Few things have amazed me more than the widespread assumption of many sports pundits that the Pittsburgh Steelers should be given great odds to go deep in the playoffs or even make it to the Super Bowl this season. It's not that the Steelers are devoid of talent; they have some of the best players in the league at a handful of positions. They are, however, lacking in numerous areas most football minds would consider essential to a strong season and post-season run.
The Steelers defense absolutely leaves something to be desired. It isn't the worst in the league--not by a long stretch--but Pittsburgh became addicted over the past 5 years to the once mighty core group of defensive stars of the previous decade. Players such as James Harrison, Troy Polamalu, and Brett Keisel, were relied upon 2-3 years beyond the end of their athletic primes to produce in a fashion that yielded dominance from the middle to the end of the last decade. Yes, James Harrison still contributes to the team even at his advanced age, but it took far too long to push for serious defensive replacements.
Many might say that the Steelers' lack of defensive clout isn't reason for panic because of their sheer offensive firepower, but the heralded trio of Ben Roethlisberger, Le'veon Bell, and Antonio Brown has amassed a total of one playoff win together. The Steelers, in fact, have a single playoff win in the last 5 years. Since the departure of Bruce Arians, the Steelers have done almost nothing in the post season but lose to Tim Tebow, get blown out at home against the Ravens, and squeak by a Bengals team that appears hell-bent on imploding in the post-season by any means necessary. Pieces of this supposedly elite trio are also often not available because of injuries or sheer stupidity. Le'veon Bell will begin the season with a three game suspension, and Ben Roethlisberger has played 2 complete 16-game regular seasons in his entire career (I'm not making that up).
Beyond Pittsburgh's dynamic offensive trio, the Steelers have also relied on the speed and incredible athleticism of Martavis Bryant. Bryant is suspended for this season, and his absence will not go unnoticed. It is, thus, confusing to me that a team with absences of key personnel and a horrendous recent track record of post-season success would be pumped up to such a degree by sports media.
The Ravens are coming off of one of the worst seasons in the history of their franchise. They lost their starting quarterback, running back, center, left tackle, their two starting wide receivers, their top outside linebacker, nearly all of their starting corners, their starting tight end, and a host of other supporting players to finish as one of the most physically decimated teams in the league. Suffice it to say that it wasn't their year. The Ravens, however, tied an NFL record for 14 of 16 games won or lost by a single score. They held leads in the final two minutes of games over such teams as the Bengals, Cardinals, and Raiders, and they SWEPT the Steelers.
Injuries, however, aren't the only thing that held the Ravens back. Part of their inability to hold on to leads in the final two minutes of games had to do with an inability to place quality safeties on the field following the departure of Ed Reed. Despite their best efforts, the Ravens essentially wasted a first and third round draft pick over the course of the last four seasons by selecting Matt Elam and Terrence Brooks. That's not to say that there was no upside to Terrence Brooks. Much of the Ravens fanbase watched the Florida state product make punishingly spectacular tackles in the pre-season this year, and I still haven't been able to wrap my head around the reason that Brooks was let go instead of Kendrick Lewis. Brooks has, nevertheless, not produced in his first two seasons the way that many Ravens third round picks have.
Baltimore also failed to effectively replace Torrey Smith after letting him walk in free agency, and no player ever consistently took advantage of Joe Flacco's arm strength before Smith was drafted in 2011. Joe needs speed. He throws one of the best deep balls in the NFL, and has never been in an offense or had the weapons to rely upon timing and a quick release to move the chains such as that seen with Tom Brady and the Patriots. Ozzie Newsome has simply never truly invested in elite receiving weapons with which to surround his franchise QB.
Ravens fans have always marveled at the likes of A.J. Green and Antonio Brown. Sure, Baltimore has possessed elite running backs and tough-as-nails-but-past-their-prime receivers such as Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Smith Sr., but when have they drafted a single receiver who has gone to a Pro Bowl, let alone multiple Pro Bowls? They have drafted pro bowlers at the tight end, running back, safety, middle linebacker, outside linebacker, defensive line, corner, offensive guard, offensive tackle, kicker, and punter positions, but no such draft success yet with a wide receiver. That certainly hasn't stopped the Ravens from winning two Super Bowls in their first 20 years of existence, but it has been a mystery to fans and analysts alike for years.
The Ravens' poor track record of selecting wide receivers in the draft may be about to change. No one wants to speak to soon because of the seemingly cursed health of Breshad Perriman's knees, but the former first round pick is finally healthy and looked explosive in his pre-season debut against the Saints' starters. Even if he is not consistently healthy this season, Breshad Perriman may not be required for the Ravens to get back to winning games. Steve Smith Sr. likely still has plenty of that which has made him an elite receiver for nearly the entirety of his 15 year career: toughness. Kamar Aiken stepped up in a big way in Smith's absence as he came just shy of 1000 receiver yards despite only starting in slightly over half of last seasons' games. The Ravens added veteran speed demon Mike Wallace and 4th round deep threat Chris Moore to ensure Flacco has plenty of field-stretching targets in the event that Perriman doesn't stay healthy.
Now imagine that the Ravens had the likes of Perriman and Wallace last season when they consistently struggled to win impossibly close games. Oh and let's add in the addition of all pro safety Eric Weddle at the back end to help prevent big plays from opposing teams. OH! And what about that backup left tackle who got bull-rushed into Joe Flacco's knee and caused him to tear his ACL? Well they replaced him with a first round pick who has already looked like a top 10 left tackle in the league when going up against opposing starters. Throw in the return of Terrell Suggs, and this is a starkly different team than the one that took the field for most of last season.
I understand that plenty of people doubt the Ravens after a 5-11 season, but one can't predict this season based in last season's record. A team is only as strong as the players it possesses, and the Ravens possess a talent level and depth of players consistent with nearly all of their successful teams of the John Harbaugh era--not that which struggled mightily through 2015. The Steelers, on the other hand, have not been routinely successful during Todd Haley's tenure as offensive coordinator, and their moderate success of 2015 should not simply be assumed to carry over seamlessly into 2016 as players integral to last year's success will not be present for part or all of this season. That isn't to say they won't be competitive and do reasonably well, but I find the hype somewhat overblown given the circumstances. At this point we have but to sit back and see if my optimism for Baltimore and skepticism for Pittsburgh are warranted, and with that, it's time to take a look at the Week 1 NFL picks!
WEEK 1 NFL PICKS
PACKERS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars are much improved over the team they fielded two years ago with a pair of elite wide receivers and an improving quarterback, but the return of Jordy Nelson means Aaron Rodgers should get right back to carving up opposing defenses. PACKERS 31-20
BILLS AT RAVENS- The Bills have lost both of their first round picks along with key defensive starters going into this game. Not only will the Ravens provide new offensive looks that even Ed Reed isn't familiar with, they will also simply have more talent on the field in front of a raucous home crowd. The Ravens are quite familiar with Tyrod Taylor...and no, they're not afraid of him. RAVENS 28-17
BEARS AT TEXANS- I haven't had faith in the Bears in a long time, and despite questions at the quarterback position, the Texans should still be strong enough to win this game at home. TEXANS 23-20
BROWNS AT EAGLES- This is going to be a MUCH harder fought game than most people realize. Hue Jackson knows extremely well how to take advantage of a mobile quarterback with a strong arm, and that's exactly what he has in RG3. This is an offensive system in which Griffin can finally once again thrive. BROWNS 30-24
BUCCANEERS AT FALCONS- The Falcons haven't been the same since Tony Gonzalez retired, but they should be improved this season and are historically strong at home. Divisional games are tough to predict, but this one seems fairly clear. FALCONS 35-21
VIKINGS AT TITANS- The Vikings would have easily won this game with their starting quarterback, but they won't have him this season. For the record, I still think the Titans are really bad, but it's tough to beat a team one the road when you've just been offensively decapitated. TITANS 20-16
BENGALS AT JETS- The Bengals lost their offensive coordinator and two of their 3 top wide receivers. This one could go either way, but somehow I don't think A.J. Green will have career day as the only truly proven receiver on his team and facing Darrelle Revis. JETS 27-24
RAIDERS AT SAINTS- The Saints starters struggled to move the ball in the preseason against the Ravens' backups. The Raiders have a ton of young talent including their quarterback. RAIDERS 42-28
CHARGERS AT CHIEFS- The Chargers have an explosive offense when healthy, but the Chiefs' defense is undeniably stout. In a tough divisional matchup such as this, I have to give the slight edge to the home team. CHIEFS
DOLPHINS AT SEAHAWKS- I actually thing the dolphins are going to have a strong defense this season, but they're walking into a buzzsaw in Seattle this week. SEAHAWKS 33-21
LIONS AT COLTS- Andrew Luck is going to be back in a big way this season, and the Lions will be without Calvin Johnson...and pretty much anyone good at football. COLTS 38-13
GIANTS AT COWBOYS- I'm not a Cowboys fan, but I'll be very interested to see how Dak Prescott performs. The Giants have been a great road team during Eli Manning's career, and the return of Victor Cruz means he has more than just one serious receiver at his disposal. I'm not sure that the Giants have the defensive muscle to stop the Cowboys' running game, but they could still score quickly and often against a Dallas defense that doesn't scare anyone. GIANTS 28-24
PATRIOTS AT CARDINALS- No Tom, no Gronk, no Foxboro? Against the Cardinals? Tyrann Mathieu is back and he could once again make life hell for opposing offenses. CARDINALS 34-14
STEELERS AT REDSKINS- The Redskins were a quality team at home last year, and the Steelers don't always begin seasons well, especially with key absences. Le'veon Bell and Martavis Bryant are gone. On the other hand, Ladarius Green should be an upgrade at tight end, and I'm not convinced the Redskins will be able to put enough pressure on a deceptively mobile Roethlisberger. C'mon Redskins, prove me wrong here. STEELERS 27-20
RAMS AT 49ERS- The 49ers lost Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith has been a disappointment to say the least since leaving Baltimore. This will barely be a road game for the newly moved Rams, and their rushing attack is quite impressive. RAMS 28-10
THIS IS IT, BALTIMORE. JUST ONE MORE NIGHT AND RAVENS FOOTBALL WILL OFFICIALLY BE BACK!!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!
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