My 26-17 prediction for last weeks Ravens-Browns game wasn't too terrifically far off the mark, but I couldn't have anticipated the way the Ravens would arrive at the ultimate score of 25-20. I certainly would not have guessed Baltimore would go down 20-0 before mounting the second biggest comeback in franchise history. Any road win in the NFL, especially against a divisional opponent, is a good win, but what did last week's comeback win over the Browns tell us about the Ravens?
There are plenty of readers who likely couldn't take me seriously if I suggested that the Browns are a quality opponent. On paper they're not. There is, however, a great degree of familiarity between teams in the same division, and the Browns' head coach not only used to coach for the Ravens, he also led the Bengals to dominance over Baltimore during the two previous seasons. Hue Jackson often has a handful of tricks up his sleeve with which to take early leads on the Ravens. The Ravens tend to make the necessary defensive adjustments to Jackson's play calling by the second quarter, but not before significant damage has been done. In the case of last week, the damage was 20 unanswered points. The difference this time around was that the Hue Jackson's current team lacked 3 things that his previous team possessed: a mobile starting quarterback, a quality defense, and a legitimate #1 wide receiver capable of taking over a game.
Despite his electric performance against the Ravens in Baltimore in 2015, Josh McCown is not Andy Dalton. Dalton moves far more quickly to evade the pass rush, and it was Josh McCown's lack of mobility that led to a barrage of bone-crushing hits from the Ravens defensive line and linebackers. Many of the most brutal hits occurred after McCown got rid of the ball and completed key passes downfield, but the damage from the contact meant there would be absolutely no way McCown could continue to play with the same confidence and precision. The veteran quarterback fought valiantly, but his painful, sprained shoulder proved his ultimate undoing. The Browns couldn't muster a single point after the first quarter, and the Ravens defense continued with it's statistical dominance.
The Ravens defense is ranked 2nd in the league in total yards allowed thus far, but many would point to the fact that they've played two lackluster offenses. After watching their first quarter performance, I agree. This isn't an elite defense, but it could be. The final missing piece to the Ravens starting defense is a major one: Elvis Dumervil. Dumervil is, even at the age of 32, still a quality pass rusher, and his ability increases when he's not expected to be an every down player. When simply brought in on passing downs, Dumervil is downright elite. He may not play this week, but it sounds as though he's close to full health and will be ready to play against the Raiders next week at least. As it stands, the Ravens haven't gotten much pressure from their edge rushers. Suggs has a single sack, and Matt Judon appears to have real talent that will only continue to develop, but most of Baltimore's pass rush has come from interior defensive linemen and middle linebackers. Dumervil should change that quite a bit.
Ravens defensive coordinator, Dean Pees, scares a lot of Ravens fans and probably a fair number of Ravens coaches at times as well. In situations where the Ravens must simply prevent one last score, he almost never brings pressure with more than 3 down defensive linemen and a single outside linebacker. He, instead, elects to drop 7 men back into conservative pass coverage in hopes of preventing a big play. That strategy has, over the past several years, allowed opposing quarterbacks enough time to sit in the pocket and eventually find an open receiver to drive methodically down the field. That strategy cost the Ravens a playoff win in Foxboro in 2014, and it led to many 4th quarter collapses in 2015. The Ravens may eventually decide to fire Pees, but until then, they're going to have to make something happen with him calling the defensive shots. Elvis Dumervil should help tremendously to increase pressure on quarterbacks despite Pees' reluctance to blitz late in games. In 2014, the Ravens lacked quality corners and safeties, and in 2015 they lacked a complete pass rush amongst other things, but the return of Dumervil means the combination of a serious pass rush with a quality secondary. The result should be a defense capable of clamping down on opposing offenses in critical situations.
As good as the Ravens defense COULD be, the Browns definitely exposed weaknesses early on in the game. Missed tackles allowed an 85 yard touchdown from the Browns starting running back, and issues in coverage led to two touchdown receptions (only one was valid) by Corey Coleman. Coleman is a rookie, but his speed and quickness are elite, and I wished in vain earlier this year that he would fall to the Ravens at the beginning of the 2nd round of the draft. It's not as though the Ravens are bad in pass coverage just because a speedy wideout beats them deep a couple of times, but Isaiah Crowell's 85 yard touchdown run was disturbing to watch from a team that has historically almost never allowed 100 yard rushers in single games. It was good to see the Ravens hold Crowell from breaking off anymore long runs during the rest of the game, but he finished with 48 more yards on the ground for a total of 133, and that can't happen against better teams.
The Ravens offense, like the Ravens defense, had a disappointing first quarter performance. They struggled to establish the run, and Joe Flacco couldn't seem to find a rhythm because of poor pass protection. In the second quarter, however, adjustments appeared to have been made as pass protection improved dramatically and Joe began to spread the ball around. At first it appeared as though Flacco was simply content to play catch with the sure-handed, often open Dennis Pitta. The speed of Mike Wallace, and Breshad Perriman as well as the respect paid to Steve Smith Sr. allowed Pitta plenty of room to find soft spots in the Browns defense over the middle and up the seams. As soon as the Browns started zeroing in on Pitta, Joe began to spread the ball out to Breshad Perriman, Steve Smith Sr., and he even found Mike Wallace for two touchdowns. The running game continued to sputter, and it appears as though Marc Trestman doesn't have a firm grasp on how to design running plays that fit this personnel. The fact, however, that Joe Flacco could find success in the passing game despite a lack of success on the ground is encouraging to say the least, and it's a great sign for the offensive line's ability to pass protect and the ability of Ravens receivers to separate and make difficult catches.
Despite two well-placed touchdown passes, Joe Flacco still threw two interceptions. One of those picks was on a pass intended for Breshad Perriman. Flacco appeared to throw the ball up to Perriman in hopes that the rookie receiver would win a jump ball situation over elite cornerback Joe Haden. The frustrating aspect of the situation was that Perriman had a good step on Haden, and Joe could have hit him in stride in the back corner of the endzone for a touchdown. Joe is going to have to improve his chemistry with Perriman and learn to think of him as a burner in addition to being big-bodied. I'm sure I'm not the only one who has noticed Joe not putting as much zip on many of his passes, and I can't help but assume that has to do with a reluctance to step confidently into his throws on his surgically repaired left knee. That confidence will hopefully build with time, but we'll know more on Sunday when the Ravens face the #8 ranked pass defense in the league of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Traveling to Jacksonville doesn't make for a difficult road trip. The fanbase is seldom enthusiastic enough to make a serious difference, and Jags fans certainly won't be amped with their team beginning the season 0-2. That isn't to say this will be an easy game. The Ravens have yet to demonstrate they can put away losing teams early, and the Jaguars have weapons that must be respected. Allen Hurns did quite a number on the Ravens secondary of 2015, and he has proven to be a top wide receiver in the league. Hurns put up 139 receiving yards through the first two weeks of the season, and the Jaguars pass offense ranks 5th in the league with an average of 309.5 yards per game through the air.
As difficult as it is to win on the road in the NFL, and as threatening as the 5th ranked pass offense may seem, the Jaguars are ranked 30th in rushing yards per game, 24th in scoring, and 29th in points allowed. Jacksonville has also ruled out its left offensive tackle, and that could mean a big day for the Ravens pass rush. Blake Bortles has thrown as many interceptions as he has touchdowns (3), and his team is going up against a Ravens defense ranked 2nd in the league in yards allowed and 3rd in the league in points allowed. The addition of Eric Weddle has made a tremendous impact, and the three-time pro bowl safety was the highest rated defensive player on the team last week by pro football focus. I fully expect Weddle to take advantage of mistakes made by Bortles on Sunday.
The Ravens may not be the best team in the league, or even in the top 10 yet, but they're undefeated and have the potential to finish with at least 10 wins. They're forgiving schedule through the first 10 weeks of the season will allow them the chance to amass at least 7-8 wins going into the tougher final month and a half of the season. One thing the Ravens have in abundance is potential. Their coaching staff and young developing talent should allow them to finish the season much stronger than they began it, and their veteran experience should help guide the way. This weekend's game is the type of game the Ravens lost last season, but they're unquestionably better in 2016.
WEEK 3 NFL PREDICTIONS
CARDINALS AT BILLS- The Bills have given little reason why they could win this game. CARDINALS 31-20
RAIDERS AT TITANS- The Titans won in surprising fashion last week after going down by two scores to the Lions, but the Raiders have more firepower. The Raiders defense, however, leaves something to be desired, and Oakland may struggle to stop teams from scoring this season. RAIDERS 34-28
BROWNS AT DOLPHINS- With a third string rookie QB starting, the Browns have little change of beat the Dolphins in Miami. The Dolphins defense is impressive, and it will give their offense opportunities to find its rhythm. DOLPHINS 21-13
RAVENS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars got exposed last week against a Chargers team missing its best receiving weapon. This will provide a blueprint for the Ravens to have their first productive day running the football and a solid performance through the air. This still won't make Ravens fans feel comfortable, but a win is a win. RAVENS 24-17
LIONS AT PACKERS- I haven't been impressed with Aaron Rodgers for the past year. I think we've become so used to thinking of him as elite that his lack of success since winning the Super Bowl 5 years ago has never drawn much criticism. I think I like this game as my upset of the week. It's not yet frigid in Green Bay, and the Lions have enough to move the ball on the Pack. LIONS 23-20
BRONCOS AT BENGALS- This Bengals team won't be able to beat quality opponents until Tyler Eifert returns. He will not return this week. The loss of DeMarcus Ware will be tough, but the Broncos defense is still strong enough to give Andy Dalton a hard time. BRONCOS 27-21
VIKINGS AT PANTHERS- The Panthers are the better, healthier team, and they won't lose this game at home. PANTHERS 33-24
REDSKINS AT GIANTS- The Giants have an improved defense and just enough offensive weapons to tip the scales in their favor in the Meadowlands this weekend. Josh Norman will likely get beat by Odell Beckham at least once or twice in dramatic fashion. GIANTS 28-23
RAMS AT BUCCANEERS- The Rams are bad against anyone except the Seahawks. BUCCANEERS 38-13
49ERS AT SEAHAWKS- This is tough. The level of familiarity and the location of this game would ordinarily lead me to pick the Seahawks, but Seattle has struggled so mightily to put together anything on offense. Don't be surprised if this one is very wrong. 49ERS 21-16
JETS AT CHIEFS- The Jets defense simply doesn't scare anyone, but their offense is serious. Jamaal Charles' absence should lead to the second loss for the Chiefs in a row. JETS 30-28
CHARGERS AT COLTS- The Colts simply haven't been good under Chuck Pagano. This is the year that he loses his job. CHARGERS 35-21
STEELERS AT EAGLES- This is the first game the Steelers won't look dominant. Because of their improved offensive line, however, they will win this game. The Eagles are, nevertheless, quite good, and they'll make this an exciting game. STEELERS 28-24
BEARS AT COWBOYS- The Bears are bad and their team is already turning on Jay Cutler. The Cowbys should run right over them. COWBOYS 33-14
This should be a week to see how the Ravens can learn from their early mistakes and learn to use their new deep threat weapons. Let's hope that Dumervil can find his way to the field and make an impact early and often.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!
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