The Raiders beat the Tennessee Titans 17-10 last week. Their defense is ranked dead last in the NFL, and they've had to lean heavily on an offense whose 2nd place ranking is based largely on two early games against NFC South teams with almost no defense to speak of in the Saints and Falcons. Oakland has, nevertheless, produced enough offense to win 2 of their first 3 games despite an atrocious Raiders defense. The Ravens are narrowly favored to beat Oakland at home on Sunday, but something on the injury report undoubtedly makes observant Ravens fans wary of this matchup.
Ronnie Stanley prides himself for his durability and insists it takes something serious to cause him to actually miss a game. Stanley, however, hasn't practiced this week and was in a walking boot through Wednesday. The assumption is that both Ronnie Stanley and starting left guard, Alex Lewis, will not play this weekend. Lewis suffered a concussion last week and has yet to pass concussion protocol in order to be cleared to play. The Ravens have fully capable backups at left guard in Ryan Jensen and John Urshel, but the idea of James Hurst once again taking the field as Joe Flacco's blindside tackle conjures up images of Hurst being bulldozed into the side of Flacco's knee. There is the possibility that the Ravens could heavily shuffle the offensive line to put the most competent athletes on each end. It's conceivable that the Ravens could put Marshal Yanda at right tackle, Ryan Jensen at right guard, Jeremy Zuttah at center, John Urshel at left guard, and Rick Wagner at left tackle. While that may put the best 5 available linemen on the field, it also puts too many pieces out of position and could open the possibility of major mental errors.
The all-rookie left side of the Ravens offensive line has performed shakily at times over the last two weeks, so maybe it's possible that a line full of veterans would perform better, right? Anything is possible, but one dangerous Raider may take full advantage of a an injured, shuffled Ravens offensive line: Khalil Mack. Mack has yet to record a sack this season, but he has faced far more mobile quarterbacks during weeks 1 through 3 in Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Marcus Mariota. Joe Flacco isn't the least mobile quarterback in the NFL, but he has taken a lot of hits this season because of his insistence on standing in the pocket and holding on to the football. The Ravens would ordinarily take pressure off of Flacco with a strong rushing attack, but they've failed to get anything going on the ground consistently thus far due to what appear to be largely schematic issues. If there was ever a time to get Baltimore's quick passing game going, it would be this Sunday.
There are still great reasons for Ravens fans to be hopeful going into Sunday's game. The first is the return of Elvis Dumervil to strengthen what is already the second ranked defense in the league, and it's a very close second. Dumervil's speed will be particularly useful when containing and pursuing Derek Carr on third downs. The Ravens have already gone up against and stifled elite receivers such as Allen Hurns and Sammy Watkins. They're now charged with the task of containing Amari Cooper. Cooper burned the Ravens last season, but that was a Ravens defense that featured inept safeties and an incomplete pass rush. Terrell Suggs is back in his old, disruptive form, Eric Weddle has taken charge of and solidified a secondary that had struggled miserably for the past two seasons, Brandon Williams and Timmy Jernigan have been absolutely fierce up front, and C.J. Mosley and Zachary Orr have combined to make the most complete pair of Ravens inside linebackers in years. The Ravens have dramatically more talent and depth at cornerback than they have for the past two seasons--so much so that one of their most talented corners Will Davis hasn't even seen the field yet.
Baltimore's defense should give its offense plenty of opportunities to get something started against a Raiders defense that allowed an average of 34.5 points through the first two weeks of the season. Marc Trestman must call plays to get the ball out of Joe's hands and into the hands of his targets as rapidly as possible. This means well-executed screen passes to the likes of Perriman, Wallace, and Moore, as well as short and intermediate routes to Pitta and Smith Sr. Getting a rhythm going in the quick passing game should help to neutralize a pass rush and hopefully open up running lanes for Terrence West. West, by the way, should be the only running back touching the football. Justin Forsett sadly no longer possesses the burst and power to make defenders miss or breaks tackles. Flacco was able to establish a quick passing rhythm last week against a far more talented Jaguars pass defense, so I have faith they'll be able to do so against the Raiders. It is, however, important that they find ways to finish drives. The Ravens have scored a disturbingly low number of offensive touchdowns thus far, which is a testament to the strength of their defense, but they can't keep up that pace and expect to beat winning teams.
If the Ravens are able to beat the Raiders in Baltimore on Sunday, they'll likely need to keep up their pace of turnovers and quarterback pressure. The Ravens already have as many interceptions through three games as they did all last season, and they'll likely need at least two timely interceptions to halt the rhythm of Derek Carr and his talented young receiving corps. A win over the 2-1 Raiders would also begin to lend credibility to the Ravens impressive start. It seems to matter not in the minds of many commentators and writers that the Ravens are 3-0 despite already having played two games on the road. They insist that a large reason the Ravens remain unbeaten is the weak list of opponents they've faced thus far. Strength of schedule undoubtedly played a role in their current record, but every team faces mediocre competition over the course of a season, and even teams regarded as not being good still have the capacity to upset elite teams at any point. The Jaguars, for example, only narrowly lost to the Packers 27-23, and Buffalo just finished destroying the Cardinals 33-18. Wins are incredibly difficult to achieve in the NFL, and the bad teams are never nearly as bad as you might believe them to be.
The NFL may be filled with upsets and parity on any given weekend, but the Ravens need to start finding ways to utilize their array of dynamic offensive weapons and win by more than a single score. This Raiders team offers a great chance to do exactly that and earn greater respect from doubters across the country. The potential for this team is extremely high because of a ferocious defense, fantastic special teams units, and offensive weapons with explosive capability, but they'll need all three phases to produce in order to beat the likes of the Patriots, Eagles, and Steelers. Fortunately for John Harbaugh and company, the Ravens' fast start has meant losing a game or two here and there won't absolutely destroy their hopes of making the post season. Doing damage once they get INTO the post season, however, will require that they simply get better at running the football, protecting Flacco, and finishing drives. Hopefully we'll feel better about their ability to do all three of those things after this weekend.
WEEK 4 NFL PICKS
COLTS AT JAGUARS- The Colts have been perplexingly bad, and Andrew Luck's talent no longer seems nearly enough to carry them to exciting wins. The Jaguars have had a rough start to their year, but they've faced two Super Bowl MVPs already. They'll finally manage a win here. JAGUARS 27-23
TITANS AT TEXANS- Neither of these teams is particularly impressive. My gut tells me this could be an upset, but my rule of thumb is to go with the home team in situations such as this. TEXANS 20-14
BROWNS AT REDSKINS- These teams suffer from many of the same issues year after year. Both organizations have had no idea how to build a program for years despite having some extremely talented players on their rosters. Both have had a seemingly endless carousel of quarterbacks and head coaches, but at least the Redskins made it to the playoffs a couple of times in the last 5 years. The Browns played a hard-fought game against the Dolphins last week but ended up losing in overtime. The Redskins, on the other hand, finally found their way into the win column against a formidable Giants team. The Redskins should beat the Browns at home. REDSKINS 31-20
SEAHAWKS AT THE JETS- Russell Wilson plans to play this weekend, but he'll likely be far less mobile, and it's his mobility that makes him successful. Ryan Fitzpatrick should bounce back from an embarrassing 6 interception performance, and his targets should find some success against even an impressive Seattle secondary. Home-field advantage should help the Jets tremendously in this one, but this should be a battle. JETS 23-20
BILLS AT PATRIOTS- I can't see how the Bills will be able to move against one of the best defenses in the NFL...in Foxboro...without Sammy Watkins. The Patriots quarterback options for this week are both dealing with injuries, but I have a feeling we'll see Jimmy Garoppolo tough it out after a week of rest. No question that I'd like to see the Patriots drop one here before Brady gets back, but their defense has simply proven too strong thus far. I would LOVE to be wrong about this one. PATRIOTS 33-17
PANTHERS AT FALCONS- The Panthers defense has been solid thus far, but their offense has mysteriously vanished in 2 of their first 3 games. The Falcons offense, on the other hand, has taken off for the first time since Tony Gonzalez retired. The Falcons scored an average of 40 points per game in the last two weeks on the road, and they should be riding some serious momentum as they return home. FALCONS 35-28
RAIDERS AT RAVENS- The Ravens are not the only ones with offensive line issues. The Raiders will be missing not only their starting right tackle but also their backup right tackle when they take the first in Baltimore tomorrow. Elvis Dumervil should absolutely feast on that side. The Raiders ultimately don't have the type of defense to stop even an inconsistent Ravens offense in Baltimore. The Raiders offense was held to only 17 points on the road by the Titans last week and the Ravens defense is vastly superior to that of Tennessee. This still won't make Ravens fans comfortable, but a win will ultimately make them happy. RAVENS 27-21
LIONS AT BEARS- There is absolutely nothing about the Bears that would convince me they could win this game. LIONS 38-19
BRONCOS AT BUCCANEERS- I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Bucs pull an upset here, but the Broncos defense travels well to low altitudes, and Siemian is performing better than any quarterback has for Denver in the past two seasons. BRONCOS 30-28
RAMS AT CARDINALS- The Cardinals haven't been what I thought they'd be thus far, but they're still better than the Rams. CARDINALS 23-14
SAINTS AT CHARGERS- The Saints will have trouble stopping Philip Rivers 3000 miles from the bayou. CHARGERS 42-35
COWBOYS AT 49ERS- The 49ers will struggle against a powerful Cowboys offensive line. The 49ers defense is one of the very worst in the NFL and has been absolutely blasted for the past two weeks. COWBOYS 34-21
CHIEFS AT STEELERS- The Steelers defense is banged up and the Chiefs are rolling, but I'm betting on Ben Roethlisberger having a bounce-back week at home. STEELERS 27-20
GIANTS AT VIKINGS- The Vikings defense has dominated a pair of playoff teams from last season, and it should be able to do just enough to stop the Giants. I have no idea how a team with this many key injuries is undefeated, but I have to give major credit to their coaching staff for rolling with the punches to a 3-0 record. VIKINGS 24-21
THIS SHOULD BE A GREAT WEEK TO UNLEASH THE OFFENSIVE WEAPONS THE RAVENS HAVE STOCKPILED THIS OFF SEASON. BALTIMORE IS FACING THE NFL'S WORST DEFENSE AT HOME, AND THE RAVENS DEFENSE IS HEALTHY AND READY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF WEAKNESSES ON THE RAIDERS OFFENSIVE LINE.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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