The last two weeks have felt painfully similar to most of last season for Ravens fans. Many teams would be happy about starting the season 3-2, but the first 3 wins of the Ravens' season were won by such slim margins and with such uneven offensive production that being undefeated through three weeks meant little going forward. The defense has held some highly ranked pass offenses in check, but no currently in the league is good enough to win games with the level of offensive production that Marc Trestman was able to create.
I have faith that Marty Mornhinweg will utilize the Ravens' weapons to a far greater degree than Marc Trestman ever did, but this week scares me for issues beyond the scope of Mornhinweg's control. There was no question that a significant number of starting offensive linemen were likely going to sit this out this week when the Ravens quickly signed two backup guards. The Ravens have spent the last two weeks without Ronnie Stanley, and those have been the two weeks they've lost impossibly narrow games rather than WINNING impossibly narrow games. There's no question that his health is a major key to the Ravens offensive success this season. What is more troubling, however, is that Marshal Yanda, the top guard in football for years now, is doubtful to suit up on Sunday. To make matters worse, starting right tackle, Rick Wagner, didn't practice most of the week, and even if he's able to suit up, he may very well be injured and less effective than usual.
It's difficult to imagine an offensive coordinator finding tremendous success in his first week running the unit with three starting offensive linemen questionable or doubtful. Fortunately for the Ravens, a Giants team awaits them that is on an even bigger skid than what Baltimore has just experienced. The Giants began the season with wins over the now red-hot Cowboys and the Saints, and I wasn't the only one who assumed Eli Manning and company were going to once again contend for a playoff spot. Over the last 3 weeks, however, the Giants offense has struggled just as hard as the Ravens offense against decent defensive opponents. New York has, for example, averaged just 13 points per game in the last two weeks against the Vikings and Packers. Also like the Ravens, the Giants, even in victory, struggled to find an offensive rhythm and only barely squeaked by 20-19 in Week 1 and 16-13 in Week 2.
If there weren't already enough similarities between these two teams, the Giants have some major injury concerns of their own. The Giants will not have their starting right tackle on Sunday or their free starting free safety. Both starting corners, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Eli Apple are questionable as is Jason Pierre-Paul. These injuries could prove pivotal, but they don't appear nearly as extensive as those to the Ravens' starting offense.
The Ravens offensive line isn't the only unit with significant injuries. Elvis Dumervil does not appear to be fully recovered from his offseason surgery, and Matt Judon will likely have to play a significant number of snaps in his place. This isn't the worst thing in the world, however, as Judon has impressive speed and will likely be more effective than an injured Dumervil. Steve Smith Sr. is doubtful to play after injuring his ankle during last week's game, but Kamar Aiken has already proven he's fully capable of stepping up in Sr.'s absence.
The keys to this game will be pressure on both Eli Manning and Joe Flacco. Both men are former Super Bowl MVP's and have displayed downright heroic levels of post-season execution, but both have also since struggled to find consistent production in the regular season over the past several years. Both men have impressive receiving weapons at their disposal, but for one reason or another, neither has been able to connect with their weapons consistently enough to find the endzone consistently. The Ravens should have a defensive upper hand as they boast the third ranked defense in the league, but they'll be without C.J. Mosley, and that could be a major issue. Mosley isn't spectacular in pass coverage, but he's great against the run and an excellent pass rusher when sent on a blitz. Mosley has also displayed a knack for the ball with two key interceptions on the season, one that put the Browns' chances of a comeback away. The Ravens will have to shift things around between Albert McClellan and Kamalei Correa to make up for Mosley's absence.
The Ravens offense with backups at key positions on the offensive line and the direction of Marty Mornhinweg is truly an unknown commodity. I'd like to think that the new energy Marty had reportedly brought to the offense and its personnel would be enough to spark a big day against a lackluster team, but the truth is that Marty is starting the game with a questionable hand. The Ravens defense will likely keep the team in this game, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Ravens offense find at least some degree of success against the 22nd ranked pass defense. That success, however, will only come if Mornhinweg is able to first establish an effective rushing attack to take pressure off of Flacco and compensate for the absence of Ronnie Stanley and Marshal Yanda. I would not be surprised to see New York pick on backup offensive linemen and ruin Marty's debut, but hopefully it won't come to that. This is an extremely winnable game, and the Giants have only beaten the Ravens once in team history during the 2008 season. This may not be the week the Ravens fully turn the corner, but they have a decent shot to at least get back on track against another struggling team with many similar issues.
THE PICKS
49ERS AT BILLS- It's possible starting Colin Kaepernick could jumpstart the 49ers, but it's probably not going to happen on the road against a team as hot as the Bills. Buffalo has been on a tear since firing its offensive coordinator after the Week 2 loss to the Jets. BILLS 33-21
EAGLES AT REDSKINS- The Eagles are a far better team than the Redskins. The Skins may have beaten a team determined to give them the game last week, but that won't mean much when facing one of the best, most complete teams in the NFC and the NFL. EAGLES 28-19
BROWNS AT TITANS- The Browns have lost some tough games against some good teams, but they simply get make plays when the game is on the line. TITANS 24-17
RAVENS AT GIANTS- I prey the Ravens make me look stupid with this prediction, but I don't like Baltimore's chances with such a banged up offensive line. The Ravens haven't won a game without Ronnie Stanley on the field, but no Ronnie Stanley and no Marshal Yanda means a bad day for Flacco. The Ravens defense will look good for most of this game, but there are too many dangerous Giants receiving threats that eventually someone will start making plays. Again...Mornhinweg makes me look like a fool, but I can't trust they'll suddenly find an offensive rhythm without their two best offensive linemen and a brand new OC. GIANTS 23-17
PANTHERS AT SAINTS- The Panthers are one of the worst teams in the league this season, and I can't see things improving against a Saints team that has scored a sensational number of points thus far. Josh Norman may not have been the answer to all of D.C.'s woes, but he was a big reason the Panthers won football games last season. SAINTS 38-31
JAGURARS AT BEARS- These are two depressingly bad teams, but at least the Bears have won a home game. The Jaguars haven't won on the road. There's a ton of young talent on the Jags, but they simply haven't played well enough as a unit. BEARS 20-17
RAMS AT LIONS- The Rams have been a solid road team thus far. The Lions hope they can make Justin Forsett work, but we all watched him fail to display the burst and lateral quickness that got him to a Pro Bowl 2 seasons ago. I like Justin though, and so I'm predicting his team will lose...mostly because the one time I picked the Rams to win, they lost. RAMS 27-21
STEELERS AT DOLPHINS- This isn't a game the Steelers should lose, but they won't most the ball that easily, at least not at first, against the Dolphins D. STEELERS 28-17
BENGALS AT PATRIOTS- I loathe the Patriots, but they're the best team in the AFC right now if not the league. It's fun to watch the Bengals collapse after the departure of the one offensive coordinator whose system and play-calling made Red Rocket actually look like a legit QB. Get ready to be 2-4, Cincy. PATRIOTS 35-16
CHIEFS AT RAIDERS- The Chiefs have not won a game on the road. They look horrible on the road and they're about to face a serious Raiders team. RAIDERS 31-20
FALCONS AT SEAHAWKS- The Falcons are rolling, and if the Broncos defense can't stop them, I can't imagine the Seahawks will have too much success, but the Seahawks will still make this interesting. FALCONS 30-27
COWBOYS AT PACKERS- Aaron Rodgers is about one solid receiving target short of having a consistently effective offense. The Pack has lost to the one team with a winning record that they've played thus far. I know very well that Lambeau is a tough environment to visit, but it's too early in the year for the weather to make that much of a difference. The Cowboys offensive line is too good to lose to a team that can't stop them or match them score for score. COWBOYS 28-21
COLTS AT TEXANS- The Texans haven't won on the road, but they also haven't yet lost at home. This is another down year for the Colts, and they've lost both of their road games thus far. TEXANS 23-17
JETS AT CARDINALS- The Jets are screwed without Eric Decker. The Cardinals aren't great, but they should win this one at home against a team with a single win on the year. CARDINALS 19-14
LOSING THIS GAME WOULDN'T MEAN THE RAVENS ARE OUT OF THE PLAYOFF RACE. THEY SIMPLY MUST GET SOME OFFENSIVE LINEMEN BACK HEALTHY AND BEAT THE JETS THE FOLLOWING WEEK BEFORE THEIR BYE WEEK. I ACTUALLY THINK THERE'S A DECENT SHOT THEY BEAT A STRUGGLING GIANTS TEAM, BUT THERE ARE TWO MANY UNKNOWNS FOR ME TO THROW THEM A VOTE OF CONFIDENCE IN THEIR FIRST WEEK WITH A NEW OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR. LET'S HOPE I'M PROVEN HORRIBLY WRONG.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
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