most talented trio this team has started in years. The funny thing is that this unit is flying almost totally under the radar as few know who Will Davis is nationally because of his season-ending ACL tear last year after a brief, electrifying start. Jimmy Smith appears to be close to back to his 2013 form, and he should be able to cover big-bodied receivers such as Dez Bryant or A.J. Green. Shareece Wright may have flown under the radar last season, but after last week, I don't think any teams can ignore him. Wright had 11 total tackles, 3 of which were for a loss. Wright's tackles for a loss weren't just productive because of the loss of yardage, they were spectacular because of who he closed in on and tackled-- most notably LeSean McCoy.
The Ravens defense looks tremendously improved and should be a major strength going forward, but my friend certainly did have a point about the offense needing to score more on a Bills defense that gave up 37 points to the Jets. Joe Flacco sat in the pocket too long at times, and seemed hesitant to get rid of the ball. Flacco, as a result, took some pretty big hits, and it's safe to say that adjustments need to be made in play-calling at overall offensive strategy. Marc Trestman appeared at times to try to get too cute with his play design, and he's going to have to understand and accept that Steve Smith Sr. will take time to get back into his usual explosive playing shape.
That isn't to say that there weren't offensive bright spots. Breshad Perriman's first NFL catch was on the level of sports center highlight catches made by top 10 receivers around the league. His potential to become a dominant weapon is undeniable. Flacco's 66 yard touchdown strike to Mike Wallace over the middle of the field when the Bills double teamed Smith Sr. was a thing of beauty, and it demonstrated how this receiving corps could force teams to pick their poison; either they let Steve Smith toss defensive backs around on his way into the endzone, or they get absolutely toasted by Mike Wallace, Breshad Perriman, or Chris Moore. Dennis Pitta played fearlessly once again and is back to his role as a critical 3rd down chain-mover.
The running backs flashed at times, but a total of 83 yards on the ground simply isn't enough to take pressure off of Flacco as he regains his confidence. Trestman appears leery of inside runs with two rookies starting on the left side of the offensive line, but he needs to remember that he has the most dominant guard in football on the right side behind whom Forsett, West, and eventually Dixon can run in short yardage situations. It's important that Trestman remember how this offense is built and not force his personnel to fit his system. He instead should adjust his system to fit the personnel.
An important thing to remember is that the Ravens could have easily put the ball into the endzone once more on the final drive of the game had they needed to do so. They had the time and timeouts to walk away with a respectable 20-7 score. There was, of course, no need to attempt to score once more, but one could easily look at the scoreboard and imagine that the Ravens were holding on for dear life to get the win. Such an assessment couldn't be further from the truth. The advantage of having a strong defense is knowing that the offense doesn't have to take unnecessary risks to win a game. I have no doubt that Trestman will look to put on a bigger display of offensive might against the Browns on Sunday, but expect the defense to hold the Browns to 13 points or less.
Despite a low points total in Week 1, the Ravens offense has the pieces that should make fans excited and optimistic about this season. Last week was, after all, the first time that starting offensive unit took the field together, and there are still plenty of pieces that will soon get healthy and add to the arsenal at Trestman's disposal. Besides, any week the Ravens win is a good week. Let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 2 NFL PICKS
BENGALS AT STEELERS- For many this will be the game of the week in the AFC if not the NFL. Tensions will likely run high in a rematch of a violent and controversial divisional playoff game last season. Many might have been impressed with the Bengals' ability to edge the Jets, but the Jets proved defensively unimpressive with a single-score win over the Bills on Thursday. The Steelers, however, will be at home and seemed to score with ease in D.C. despite the absence of Le'Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant. The Steelers offensive line looks much improved from last season, and their defense should be able to slow down the Bengals just enough to get a close win here. STEELERS 31-28
TITANS AT LIONS- The Lions impressed me with their shootout win over the Colts last week. I expect a similar performance at home against a weak Titans team that lost last week to a Vikings squad without its starting QB. LIONS 38-13
RAVENS AT BROWNS- The fact that Josh McCown torched the Ravens last year means nothing at this point given the overhaul of the Ravens secondary. The Ravens could struggle early to run the football against the Browns 4-3 defensive front, but Cleveland has no sort of pass rush without Paul Kruger, and Flacco should the time and weapons to take some devastating shots downfield. The Browns may be bad, but they always play the Ravens tough, and Hue Jackson is no stranger to the Ravens. RAVENS 26-17
COWBOYS AT REDSKINS- The Cowboys may have lost in Week 1, but they showed a LOT more production than the Redskins. The Skins' defense can have Josh Norman follow Dez Bryant all over the field, and the Cowboys will STILL be able to run the ball right down their collective throat. Dak will get a triumphant first win over his team's biggest rival. COWBOYS 30-21
SAINTS AT GIANTS- I have to give Drew Brees credit for finding ways to put up insane amounts of offense year in and year out even after the departure of such weapons as Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles over the past few years. The Saints have, however, a difficult time playing in outdoor road environments, and their defense is one of the worst in football. The Giants have the weapons this season to out-duel a team like the Saints, and they'll do so this weekend. GIANTS 42-35
49ERS AT PANTHERS- The 49ers won big over the Rams in Week 1, but they won't be able to travel across the country and beat the Panthers. I don't think this requires a ton of explanation, but the 49ers simply aren't as good. PANTHERS 27-14
DOLPHINS AT PATRIOTS- I was impressed with the Dolphins' ability to hold the Seahawks to 12 points in Seattle last week, but the Patriots are still quite strong on both sides of the ball even with Brady and Gronk out for the next couple of weeks. Factor in the home field advantage in Foxboro and you've got a game the Patriots aren't likely to lose. PATRIOTS 24-16
CHIEFS AT TEXANS- If the Chiefs can out-duel a healthy Chargers team, I can't imagine they'd have trouble outscoring the Texans. The Texans beat the Bears, but the Bears are also awful. Brock Osweiler is underwhelming most of the time, and Alex Smith was sensational with 363 passing yards last week. This could still be close. CHIEFS 23-20
SEAHAWKS AT RAMS- The Rams have played the Seahawks tough for the duration of Russell Wilson's career, but it's difficult to predict an upset for a team that was blanked by the 49ers last week. SEAHAWKS 20-13
BUCCANEERS AT CARDINALS- I expect the Cardinals to get back on their feet after a perplexing and unexpected loss to the Patriots last week, but the Bucs are not to be taken lightly. This is going to be an exciting battle. CARDINALS 30-28
JAGUARS AT CHARGERS- Losing Keenan Allen again was a depressing blow to a team that appeared to have a lot of promise early on in last week's matchup with the Chiefs. The Chargers still have enough firepower to outgun the Jaguars. It's difficult to win when traveling across the country.
CHARGERS 31-23
FALCONS AT RAIDERS- If the Raiders can beat out the Saints in New Orleans when Drew Brees is on fire, I have little doubt they'll make short work of a Falcons team that simply hasn't been the same since Tony Gonzalez retired. RAIDERS 38-20
COLTS AT BRONCOS- The Colts still don't have the defense to stop a team like the Broncos often enough to give Andrew Luck the time and opportunities to win on the road. BRONCOS 27-23
PACKERS AT VIKINGS- Aaron Rodgers is going to have fun with this one. Without Bridgewater and with waning production from Adrian Peterson, the Packers should embarrass their divisional rival in Minneapolis. PACKERS 33-17
EAGLES AT BEARS- The Eagles were impressive in their Week 1 thumping of the Browns. They'll beat out another crappy opponent this Monday. EAGLES 34-14
THE RAVENS SHOULD BUILD MOMENTUM AND CONTINUE TO WORKOUT THE KINKS IN THEIR OFFENSE AS THEY MAKE HUE JACKSON WISH HE NEVER LEFT CINCINNATI. THIS RAVENS TEAM IS UNQUESTIONABLY BETTER THAN THAT OF LAST SEASON, AND THEIR RECORD SHOULD REFLECT IT BY MIDSEASON.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!
The Ravens defense not only looks improved--it looks downright dominant. My friend's initial response was to suggest that the Bills aren't anything impressive on offense. Well that might have made more sense if Buffalo hadn't then proceeded to put up 31 points on a Jets defense that features the likes of Darrelle Revis. It also wasn't as though the Bills avoided Revis. Tyrod Taylor attacked him early with speedy rookie deep threat Marquise Goodwin who ran a simple go route and left the future hall-of-fame corner face down on the turf on his way into the end zone.
The major issues with the Ravens secondary for the past few years have stemmed from their inability to prevent big plays downfield from speedy, explosive receivers such as A.J. Green in pivotal moments late in games. Big plays, however, aren't the only thing that doomed the Ravens late in 4th quarters. Because of a lack of healthy talent at both corner and safety, Dean Pees often elected to have corners play far off of the receivers they were assigned to cover. It wasn't uncommon to see corners playing 7 to 11 yards off of a receiver on a 3rd and short situation. Pees simply didn't have faith in the ability of his corners to be able to play press-man coverage effectively, and he desperately hoped to at least prevent against the aforementioned big play from a team's #1 wideout. Fast forward to last week when the Ravens went up against one of the most talented young wide recievers in the league, Sammy Watkins. Watkins was kept out of the endzone entirely and was limited to a mere 4 catches for 41 yards. The Ravens certainly didn't allow Marquise Goodwill to get behind their secondary either, and that can be tall task when facing a mobile quarterback who is dangerous when buying time with his legs.
The Ravens defense was SO incredibly stifling that it didn't even allow a single Buffalo first down in the 4th quarter. That statistic is mindboggling when one considers how many times the Ravens allowed late 4th quarter leads to slip away over the past few years. This team, it's safe to say, finally appears to have a defense on par with historically strong Ravens defenses of years past. They once again possess the ability to clamp down on a team and win with a narrow lead. No one should yet suggest that this is the next 2000 Ravens defense, but it definitely appears to be the strongest unit they've fielded since 2011, and it may prove to be much better than that by season's end.
This defense isn't even yet at full strength. Elvis Dumervil has yet to take the field, and will provide a major pass rushing boost when he does so within the next two weeks. Terrell Suggs is still working back into playing shape, and his midseason form should compliment Dumervil tremendously. What's truly amazing is that the Ravens defense looks so improved without its heralded pass rushing tandem that led the league in sacks in 2014. Not only have the Ravens found pass rushing production from young talent such as Timmy Jernigan and Matt Judon, but they also can afford to blitz more heavily because of their overhaul of the secondary. Lardarius Webb's position change and the acquisition of Eric Weddle have both given the Ravens a pair of safeties with excellent coverage and tackling skills for the first time since Ed Reed and Dawan Landry, Haruki Nakamuri, or Tom Zbikowski. For such a long time, the Ravens could pair Reed with a decent strong safety and expect excellence in coverage. Since Ed's departure, pass coverage from safeties was the team's biggest weakness. Weddle and Webb bring experience, athleticism, speed, and leadership that could potentially lead this team into the playoffs.
Safety play isn't the only improvement in the secondary. The cornerback trio of Jimmy Smith, Shareece Wright, and Will Davis is the most talented trio this team has started in years. The funny thing is that this unit is flying almost totally under the radar as few know who Will Davis is nationally because of his season-ending ACL tear last year after a brief, electrifying start. Jimmy Smith appears to be close to back to his 2013 form, and he should be able to cover big-bodied receivers such as Dez Bryant or A.J. Green. Shareece Wright may have flown under the radar last season, but after last week, I don't think any teams can ignore him. Wright had 11 total tackles, 3 of which were for a loss. Wright's tackles for a loss weren't just productive because of the loss of yardage, they were spectacular because of who he closed in on and tackled-- most notably LeSean McCoy.
The Ravens defense looks tremendously improved and should be a major strength going forward, but my friend certainly did have a point about the offense needing to score more on a Bills defense that gave up 37 points to the Jets. Joe Flacco sat in the pocket too long at times, and seemed hesitant to get rid of the ball. Flacco, as a result, took some pretty big hits, and it's safe to say that adjustments need to be made in play-calling at overall offensive strategy. Marc Trestman appeared at times to try to get too cute with his play design, and he's going to have to understand and accept that Steve Smith Sr. will take time to get back into his usual explosive playing shape.
That isn't to say that there weren't offensive bright spots. Breshad Perriman's first NFL catch was on the level of sports center highlight catches made by top 10 receivers around the league. His potential to become a dominant weapon is undeniable. Flacco's 66 yard touchdown strike to Mike Wallace over the middle of the field when the Bills double teamed Smith Sr. was a thing of beauty, and it demonstrated how this receiving corps could force teams to pick their poison; either they let Steve Smith toss defensive backs around on his way into the endzone, or they get absolutely toasted by Mike Wallace, Breshad Perriman, or Chris Moore. Dennis Pitta played fearlessly once again and is back to his role as a critical 3rd down chain-mover.
The running backs flashed at times, but a total of 83 yards on the ground simply isn't enough to take pressure off of Flacco as he regains his confidence. Trestman appears leery of inside runs with two rookies starting on the left side of the offensive line, but he needs to remember that he has the most dominant guard in football on the right side behind whom Forsett, West, and eventually Dixon can run in short yardage situations. It's important that Trestman remember how this offense is built and not force his personnel to fit his system. He instead should adjust his system to fit the personnel.
An important thing to remember is that the Ravens could have easily put the ball into the endzone once more on the final drive of the game had they needed to do so. They had the time and timeouts to walk away with a respectable 20-7 score. There was, of course, no need to attempt to score once more, but one could easily look at the scoreboard and imagine that the Ravens were holding on for dear life to get the win. Such an assessment couldn't be further from the truth. The advantage of having a strong defense is knowing that the offense doesn't have to take unnecessary risks to win a game. I have no doubt that Trestman will look to put on a bigger display of offensive might against the Browns on Sunday, but expect the defense to hold the Browns to 13 points or less.
Despite a low points total in Week 1, the Ravens offense has the pieces that should make fans excited and optimistic about this season. Last week was, after all, the first time that starting offensive unit took the field together, and there are still plenty of pieces that will soon get healthy and add to the arsenal at Trestman's disposal. Besides, any week the Ravens win is a good week. Let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 2 NFL PICKS
BENGALS AT STEELERS- For many this will be the game of the week in the AFC if not the NFL. Tensions will likely run high in a rematch of a violent and controversial divisional playoff game last season. Many might have been impressed with the Bengals' ability to edge the Jets, but the Jets proved defensively unimpressive with a single-score win over the Bills on Thursday. The Steelers, however, will be at home and seemed to score with ease in D.C. despite the absence of Le'Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant. The Steelers offensive line looks much improved from last season, and their defense should be able to slow down the Bengals just enough to get a close win here. STEELERS 31-28
TITANS AT LIONS- The Lions impressed me with their shootout win over the Colts last week. I expect a similar performance at home against a weak Titans team that lost last week to a Vikings squad without its starting QB. LIONS 38-13
RAVENS AT BROWNS- The fact that Josh McCown torched the Ravens last year means nothing at this point given the overhaul of the Ravens secondary. The Ravens could struggle early to run the football against the Browns 4-3 defensive front, but Cleveland has no sort of pass rush without Paul Kruger, and Flacco should the time and weapons to take some devastating shots downfield. The Browns may be bad, but they always play the Ravens tough, and Hue Jackson is no stranger to the Ravens. RAVENS 26-17
COWBOYS AT REDSKINS- The Cowboys may have lost in Week 1, but they showed a LOT more production than the Redskins. The Skins' defense can have Josh Norman follow Dez Bryant all over the field, and the Cowboys will STILL be able to run the ball right down their collective throat. Dak will get a triumphant first win over his team's biggest rival. COWBOYS 30-21
SAINTS AT GIANTS- I have to give Drew Brees credit for finding ways to put up insane amounts of offense year in and year out even after the departure of such weapons as Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles over the past few years. The Saints have, however, a difficult time playing in outdoor road environments, and their defense is one of the worst in football. The Giants have the weapons this season to out-duel a team like the Saints, and they'll do so this weekend. GIANTS 42-35
49ERS AT PANTHERS- The 49ers won big over the Rams in Week 1, but they won't be able to travel across the country and beat the Panthers. I don't think this requires a ton of explanation, but the 49ers simply aren't as good. PANTHERS 27-14
DOLPHINS AT PATRIOTS- I was impressed with the Dolphins' ability to hold the Seahawks to 12 points in Seattle last week, but the Patriots are still quite strong on both sides of the ball even with Brady and Gronk out for the next couple of weeks. Factor in the home field advantage in Foxboro and you've got a game the Patriots aren't likely to lose. PATRIOTS 24-16
CHIEFS AT TEXANS- If the Chiefs can out-duel a healthy Chargers team, I can't imagine they'd have trouble outscoring the Texans. The Texans beat the Bears, but the Bears are also awful. Brock Osweiler is underwhelming most of the time, and Alex Smith was sensational with 363 passing yards last week. This could still be close. CHIEFS 23-20
SEAHAWKS AT RAMS- The Rams have played the Seahawks tough for the duration of Russell Wilson's career, but it's difficult to predict an upset for a team that was blanked by the 49ers last week. SEAHAWKS 20-13
BUCCANEERS AT CARDINALS- I expect the Cardinals to get back on their feet after a perplexing and unexpected loss to the Patriots last week, but the Bucs are not to be taken lightly. This is going to be an exciting battle. CARDINALS 30-28
JAGUARS AT CHARGERS- Losing Keenan Allen again was a depressing blow to a team that appeared to have a lot of promise early on in last week's matchup with the Chiefs. The Chargers still have enough firepower to outgun the Jaguars. It's difficult to win when traveling across the country.
CHARGERS 31-23
FALCONS AT RAIDERS- If the Raiders can beat out the Saints in New Orleans when Drew Brees is on fire, I have little doubt they'll make short work of a Falcons team that simply hasn't been the same since Tony Gonzalez retired. RAIDERS 38-20
COLTS AT BRONCOS- The Colts still don't have the defense to stop a team like the Broncos often enough to give Andrew Luck the time and opportunities to win on the road. BRONCOS 27-23
PACKERS AT VIKINGS- Aaron Rodgers is going to have fun with this one. Without Bridgewater and with waning production from Adrian Peterson, the Packers should embarrass their divisional rival in Minneapolis. PACKERS 33-17
EAGLES AT BEARS- The Eagles were impressive in their Week 1 thumping of the Browns. They'll beat out another crappy opponent this Monday. EAGLES 34-14
THE RAVENS SHOULD BUILD MOMENTUM AND CONTINUE TO WORKOUT THE KINKS IN THEIR OFFENSE AS THEY MAKE HUE JACKSON WISH HE NEVER LEFT CINCINNATI. THIS RAVENS TEAM IS UNQUESTIONABLY BETTER THAN THAT OF LAST SEASON, AND THEIR RECORD SHOULD REFLECT IT BY MIDSEASON.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!
Saturday, September 10, 2016
WEEK 1 NFL PICKS
Few things have amazed me more than the widespread assumption of many sports pundits that the Pittsburgh Steelers should be given great odds to go deep in the playoffs or even make it to the Super Bowl this season. It's not that the Steelers are devoid of talent; they have some of the best players in the league at a handful of positions. They are, however, lacking in numerous areas most football minds would consider essential to a strong season and post-season run.
The Steelers defense absolutely leaves something to be desired. It isn't the worst in the league--not by a long stretch--but Pittsburgh became addicted over the past 5 years to the once mighty core group of defensive stars of the previous decade. Players such as James Harrison, Troy Polamalu, and Brett Keisel, were relied upon 2-3 years beyond the end of their athletic primes to produce in a fashion that yielded dominance from the middle to the end of the last decade. Yes, James Harrison still contributes to the team even at his advanced age, but it took far too long to push for serious defensive replacements.
Many might say that the Steelers' lack of defensive clout isn't reason for panic because of their sheer offensive firepower, but the heralded trio of Ben Roethlisberger, Le'veon Bell, and Antonio Brown has amassed a total of one playoff win together. The Steelers, in fact, have a single playoff win in the last 5 years. Since the departure of Bruce Arians, the Steelers have done almost nothing in the post season but lose to Tim Tebow, get blown out at home against the Ravens, and squeak by a Bengals team that appears hell-bent on imploding in the post-season by any means necessary. Pieces of this supposedly elite trio are also often not available because of injuries or sheer stupidity. Le'veon Bell will begin the season with a three game suspension, and Ben Roethlisberger has played 2 complete 16-game regular seasons in his entire career (I'm not making that up).
Beyond Pittsburgh's dynamic offensive trio, the Steelers have also relied on the speed and incredible athleticism of Martavis Bryant. Bryant is suspended for this season, and his absence will not go unnoticed. It is, thus, confusing to me that a team with absences of key personnel and a horrendous recent track record of post-season success would be pumped up to such a degree by sports media.
The Ravens are coming off of one of the worst seasons in the history of their franchise. They lost their starting quarterback, running back, center, left tackle, their two starting wide receivers, their top outside linebacker, nearly all of their starting corners, their starting tight end, and a host of other supporting players to finish as one of the most physically decimated teams in the league. Suffice it to say that it wasn't their year. The Ravens, however, tied an NFL record for 14 of 16 games won or lost by a single score. They held leads in the final two minutes of games over such teams as the Bengals, Cardinals, and Raiders, and they SWEPT the Steelers.
Injuries, however, aren't the only thing that held the Ravens back. Part of their inability to hold on to leads in the final two minutes of games had to do with an inability to place quality safeties on the field following the departure of Ed Reed. Despite their best efforts, the Ravens essentially wasted a first and third round draft pick over the course of the last four seasons by selecting Matt Elam and Terrence Brooks. That's not to say that there was no upside to Terrence Brooks. Much of the Ravens fanbase watched the Florida state product make punishingly spectacular tackles in the pre-season this year, and I still haven't been able to wrap my head around the reason that Brooks was let go instead of Kendrick Lewis. Brooks has, nevertheless, not produced in his first two seasons the way that many Ravens third round picks have.
Baltimore also failed to effectively replace Torrey Smith after letting him walk in free agency, and no player ever consistently took advantage of Joe Flacco's arm strength before Smith was drafted in 2011. Joe needs speed. He throws one of the best deep balls in the NFL, and has never been in an offense or had the weapons to rely upon timing and a quick release to move the chains such as that seen with Tom Brady and the Patriots. Ozzie Newsome has simply never truly invested in elite receiving weapons with which to surround his franchise QB.
Ravens fans have always marveled at the likes of A.J. Green and Antonio Brown. Sure, Baltimore has possessed elite running backs and tough-as-nails-but-past-their-prime receivers such as Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Smith Sr., but when have they drafted a single receiver who has gone to a Pro Bowl, let alone multiple Pro Bowls? They have drafted pro bowlers at the tight end, running back, safety, middle linebacker, outside linebacker, defensive line, corner, offensive guard, offensive tackle, kicker, and punter positions, but no such draft success yet with a wide receiver. That certainly hasn't stopped the Ravens from winning two Super Bowls in their first 20 years of existence, but it has been a mystery to fans and analysts alike for years.
The Ravens' poor track record of selecting wide receivers in the draft may be about to change. No one wants to speak to soon because of the seemingly cursed health of Breshad Perriman's knees, but the former first round pick is finally healthy and looked explosive in his pre-season debut against the Saints' starters. Even if he is not consistently healthy this season, Breshad Perriman may not be required for the Ravens to get back to winning games. Steve Smith Sr. likely still has plenty of that which has made him an elite receiver for nearly the entirety of his 15 year career: toughness. Kamar Aiken stepped up in a big way in Smith's absence as he came just shy of 1000 receiver yards despite only starting in slightly over half of last seasons' games. The Ravens added veteran speed demon Mike Wallace and 4th round deep threat Chris Moore to ensure Flacco has plenty of field-stretching targets in the event that Perriman doesn't stay healthy.
Now imagine that the Ravens had the likes of Perriman and Wallace last season when they consistently struggled to win impossibly close games. Oh and let's add in the addition of all pro safety Eric Weddle at the back end to help prevent big plays from opposing teams. OH! And what about that backup left tackle who got bull-rushed into Joe Flacco's knee and caused him to tear his ACL? Well they replaced him with a first round pick who has already looked like a top 10 left tackle in the league when going up against opposing starters. Throw in the return of Terrell Suggs, and this is a starkly different team than the one that took the field for most of last season.
I understand that plenty of people doubt the Ravens after a 5-11 season, but one can't predict this season based in last season's record. A team is only as strong as the players it possesses, and the Ravens possess a talent level and depth of players consistent with nearly all of their successful teams of the John Harbaugh era--not that which struggled mightily through 2015. The Steelers, on the other hand, have not been routinely successful during Todd Haley's tenure as offensive coordinator, and their moderate success of 2015 should not simply be assumed to carry over seamlessly into 2016 as players integral to last year's success will not be present for part or all of this season. That isn't to say they won't be competitive and do reasonably well, but I find the hype somewhat overblown given the circumstances. At this point we have but to sit back and see if my optimism for Baltimore and skepticism for Pittsburgh are warranted, and with that, it's time to take a look at the Week 1 NFL picks!
WEEK 1 NFL PICKS
PACKERS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars are much improved over the team they fielded two years ago with a pair of elite wide receivers and an improving quarterback, but the return of Jordy Nelson means Aaron Rodgers should get right back to carving up opposing defenses. PACKERS 31-20
BILLS AT RAVENS- The Bills have lost both of their first round picks along with key defensive starters going into this game. Not only will the Ravens provide new offensive looks that even Ed Reed isn't familiar with, they will also simply have more talent on the field in front of a raucous home crowd. The Ravens are quite familiar with Tyrod Taylor...and no, they're not afraid of him. RAVENS 28-17
BEARS AT TEXANS- I haven't had faith in the Bears in a long time, and despite questions at the quarterback position, the Texans should still be strong enough to win this game at home. TEXANS 23-20
BROWNS AT EAGLES- This is going to be a MUCH harder fought game than most people realize. Hue Jackson knows extremely well how to take advantage of a mobile quarterback with a strong arm, and that's exactly what he has in RG3. This is an offensive system in which Griffin can finally once again thrive. BROWNS 30-24
BUCCANEERS AT FALCONS- The Falcons haven't been the same since Tony Gonzalez retired, but they should be improved this season and are historically strong at home. Divisional games are tough to predict, but this one seems fairly clear. FALCONS 35-21
VIKINGS AT TITANS- The Vikings would have easily won this game with their starting quarterback, but they won't have him this season. For the record, I still think the Titans are really bad, but it's tough to beat a team one the road when you've just been offensively decapitated. TITANS 20-16
BENGALS AT JETS- The Bengals lost their offensive coordinator and two of their 3 top wide receivers. This one could go either way, but somehow I don't think A.J. Green will have career day as the only truly proven receiver on his team and facing Darrelle Revis. JETS 27-24
RAIDERS AT SAINTS- The Saints starters struggled to move the ball in the preseason against the Ravens' backups. The Raiders have a ton of young talent including their quarterback. RAIDERS 42-28
CHARGERS AT CHIEFS- The Chargers have an explosive offense when healthy, but the Chiefs' defense is undeniably stout. In a tough divisional matchup such as this, I have to give the slight edge to the home team. CHIEFS
DOLPHINS AT SEAHAWKS- I actually thing the dolphins are going to have a strong defense this season, but they're walking into a buzzsaw in Seattle this week. SEAHAWKS 33-21
LIONS AT COLTS- Andrew Luck is going to be back in a big way this season, and the Lions will be without Calvin Johnson...and pretty much anyone good at football. COLTS 38-13
GIANTS AT COWBOYS- I'm not a Cowboys fan, but I'll be very interested to see how Dak Prescott performs. The Giants have been a great road team during Eli Manning's career, and the return of Victor Cruz means he has more than just one serious receiver at his disposal. I'm not sure that the Giants have the defensive muscle to stop the Cowboys' running game, but they could still score quickly and often against a Dallas defense that doesn't scare anyone. GIANTS 28-24
PATRIOTS AT CARDINALS- No Tom, no Gronk, no Foxboro? Against the Cardinals? Tyrann Mathieu is back and he could once again make life hell for opposing offenses. CARDINALS 34-14
STEELERS AT REDSKINS- The Redskins were a quality team at home last year, and the Steelers don't always begin seasons well, especially with key absences. Le'veon Bell and Martavis Bryant are gone. On the other hand, Ladarius Green should be an upgrade at tight end, and I'm not convinced the Redskins will be able to put enough pressure on a deceptively mobile Roethlisberger. C'mon Redskins, prove me wrong here. STEELERS 27-20
RAMS AT 49ERS- The 49ers lost Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith has been a disappointment to say the least since leaving Baltimore. This will barely be a road game for the newly moved Rams, and their rushing attack is quite impressive. RAMS 28-10
THIS IS IT, BALTIMORE. JUST ONE MORE NIGHT AND RAVENS FOOTBALL WILL OFFICIALLY BE BACK!!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!
The Steelers defense absolutely leaves something to be desired. It isn't the worst in the league--not by a long stretch--but Pittsburgh became addicted over the past 5 years to the once mighty core group of defensive stars of the previous decade. Players such as James Harrison, Troy Polamalu, and Brett Keisel, were relied upon 2-3 years beyond the end of their athletic primes to produce in a fashion that yielded dominance from the middle to the end of the last decade. Yes, James Harrison still contributes to the team even at his advanced age, but it took far too long to push for serious defensive replacements.
Many might say that the Steelers' lack of defensive clout isn't reason for panic because of their sheer offensive firepower, but the heralded trio of Ben Roethlisberger, Le'veon Bell, and Antonio Brown has amassed a total of one playoff win together. The Steelers, in fact, have a single playoff win in the last 5 years. Since the departure of Bruce Arians, the Steelers have done almost nothing in the post season but lose to Tim Tebow, get blown out at home against the Ravens, and squeak by a Bengals team that appears hell-bent on imploding in the post-season by any means necessary. Pieces of this supposedly elite trio are also often not available because of injuries or sheer stupidity. Le'veon Bell will begin the season with a three game suspension, and Ben Roethlisberger has played 2 complete 16-game regular seasons in his entire career (I'm not making that up).
Beyond Pittsburgh's dynamic offensive trio, the Steelers have also relied on the speed and incredible athleticism of Martavis Bryant. Bryant is suspended for this season, and his absence will not go unnoticed. It is, thus, confusing to me that a team with absences of key personnel and a horrendous recent track record of post-season success would be pumped up to such a degree by sports media.
The Ravens are coming off of one of the worst seasons in the history of their franchise. They lost their starting quarterback, running back, center, left tackle, their two starting wide receivers, their top outside linebacker, nearly all of their starting corners, their starting tight end, and a host of other supporting players to finish as one of the most physically decimated teams in the league. Suffice it to say that it wasn't their year. The Ravens, however, tied an NFL record for 14 of 16 games won or lost by a single score. They held leads in the final two minutes of games over such teams as the Bengals, Cardinals, and Raiders, and they SWEPT the Steelers.
Injuries, however, aren't the only thing that held the Ravens back. Part of their inability to hold on to leads in the final two minutes of games had to do with an inability to place quality safeties on the field following the departure of Ed Reed. Despite their best efforts, the Ravens essentially wasted a first and third round draft pick over the course of the last four seasons by selecting Matt Elam and Terrence Brooks. That's not to say that there was no upside to Terrence Brooks. Much of the Ravens fanbase watched the Florida state product make punishingly spectacular tackles in the pre-season this year, and I still haven't been able to wrap my head around the reason that Brooks was let go instead of Kendrick Lewis. Brooks has, nevertheless, not produced in his first two seasons the way that many Ravens third round picks have.
Baltimore also failed to effectively replace Torrey Smith after letting him walk in free agency, and no player ever consistently took advantage of Joe Flacco's arm strength before Smith was drafted in 2011. Joe needs speed. He throws one of the best deep balls in the NFL, and has never been in an offense or had the weapons to rely upon timing and a quick release to move the chains such as that seen with Tom Brady and the Patriots. Ozzie Newsome has simply never truly invested in elite receiving weapons with which to surround his franchise QB.
Ravens fans have always marveled at the likes of A.J. Green and Antonio Brown. Sure, Baltimore has possessed elite running backs and tough-as-nails-but-past-their-prime receivers such as Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Smith Sr., but when have they drafted a single receiver who has gone to a Pro Bowl, let alone multiple Pro Bowls? They have drafted pro bowlers at the tight end, running back, safety, middle linebacker, outside linebacker, defensive line, corner, offensive guard, offensive tackle, kicker, and punter positions, but no such draft success yet with a wide receiver. That certainly hasn't stopped the Ravens from winning two Super Bowls in their first 20 years of existence, but it has been a mystery to fans and analysts alike for years.
The Ravens' poor track record of selecting wide receivers in the draft may be about to change. No one wants to speak to soon because of the seemingly cursed health of Breshad Perriman's knees, but the former first round pick is finally healthy and looked explosive in his pre-season debut against the Saints' starters. Even if he is not consistently healthy this season, Breshad Perriman may not be required for the Ravens to get back to winning games. Steve Smith Sr. likely still has plenty of that which has made him an elite receiver for nearly the entirety of his 15 year career: toughness. Kamar Aiken stepped up in a big way in Smith's absence as he came just shy of 1000 receiver yards despite only starting in slightly over half of last seasons' games. The Ravens added veteran speed demon Mike Wallace and 4th round deep threat Chris Moore to ensure Flacco has plenty of field-stretching targets in the event that Perriman doesn't stay healthy.
Now imagine that the Ravens had the likes of Perriman and Wallace last season when they consistently struggled to win impossibly close games. Oh and let's add in the addition of all pro safety Eric Weddle at the back end to help prevent big plays from opposing teams. OH! And what about that backup left tackle who got bull-rushed into Joe Flacco's knee and caused him to tear his ACL? Well they replaced him with a first round pick who has already looked like a top 10 left tackle in the league when going up against opposing starters. Throw in the return of Terrell Suggs, and this is a starkly different team than the one that took the field for most of last season.
I understand that plenty of people doubt the Ravens after a 5-11 season, but one can't predict this season based in last season's record. A team is only as strong as the players it possesses, and the Ravens possess a talent level and depth of players consistent with nearly all of their successful teams of the John Harbaugh era--not that which struggled mightily through 2015. The Steelers, on the other hand, have not been routinely successful during Todd Haley's tenure as offensive coordinator, and their moderate success of 2015 should not simply be assumed to carry over seamlessly into 2016 as players integral to last year's success will not be present for part or all of this season. That isn't to say they won't be competitive and do reasonably well, but I find the hype somewhat overblown given the circumstances. At this point we have but to sit back and see if my optimism for Baltimore and skepticism for Pittsburgh are warranted, and with that, it's time to take a look at the Week 1 NFL picks!
WEEK 1 NFL PICKS
PACKERS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars are much improved over the team they fielded two years ago with a pair of elite wide receivers and an improving quarterback, but the return of Jordy Nelson means Aaron Rodgers should get right back to carving up opposing defenses. PACKERS 31-20
BILLS AT RAVENS- The Bills have lost both of their first round picks along with key defensive starters going into this game. Not only will the Ravens provide new offensive looks that even Ed Reed isn't familiar with, they will also simply have more talent on the field in front of a raucous home crowd. The Ravens are quite familiar with Tyrod Taylor...and no, they're not afraid of him. RAVENS 28-17
BEARS AT TEXANS- I haven't had faith in the Bears in a long time, and despite questions at the quarterback position, the Texans should still be strong enough to win this game at home. TEXANS 23-20
BROWNS AT EAGLES- This is going to be a MUCH harder fought game than most people realize. Hue Jackson knows extremely well how to take advantage of a mobile quarterback with a strong arm, and that's exactly what he has in RG3. This is an offensive system in which Griffin can finally once again thrive. BROWNS 30-24
BUCCANEERS AT FALCONS- The Falcons haven't been the same since Tony Gonzalez retired, but they should be improved this season and are historically strong at home. Divisional games are tough to predict, but this one seems fairly clear. FALCONS 35-21
VIKINGS AT TITANS- The Vikings would have easily won this game with their starting quarterback, but they won't have him this season. For the record, I still think the Titans are really bad, but it's tough to beat a team one the road when you've just been offensively decapitated. TITANS 20-16
BENGALS AT JETS- The Bengals lost their offensive coordinator and two of their 3 top wide receivers. This one could go either way, but somehow I don't think A.J. Green will have career day as the only truly proven receiver on his team and facing Darrelle Revis. JETS 27-24
RAIDERS AT SAINTS- The Saints starters struggled to move the ball in the preseason against the Ravens' backups. The Raiders have a ton of young talent including their quarterback. RAIDERS 42-28
CHARGERS AT CHIEFS- The Chargers have an explosive offense when healthy, but the Chiefs' defense is undeniably stout. In a tough divisional matchup such as this, I have to give the slight edge to the home team. CHIEFS
DOLPHINS AT SEAHAWKS- I actually thing the dolphins are going to have a strong defense this season, but they're walking into a buzzsaw in Seattle this week. SEAHAWKS 33-21
LIONS AT COLTS- Andrew Luck is going to be back in a big way this season, and the Lions will be without Calvin Johnson...and pretty much anyone good at football. COLTS 38-13
GIANTS AT COWBOYS- I'm not a Cowboys fan, but I'll be very interested to see how Dak Prescott performs. The Giants have been a great road team during Eli Manning's career, and the return of Victor Cruz means he has more than just one serious receiver at his disposal. I'm not sure that the Giants have the defensive muscle to stop the Cowboys' running game, but they could still score quickly and often against a Dallas defense that doesn't scare anyone. GIANTS 28-24
PATRIOTS AT CARDINALS- No Tom, no Gronk, no Foxboro? Against the Cardinals? Tyrann Mathieu is back and he could once again make life hell for opposing offenses. CARDINALS 34-14
STEELERS AT REDSKINS- The Redskins were a quality team at home last year, and the Steelers don't always begin seasons well, especially with key absences. Le'veon Bell and Martavis Bryant are gone. On the other hand, Ladarius Green should be an upgrade at tight end, and I'm not convinced the Redskins will be able to put enough pressure on a deceptively mobile Roethlisberger. C'mon Redskins, prove me wrong here. STEELERS 27-20
RAMS AT 49ERS- The 49ers lost Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith has been a disappointment to say the least since leaving Baltimore. This will barely be a road game for the newly moved Rams, and their rushing attack is quite impressive. RAMS 28-10
THIS IS IT, BALTIMORE. JUST ONE MORE NIGHT AND RAVENS FOOTBALL WILL OFFICIALLY BE BACK!!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!
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