The Ravens have one last chance to add another win against an opponent with a losing record before their by week, and then they'll face a significant increase in strength of schedule as they head into the second half of the season. It's not that the Redskins and Raiders were bad teams as both currently possess winning records, but each game was easily winnable. Last week's game against the Giants went mostly as I expected with a narrow Giants win that could have been prevented had Harbaugh once again simply taken points when he could get them instead of going for it on 4th and 1 from the goal line after being stonewalled on the first 3 attempts to muscle the ball in long before the waning minutes of the game. That decision-making sequence exemplifies perhaps the biggest issue that has plagued the Ravens for years now: John Harbaugh's inability to consistently and effectively manage games.
Many people point back to the last 3 seasons since the Ravens won their last Super Bowl as a down period following what had been an incredibly successful first 5 seasons of the Harbaugh-Flacco era. Some people blamed Ozzie Newsome for whiffing hard on a handful of notable early picks in multiple drafts including Sergio Kindle, Terrance Cody, Matt Elam, and Arthur Brown, but you'll find many high draft picks across the league don't pan out for teams. Would it have been nice if each one of those picks had been impact players? Of course, but far too many games could have been won with the talent that the Ravens had on hand were it not for several bone-headed decisions in nearly all of the Ravens losses over the last 4 seasons.
Harbaugh's most glaring error in judgment has been his aforementioned tendency to as he puts it "aggressive" in 4th and short situations. His lack of sound reasoning in that realm this season has been particularly egregious as he has failed to make note of a couple of factors. The first is that the Ravens have statistically only converted on 4th and short on less than one third of their attempts in 2016. The second is that converting on 4th and short on the goal line is not the same as converting on 4th and short in the middle of the field. Converting on 4th and short in the middle of the field allows some of your players to run deeper routes to stretch an opposing defense and get better separation if the quarterback needs to roll out of the pocket and buy some time as Flacco did in his successful 22 yard pass to Kamar Aiken on 4th down last weekend. On the goal line, however, Harbaugh has felt that being aggressive means trying to muscle the ball across using either a quarterback sneak or simply handing off the ball to a tailback with the fullback leading the way. The problem with that approach last Sunday was that the Giants actually possess a top 10 defense against the run...oh and they had just finished stuffing the Ravens 3 consecutive times leading up to that 4th down attempt.
Harbaugh also failed to take into account his personnel once the Ravens got within several yards of the goal line. I understand full that Terrence West is a terrific power back with the ability to both make defenders miss and break tackles, but few backs can do much when their offensive linemen aren't able to get any push at the point of attack. The Ravens were out 3 of their starting 5 offensive linemen, and the backups were simply physically outmatched all day long. They got called for holding because they couldn't sustain blocks legally, and they were less than useless at imposing their will in situations where the Giants knew the Ravens intended to run the football. At least one short passing attempt should have been made on second or third down to a tight end or the fullback, but the Ravens, instead, continued to unsuccessfully in their attempts to plow forward. It's true that West probably walks into the endzone if the Ravens fullback simply makes and sustains his block on that 4th down outside run, but after 3 unsuccessful attempts to run the football from inside the 3 yard line, wouldn't it have made sense to take guaranteed points instead of coming up with nothing when failing to do so has come back to haunt you in so very many games over the past 4 years? I'd hope that Harbaugh would consider how few points the Ravens have scored this season and take any chance he can get to add to that total, but he clearly has had a different thought process.
Harbaugh also has made a habit of squandering second half timeouts and, thus, hampers any ability at a comeback drive in the waning minutes of the game. Adolescents who play too much Madden have a better gauge for clock management than Harbaugh. Sure, Flacco was not exactly accurate during the Ravens final drive of last week's game, but going into that drive with one timeout instead of three meant the Ravens were far more limited in the types of plays they could run to keep the drive moving, and it meant Terrence West couldn't really be part of the process.
Harbaugh's success as a head coach has had little to do with his gamesmanship and a lot to do with the sheer level of talent he inherited when joining the organization. If the Ravens do end up once again missing the playoffs and firing Harbaugh, it would be wise to consider hiring a head coach with experience as an offensive coordinator. Harbaugh's idea of being "aggressive" is simply being reckless with a poorly considered approach. He might be a good manager of people, but in observable decisions that are undeniably his calls to make Harbaugh has demonstrated his inability to play the odds in situations that ultimately end up meaning the difference between winning and losing tightly contested games.
If the Ravens can't beat a Jets teams mired in personnel issues, there's probably little hope that Baltimore can salvage a season that features upcoming games against the Eagles, Steelers, Cowboys, and Patriots. The return of both of the Ravens starting offensive tackles gives hope that they'll be able to protect Flacco and open up running lanes for Terrance West. The Jets have a strong defensive line, but their secondary has proven suspect at times this season. The key against the Jets will be buying time to allow Mike Wallace, Kamar Aiken, and Breshad Perriman to get open, especially deep down field. We've seen the previously elite Darrelle Revis get absolutely torched in one on one coverage this season, and the Ravens would be wise to attack him with Wallace and Perriman on vertical routes. If the game is ultimately lost because of more miscalculations in clock management and errors in judgment regarding settling for field goals, expect Harbaugh to be called into an angry meeting with Steve Bisciotti on Monday. There is no more room for error. He needs to lead his team to a decisive, lopsided victory over a struggling team, or else face the fact that his team may not get to 8 wins again in what could be his last season as head coach of the Ravens. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
THE PICKS
GIANTS AT RAMS- The Rams have probably been a better team than the Giants thus far this season, but it appeared as though the Giants finally found their rhythm when they went to a no-huddle, hurry-up offense last week against the Ravens. The injury to Odell Beckham's hip will likely be the big factor holding them back, but they still have other talented receivers. GIANTS 20-17
SAINTS AT CHIEFS- The Saints have looked frighteningly explosive at times on offense this season, but their defense hasn't been nearly strong enough to win a significant number of games. The Chiefs impressed me with their huge road win in Oakland last week, and they should find similar success against the Saints at home. CHIEFS 28-21
COLTS AT TITANS- The Titans have finally found themselves on a roll and will beat a struggling Colts team. TITANS 30-17
VIKINGS AT EAGLES- It's difficult to imagine even a highly talented rookie QB moving the ball consistently on this Vikings defense that may go down as one of the very best defenses of the past 20 years. VIKINGS 24-20
BROWNS AT BENGALS- With Tyler Eifert back, the Bengals should win a hard-fought divisional matchup. As bad as the Browns' record is, this actually will be quite a fight. BENGALS 27-23
REDSKINS AT LIONS- The Redskins will likely come back down to earth when they go on the road against a Lions team that has truly found its rhythm offensively as of late. LIONS 31-28
RAIDERS AT JAGUARS- The Raiders are simply the better team. RAIDERS 33-21
BILLS AT DOLPHINS- This is probably the most difficult game to predict. Divisional matchups are already tough to read, but the Dolphins are coming off of a huge win over the Steelers at home. The Bills have been on fire recently and haven't lost since replacing their offensive coordinator. They're the more complete team, but I'd like to see a Dolphins win. BILLS 27-20
RAVENS AT JETS- It's easy to doubt the Ravens considering their recent string of losses, but each one of those losses has one thing in common: no Ronnie Stanley. One more week with Marty Mornhinweg calling the offense and the return of starters to the offensive line should be enough to tilt this in favor of Baltimore, but this will, once again, be uncomfortably close. Eric Decker's season-ending injury is likely the factor that will allow the Ravens to have a good defensive game. RAVENS 23-17
BUCCANEERS AT 49ERS- Chip Kelly needs to go back to college for good. BUCCANEERS 35-21
CHARGERS AT FALCONS- This is not a game the Chargers can win in Atlanta. FALCONS 38-24
PATRIOTS AT STEELERS- No Ben and too many defensive injuries will mean another bad day for the Steelers. PATRIOTS 34-14
SEAHAWKS AT CARDINALS- The Seahawks always struggle early in the season but it appears as though they've once again righted the ship. The Cardinals are too shaky for my vote of confidence. If the Seahawks can edge the Falcons, they can stifle the Cardinals. SEAHAWKS 27-19
TEXANS AT BRONCOS- The Texans aren't nearly offensively effective enough to go into Denver and win this game. BRONCOS 28-14
THIS RAVENS SEASON IS STARTING TO FEEL PAINFULLY SIMILAR TO THE LAST ONE. INJURIES, POOR DECISIONS FROM THE HEAD COACH AND SUSPECT COORDINATION HAVE ONCE AGAIN MADE THE DIFFERENCE IN INCREDIBLY CLOSE, HARD FOUGHT GAMES. IF HARBAUGH CAN'T RIGHT THE SHIP AGAINST ARGUABLY THE WORST TEAM LEFT ON THE RAVENS SCHEDULE, THEN HEADS NEED TO ROLL. MORNHINWEG DID SHOW A MARKED UPGRADE OVER TRESTMAN, HOWEVER, AND HE'S GOT BETTER PERSONNEL TO PLAY WITH THIS WEEKEND.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
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