National respect for the the Ravens has not surprisingly crept up over the past 6 weeks. Baltimore's 5-1 record during that span is certainly reason to regard them as one of the hottest teams heading into the post-season. Many have credited the success to the major upswing in rushing production with the changing of the guard from Joe Flacco to Lamar Jackson. There's no question that the Jackson-led offense has allowed the Ravens to control the clock and keep their own defense and opposing offenses off the field, but one has to examine the health of the team and available personnel over the course of this season to truly understand the Ravens' highs and lows.
Too many people looked at the mid-season slump the Ravens experienced and suggested that it was the result of Joe Flacco being "finished." Closer examination of the available personnel during the Ravens' losses, however, reveals a starkly different narrative. Casual fans ignore the fact that Ravens top corner Marlon Humphrey and 3 of the Ravens 5 starting offensive linemen went down during the mid-season slump. To add to that, Jimmy Smith made his return a week after Humphrey was injured, and it took weeks for him to round into reasonable form. It's no surprise the Ravens sputtered against the Panthers without legitimate pass protection for Joe, and it's no surprise that the Ravens struggled to edge the Saints without Marlon Humphrey to cover Michael Thomas.
I am in no way suggesting that the Ravens should now put the ball back in Joe Flacco's hands--it's clear they have absolutely no intention of returning him to starter status. I am, instead, pointing to something else that will make this Ravens team incredibly dangerous going into the playoffs if they handle business on Sunday against the Browns. The Ravens are healthy. It matters not how strong or hot a team is through the first half or even the first 3 quarters of a season. As Baltimore has shown the world, it only matters that a team makes it to the playoffs and that they're healthy when they do so. I repeat: the Baltimore Ravens are healthy. They are as healthy as a professional football team could conceivably be at this point in the season, and it has allowed them to physically bully not only mediocre and bad teams but also the Chargers last weekend.
The health of a team can change in an instant, and it thus requires tremendous fortune to stay relatively healthy all the way through to the Super Bowl. It is for this reason that I don't like the idea of run-first quarterback as a long-term solution for any professional team. It's easy to become enamored with the electric playmaking ability of a guy who runs a 4.3 forty yard dash as has been seen with the likes of Michael Vick and RG3, but on a long enough timeline, running the football leads to frequent injuries. That isn't to say that a mobile quarterback can't win a Super Bowl, but Lamar Jackson's game will have to quickly evolve to mirror that of Russell Wilson if he wants to both stay healthy and find long-term success in this league.
At least for this season Ravens fans shouldn't worry about Lamar Jackson becoming injured. It's not that he is somehow impervious to bodily harm, but his backup is one of NFL history's greatest playoff quarterbacks. Joe Flacco almost certainly won't play for the Baltimore Ravens next season, but they aren't about to cut him now. If the Ravens find themselves down 10-14 points in the 4th quarter of any game going forward, they may, in fact, turn to old Joe to conserve clock and mount a comeback. In any event, this is a Ravens team that now has both the ability to run the football whilst chewing up clock AND light up opposing secondaries through the air late if need be.
I stepped back from writing for weeks to fully observe what the Ravens have in Jackson and their new look offense. It seemed foolish initially to draw major conclusions from Lamar's first few wins against struggling teams with atrocious defenses. In many cases, timely touchdowns from the defense and special teams helped to put away teams late when Lamar couldn't lead his team into the endzone. That very same scenario occurred against the Chargers last Saturday as well, but it's safe to suggest that the defense is far less exhausted and thus more prone impact plays and turnovers because time-consuming drives from Jackson and company have kept them fresh on the sidelines. Lamar even threw for 200+ yards against a fast, widely feared Chargers defense, and that gives me reason to believe that he's getting better every single week he starts.
The Baltimore Ravens may not be the best team in the NFL at this moment, but it's difficult for me to think of any team in the AFC that is significantly more well-equipped for a post-season run than a team that can run the football on virtually anyone and play defense better than literally any team in the league. Now all that's left to do is beat the Browns. How hard could that be, right? Oh. Right. They're kind of awesome now too. Welp, time to break out the defibrillator lest the people watching next to me realize I've gone down with a major cardiac event because Baker Mayfield ruined the end of my year.
WEEK 17 PICKS
DISCLAIMER: A sizable number of this week's games feature no playoff teams or possible playoff teams and are, therefore, without legitimate motivation for either team to win. It would, in fact, behoove any team that can't go to the playoffs to lose as it moves their draft placement up. It is for this reason that I will separate relevant from irrelevant games for this week.
IRRELEVANT GAMES
DOLPHINS AT BILLS- The Miami Dolphins were quite an enigma this season. They began the season 3-0 and then proceeded to beat both the Bears and Patriots at later points, but they fell two wins short of legitimate playoff contention going into the final week of the season. The Bills' season went even worse at 5-10, and they already lost to the Dolphins in Miami a month ago. The Dolphins' 1-6 road record, however, is both the biggest reason they will miss the playoffs and the biggest reason to believe they'll fall to the Bills in Week 17. BILLS 23-17
LIONS AT PACKERS- The Matt Patricia experiment didn't quite go as planned as the Lions have gone 5-10 thus far, but far more shocking was the fact that the Packers went 6-8-1. Aaron Rodgers' once-in-generation talent wasn't enough to will his team to a playoff berth in 2018. This only reinforces a view I've expressed to many that making even the most elite quarterback the highest paid player in the league is a recipe for disaster as the NFL salary cap is so low that doing so means not being able to pay for talent at many other vitally important positions. The Ravens did it, Falcons did it, and now the Packers did it, and not a single one of those franchises have seen the same level of success since the respective record-setting contracts were signed.
As with every game where the outcome has no bearing on the post-season, the motivation to win is questionable as it hurts draft position, but for a franchise with a new head coach, such as the Lions, an opportunity to show growth and progress by ending the season with a win is a tremendous incentive. Dome teams don't typically fare particularly well in harsh outdoor environments such as Lambeau Field in late December. The Lions have also fallen off the map from an offensive standpoint as the last time they scored 20 or more points was 6 weeks ago. The last time these two teams faced one another, the Lions won 31-23 as Detroit capitalized early on mistakes made by Green Bay. Rodgers still threw for nearly 450 yards and 3 touchdowns, and it is for that reason that I believe he won't struggle the second time around to shred Detroit's secondary and give his home crowd a reason for optimism leading into next season. This will still be a hard fought game.
PACKERS 28-21
FALCONS AT BUCCANEERS- The Falcons have, as I mentioned before, proven that throwing a mega contract at a quarterback doesn't magically improve your team--in fact it tends to ruin a team's chances at success. It is for that reason that teams need to reconsider the popular adage that "this is a pass-driven league, so you need a franchise quarterback to be successful." It isn't a horrible thing to have someone you'd consider to be your franchise quarterback, but you'll likely not experience championship-winning success with him if you've broken the bank to keep him around. The Ravens, Seahawks, and Eagles showed in the last 6 years that having a talented quarterback on an inexpensive rookie contract allows a team to have enough cap space to surround the young signal caller with enough talent to win a Super Bowl. Even the veteran quarterbacks who have won Super Bowls in the last 6 years, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, were on relatively cap-friendly deals at the later stages in their careers to allow their respective teams to retain such players as Darrelle Revis and Von Miller.
The Buccaneers have had the misfortune of facing three likely playoff-bound teams over the past 3 weeks, while the Falcons have put together back to back wins as of late over two relatively inept teams. The fact that this game is in Tampa may be enough to tip the scales in favor of the Bucs, but something tells me the Falcons are set to ride their recent momentum into a season-ending road win in a warm road environment.
FALCONS 33-27
RELEVANT GAMES
JETS AT PATRIOTS- The Patriots have clinched their own division, but they can't afford to rest their starters as they still have a chance to lose their #2 seed status if they lose and the Texans win. The Jets have lost some painfully close games to competitive teams, but they don't match up well with the Patriots--and this game will be in Foxboro.
PATRIOTS 31-17
PANTHERS AT SAINTS- Without Cam Newton the Panthers can't find a way to win. SAINTS 24-13
COWBOYS AT GIANTS- The Giants have been as bad at home as the Cowboys have been on the road this season, but a win or loss this week will not change the Cowboys' playoff seeding. Jason Garrett says that healthy players will play, but I have a feeling that the Cowboys won't force the issue if they find themselves down. Tough to imagine Cowboys players being anxious to play their hearts out in a totally meaningless game. Let the Giants have their fun this week.
GIANTS 23-21
JAGUARS AT TEXANS- The Texans dominated the Jaguars 20-7 earlier this season in Jacksonville, so it's difficult to imagine a tremendously different outcome in Houston. The Jags have fallen the hardest of any team considered elite last season, and it's not entirely clear why that happened. The Texans overcame an incredibly rough 0-3 start to the season to find themselves winners of 9 of their last 11 games, but their two losses during that stretch have come within the last 3 weeks. The rcent loss of Demaryius Thomas doesn't render the Texans totally useless, but it certainly takes them down a notch as a Super Bowl contender. The Texans will smack around the Jaguars again because they have to win to ensure they lock up their own division, but I don't see them advancing to the AFC Championship this post-season.
TEXANS 27-17
CHARGERS AT BRONCOS- The Chargers have the misfortune of being in the same division as the Chiefs. The Chargers, in fact, BEAT the Chiefs two weeks ago, but still lose out through tie breakers to Kansas City. It's highly unlikely that the Chiefs will drop a game to the Raiders at home this week, but maybe the chance that they could is enough to give the Chargers motivation to take care of business against the Broncos in order to possibly leapfrog the Chiefs for the #1 overall seed in the AFC.
On the other hand, if the Chargers are TRULY smart, they'll scrap the idea of desperately playing for something they likely won't get and will sit their starters because doing so will serve as a functional bye week. They also have been so good on the road this season that home-field advantage is less of a factor as it would be for many other teams. I fully expect, however, that the Chargers will play to win this game, while the Broncos are better off losing. It must be noted that the Broncos narrowly upset the Chargers in L.A. earlier this season.
CHARGERS 23-20
RAIDERS AT CHIEFS- The Chiefs only beat the Raiders by a touchdown in L.A. a month ago, but something tells me it won't be quite as close in Kansas City this time around. The Chiefs can't lose this game or they risk not only losing the #1 seed but also falling to wildcard team status. The loss of Kareem Hunt and lackluster defense doesn't give me confidence that the Chiefs will make a deep run in the post-season, but they'll handle business this week with a solid win over a team they already beat on the road.
CHIEFS 34-21
49ERS AT RAMS- The 49ers have won 2 of their last 3 to build a surprising amount of late-season momentum despite no shot at the playoffs. They beat the Broncos and surging Seahawks despite losing Jimmy Garoppolo early in the season. Despite their recent success, the 49ers do not match up well with the Rams who beat the 49ers in San Francisco earlier this season 39-10.
RAMS 30-16
BEARS AT VIKINGS- This is one of the few games this week that feature two teams vying for playoff position. The Bears have already clinched their division, but they have the opportunity to knock out a division rival if the Eagles also manage to win this week. The Vikings are 8-6-1 at the moment, but they risk going 8-7-1 and missing the playoffs entirely. The Bears also have an outside chance at leapfrogging the Rams in playoff seeding, so they'll have more than one motivation to win this game. The last game in Chicago between these two teams was a fairly close 25-20 win for the Bears, and Chicago hasn't produced much offensively as of late The Bears suffered 3 out of their 4 losses on the road, while the Vikings are 5-2 at home. Homefield advantage and a greater need to win should be enough to propel the Vikings to a narrow victory this week, but they're not good enough to make much of a run in the playoffs as a wildcard team.
VIKINGS 24-21
BENGALS AT STEELERS- Ravens fans know all too well how much the Bengals relish the opportunity to play spoiler to a division rival. With Andy Dalton in injured reserve, Vontaze Burfict doubtful to play, Tyler Boyd out, and A.J. Green not healthy, it's difficult to imagine that THIS Bengals team has remotely enough clout to get the job at the end of this season. The irony is that the Steelers can play their hearts out and absolutely dismantle the Bengals--and a Ravens win over the Browns will mean it will have been all for naught.
STEELERS 38-17
CARDINALS AT SEAHAWKS- This isn't an entirely meaningless game for the Seahawks as a loss coupled with a Vikings win would drop them from the 5th to the 6th seed in the NFC playoff bracket, but whether they win or lose, the Seahawks will be a wildcard playoff team. In light of that, it would greatly behoove them to sit their starters at least for the second half of this game. A functional bye week is dramatically more important than having the 5th as opposed to the 6th seed. Pete Carroll, however, disagrees. He believes that momentum is more important than having starters rested, so he insists he's going to play his starters.
SEAHAWKS 24-10
EAGLES AT REDSKINS- The Redskins were blown out by the Eagles a month ago and there's little reason they'd be able to beat a team desperately holding on for a chance to make the playoffs. Washington has some good pieces for next season, but there's simply not enough there to play spoiler this week.
EAGLES 28-17
BROWNS AT RAVENS- The Browns are 2-5 on the road this season, but both of their road wins have come during the last 6 weeks during which they've won 5 of their games. The problem is that literally all of the teams the Browns beat during that time are totally inept because of major injury issues. Two out of those 5 wins came against the Bengals who are missing most of their big name starters, one win came by a single point over a horrible Broncos team, one win came over the Panthers who haven't won in months, and another came against a Falcons team that has proved incredibly disappointing this season. When going up against a playoff team, the Texans, the Browns were soundly trounced 29-13. The Ravens may still struggle to produce offensively considering the propensity for Lamar Jackson's offense to score only a single touchdown per game, but the Ravens defense held the Browns to 12 points in Cleveland the first time these two teams met this season. Now the Ravens are limiting opposing teams possible possessions by chewing up game clock, and at the very least, they should be good for 16-20 points. This will be a slugfest of epic proportions, but the Ravens have stifled much better quarterbacks than Baker Mayfield this season; they're likely not going to let a rookie get the best of them in Baltimore. Oh, and if the Ravens find themselves down late with little time left...there is a guy they can turn to who knows how to run a two minute drill.
RAVENS 20-13
COLTS AT TITANS- This may be the most hotly contested game of the week as the winner will make the playoffs and the loser will not. Both teams sit at 9-6, but the Colts easily defeated the Titans when these two teams last met earlier this season. The Titans have won their last 4 games, but all of those wins came against non-playoff teams. The last two games the Titans played against playoff teams happened to be against Colts and Texans, and both Indy and Houston absolutely brutalized the Titans. The Colts have been red-hot as of late and were even able to beat the Texans in Houston several weeks ago. It's tough to imagine a Colts team that so easily dismantled the Titans a month ago suddenly falling to them just because they're playing on the road. It's fitting that this final showdown will be the Sunday night game, and hopefully it proves closer and more exciting than I anticipate.
COLTS 31-23
This week could prove a defining moment in the career of John Harbaugh. For the first phase his career, many people remarked that his team truly belonged to Ed Reed and Ray Lewis. It was suggested that Harbaugh simply walked into a fortunate situation, but he didn't offer any sort of offensive or defensive system of his own to put his stamp on the franchise. It's true that John isn't a guru of anything other than special teams, but he has done a great job of motivating his players and maintaining a sense of brotherhood and unity that many veteran players have stated they never felt in other organizations. All the Ravens have to do is win this week to lock up the division and secure a home playoff game the following weekend.
If, however, the Ravens fall in heartbreaking fashion to a Browns team with nothing left to play for other than pride and to play spoiler to a potential playoff team, John's legacy as a head coach will take a major hit. This is where we see what his organization is able to do when everything is on the line. Battling back into contention only to fall short in the end again simply won't do. They NEED to win right now.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Thursday, December 27, 2018
Sunday, November 4, 2018
STEELERS-RAVENS ANALYSIS AND WEEK 9 NFL PREDICTIONS
If one were to pick a common theme for the Ravens for each season since Baltimore last won a Super Bowl, it would probably be that they're a team always one or two injured players away from being great. Nearly every year the Ravens find themselves with one less quality corner or one less quality offensive lineman than would be required to win consistently in a league where wins and losses often come only by a single score and could have gone the other way were it not for one pivotal, controversial play. Part of this may stem from the Ravens missing on so many 2nd and 3rd round drafts picks in recent years, and part may also stem from the cap money tied up in the contracts of aging veterans who make far more than they're worth in the waning years of their careers.
Possibly the biggest reason, however, that the Ravens struggle so mightily to be anything beyond slightly above league average is the lack of a truly effective offensive system to elevate players. The Patriots, for example, were without Rob Gronkowski the last time they won a Super Bowl, but that did not stop them from mounting the most impressive comeback in Super Bowl history. It's not because Brady is more athletic or has a better arm than Joe Flacco, but he has been placed in a far more advanced system that he executes with surgical precision--a system where less-than-elite athletes such as Chris Hogan can find tremendous success. John Harbaugh brought with him no such system or philosophy. He, instead, brought with him his experience as a defensive backs and special teams coach. The Ravens typically have outstanding special teams play, and as important as that is, it's only one comparatively minor piece to the puzzle.
It's unfair to compare Harbaugh to Belichick, the greatest NFL coach of all time, but one can't help but wonder what things would be like if the Ravens were led by a man with a better set of schematic philosophies. Harbaugh insisted upon bringing back Marty Mornhinweg this season despite the fact that Steve Bisciotti's initial instinct was to replace the pass-happy offensive coordinator. Bisciotti's warning to Harbaugh was reportedly that if Marty didn't get the Ravens back to the playoffs in 2018, both Mornhinweg and Harbaugh would be fired together. I can certainly understand Harbaugh wanting continuity, especially since Joe Flacco also reportedly expressed his support of Mornhinweg, but the play-calling last week was incredibly tough to watch. It's understandable that an offensive line decimated by injuries would limit the Ravens' ability to move the football and put points on the board, but it's still difficult to see the rationale behind Mornhinweg's decisions and apparent thought process. He calls running plays where the Ravens almost never overload at the point of attack, and he still hasn't grasped the notion that this Ravens team must throw to open up the field for the run--it simply can't operate the other way around as it did in years past. Watching Alex Collins get buried in the backfield less than a second after taking the handoff was as depressing as it was infuriating.
Alex Collins hasn't suddenly become a bad running back. Both he and Buck Allen are effective when given the opportunity and running room. It's true that the Ravens don't have a bell cow elite running back the way they did with Ray Rice or Jamaal Lewis, but Collins shocked the NFL last season when he rushed for nearly 1000 yards and wasn't even the starter at the beginning of the season. Collins has even had success against the Pittsburgh during his time as a Raven, but it's difficult to imagine he'll find such success tomorrow when the Steelers come to town. Both the Ravens' starting offensive tackles will be out as neither has practiced all week. If I had to take a guess, Orlando Brown Jr. will start on the right side where he's nearly starting caliber already, and Alex Lewis will slide out to left tackle while another backup will take his place at left guard. I might be inclined to say that this setup could possibly work except that the Ravens center, despite being healthy, is probably the weakest link in the chain. I've said it before and I'll say it again: Matt Skura is too great of physical a drop-off from Ryan Jensen, and not adequately replacing last year's mauling starter will likely prove to be the biggest blunder by the Ravens player personnel department.
If the Ravens offense can't be particularly effective tomorrow, the burden will fall on a Ravens defense that looked atrocious for the past two weeks without Marlon Humphrey. Fortunately for Baltimore, it appears as though Marlon Humphrey will play tomorrow, and that will go a long way to limiting Antonio Brown. The Ravens will also miss Tim Williams, but they're so loaded with pass rushers including Matt Judon, Zadarius Smith, and Terrell Suggs that it's safe to assume Ben will feel some pressure off the edge tomorrow. Baltimore already showed it could handle the Steelers' weapons in Pittsburgh, and now they have another opportunity to do so in Baltimore. The problem is that the Ravens defense will wear down if the offense can't mount successful drives to keep the D off the field. It's also safe to say that the Steelers have gotten better since the last time these two teams faced one another.
I'd like to think that the return of the Ravens top corner along with homefield advantage and would be enough to tip things in favor of Baltimore, and I'd even like to think the Ravens will be ok without James Hurst at right tackle because Orlando Brown Jr. is such a talent. The absence of Ronnie Stanley, however, is more than the Ravens offensive line can withstand, especially because it will mean such a low level of talent at left guard as well. If Joe Flacco doesn't have time to throw and if the Ravens are even LESS effective opening up running lanes, it's difficult to see how they'll be able to see significant offensive success against a hard-nosed familiar foe.
In a league where a ton of teams have only 3 or 4 wins at this point, it's tough to count the Ravens out, but given the difficult schedule ahead of them, Sunday's game against Pittsburgh feels like a must-win contest. If you beat a team on the road, it seems only logical that you should be able to beat them at home. It is for this reason that I pray the Ravens rise to the occasion and handle their business before heading into the bye week to get healthy as the second half of the season looms. Missing key personnel doesn't always mean the Ravens will lose to the Steelers. Baltimore swept Pittsburgh in 2015 despite losing Joe Flacco, Steve Smith Sr. and Justin Forsett. Tomorrow's game will undoubtedly be similarly hard-fought, but something just scares me about how poorly the Ravens played against a Panthers team that is not nearly as good as they appeared last Sunday. The struggled to cover tight ends, and the Steelers have multiple athletic tight ends who can shred a defense if allowed to run free.
It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that Baltimore bounces back, but too many factors about this game make me uneasy. Without an offense that can sustain drives late in the game to burn up clock and keep the Steelers off the field, it's tough to see the Ravens stifling the Steelers' ability to mount a furious second half comeback. Hell, the Steelers may not even NEED to come back at all. One way or another, I can't in good conscience pick the Ravens to win this game, but let's hope they prove me wrong.
WEEK 9 NFL PICKS
BEARS AT BILLS- The Bears have only truly lost tough close games against quality teams thus far. The Bills are NOT a quality team. BEARS 31-17
CHIEFS AT BROWNS- Tough to see the Browns turning things around coming off the firing of their head coach and given the current state and track record of their team--also the this opponent. The Chiefs are scary. CHIEFS 42-20
JETS AT DOLPHINS- It's been a tough recent stretch for the Fins, but they already beat the Jets in New Jersey. It's tough to imagine them losing to an uneven Jets team in Miami. DOLPHINS 23-14
LIONS AT VIKINGS- Without Stefon Diggs, it's difficult to imagine the Lions falling to the Vikings even with the limited return of Dalvin Cook. Adam Thielen is certainly having an insane season with nearly 1000 receiving yards through only the first 9 games, but without Diggs on the field, the Lions will be able to keep Thielen doubled most of the day. LIONS 24-21
FALCONS AT REDSKINS- It's amazing just how far the Falcons have fallen less than two years since their appearance in a Super Bowl. Matt Ryan and company have lost both of their road games thus far this season, and the Redskins are 3-1 at home. This will be a good day for Washingtonians. REDSKINS 34-27
BUCCANEERS AT PANTHERS- The Buccaneers are an absolutely tire fire and the Panthers are gaining momentum, especially at home. PANTHERS 30-16
STEELERS AT RAVENS- John Harbaugh being on the hot seat won't mean much in a game where the Ravens are extremely short-handed on the offensive line--particularly on Flacco's blindside. If Flacco isn't comfortable in the pocket, he isn't accurate and this team doesn't run the ball well enough to take pressure off of him as it did in years past. The Ravens defense will fight mightily, but they can only stay on the field for so long. I'd like to think this will be hard-fought, but something tells me the Steelers will pull away late. I REEEEALLY hope I'm way off on this one. STEELERS 27-17
TEXANS AT BRONCOS- The Broncos teed off on the worst team in the NFL two weeks ago, but they've done nothing but lose otherwise for the past couple of months. The Texans, meanwhile, have been hitting their stride since they tailored their offense to their quarterback's skill set, and now they've added Demaryius Thomas just in time to take on his old team. TEXANS 35-20
CHARGERS AT SEAHAWKS- It's tough to know what to think about the Chargers. They're 5-2, but they've won a lot of close games over some rather questionable teams with the exception of their blowout of the Browns. The Seahawks are a shell of their former self, but they've won 4 of their last 5 games in pretty convincing fashion, and the only game they lost during that stretch was a 2 point loss to the unbeaten Rams. This could truly go either way, but it's still a bad idea to bet against the Seahawks at home, especially with their current level of momentum. SEAHAWKS 23-20
RAMS AT SAINTS- This is probably the best game of the week as it pits two of the league's top teams against one another in one of the toughest road venues. The Rams keep winning, but they do so by the skin of their teeth and often to teams with iffy records. Drew Brees has more to work with than Aaron Rodgers right now, and I have a feeling his game won't be fumbled away. SAINTS 36-33
PACKERS AT PATRIOTS- If the Rams and Saints game is the best game of the week, the Packers and Patriots might be the most heavily anticipated quarterback duel of the week. Aaron Rodgers has led his team to only 3 wins, but everyone can see they're much better than their record would suggest at this point. With that said, the Patriots are an electric 6-2 with big time recent wins over the powerhouse Chiefs and a strong Bears team. Rodgers typically has some magic in him, but he's going where almost no teams come out victorious (except sometimes the Ravens). PATRIOTS 38-27
TITANS AT COWBOYS- Neither of these teams is a legitimate contender, but the Titans are atrocious on the road. COWBOYS 24-13
I'M NOT HOLDING MY BREATH ON THE RAVENS' CHANCES TODAY, BUT THIS IS A FAMILIAR FOE THAT THEY'VE ALREADY BEATEN ON THE ROAD, AND MARLON HUMPHREY IS, IN FACT, ACTIVE. LET'S HOPE JOE AND COMPANY BOUNCE BACK IN A BIG WAY TODAY!!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Possibly the biggest reason, however, that the Ravens struggle so mightily to be anything beyond slightly above league average is the lack of a truly effective offensive system to elevate players. The Patriots, for example, were without Rob Gronkowski the last time they won a Super Bowl, but that did not stop them from mounting the most impressive comeback in Super Bowl history. It's not because Brady is more athletic or has a better arm than Joe Flacco, but he has been placed in a far more advanced system that he executes with surgical precision--a system where less-than-elite athletes such as Chris Hogan can find tremendous success. John Harbaugh brought with him no such system or philosophy. He, instead, brought with him his experience as a defensive backs and special teams coach. The Ravens typically have outstanding special teams play, and as important as that is, it's only one comparatively minor piece to the puzzle.
It's unfair to compare Harbaugh to Belichick, the greatest NFL coach of all time, but one can't help but wonder what things would be like if the Ravens were led by a man with a better set of schematic philosophies. Harbaugh insisted upon bringing back Marty Mornhinweg this season despite the fact that Steve Bisciotti's initial instinct was to replace the pass-happy offensive coordinator. Bisciotti's warning to Harbaugh was reportedly that if Marty didn't get the Ravens back to the playoffs in 2018, both Mornhinweg and Harbaugh would be fired together. I can certainly understand Harbaugh wanting continuity, especially since Joe Flacco also reportedly expressed his support of Mornhinweg, but the play-calling last week was incredibly tough to watch. It's understandable that an offensive line decimated by injuries would limit the Ravens' ability to move the football and put points on the board, but it's still difficult to see the rationale behind Mornhinweg's decisions and apparent thought process. He calls running plays where the Ravens almost never overload at the point of attack, and he still hasn't grasped the notion that this Ravens team must throw to open up the field for the run--it simply can't operate the other way around as it did in years past. Watching Alex Collins get buried in the backfield less than a second after taking the handoff was as depressing as it was infuriating.
Alex Collins hasn't suddenly become a bad running back. Both he and Buck Allen are effective when given the opportunity and running room. It's true that the Ravens don't have a bell cow elite running back the way they did with Ray Rice or Jamaal Lewis, but Collins shocked the NFL last season when he rushed for nearly 1000 yards and wasn't even the starter at the beginning of the season. Collins has even had success against the Pittsburgh during his time as a Raven, but it's difficult to imagine he'll find such success tomorrow when the Steelers come to town. Both the Ravens' starting offensive tackles will be out as neither has practiced all week. If I had to take a guess, Orlando Brown Jr. will start on the right side where he's nearly starting caliber already, and Alex Lewis will slide out to left tackle while another backup will take his place at left guard. I might be inclined to say that this setup could possibly work except that the Ravens center, despite being healthy, is probably the weakest link in the chain. I've said it before and I'll say it again: Matt Skura is too great of physical a drop-off from Ryan Jensen, and not adequately replacing last year's mauling starter will likely prove to be the biggest blunder by the Ravens player personnel department.
If the Ravens offense can't be particularly effective tomorrow, the burden will fall on a Ravens defense that looked atrocious for the past two weeks without Marlon Humphrey. Fortunately for Baltimore, it appears as though Marlon Humphrey will play tomorrow, and that will go a long way to limiting Antonio Brown. The Ravens will also miss Tim Williams, but they're so loaded with pass rushers including Matt Judon, Zadarius Smith, and Terrell Suggs that it's safe to assume Ben will feel some pressure off the edge tomorrow. Baltimore already showed it could handle the Steelers' weapons in Pittsburgh, and now they have another opportunity to do so in Baltimore. The problem is that the Ravens defense will wear down if the offense can't mount successful drives to keep the D off the field. It's also safe to say that the Steelers have gotten better since the last time these two teams faced one another.
I'd like to think that the return of the Ravens top corner along with homefield advantage and would be enough to tip things in favor of Baltimore, and I'd even like to think the Ravens will be ok without James Hurst at right tackle because Orlando Brown Jr. is such a talent. The absence of Ronnie Stanley, however, is more than the Ravens offensive line can withstand, especially because it will mean such a low level of talent at left guard as well. If Joe Flacco doesn't have time to throw and if the Ravens are even LESS effective opening up running lanes, it's difficult to see how they'll be able to see significant offensive success against a hard-nosed familiar foe.
In a league where a ton of teams have only 3 or 4 wins at this point, it's tough to count the Ravens out, but given the difficult schedule ahead of them, Sunday's game against Pittsburgh feels like a must-win contest. If you beat a team on the road, it seems only logical that you should be able to beat them at home. It is for this reason that I pray the Ravens rise to the occasion and handle their business before heading into the bye week to get healthy as the second half of the season looms. Missing key personnel doesn't always mean the Ravens will lose to the Steelers. Baltimore swept Pittsburgh in 2015 despite losing Joe Flacco, Steve Smith Sr. and Justin Forsett. Tomorrow's game will undoubtedly be similarly hard-fought, but something just scares me about how poorly the Ravens played against a Panthers team that is not nearly as good as they appeared last Sunday. The struggled to cover tight ends, and the Steelers have multiple athletic tight ends who can shred a defense if allowed to run free.
It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that Baltimore bounces back, but too many factors about this game make me uneasy. Without an offense that can sustain drives late in the game to burn up clock and keep the Steelers off the field, it's tough to see the Ravens stifling the Steelers' ability to mount a furious second half comeback. Hell, the Steelers may not even NEED to come back at all. One way or another, I can't in good conscience pick the Ravens to win this game, but let's hope they prove me wrong.
WEEK 9 NFL PICKS
BEARS AT BILLS- The Bears have only truly lost tough close games against quality teams thus far. The Bills are NOT a quality team. BEARS 31-17
CHIEFS AT BROWNS- Tough to see the Browns turning things around coming off the firing of their head coach and given the current state and track record of their team--also the this opponent. The Chiefs are scary. CHIEFS 42-20
JETS AT DOLPHINS- It's been a tough recent stretch for the Fins, but they already beat the Jets in New Jersey. It's tough to imagine them losing to an uneven Jets team in Miami. DOLPHINS 23-14
LIONS AT VIKINGS- Without Stefon Diggs, it's difficult to imagine the Lions falling to the Vikings even with the limited return of Dalvin Cook. Adam Thielen is certainly having an insane season with nearly 1000 receiving yards through only the first 9 games, but without Diggs on the field, the Lions will be able to keep Thielen doubled most of the day. LIONS 24-21
FALCONS AT REDSKINS- It's amazing just how far the Falcons have fallen less than two years since their appearance in a Super Bowl. Matt Ryan and company have lost both of their road games thus far this season, and the Redskins are 3-1 at home. This will be a good day for Washingtonians. REDSKINS 34-27
BUCCANEERS AT PANTHERS- The Buccaneers are an absolutely tire fire and the Panthers are gaining momentum, especially at home. PANTHERS 30-16
STEELERS AT RAVENS- John Harbaugh being on the hot seat won't mean much in a game where the Ravens are extremely short-handed on the offensive line--particularly on Flacco's blindside. If Flacco isn't comfortable in the pocket, he isn't accurate and this team doesn't run the ball well enough to take pressure off of him as it did in years past. The Ravens defense will fight mightily, but they can only stay on the field for so long. I'd like to think this will be hard-fought, but something tells me the Steelers will pull away late. I REEEEALLY hope I'm way off on this one. STEELERS 27-17
TEXANS AT BRONCOS- The Broncos teed off on the worst team in the NFL two weeks ago, but they've done nothing but lose otherwise for the past couple of months. The Texans, meanwhile, have been hitting their stride since they tailored their offense to their quarterback's skill set, and now they've added Demaryius Thomas just in time to take on his old team. TEXANS 35-20
CHARGERS AT SEAHAWKS- It's tough to know what to think about the Chargers. They're 5-2, but they've won a lot of close games over some rather questionable teams with the exception of their blowout of the Browns. The Seahawks are a shell of their former self, but they've won 4 of their last 5 games in pretty convincing fashion, and the only game they lost during that stretch was a 2 point loss to the unbeaten Rams. This could truly go either way, but it's still a bad idea to bet against the Seahawks at home, especially with their current level of momentum. SEAHAWKS 23-20
RAMS AT SAINTS- This is probably the best game of the week as it pits two of the league's top teams against one another in one of the toughest road venues. The Rams keep winning, but they do so by the skin of their teeth and often to teams with iffy records. Drew Brees has more to work with than Aaron Rodgers right now, and I have a feeling his game won't be fumbled away. SAINTS 36-33
PACKERS AT PATRIOTS- If the Rams and Saints game is the best game of the week, the Packers and Patriots might be the most heavily anticipated quarterback duel of the week. Aaron Rodgers has led his team to only 3 wins, but everyone can see they're much better than their record would suggest at this point. With that said, the Patriots are an electric 6-2 with big time recent wins over the powerhouse Chiefs and a strong Bears team. Rodgers typically has some magic in him, but he's going where almost no teams come out victorious (except sometimes the Ravens). PATRIOTS 38-27
TITANS AT COWBOYS- Neither of these teams is a legitimate contender, but the Titans are atrocious on the road. COWBOYS 24-13
I'M NOT HOLDING MY BREATH ON THE RAVENS' CHANCES TODAY, BUT THIS IS A FAMILIAR FOE THAT THEY'VE ALREADY BEATEN ON THE ROAD, AND MARLON HUMPHREY IS, IN FACT, ACTIVE. LET'S HOPE JOE AND COMPANY BOUNCE BACK IN A BIG WAY TODAY!!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, October 28, 2018
WEEK 8 NFL PREDICTIONS
Watching Justin Tucker's missed extra point last week felt painfully similar to watching Billy Cundiff crush the dreams of nearly everyone in the greater Baltimore area in late 2011. We Ravens fans have, since 2012 at least, taken for granted that nearly everything Justin Tucker lines up for will be successful, and when the game was on the line last week, he failed. Tucker, however, was not nearly entirely to blame for the loss. That was not a superior New Orleans Saints team--though they are certainly talented.
So if not Tucker, who was the blame for last week's loss? Two major factors came into play in deciding that game, the first of which was the situation at the cornerback position. Not only was the team's top corner Marlon Humphrey out with a thigh injury, but Jimmy Smith also proved nowhere near ready to cover a #1 receiver the way he has for most of his career when healthy. Maybe the dominant win over the Titans covered up much of Smith's inadequacy, but he was brutally exposed by Mike Thomas when the Saints came marching into Baltimore, and a critical scoring drive was kept alive literally because Mike Thomas wasn't covered on two major 3rd and 4th down plays. In predicting a Ravens win, I erroneously thought Jimmy would be able to step in and mostly take Mike Thomas away the way he has in the past with Antonio Brown and a host of other receivers, but no such luck.
The defensive issues weren't entirely to blame for the loss. One rather unexpected announcement shortly before the game was that both Alex Lewis and James Hurst would be out leaving a backup at left guard and Orlando Brown at right tackle. I actually would prefer to put Brown out at right tackle permanently and bring Hurst back in at left guard where he opened up running lanes quite nicely last year, but the Ravens offensive line coach Joe D'Allesandris apparently does not agree. With that said, Hurst wasn't available either, and the Ravens ability to run the football, especially on first and second down continues to suffer. After Alex Collins or Buck Allen find daylight and breaks open for a decent run, I hear many fans clamor for the Ravens to run the football more, but they always conveniently fail to acknowledge what keeps happening when the Ravens DO try to impose their will on the ground. Time after time Collins takes a handoff and is buried behind the line of scrimmage as he waits for some kind of hole to open up. It's not until the Ravens spread a defense out and force linebackers to drop into pass coverage that Collins and Allen are able to break off any serious runs. The old hard-nosed Ravens run-first and then pass off of play action that we saw for much of the first half of Joe Flacco's career simply won't work with the current offensive line the way it's set up--especially not when they're short-handed as they were last week.
Unfortunately for the Ravens, they're once again going to be without key personnel when they take on a Panthers team that has yet to lose a game at home this season. Marlon Humphrey will once again be out as will James Hurst and Alex Lewis. To make matters worse, Alex Lewis' backup Bradley Bozeman was a limited participant on Friday as he has continued to deal with a calf issue that sidelined him numerous times against the Saints. With that said, the biggest obstacle to the Ravens stopping the Panthers would have been covering a speedy receiver, and Torrey Smith along with a handful of other players has been ruled out for this game. Devin Funchess is the Panthers' leading receiver, but he possesses no type of speed to beat and of the Ravens healthy corners for big plays. Christian McCaffrey is a talented running back, but he hasn't found the endzone once this season and it's difficult to imagine him doing so against this Ravens defense.
The Panthers aren't, however, to be taken lightly. Cam Newton is a big, athletic threat to extend plays with his legs and gain tough yards on the ground. Newton also has a big arm and has 11 passing touchdowns on the season thus far. The Panthers were able to beat the Bengals at home, and that's no easy feat. With that said, the Panthers have also allowed the likes of the Giants to put up 31 points on them in North Carolina, and the Ravens have an unquestionably better offense than the Giants regardless of the G-men possessing two top-tier weapons. The Ravens shouldn't struggle to complete successful scoring drives with consistency today, nor should they struggle to cover Panthers receivers. It is for these reasons that I have a hard time seeing Baltimore losing despite the absence of their top corner and two starting offensive linemen.
WEEK 8 NFL PICKS
BECAUSE OF THE LATE TIMING OF THIS POST, I WILL SIMPLY POST THE PREDICTED SCORES AND WINNERS OF EACH GAME.
EAGLES AT JAGUARS- EAGLES 24-14
JETS AT BEARS- BEARS 31-23
BUCCANEERS AT BENGALS- BENGALS 28-14
SEAHAWKS AT LIONS- LIONS 21-17
BRONCOS AT CHIEFS- CHIEFS 42-21
REDSKINS AT GIANTS- REDSKINS 34-20
BROWNS AT STEELERS- STEELERS 27-16
RAVENS AT PANTHERS- RAVENS 27-17
COLTS AT RAIDERS- COLTS 30-27
PACKERS AT RAMS- RAMS 33-24
49ERS AT CARDINALS- CARDINALS 27-14
SAINTS AT VIKINGS- SAINTS 35-27
PATRIOTS AT BILLS- PATRIOTS 49-3
THIS IS A WEEK FOR REDEMPTION, RAVENS FANS. THE RAVENS MUST BE ABLE TO PUT AWAY A TEAM AS FLAWED AS THE PANTHERS OR ELSE THEY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TREMENDOUSLY AGAINST MUCH TOUGHER COMPETITION GOING FORWARD.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
So if not Tucker, who was the blame for last week's loss? Two major factors came into play in deciding that game, the first of which was the situation at the cornerback position. Not only was the team's top corner Marlon Humphrey out with a thigh injury, but Jimmy Smith also proved nowhere near ready to cover a #1 receiver the way he has for most of his career when healthy. Maybe the dominant win over the Titans covered up much of Smith's inadequacy, but he was brutally exposed by Mike Thomas when the Saints came marching into Baltimore, and a critical scoring drive was kept alive literally because Mike Thomas wasn't covered on two major 3rd and 4th down plays. In predicting a Ravens win, I erroneously thought Jimmy would be able to step in and mostly take Mike Thomas away the way he has in the past with Antonio Brown and a host of other receivers, but no such luck.
The defensive issues weren't entirely to blame for the loss. One rather unexpected announcement shortly before the game was that both Alex Lewis and James Hurst would be out leaving a backup at left guard and Orlando Brown at right tackle. I actually would prefer to put Brown out at right tackle permanently and bring Hurst back in at left guard where he opened up running lanes quite nicely last year, but the Ravens offensive line coach Joe D'Allesandris apparently does not agree. With that said, Hurst wasn't available either, and the Ravens ability to run the football, especially on first and second down continues to suffer. After Alex Collins or Buck Allen find daylight and breaks open for a decent run, I hear many fans clamor for the Ravens to run the football more, but they always conveniently fail to acknowledge what keeps happening when the Ravens DO try to impose their will on the ground. Time after time Collins takes a handoff and is buried behind the line of scrimmage as he waits for some kind of hole to open up. It's not until the Ravens spread a defense out and force linebackers to drop into pass coverage that Collins and Allen are able to break off any serious runs. The old hard-nosed Ravens run-first and then pass off of play action that we saw for much of the first half of Joe Flacco's career simply won't work with the current offensive line the way it's set up--especially not when they're short-handed as they were last week.
Unfortunately for the Ravens, they're once again going to be without key personnel when they take on a Panthers team that has yet to lose a game at home this season. Marlon Humphrey will once again be out as will James Hurst and Alex Lewis. To make matters worse, Alex Lewis' backup Bradley Bozeman was a limited participant on Friday as he has continued to deal with a calf issue that sidelined him numerous times against the Saints. With that said, the biggest obstacle to the Ravens stopping the Panthers would have been covering a speedy receiver, and Torrey Smith along with a handful of other players has been ruled out for this game. Devin Funchess is the Panthers' leading receiver, but he possesses no type of speed to beat and of the Ravens healthy corners for big plays. Christian McCaffrey is a talented running back, but he hasn't found the endzone once this season and it's difficult to imagine him doing so against this Ravens defense.
The Panthers aren't, however, to be taken lightly. Cam Newton is a big, athletic threat to extend plays with his legs and gain tough yards on the ground. Newton also has a big arm and has 11 passing touchdowns on the season thus far. The Panthers were able to beat the Bengals at home, and that's no easy feat. With that said, the Panthers have also allowed the likes of the Giants to put up 31 points on them in North Carolina, and the Ravens have an unquestionably better offense than the Giants regardless of the G-men possessing two top-tier weapons. The Ravens shouldn't struggle to complete successful scoring drives with consistency today, nor should they struggle to cover Panthers receivers. It is for these reasons that I have a hard time seeing Baltimore losing despite the absence of their top corner and two starting offensive linemen.
WEEK 8 NFL PICKS
BECAUSE OF THE LATE TIMING OF THIS POST, I WILL SIMPLY POST THE PREDICTED SCORES AND WINNERS OF EACH GAME.
EAGLES AT JAGUARS- EAGLES 24-14
JETS AT BEARS- BEARS 31-23
BUCCANEERS AT BENGALS- BENGALS 28-14
SEAHAWKS AT LIONS- LIONS 21-17
BRONCOS AT CHIEFS- CHIEFS 42-21
REDSKINS AT GIANTS- REDSKINS 34-20
BROWNS AT STEELERS- STEELERS 27-16
RAVENS AT PANTHERS- RAVENS 27-17
COLTS AT RAIDERS- COLTS 30-27
PACKERS AT RAMS- RAMS 33-24
49ERS AT CARDINALS- CARDINALS 27-14
SAINTS AT VIKINGS- SAINTS 35-27
PATRIOTS AT BILLS- PATRIOTS 49-3
THIS IS A WEEK FOR REDEMPTION, RAVENS FANS. THE RAVENS MUST BE ABLE TO PUT AWAY A TEAM AS FLAWED AS THE PANTHERS OR ELSE THEY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TREMENDOUSLY AGAINST MUCH TOUGHER COMPETITION GOING FORWARD.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Saturday, October 20, 2018
SAINTS-RAVENS ANALYSIS AND WEEK 7 NFL PREDICTIONS
The Baltimore Ravens have, for nearly the last 6 years, struggled to establish any sort of lasting identity. When Ray Lewis retired and Ed Reed departed in free agency, the team was left with a void in leadership and glaring positional holes that the player personnel department struggled mightily to fill. The last two seasons have ended in heartbreaking fashion with last minute 4th quarter leads vanishing in unlikely plays within the final game or two of the season. Never mind that the Ravens technically finished with a winning 9-7 record last year; it's all for naught if such a record falls short of yielding a playoff berth.
This season has already seen two divisional losses to familiar foes, but somehow the overall feeling surrounding the team has been far more optimistic--and deservedly so. Not only does Baltimore own the top defense in regards to both scoring and yards allowed per game, but the Ravens have also found themselves ranked 10th in total offense and second in the league behind only the undefeated Rams in point differential thus far. Issues such as a lack of healthy quality corners and sure-handed receivers adept at gaining separation from defenders seem like a distant memory as we enter Week 7. Joe Flacco has mostly been surprisingly confident despite not being able to lean on a strong running game as he had during the initial and wildly successful first phase of his career.
The lack of a consistent running game can likely be attributed to weakness at the center position with Matt Skura stepping in to replace a ferociously strong Ryan Jensen who departed in the off-season. Skura performs admirably in pass protection, but his ability to open up rushing lanes is non-existent. Alex Lewis is also one who is quite athletic in pass protection, but not nearly physical enough to help spring Alex Collins for solid runs. It's possible that there could yet be shuffling along the offensive line to get Hurst back to left guard where he excelled last season and put Orlando Brown at right tackle, but it's unclear how the Ravens feel about experimenting with that setup at this point in season.
Despite playing at home against a dome team, the Ravens shouldn't expect some miraculous explosion of rushing tomorrow considering the Saints boast the league's top run defense with only 3.1 yards per carry allowed thus far. That in no way means the run should be abandoned entirely, but instead of running to set up the pass, the Ravens should take advantage of a 17th ranked New Orleans pass defense and pass to set up the run. The Saints haven't exactly been a defensive power this season. The least amount of points they've allowed a team to score has been 18, and both teams the Saints held to 18 points, the Giants and Browns, possess a combined 3 wins. Far more troubling for New Orleans fans should be the fact that the Saints allowed the Buccaneers to put up 48 points to kick off the season and the Falcons to amass 37 points in their matchup in Atlanta just over one month ago--the Bucs and Falcons combine for 4 wins on the season.
The Saints have a single win over a team with a winning record, and while wins are always tough to come by in the NFL, no one should be crowning them Super Bowl champs just yet. The Ravens, meanwhile, have allowed only a single poor defensive performance on the season in their road defeat to the Bengals. Baltimore held every other opponent they've faced to 14 points or less. Drew Brees is a better quarterback than Ben Roethlisberger, but the disparity isn't that pronounced that the Ravens suffocating defensive performance in Pittsburgh should be taken lightly. Suggs, Weddle, and company should also be given major credit for stifling a remarkably mobile Marcus Mariota last week even if the Titans aren't loaded with offensive weapons.
The Saints certainly have more offensive clout than the Titans, but as I review the Saints stats I'm not struck by a great number of weapons. Alvin Kamara is a fantastic all-purpose back with 299 yards on the ground and 351 yards through the air, and Michael Thomas has already tallied 519 receiving yards, but beyond those two, the Saints' talent level drops off sharply. Mark Ingram is only averaging 3.3 yards per carry, and not a single other Saints receiver has totaled 200 yards yet. The Ravens, by contrast, have 3 wide receivers with well over 300 receiving yards on the season, and a trio of tight ends who have combined to over 400 more yards.
The Ravens might not have a receiver quite on the level of Michael Thomas, but they can spread the field with more quality receiving weapons than can New Orleans. To make matters worse for the Saints, the Ravens can stick Jimmy Smith on Mike Thomas and commit significant personnel to stopping Alvin Kamara. Marshon Lattimore will likely be employed to try and limit Smokey Brown, but Willie Snead and Michael Crabtree should still be able to do quite a bit of damage on a less-than-suffocating Saints pass defense.
One cause for concern for Baltimore is an injury to the Ravens top young cornerback Marlon Humphrey. Humphrey came out of Friday's practice with what was reported as a "thigh" injury. In all likelihood, the young shutdown corner tweaked his hamstring, but it's entirely possible he took a knee to the quadriceps or something of that nature. Whether or not Humphrey can play on Sunday is a major factor in just how strong the Ravens secondary will be, but cornerback depth with Jimmy Smith back is strong enough that Humphrey's absence shouldn't tip the scales in favor of the Saints.
The Saints are coming off of a bye week, but they're a dome team that never seems to perform well on outdoor grass fields--and they've never beaten the Ravens in the history of their franchise. This may be a stronger, more complete Ravens team any of the others that have faced New Orleans, and it's difficult to imagine them taking a loss in their return home. The Ravens are absolutely saturated with pass rushers, and even a relatively mobile quarterback such as Drew Brees will have trouble evading the likes of Zadarius Smith, Terrell Suggs, Matt Judon, and Tim Williams. The direction of new Ravens defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has meant the most aggressive, fast-flowing Ravens defense since 2011 under Chuck Pagano, and this year's unit already possesses an even higher ranking. If this game were being played in New Orleans, I might pick a different outcome, but it's hard to see Baltimore dropping this one in front of 70,000 people in purple.
WEEK 7 PICKS
TITANS AT CHARGERS- The Titans already look incredibly uneven this season, but now they have to travel across the country to face a Chargers team coming off of 3 straight impressive wins. Good luck Tennessee. CHARGERS 33-17
PATRIOTS AT BEARS- I would ordinarily pick the Patriots in this matchup, but New England will be without nearly all of their tight ends including Gronk, and New England is 0-2 on the road thus far this season. The Bears, meanwhile, are not unstoppable, but they've won two rather convincing games at home for a 2-0 home record thus far. New England will bounce back as the Patriots return to health, but I wouldn't want to go short-handed on the road to face a Bears defense that ranks 3rd in the league in yards allowed and 4th in points allowed per game. BEARS 24-21
BILLS AT COLTS- Derek Anderson starting QB for the Bills? This may be the worst game of the season. COLTS 27-14
LIONS AT DOLPHINS- The Lions aren't nearly as bad as they looked in abysmal Week 1 loss to the Jets, but the Dolphins are healthy and quite strong at home this season. DOLPHINS 28-23
VIKINGS AT JETS- It's difficult to know which Vikings team will show up from week to week. Will we see the team got blasted by one of the worst teams in football (the Bills)? Or will we see the team that only two weeks later went on the road to beat the Super Bowl Champion Eagles. The Jets have also had quite an up-and-down season to this point, and they'll only have 48 healthy players when they take the field this Sunday. Gang Green released Terrell Pryor and Enunwa is out for the week, so expect New York to be lacking in serious weapons. VIKINGS 31-20
PANTHERS AT EAGLES- Despite the Panthers 0-2 road record, they're almost completely healthy going into a game against an Eagles team with an alarming number of injured players set to be out on Sunday. Torrey Smith wasn't spectacular for the Eagles, but he served his purpose as a field-stretcher, and when Philly replaced him with Mike Wallace, they had no way of knowing Wallace would break his leg so early on. Teams don't typically do well the year after a Super Bowl victory, and the Eagles are no exception. PATHERS 23-17
BROWNS AT BUCCANEERS- I said before the beginning of the regular season that I believed the Browns could win 6-8 games and they've already won 2 and tied 1. They were blasted by the Chargers, but they'll bounce back against a Bucs team that hasn't won since Week 2. BROWNS 30-27
TEXANS AT JAGUARS- Neither the Texans' current 3-game winning streak nor the Jaguars' early season win over a Patriots team that often begins the season dropping 2-3 games should figure much into the outcome of Sunday's matchup in Jacksonville. The Jaguars have dropped 3 of their last 4 games, but they'll receive an offensive boost from their recently acquired back, Carlos Hyde. The Texans have only narrowly beaten some of the worst teams in the league during their current winning streak, and it's difficult to see them edging a Jaguars team that has a corner who can severely limit DeAndre Hopkins who I maintain is the most athletically gifted receiver in the league. Beyond Hopkins, the Texans don't care me. JAGUARS 31-21
SAINTS AT RAVENS- The Saints don't have a diverse enough array of weapons to challenge a Ravens defense that can cover and get after the quarterback as well as they have this season. Baltimore, on the other hand, has more than enough weapons to put points on the board against a Saints defense that ranks in the bottom half in the league in pass defense. Welcome home, birds. RAVENS 27-20
RAMS AT 49ERS- I...don't need to dignify this with serious analysis do I? The 49ers are 1-5. The Rams are undefeated though not incredibly dominant on the road. Nevertheless, the Rams will win this game. RAMS 26-13
COWBOYS AT REDSKINS- I hate predicting this matchup, but the Cowboys have lost all of their road games this season, and the Redskins are 2-1 at home. It is for that reason, and that reason alone that I'm giving Washington an edge here, but the Boys could easily make me look stupid. It's just that the Cowboys have averaged a head-scratching 12.33 points per game on the road while scoring an average 28.667 points per game in Arlington. REDSKINS 21-17
BENGALS AT CHIEFS- The Bengals are 2-1 on the road, but their 2 road wins were narrow and against teams with FAR less offensive firepower than the Chiefs. This is a strong Bengals team this season, but they'll drop to 2-2 on the road this weekend. CHIEFS 34-27
GIANTS AT FALCONS- Both of these teams suck, but the Falcons can at least do enough offensively to outscore a Giants team that has been frustrating to their fans and players alike. FALCONS 33-20
I MUST APOLOGIZE TO MY READERS FOR SUCH A LATE START TO THIS SEASON'S POSTING, BUT GET READY FOR A FANTASTIC SECOND HALF OF THE 2018 SEASON WHERE WE'LL SEE EXACTLY WHAT THIS RAVENS TEAM IS MADE OF!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
This season has already seen two divisional losses to familiar foes, but somehow the overall feeling surrounding the team has been far more optimistic--and deservedly so. Not only does Baltimore own the top defense in regards to both scoring and yards allowed per game, but the Ravens have also found themselves ranked 10th in total offense and second in the league behind only the undefeated Rams in point differential thus far. Issues such as a lack of healthy quality corners and sure-handed receivers adept at gaining separation from defenders seem like a distant memory as we enter Week 7. Joe Flacco has mostly been surprisingly confident despite not being able to lean on a strong running game as he had during the initial and wildly successful first phase of his career.
The lack of a consistent running game can likely be attributed to weakness at the center position with Matt Skura stepping in to replace a ferociously strong Ryan Jensen who departed in the off-season. Skura performs admirably in pass protection, but his ability to open up rushing lanes is non-existent. Alex Lewis is also one who is quite athletic in pass protection, but not nearly physical enough to help spring Alex Collins for solid runs. It's possible that there could yet be shuffling along the offensive line to get Hurst back to left guard where he excelled last season and put Orlando Brown at right tackle, but it's unclear how the Ravens feel about experimenting with that setup at this point in season.
Despite playing at home against a dome team, the Ravens shouldn't expect some miraculous explosion of rushing tomorrow considering the Saints boast the league's top run defense with only 3.1 yards per carry allowed thus far. That in no way means the run should be abandoned entirely, but instead of running to set up the pass, the Ravens should take advantage of a 17th ranked New Orleans pass defense and pass to set up the run. The Saints haven't exactly been a defensive power this season. The least amount of points they've allowed a team to score has been 18, and both teams the Saints held to 18 points, the Giants and Browns, possess a combined 3 wins. Far more troubling for New Orleans fans should be the fact that the Saints allowed the Buccaneers to put up 48 points to kick off the season and the Falcons to amass 37 points in their matchup in Atlanta just over one month ago--the Bucs and Falcons combine for 4 wins on the season.
The Saints have a single win over a team with a winning record, and while wins are always tough to come by in the NFL, no one should be crowning them Super Bowl champs just yet. The Ravens, meanwhile, have allowed only a single poor defensive performance on the season in their road defeat to the Bengals. Baltimore held every other opponent they've faced to 14 points or less. Drew Brees is a better quarterback than Ben Roethlisberger, but the disparity isn't that pronounced that the Ravens suffocating defensive performance in Pittsburgh should be taken lightly. Suggs, Weddle, and company should also be given major credit for stifling a remarkably mobile Marcus Mariota last week even if the Titans aren't loaded with offensive weapons.
The Saints certainly have more offensive clout than the Titans, but as I review the Saints stats I'm not struck by a great number of weapons. Alvin Kamara is a fantastic all-purpose back with 299 yards on the ground and 351 yards through the air, and Michael Thomas has already tallied 519 receiving yards, but beyond those two, the Saints' talent level drops off sharply. Mark Ingram is only averaging 3.3 yards per carry, and not a single other Saints receiver has totaled 200 yards yet. The Ravens, by contrast, have 3 wide receivers with well over 300 receiving yards on the season, and a trio of tight ends who have combined to over 400 more yards.
The Ravens might not have a receiver quite on the level of Michael Thomas, but they can spread the field with more quality receiving weapons than can New Orleans. To make matters worse for the Saints, the Ravens can stick Jimmy Smith on Mike Thomas and commit significant personnel to stopping Alvin Kamara. Marshon Lattimore will likely be employed to try and limit Smokey Brown, but Willie Snead and Michael Crabtree should still be able to do quite a bit of damage on a less-than-suffocating Saints pass defense.
One cause for concern for Baltimore is an injury to the Ravens top young cornerback Marlon Humphrey. Humphrey came out of Friday's practice with what was reported as a "thigh" injury. In all likelihood, the young shutdown corner tweaked his hamstring, but it's entirely possible he took a knee to the quadriceps or something of that nature. Whether or not Humphrey can play on Sunday is a major factor in just how strong the Ravens secondary will be, but cornerback depth with Jimmy Smith back is strong enough that Humphrey's absence shouldn't tip the scales in favor of the Saints.
The Saints are coming off of a bye week, but they're a dome team that never seems to perform well on outdoor grass fields--and they've never beaten the Ravens in the history of their franchise. This may be a stronger, more complete Ravens team any of the others that have faced New Orleans, and it's difficult to imagine them taking a loss in their return home. The Ravens are absolutely saturated with pass rushers, and even a relatively mobile quarterback such as Drew Brees will have trouble evading the likes of Zadarius Smith, Terrell Suggs, Matt Judon, and Tim Williams. The direction of new Ravens defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has meant the most aggressive, fast-flowing Ravens defense since 2011 under Chuck Pagano, and this year's unit already possesses an even higher ranking. If this game were being played in New Orleans, I might pick a different outcome, but it's hard to see Baltimore dropping this one in front of 70,000 people in purple.
WEEK 7 PICKS
TITANS AT CHARGERS- The Titans already look incredibly uneven this season, but now they have to travel across the country to face a Chargers team coming off of 3 straight impressive wins. Good luck Tennessee. CHARGERS 33-17
PATRIOTS AT BEARS- I would ordinarily pick the Patriots in this matchup, but New England will be without nearly all of their tight ends including Gronk, and New England is 0-2 on the road thus far this season. The Bears, meanwhile, are not unstoppable, but they've won two rather convincing games at home for a 2-0 home record thus far. New England will bounce back as the Patriots return to health, but I wouldn't want to go short-handed on the road to face a Bears defense that ranks 3rd in the league in yards allowed and 4th in points allowed per game. BEARS 24-21
BILLS AT COLTS- Derek Anderson starting QB for the Bills? This may be the worst game of the season. COLTS 27-14
LIONS AT DOLPHINS- The Lions aren't nearly as bad as they looked in abysmal Week 1 loss to the Jets, but the Dolphins are healthy and quite strong at home this season. DOLPHINS 28-23
VIKINGS AT JETS- It's difficult to know which Vikings team will show up from week to week. Will we see the team got blasted by one of the worst teams in football (the Bills)? Or will we see the team that only two weeks later went on the road to beat the Super Bowl Champion Eagles. The Jets have also had quite an up-and-down season to this point, and they'll only have 48 healthy players when they take the field this Sunday. Gang Green released Terrell Pryor and Enunwa is out for the week, so expect New York to be lacking in serious weapons. VIKINGS 31-20
PANTHERS AT EAGLES- Despite the Panthers 0-2 road record, they're almost completely healthy going into a game against an Eagles team with an alarming number of injured players set to be out on Sunday. Torrey Smith wasn't spectacular for the Eagles, but he served his purpose as a field-stretcher, and when Philly replaced him with Mike Wallace, they had no way of knowing Wallace would break his leg so early on. Teams don't typically do well the year after a Super Bowl victory, and the Eagles are no exception. PATHERS 23-17
BROWNS AT BUCCANEERS- I said before the beginning of the regular season that I believed the Browns could win 6-8 games and they've already won 2 and tied 1. They were blasted by the Chargers, but they'll bounce back against a Bucs team that hasn't won since Week 2. BROWNS 30-27
TEXANS AT JAGUARS- Neither the Texans' current 3-game winning streak nor the Jaguars' early season win over a Patriots team that often begins the season dropping 2-3 games should figure much into the outcome of Sunday's matchup in Jacksonville. The Jaguars have dropped 3 of their last 4 games, but they'll receive an offensive boost from their recently acquired back, Carlos Hyde. The Texans have only narrowly beaten some of the worst teams in the league during their current winning streak, and it's difficult to see them edging a Jaguars team that has a corner who can severely limit DeAndre Hopkins who I maintain is the most athletically gifted receiver in the league. Beyond Hopkins, the Texans don't care me. JAGUARS 31-21
SAINTS AT RAVENS- The Saints don't have a diverse enough array of weapons to challenge a Ravens defense that can cover and get after the quarterback as well as they have this season. Baltimore, on the other hand, has more than enough weapons to put points on the board against a Saints defense that ranks in the bottom half in the league in pass defense. Welcome home, birds. RAVENS 27-20
RAMS AT 49ERS- I...don't need to dignify this with serious analysis do I? The 49ers are 1-5. The Rams are undefeated though not incredibly dominant on the road. Nevertheless, the Rams will win this game. RAMS 26-13
COWBOYS AT REDSKINS- I hate predicting this matchup, but the Cowboys have lost all of their road games this season, and the Redskins are 2-1 at home. It is for that reason, and that reason alone that I'm giving Washington an edge here, but the Boys could easily make me look stupid. It's just that the Cowboys have averaged a head-scratching 12.33 points per game on the road while scoring an average 28.667 points per game in Arlington. REDSKINS 21-17
BENGALS AT CHIEFS- The Bengals are 2-1 on the road, but their 2 road wins were narrow and against teams with FAR less offensive firepower than the Chiefs. This is a strong Bengals team this season, but they'll drop to 2-2 on the road this weekend. CHIEFS 34-27
GIANTS AT FALCONS- Both of these teams suck, but the Falcons can at least do enough offensively to outscore a Giants team that has been frustrating to their fans and players alike. FALCONS 33-20
I MUST APOLOGIZE TO MY READERS FOR SUCH A LATE START TO THIS SEASON'S POSTING, BUT GET READY FOR A FANTASTIC SECOND HALF OF THE 2018 SEASON WHERE WE'LL SEE EXACTLY WHAT THIS RAVENS TEAM IS MADE OF!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, February 4, 2018
SUPER BOWL 52 ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
It seems downright unfair just how long the Patriots have been able to remain dominant. Whether they win or lose Super Bowl 52, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will have made more Super Bowl appearances and won more Lombardi trophies than all but a handful of franchises. What might seem even more frustrating to fans of other teams is the fact that the Brady-Belichick duo appears to have at least one more season left in the tank following Sunday's rematch of the 2004 Super Bowl.
The Eagles are an entirely different team than the one that last took the field on a Super Bowl Sunday. Donovan McNabb has long since retired, and Andy Reid has found his way to Kansas City to turn the Chiefs into a playoff team. Nearly all the players currently in the league were teenagers or children when the Patriots and Eagles last squared off for a title, and yet here's Tom Brady dominating against an entirely new generation of athletes.
As historically dominant as the Patriots have been, they're not invincible--it just often seems that way. Like any other team in the league, the Patriots have won games this season by razor thin margins and have even been beaten on occasion. The Patriots even tend to struggle at the beginning of the regular season as they rotate through players (except Tom Brady) with a fairly high degree of frequency, and it takes them time to get new pieces to fit into a tried and true system.
Not only do the Eagles have a different quarterback than they had in 2004, but they have a different quarterback than they had through the first 14 weeks of this season. It's highly likely that the Eagles wouldn't have had nearly the same record with Nick Foles as their starting quarterback for the entirety of the 2017 regular season, but Foles has, nevertheless, proven himself worth of the playoffs by doing just enough to beat the Falcons, and putting on a clinic against a Vikings defense that spent nearly all of this season suffocating opposing offenses. Foles may not be Carson Wentz, but maybe he doesn't have to be Wentz to get the job done. After all, Tom Brady was a backup once too...
I haven't run into many people who have expressed the belief that either one of these teams will win in a blowout. Both the Patriots and Eagles produced defenses that allowed some of the fewest points in the league this season, and the last two Super Bowls the Patriots won were impossibly close. Who could forget last season when the Patriots won despite literally never leading during regulation, and equally unforgettable was New England's goal line stand against the Seahawks two years earlier to shock everyone who assumed Marshawn Lynch would simply rumble for one triumphant yard to secure Seattle's second Super Bowl win in a row. As dominant as the Patriots have been, they don't tend to dominate their opponents in the big game, and that's what will hopefully make 52 nearly, if not equally, exciting!
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
Both the Eagles and Patriots faced elite defenses in their respective conference championship games two weeks ago. The Patriots found a way to score on the vaunted Jaguars defense after going down 14-0 early on, Tom Brady hit Danny Amendola for the go-ahead score with only a few minutes left in the forth quarter. The Eagles, meanwhile, absolutely embarrassed a Vikings defense that wasn't used to being embarrassed. One might conclude that the Eagles have a greater degree of momentum coming into this game given the way they trounced their last opponent. After all, the Steelers put up a whopping 42 points on that same Jaguars defense only one week earlier. One thing to remember, however, is that the Patriots found a way to move the football on that Jaguars defense without significant use of Rob Gronkowski as he was taken out of the game with a brutal helmet to helmet hit early on.
Rob Gronkowski accounted for 23.6 percent of Tom Brady's passing yards this season and 25% of Brady's passing touchdowns. Gronk is also an excellent blocker, and even when he's not receiving the football, he's consistently commands double teams, thus, helping to open things up for New England's other offensive weapons. The last time the Patriots played without Gronk before the playoffs, they lost to the Miami Dolphins 27-20. Suffice it to say that the fact that the Patriots were able to find a way to move the football through the air against the team with the league's most dominant corner tandem means they'll be that much better when Brady's biggest target returns.
The Philadelphia Eagles were able to stifle and stonewall some pretty elite weapons when they beat the Falcons three weeks ago. With only the 17th ranked pass defense over the course of the regular season, I didn't believe the Eagles would be able to cover the likes of Mohammed Sanu and the great Julio Jones. Lo and behold, the Eagles defensive line was able to consistently pressure Matt Ryan enough to throw him off his game, and Philly even stopped the Falcons from scoring from inside the 2 yard line to seal the win. What shouldn't have been ignored was the Eagles' 13.375 points allowed per game at home during the regular season. The Eagles, however, won't be playing at home this weekend.
Philadelphia's defense performed quite differently on the road in 2017. They allowed an average of 23.5 points per away game, and allowed some extremely weak teams to play them closely as a result. The Patriots allowed a surprisingly high 21.875 points per game in Foxborough during the 2017 regular season, but they allowed a far more impressive 16.125 points per game on the road. Seldom do we see defenses perform better on the road than at home, but somehow that's exactly what happened for New England this season. That isn't to say New England's defense performs badly at home as it just held the Titans to 14 points in a divisional round rout and held the Jaguars to 20 points only a week after the Jags rumbled through Pittsburgh for 45 points largely on the legs of Leonard Fournette. What's equally astonishing is the fact that the Patriots road offense was nearly as good as their offense was at home. On the road, the Patriots scored and average 27.875 points per game, and at home they averaged 29.375 points per game. That means that the Patriots' average margin of victory on the road was 11.75 points, and that's over 4 points higher than their 7.5 point average margin of victory at home.
New England's only road defeat this season was the aforementioned loss to the Dolphins without Gronk who was, at the time, serving a suspension for a dirty hit on a Bills player the week before. A team that can go 7-1 on the road, more specifically 7-0 with their current available personnel, should be incredibly dangerous in a game held on a neutral field. As highly touted as the Vikings defense was this season, it allowed a significantly greater number of points per game on the road than that of the Patriots, and it was for that reason that I predicted an Eagles win in the NFC Championship. A defense that travels well is a defense built for the post-season.
To correctly assess the Eagles' chances of slowing down Brady and company, we'll have to examine how the Eagles fared outside of Philly against pass-heavy teams. The Patriots did finish 10th in rushing yards this season, but it's safe to say that they'll respect the run-stuffing ability of the Eagles' league-leading run defense, and choose to instead attack Philly's secondary. Philadelphia ranked a modest 17th in the league in pass defense this season, and because of this, they allowed teams such top 10 passing teams as the Chargers and Rams to put up significant offensive yards in road games. The Chargers were 0-4 when Philip Rivers threw for 347 yards and two touchdowns in a narrow 26-24 loss in San Diego to a Carson Wentz-led Eagles team. Eli Manning had easily the worst season of his career in 2017, but he threw for 434 yards and 3 touchdowns when the Eagles visited the Meadowlands in Week 15. The Eagles generally held their own defensively at home, but even awful teams were capable of racking up monster passing yards against them away from South Philly.
That isn't to say that the Patriots won't run the football, but they will likely look to establish a passing rhythm to help open up running lanes for the likes of Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead. The Patriots, meanwhile, typically eviscerated teams with pass defenses in the bottom half of the league--even in road games. The Pats beat the Bills 23-3 in Buffalo, and the Bills pass defense is was ranked 20th in the league. Brady threw for 447 passing yards and 3 touchdowns as the Patriots soundly defeated the Saints in New Orleans 36-20. The scary thing is that the Patriots even put up serious passing yards on teams with highly ranked pass defenses to such as the Broncos and Steelers.
PREDICTION
So what does this all mean? Well the Eagles ranked 3rd in points scored and 4th in points allowed this season, while the Patriots ranked 2nd in points score and 5th in points allowed this season. The difference is that only the Patriots defense traveled well. The fact that the Eagles allowed an average of nearly 11 more points on the road than at home is just too great a statistic to ignore, and their pass defense on the road was exposed by bottom-feeding teams even if the Eagles ended up finding a way to win. The fact that the Patriots defense allowed less points per game on the road than at home this year and the team experienced a greater margin of victory away from Foxborough means their success doesn't depend on a home crowd, a lack of travel, or environmental familiarity. Rob Gronkowski's presence will do wonders to take pressure off of the Patriots' other weapons, give Brady more time to throw, and help to open up holes for running backs. Gronk is a nearly uncoverable red-zone target, and only an injury tends to reduce his effectiveness. It would certainly be nice to see a franchise win its first ring, but nothing about the Eagles' road record this season suggests that Nick Foles can out-duel history's most successful playoff quarterback.
PATRIOTS 31-23
I CAN'T SAY I HAVE A DOG IN THIS FIGHT, BUT LET'S HOPE FOR AN EXCITING GAME! STAY TUNED FOR A POST-COMBINE FIRST INSTALLMENT OF THE RAVENS DRAFT WISHLIST, AND HATS OFF TO RAY LEWIS FOR REACHING FOOTBALL IMMORTALITY IN CANTON!!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS! (GO TRADE UP IN THE SECOND ROUND TO DRAFT D.J. MOORE!!)
The Eagles are an entirely different team than the one that last took the field on a Super Bowl Sunday. Donovan McNabb has long since retired, and Andy Reid has found his way to Kansas City to turn the Chiefs into a playoff team. Nearly all the players currently in the league were teenagers or children when the Patriots and Eagles last squared off for a title, and yet here's Tom Brady dominating against an entirely new generation of athletes.
As historically dominant as the Patriots have been, they're not invincible--it just often seems that way. Like any other team in the league, the Patriots have won games this season by razor thin margins and have even been beaten on occasion. The Patriots even tend to struggle at the beginning of the regular season as they rotate through players (except Tom Brady) with a fairly high degree of frequency, and it takes them time to get new pieces to fit into a tried and true system.
Not only do the Eagles have a different quarterback than they had in 2004, but they have a different quarterback than they had through the first 14 weeks of this season. It's highly likely that the Eagles wouldn't have had nearly the same record with Nick Foles as their starting quarterback for the entirety of the 2017 regular season, but Foles has, nevertheless, proven himself worth of the playoffs by doing just enough to beat the Falcons, and putting on a clinic against a Vikings defense that spent nearly all of this season suffocating opposing offenses. Foles may not be Carson Wentz, but maybe he doesn't have to be Wentz to get the job done. After all, Tom Brady was a backup once too...
I haven't run into many people who have expressed the belief that either one of these teams will win in a blowout. Both the Patriots and Eagles produced defenses that allowed some of the fewest points in the league this season, and the last two Super Bowls the Patriots won were impossibly close. Who could forget last season when the Patriots won despite literally never leading during regulation, and equally unforgettable was New England's goal line stand against the Seahawks two years earlier to shock everyone who assumed Marshawn Lynch would simply rumble for one triumphant yard to secure Seattle's second Super Bowl win in a row. As dominant as the Patriots have been, they don't tend to dominate their opponents in the big game, and that's what will hopefully make 52 nearly, if not equally, exciting!
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
Both the Eagles and Patriots faced elite defenses in their respective conference championship games two weeks ago. The Patriots found a way to score on the vaunted Jaguars defense after going down 14-0 early on, Tom Brady hit Danny Amendola for the go-ahead score with only a few minutes left in the forth quarter. The Eagles, meanwhile, absolutely embarrassed a Vikings defense that wasn't used to being embarrassed. One might conclude that the Eagles have a greater degree of momentum coming into this game given the way they trounced their last opponent. After all, the Steelers put up a whopping 42 points on that same Jaguars defense only one week earlier. One thing to remember, however, is that the Patriots found a way to move the football on that Jaguars defense without significant use of Rob Gronkowski as he was taken out of the game with a brutal helmet to helmet hit early on.
Rob Gronkowski accounted for 23.6 percent of Tom Brady's passing yards this season and 25% of Brady's passing touchdowns. Gronk is also an excellent blocker, and even when he's not receiving the football, he's consistently commands double teams, thus, helping to open things up for New England's other offensive weapons. The last time the Patriots played without Gronk before the playoffs, they lost to the Miami Dolphins 27-20. Suffice it to say that the fact that the Patriots were able to find a way to move the football through the air against the team with the league's most dominant corner tandem means they'll be that much better when Brady's biggest target returns.
The Philadelphia Eagles were able to stifle and stonewall some pretty elite weapons when they beat the Falcons three weeks ago. With only the 17th ranked pass defense over the course of the regular season, I didn't believe the Eagles would be able to cover the likes of Mohammed Sanu and the great Julio Jones. Lo and behold, the Eagles defensive line was able to consistently pressure Matt Ryan enough to throw him off his game, and Philly even stopped the Falcons from scoring from inside the 2 yard line to seal the win. What shouldn't have been ignored was the Eagles' 13.375 points allowed per game at home during the regular season. The Eagles, however, won't be playing at home this weekend.
Philadelphia's defense performed quite differently on the road in 2017. They allowed an average of 23.5 points per away game, and allowed some extremely weak teams to play them closely as a result. The Patriots allowed a surprisingly high 21.875 points per game in Foxborough during the 2017 regular season, but they allowed a far more impressive 16.125 points per game on the road. Seldom do we see defenses perform better on the road than at home, but somehow that's exactly what happened for New England this season. That isn't to say New England's defense performs badly at home as it just held the Titans to 14 points in a divisional round rout and held the Jaguars to 20 points only a week after the Jags rumbled through Pittsburgh for 45 points largely on the legs of Leonard Fournette. What's equally astonishing is the fact that the Patriots road offense was nearly as good as their offense was at home. On the road, the Patriots scored and average 27.875 points per game, and at home they averaged 29.375 points per game. That means that the Patriots' average margin of victory on the road was 11.75 points, and that's over 4 points higher than their 7.5 point average margin of victory at home.
New England's only road defeat this season was the aforementioned loss to the Dolphins without Gronk who was, at the time, serving a suspension for a dirty hit on a Bills player the week before. A team that can go 7-1 on the road, more specifically 7-0 with their current available personnel, should be incredibly dangerous in a game held on a neutral field. As highly touted as the Vikings defense was this season, it allowed a significantly greater number of points per game on the road than that of the Patriots, and it was for that reason that I predicted an Eagles win in the NFC Championship. A defense that travels well is a defense built for the post-season.
To correctly assess the Eagles' chances of slowing down Brady and company, we'll have to examine how the Eagles fared outside of Philly against pass-heavy teams. The Patriots did finish 10th in rushing yards this season, but it's safe to say that they'll respect the run-stuffing ability of the Eagles' league-leading run defense, and choose to instead attack Philly's secondary. Philadelphia ranked a modest 17th in the league in pass defense this season, and because of this, they allowed teams such top 10 passing teams as the Chargers and Rams to put up significant offensive yards in road games. The Chargers were 0-4 when Philip Rivers threw for 347 yards and two touchdowns in a narrow 26-24 loss in San Diego to a Carson Wentz-led Eagles team. Eli Manning had easily the worst season of his career in 2017, but he threw for 434 yards and 3 touchdowns when the Eagles visited the Meadowlands in Week 15. The Eagles generally held their own defensively at home, but even awful teams were capable of racking up monster passing yards against them away from South Philly.
That isn't to say that the Patriots won't run the football, but they will likely look to establish a passing rhythm to help open up running lanes for the likes of Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead. The Patriots, meanwhile, typically eviscerated teams with pass defenses in the bottom half of the league--even in road games. The Pats beat the Bills 23-3 in Buffalo, and the Bills pass defense is was ranked 20th in the league. Brady threw for 447 passing yards and 3 touchdowns as the Patriots soundly defeated the Saints in New Orleans 36-20. The scary thing is that the Patriots even put up serious passing yards on teams with highly ranked pass defenses to such as the Broncos and Steelers.
PREDICTION
So what does this all mean? Well the Eagles ranked 3rd in points scored and 4th in points allowed this season, while the Patriots ranked 2nd in points score and 5th in points allowed this season. The difference is that only the Patriots defense traveled well. The fact that the Eagles allowed an average of nearly 11 more points on the road than at home is just too great a statistic to ignore, and their pass defense on the road was exposed by bottom-feeding teams even if the Eagles ended up finding a way to win. The fact that the Patriots defense allowed less points per game on the road than at home this year and the team experienced a greater margin of victory away from Foxborough means their success doesn't depend on a home crowd, a lack of travel, or environmental familiarity. Rob Gronkowski's presence will do wonders to take pressure off of the Patriots' other weapons, give Brady more time to throw, and help to open up holes for running backs. Gronk is a nearly uncoverable red-zone target, and only an injury tends to reduce his effectiveness. It would certainly be nice to see a franchise win its first ring, but nothing about the Eagles' road record this season suggests that Nick Foles can out-duel history's most successful playoff quarterback.
PATRIOTS 31-23
I CAN'T SAY I HAVE A DOG IN THIS FIGHT, BUT LET'S HOPE FOR AN EXCITING GAME! STAY TUNED FOR A POST-COMBINE FIRST INSTALLMENT OF THE RAVENS DRAFT WISHLIST, AND HATS OFF TO RAY LEWIS FOR REACHING FOOTBALL IMMORTALITY IN CANTON!!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS! (GO TRADE UP IN THE SECOND ROUND TO DRAFT D.J. MOORE!!)
Sunday, January 21, 2018
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Eagles and Vikings have proven startlingly similar this season. Both teams finished with conference-leading 13-3 records, and more impressively, both teams have made it all the way to the NFC Championship with with backup quarterbacks. If someone had told me before the season that three of the last four quarterbacks left in the NFL playoffs would be Case Keenum, Nick Foles, and Blake Bortles, I would have fought through uncontrollable laughter to tell them they would be disappointed with reality--aaaand yet here we are.
No matter how the rules have changed, and no matter how many times people insist that this is a "quarterback driven league", teams with ferocious defenses and strong rushing attacks continue to find success in the post season. Teams such as the Seahawks, the Broncos, and now Vikings and Eagles demonstrate that while elite quarterbacks have won a good number of Super Bowls, an elite quarterback is nowhere near required to get there and win. The issue is that contracts for top free agent quarterbacks have gotten so out of control that teams struggle to surround those quarterbacks with enough talent to get to or through a post-season. Instead, teams with talented young quarterbacks still on a rookie contract or a solid journeyman quarterback find themselves able to accrue enough talent at other positions to enjoy a 3-4 year window within which to make a serious run at a Lombardi trophy.
Here in Baltimore we are quite familiar with the competitive opportunity of that rookie contract window, and unfortunately, just as familiar with the crippling lasting effects of a major quarterback contract. While I have no intention of turning this into a Joe Flacco bashing session, I marvel at just how frequently the "you need to have a franchise quarterback" idea proves untrue. That isn't to say a team shouldn't have a talented, effective gunslinger, but NFL franchises need to start considering the idea that they shouldn't overpay just because the market dictates it at that particular moment. Teams must, instead, offer quarterback contracts based on fair and accurate evaluations of talent and track record--and if a quarterback chooses to go to another team that can afford to overpay them, they shouldn't fear moving forward with someone else. One might point to Tom Brady to offer proof to the contrary, but he is actually the perfect example of exactly the trend I'm describing. Brady won three Super Bowls in his youth window, and then after being paid as an elite quarterback, his team went a full decade before winning again. When they DID win again, it was because Brady signed a cap-friendly deal that allowed his team to sign key, defensive free agents such as Darrelle Revis. Brady, for example, has a salary cap hit that is nearly 11 million dollars lower than Joe Flacco's this season, but I digress. Suffice it to say that people simply shouldn't be surprised that three out of the four teams playing today will be starting quarterbacks that come nowhere near entering the "elite" debate.
The Eagles and Vikings are two seemingly evenly matched teams. Both feature elite defenses; the Eagles finish the season ranked 4th in both yards and points allowed, and the Vikings finished the season proudly ranked 1st in both categories. Philadelphia's offense finished the season ranked 7th while the Vikings finished the season ranked 11th, but it should be noted that Philly's ranking would likely be at least a few notches lower on the list had Carson Wentz not been the starter for most of the regular season. The Vikings ranked 7th in the league this season in rushing, and the Eagles ranked 3rd. Minnesota, on the other hand, ranked 11th in the league in passing yards per game, while the Eagles ranked 13th. The Eagles are nearly undefeated at home this season, and the Vikings went 6-2 on the road. The Vikings' only road losses came against the Steelers right after losing their starting quarterback, and then against the Panthers in a close-fought late season battle. As evenly matched as these teams appear to be, before we formulate an opinion on which will win today, we must examine exactly how good the Eagles have been on the road and how good the Vikings have been on the road.
The Vikings defense is unquestionably dominant, but it was significantly less dominant on the road. Minnesota allowed opponents to score a mere 12.5 points per game at home this season, but that number rose to 19 points per game on the road. Even more telling were the road games wherein the Vikings gave up a startling number of points such as their 26 points given up to the Steelers, 30 points given up to the Redskins, and 31 points given up to the Panthers. The Vikings defense also allowed the Saints to mount a furious late comeback that almost spoiled Minnesota's playoff run. Were it not for an epic defensive collapse by the Saints in the waning seconds of the game, we might be discussing the possibility of an epic showdown between Drew Brees and Tom Brady. The Vikings offense prevailed in miraculous fashion, but it has become clear that this Vikings defense, despite its top ranking, is not impervious and certainly not on par with the historically great defenses of the Super Bowl era.
The Eagles defense allowed 18.4 points per game on the season, but that number dropped to an extremely stingy 13.375 in home games. More telling than the regular season statistics, however, was just how well the Eagles limited a star-studded Falcons offense last weekend. Not only did the Eagles hold the Falcons to 10 points, they stopped Matt Ryan and company from getting into the endzone from the 2 yard line at the end of the game. The Eagles, in fact, haven't allowed a touchdown in the final two minutes of any game this season. The Eagles defense held Matt Ryan to 210 ten yards and a single touchdown. If they can match up well with the likes of Julio Jones and Mohammed Sanu, they should have little trouble with Adam Thielen and Stephon Diggs.
Speaking of Adam Thielen, it was reported this week that Thielen will suit up today, but he has multiple fractures in his back and was limited in practice all week. This may very well prove a deciding factor in this game. The Eagles will also have the services of Sidney Jones, the highly touted but previously injured draft pick who has suddenly returned to health and practice. I don't wish to diminish the surprisingly impressive year that Case Keenum has enjoyed, but it's difficult to imagine he has the talent and offensive weapons to put up points on a defense that just held the Falcons to 10 points--but how has the Vikings offense performed on the road this season anyway?
The Vikings offense averaged 23 points per game on the road this season, which is only 4 points more than they allowed on average. A 23 point performance, though, may just be enough to win this game. The Eagles offense has performed well enough to win games following the loss of Carson Wentz, but the production has fallen off a cliff--especially against quality teams. The season-ending loss to the Cowboys shouldn't be counted statistically as the Eagles sat their starters, but against the Raiders the week earlier and then last week against Falcons, the Eagles offense looked startlingly weak compared to before Wentz went down.
Facts and statistics usually tend to point me towards one team or another by this point in my analysis, but this is simply one of the toughest matchups to predict I've encountered over the life of Purple Nightmare. The Eagles offense isn't great, but it appears as though the Vikings are banged up enough at this point that they'll struggle to consistently move the ball against an Eagles defense that has been sensational at home. Adam Thielen's back injury won't keep him out of the game, but it's difficult to think he'll be anywhere near 100% with broken bones in his back. The Eagles defensive line looked utterly ferocious both stopping the run and rushing the passer last week, and Case Keenum isn't nearly as athletic as Matt Ryan. The Eagles showed that they could score in clutch moments against a formidable Falcons defense that traveled extremely well all year, and they should find key moments where they'll be able to mount drives against a Vikings defense that struggled at home last week to stop the Saints once Xavier Rhodes got hurt and was forced to leave the game. This should be an absolute defensive sluggfest, but the Vikings defense simply hasn't traveled well enough this season to give me confidence they'll come out on top today.
PREDICTION: EAGLES 19-16
LET'S HOPE FOR SOME GREAT FOOTBALL TODAY AND STAY TUNED NEXT WEEK FOR A PRE-COMBINE DRAFT WISHLIST INSTALLMENT!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!
Saturday, January 20, 2018
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense, as predicted, did not shut down the Steelers offense. It allowed a whopping 42 points, and looked tired for much of the second half. That defense did, nevertheless, do enough in the first half of the game to slow the Steelers down juuust enough to give their offense an edge in the waning minutes of the game. The Jaguars offense, however, was the true difference maker, as it completed drive after drive at pivotal moments.
Scoring 45 points against a quality team on the road and in the playoffs is no easy feat. The question is whether that points total had more to do with the Steelers' run-stopping deficiencies following the loss of Ryan Shazier, or whether it was the result of the Jaguars elevating their level of play. Given the fact that the Bills held the Jags to 10 points a week earlier, I have to conclude that Jacksonville's offensive production was due largely to the Steelers' lack of talent and depth at the middle linebacker position.
So who then are the Jaguars? Are they the team that put up 45 points in Pittsburgh, or are they the team that put up 10 points in Buffalo a week earlier? The Jaguars' record in the three weeks leading up to the Steelers game would suggest the latter. When going up quality teams, the Jags stumbled. They allowed a 5-win 49ers team to put a whopping 44 points and what had previously been regarded as the NFL's top defensive unit. They lost to a Titans team that was just absolutely blasted by the Patriots last week, and then, as previously mentioned, they barely squeaked by the Buffalo Bills. The Jaguars are not predictably dominant. They're capable of putting up a dominant performance when they force a ton of turnovers, but they don't typically stonewall a decent offense. They, like the Ravens, put up dominant defensive performances against bad teams, and occasionally force a good team into turning over the ball enough times to tip the scales in their favor.
The Patriots experienced a pair of hiccups early in the season with their Week 1 42-27 loss to the Chiefs and their 33-30 loss to the Panthers in Week 4. Since then, however, they have almost never faltered--even against playoff contenders. After starting the season 2-2, the Brady and company won 11 of their next 12 games to finish 13-3 with the top seed in the AFC going into the playoffs. The Pats also put up 5 strong wins over playoff teams, which is more than all the other teams that reached the post season with the exception of the Vikings.
As one looks at the Patriots' defensive statistics, one thing stands out as odd: the Patriots ranked 30th in passing yards allowed, 20th in rushing yards allowed, but they ranked 4th in the league in points allowed per game. I expected to see that the Patriots had consistently forced many turnovers this season, but they had just over half as many as the Ravens. It turns out that a large part of what made the Patriots defense effective despite allowing a sizable total of yards on the season was their redzone defense. The Patriots redzone defense ranked 5th in the league--just behind Jacksonville. The Patriots allowed touchdowns scored in just 44% of opponents' trips to the redzone at home this season. Pittsburgh, by contrast, allowed touchdowns scored during trips in the redzone a whopping 91% of the time in home games this season. It should, therefore, come as no surprise that the Steelers struggled so hard to keep the Jaguars from scoring in critical situations. Over the last 3 games, however, the Jaguars ranked a dismal 23rd in the league in redzone defense, and it shouldn't come as any surprise that they also allowed the Steelers to score basically at will in the second half of the game.
The Patriots defense has clearly received a major boost from the acquisition of a rested James Harrison. Harrison is not elite at his position anymore, but he is a clear upgrade over what the Patriots had, and the fact that he's played an incredibly limited number snaps in 2017 means his body isn't as beaten down as starters who have played 14-16 games this season. There's no question that New England's offensive consistency helps to give its defense a major break. The Patriots lead the league in first downs per game, and that helps them win the time of possession battle and keep their own defense off the field. One typically doesn't think of the Patriots as a strong rushing team, but they ranked 10th in the league this year with nearly 1900 rushing yards, and they did so without a premier running back. Instead, the Patriots spread the ball out to Dion Lewis, Mike Gilislee, Rex Burkhead, and a smattering of other players. Dion Lewis had the strongest performance with 896 rushing yards on the season, but he's not feared the way Le'veon Bell or Ezekiel Elliott are feared.
The Patriots running backs benefit tremendously from the success of their passing attack. Teams are forced to place tremendous defensive emphasis on stopping Brady through the air, and it often leaves the run wide open. Tom Brady ranked first in the league in passing yards during the regular season, and despite his age, ranked 5th in completion percentage. What is even more astounding is that Tom Brady found a way to lead the league in passing yards with only a single wide receiver ranked in the 40 in the league, Brandin Cooks. Cooks finished 2017 with 1082 receiver yards, and Rob Gronkowski finished the season with 1084 receiving yards to easily remain the league's most dominant tight end, but those two weapons account for less than half of Brady's yardage. The secret has been Brady's ability to spread the ball out to a host of his weapons including Danny Amendola, Chris Hogan, James White, Rex Burkhead, Dion Lewis, and Philip Dorsett. All of these weapons play their roles effectively, and while keying in on Gronk will always have to be a priority, this team showed last year that it can win a Super Bowl without him.
One could continue to go on and on about how masterful the Patriots offense has been this season, but one major factor could bring all of that to a grinding halt. A few days ago Tom Brady reportedly injured his throwing hand. It sounded as though he jammed some of his fingers during practice, and he wore protective gloves when he returned to work. Brady doesn't have tremendous hands, so grip could be a major issue if he isn't able to squeeze his jammed fingers with much strength. This is totally unknown factor as we haven't seen Brady play with such an injury, and the Patriots were mum about the nature and severity of it during press conferences. If Tom's hand hasn't fully recovered by game time, this could end up becoming a game wherein the Jaguars turn in another incredibly opportunistic performance and capitalize off of throwing errors made by an injured #12. Because this injury is an unknown commodity, however, and jammed fingers can often only take a matter of days to return to normal, I have to assume that Brady will be good to go today.
As great as the Patriots offense has been, the Jaguars offense has been nothing to scoff at this season. They finished 6th in the league in points scored per game, and they even scored a whopping 28.1 points in road games this season. Puzzlingly enough, a high scoring average in road games only produced a 4-4 road record on the season. Much of that had to do with just how dominant the Jaguars were on the road early in the season with huge wins over the Texans (29-7) and the Steelers (30-9) coupled with how poorly they performed on the road down the stretch of the regular season with road losses to the Cardinals (27-24), the 49ers (44-33) and Titans (15-10).
I don't pretend to be unbiased. I love the Ravens, I hate the Steelers, and I've loathed Tom Brady for most of his career. I have taken the Patriots to task on social media in the past regarding their various cheating scandals, and I've been mystified by perceived gifts given to them by referees over the years such as the tuck rule or roughing the passer calls for brushing up against Tommy's leg. More recently, however, I've come to respect the level of preparedness and attention to detail exhibited by Bill Belichick. When I read that Belichick had his players squatting 85% of their one rep maxes the week of last year's Super Bowl, I realized that he has a similar philosophy to mine on not changing training routine going into a game. In other words, if it worked all season, why suddenly change it just because its the Super Bowl?
Bill doesn't have nearly the most talented roster in the league--far from it. He has an elite quarterback and an elite tight end, but no one else's stats jump off the page. Instead, he uses scheme and discipline to elevate the level of play of solid players. His control over his own program has been the reason that he wins without Gronk and without Brady. No one is going to deny Brady's greatness, but Bill took the Patriots to an 11-5 season with Matt Cassel in 2008...and Cassel is a bum. When Brady missed the first 4 games of last season, Bill went 3-0 with Jimmy Garoppolo and only lost once he had to start his 3rd string arm. The Patriots are dramatically better coached than a vastly more talented Steelers team, and only one team in the league has ever beaten them in an AFC Championship game set in New England (CAW! heh heh). The Jaguars run has been impressive this season, and they'll certainly be major contenders for at least another couple of years with the core of their current roster, but their defense is about to go up against an offense run with surgical precision in one of the harshest playoff road environments imaginable. The Belichick-Brady duo might not last many more years, but they've proven they can still dominate their conference.
PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 31-23
The Jaguars offense depends largely on Blake Bortles' ability to scramble for first downs, and the Patriots will be far more disciplined than the Steelers were last week. Belichick will place a spy on Bortles, and he'll be contained rather than over-pursued as the Steelers outside backers did so often last week. The Patriots defense will stop the run more effectively than the Steelers defense did, and force Bortles to try to beat them through the air. The Jaguars' top 2 corners are great, but two elite defenders are not nearly enough to stop the Patriots offense the way the Patriots spread the ball around. The Steelers did one major favor for the Patriots: they showed showed just about every weakness the Jaguars defense has, and they demonstrated just how quickly the Jags can give up points. This should be an entertaining game, but we'll likely see an incredibly familiar team in the Super Bowl representing the AFC once again.
ENJOY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Scoring 45 points against a quality team on the road and in the playoffs is no easy feat. The question is whether that points total had more to do with the Steelers' run-stopping deficiencies following the loss of Ryan Shazier, or whether it was the result of the Jaguars elevating their level of play. Given the fact that the Bills held the Jags to 10 points a week earlier, I have to conclude that Jacksonville's offensive production was due largely to the Steelers' lack of talent and depth at the middle linebacker position.
So who then are the Jaguars? Are they the team that put up 45 points in Pittsburgh, or are they the team that put up 10 points in Buffalo a week earlier? The Jaguars' record in the three weeks leading up to the Steelers game would suggest the latter. When going up quality teams, the Jags stumbled. They allowed a 5-win 49ers team to put a whopping 44 points and what had previously been regarded as the NFL's top defensive unit. They lost to a Titans team that was just absolutely blasted by the Patriots last week, and then, as previously mentioned, they barely squeaked by the Buffalo Bills. The Jaguars are not predictably dominant. They're capable of putting up a dominant performance when they force a ton of turnovers, but they don't typically stonewall a decent offense. They, like the Ravens, put up dominant defensive performances against bad teams, and occasionally force a good team into turning over the ball enough times to tip the scales in their favor.
The Patriots experienced a pair of hiccups early in the season with their Week 1 42-27 loss to the Chiefs and their 33-30 loss to the Panthers in Week 4. Since then, however, they have almost never faltered--even against playoff contenders. After starting the season 2-2, the Brady and company won 11 of their next 12 games to finish 13-3 with the top seed in the AFC going into the playoffs. The Pats also put up 5 strong wins over playoff teams, which is more than all the other teams that reached the post season with the exception of the Vikings.
As one looks at the Patriots' defensive statistics, one thing stands out as odd: the Patriots ranked 30th in passing yards allowed, 20th in rushing yards allowed, but they ranked 4th in the league in points allowed per game. I expected to see that the Patriots had consistently forced many turnovers this season, but they had just over half as many as the Ravens. It turns out that a large part of what made the Patriots defense effective despite allowing a sizable total of yards on the season was their redzone defense. The Patriots redzone defense ranked 5th in the league--just behind Jacksonville. The Patriots allowed touchdowns scored in just 44% of opponents' trips to the redzone at home this season. Pittsburgh, by contrast, allowed touchdowns scored during trips in the redzone a whopping 91% of the time in home games this season. It should, therefore, come as no surprise that the Steelers struggled so hard to keep the Jaguars from scoring in critical situations. Over the last 3 games, however, the Jaguars ranked a dismal 23rd in the league in redzone defense, and it shouldn't come as any surprise that they also allowed the Steelers to score basically at will in the second half of the game.
The Patriots defense has clearly received a major boost from the acquisition of a rested James Harrison. Harrison is not elite at his position anymore, but he is a clear upgrade over what the Patriots had, and the fact that he's played an incredibly limited number snaps in 2017 means his body isn't as beaten down as starters who have played 14-16 games this season. There's no question that New England's offensive consistency helps to give its defense a major break. The Patriots lead the league in first downs per game, and that helps them win the time of possession battle and keep their own defense off the field. One typically doesn't think of the Patriots as a strong rushing team, but they ranked 10th in the league this year with nearly 1900 rushing yards, and they did so without a premier running back. Instead, the Patriots spread the ball out to Dion Lewis, Mike Gilislee, Rex Burkhead, and a smattering of other players. Dion Lewis had the strongest performance with 896 rushing yards on the season, but he's not feared the way Le'veon Bell or Ezekiel Elliott are feared.
The Patriots running backs benefit tremendously from the success of their passing attack. Teams are forced to place tremendous defensive emphasis on stopping Brady through the air, and it often leaves the run wide open. Tom Brady ranked first in the league in passing yards during the regular season, and despite his age, ranked 5th in completion percentage. What is even more astounding is that Tom Brady found a way to lead the league in passing yards with only a single wide receiver ranked in the 40 in the league, Brandin Cooks. Cooks finished 2017 with 1082 receiver yards, and Rob Gronkowski finished the season with 1084 receiving yards to easily remain the league's most dominant tight end, but those two weapons account for less than half of Brady's yardage. The secret has been Brady's ability to spread the ball out to a host of his weapons including Danny Amendola, Chris Hogan, James White, Rex Burkhead, Dion Lewis, and Philip Dorsett. All of these weapons play their roles effectively, and while keying in on Gronk will always have to be a priority, this team showed last year that it can win a Super Bowl without him.
One could continue to go on and on about how masterful the Patriots offense has been this season, but one major factor could bring all of that to a grinding halt. A few days ago Tom Brady reportedly injured his throwing hand. It sounded as though he jammed some of his fingers during practice, and he wore protective gloves when he returned to work. Brady doesn't have tremendous hands, so grip could be a major issue if he isn't able to squeeze his jammed fingers with much strength. This is totally unknown factor as we haven't seen Brady play with such an injury, and the Patriots were mum about the nature and severity of it during press conferences. If Tom's hand hasn't fully recovered by game time, this could end up becoming a game wherein the Jaguars turn in another incredibly opportunistic performance and capitalize off of throwing errors made by an injured #12. Because this injury is an unknown commodity, however, and jammed fingers can often only take a matter of days to return to normal, I have to assume that Brady will be good to go today.
As great as the Patriots offense has been, the Jaguars offense has been nothing to scoff at this season. They finished 6th in the league in points scored per game, and they even scored a whopping 28.1 points in road games this season. Puzzlingly enough, a high scoring average in road games only produced a 4-4 road record on the season. Much of that had to do with just how dominant the Jaguars were on the road early in the season with huge wins over the Texans (29-7) and the Steelers (30-9) coupled with how poorly they performed on the road down the stretch of the regular season with road losses to the Cardinals (27-24), the 49ers (44-33) and Titans (15-10).
I don't pretend to be unbiased. I love the Ravens, I hate the Steelers, and I've loathed Tom Brady for most of his career. I have taken the Patriots to task on social media in the past regarding their various cheating scandals, and I've been mystified by perceived gifts given to them by referees over the years such as the tuck rule or roughing the passer calls for brushing up against Tommy's leg. More recently, however, I've come to respect the level of preparedness and attention to detail exhibited by Bill Belichick. When I read that Belichick had his players squatting 85% of their one rep maxes the week of last year's Super Bowl, I realized that he has a similar philosophy to mine on not changing training routine going into a game. In other words, if it worked all season, why suddenly change it just because its the Super Bowl?
Bill doesn't have nearly the most talented roster in the league--far from it. He has an elite quarterback and an elite tight end, but no one else's stats jump off the page. Instead, he uses scheme and discipline to elevate the level of play of solid players. His control over his own program has been the reason that he wins without Gronk and without Brady. No one is going to deny Brady's greatness, but Bill took the Patriots to an 11-5 season with Matt Cassel in 2008...and Cassel is a bum. When Brady missed the first 4 games of last season, Bill went 3-0 with Jimmy Garoppolo and only lost once he had to start his 3rd string arm. The Patriots are dramatically better coached than a vastly more talented Steelers team, and only one team in the league has ever beaten them in an AFC Championship game set in New England (CAW! heh heh). The Jaguars run has been impressive this season, and they'll certainly be major contenders for at least another couple of years with the core of their current roster, but their defense is about to go up against an offense run with surgical precision in one of the harshest playoff road environments imaginable. The Belichick-Brady duo might not last many more years, but they've proven they can still dominate their conference.
PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 31-23
The Jaguars offense depends largely on Blake Bortles' ability to scramble for first downs, and the Patriots will be far more disciplined than the Steelers were last week. Belichick will place a spy on Bortles, and he'll be contained rather than over-pursued as the Steelers outside backers did so often last week. The Patriots defense will stop the run more effectively than the Steelers defense did, and force Bortles to try to beat them through the air. The Jaguars' top 2 corners are great, but two elite defenders are not nearly enough to stop the Patriots offense the way the Patriots spread the ball around. The Steelers did one major favor for the Patriots: they showed showed just about every weakness the Jaguars defense has, and they demonstrated just how quickly the Jags can give up points. This should be an entertaining game, but we'll likely see an incredibly familiar team in the Super Bowl representing the AFC once again.
ENJOY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, January 14, 2018
NFL PLAYOFFS DIVISIONAL ROUND PREDICTIONS: SAINTS AT VIKINGS
The New Orleans Saints had a rough start to their season as their first two opponents were the Vikings and Patriots. The Saints lost 29-19 in Minnesota and 36-20 against the Patriots in New Orleans, but they followed their 0-2 start with an 8-0 run and they finished the regular season 11-5. The Saints offense has shown the ability to produce yardage and points not only on the arm of breeze but also the legs of Mark Ingram and the rookie sensation Alvin Kamara. The Vikings, meanwhile, have weathered a flurry of injuries to key players without faltering, and put together a dominant 13-3 season. As a bonus, the Vikings have the good fortune of the Super Bowl taking place in their home stadium. If the Vikings were to reach the Super Bowl, they would likely have an overwhelming home field advantage. First, they're going to have to win their next two games.
The Vikings are nearly perfect at home this season with a 7-1 record in Minneapolis. The Saints, by contrast, are 4-4 on the road, and lost all of their last three road contests. I would hate to oversimplify this game, but I have little faith in New Orleans to go into Minnesota and beat a rested Vikings team. The Saints ranked 10th in the league in points allowed this season, but the Vikings D ranked first, and the Vikings offense ranked a surprising 10th despite being led by Case Keenum. Keenum, in fact, finished the regular season with the 2rd ranked quarterback rating in the league, much to the amazement of anyone who realized it. New Orleans offense ranked 4th on the season in scoring with 28 points per game, but that average fell in road games to 23.375 and only 20.33 during their current road losing streak.
This all isn't to say the Saints won't put up a fight, but going on the road to face a rested team with the greatest defense in the NFL is a tall task for any team--especially one that has struggled on the road for the last two months. After watching the Vikings suffocate nearly every team they played this year, I have little doubt that they'll at least limit the Saints offense to under 30 points, and that might just be enough to win this game.
PREDICTION: VIKINGS 30-23
AS I WRITE THIS, THE JAGUARS JUST PUT WHAT SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE PROVERBIAL NAIL IN THE STEELERS' COFFIN!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!
The Vikings are nearly perfect at home this season with a 7-1 record in Minneapolis. The Saints, by contrast, are 4-4 on the road, and lost all of their last three road contests. I would hate to oversimplify this game, but I have little faith in New Orleans to go into Minnesota and beat a rested Vikings team. The Saints ranked 10th in the league in points allowed this season, but the Vikings D ranked first, and the Vikings offense ranked a surprising 10th despite being led by Case Keenum. Keenum, in fact, finished the regular season with the 2rd ranked quarterback rating in the league, much to the amazement of anyone who realized it. New Orleans offense ranked 4th on the season in scoring with 28 points per game, but that average fell in road games to 23.375 and only 20.33 during their current road losing streak.
This all isn't to say the Saints won't put up a fight, but going on the road to face a rested team with the greatest defense in the NFL is a tall task for any team--especially one that has struggled on the road for the last two months. After watching the Vikings suffocate nearly every team they played this year, I have little doubt that they'll at least limit the Saints offense to under 30 points, and that might just be enough to win this game.
PREDICTION: VIKINGS 30-23
AS I WRITE THIS, THE JAGUARS JUST PUT WHAT SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE PROVERBIAL NAIL IN THE STEELERS' COFFIN!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!
NFL PLAYOFFS DIVISIONAL ROUND: JAGUARS-STEELERS
Much has changed since the Steelers last faced the Jaguars in Pittsburgh. The Steelers offense spent much of the first half of the season struggling to find its rhythm despite the presence of undeniably elite weapons. Big Ben appeared to struggle to put as much zip on his passes, and his accuracy suffered as a result. Roethlisberger's struggled came to a boiling point during a 30-9 rout at the hands of the Jaguars in Pittsburgh in large part due to five interceptions. Following that loss, however, the Steelers went on an 9-1 run to close out the season with their only loss coming in impossibly narrow fashion to the New England Patriots. Sure, many of the games won during that stretch were uncomfortably close as well and not against particularly competitive teams, but in the NFL a win is a win, and a 9-1 run is a monumental feat. So what exactly has changed about these Steelers since these two teams last met--and what has changed about the Jaguars?
The Steelers began the season by squeaking by a Browns team that failed to win a game on the season 21-18. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 263 yards, one touchdown and an interception. Le' Veon Bell, by contrast, only managed 32 rushing yards. The Steelers found far more success facing a Vikings team that had just lost its starting quarterback the following week, but then lost the following game in overtime to a Bears team that confusingly swept the AFC North this year despite winning almost no other games. The Steelers handled the Ravens in Baltimore, but then got absolutely dominated by the Jaguars. So what changed to allow this team to go on a 9-1 run after an up and down start to the season? I first looked for patterns in the production levels of the usual suspects such as Ben, Le'veon, and Antonio. It was difficult to find a correlation between the production of the team's most notorious weapons and the team's success from a wins/losses standpoint, but when I took at look at the production of the Steelers' newest superstar, it all made sense.
Juju Smith-Schuster didn't have the greatest breakout rookie season of the last several years, but he DID have one of the most impressive rookie receiving campaigns of a pass-catcher not picked in the first round. Smith-Schuster, after all, did not register record-breaking elite 40 yard dash time the way John Ross did, nor was he coveted the way Mike Williams, and Corey Davis were following last college football season. Juju Smith Schuster ran a 4.54 forty at the combine, and he was compared to Anquan Boldin. Now Boldin was a great receiver in his day, and he went to the Pro Bowl as a rookie, but he never possessed the game-breaking speed Schuster-Smith displayed many times this season. Whatever the stopwatch said at the combine, it didn't accurately account for his ability to make contested catches, get tough yards after contact, and outrun defensive backs in the open field for big plays. In pads, cleats, and a helmet, Juju has great game speed.
During the early season, Smith-Schuster's production was solid for a rookie, but never spectacular. It should come as no surprise that this was also the period the Steelers struggled offensively. The Steelers had to rely too much on only two players to produce on offense, but by the second half of the season, that changed profoundly. Juju had his breakout game against the Lions where he caught for 193 yards including a 97 yard touchdown that let the football world he had arrived. From that point on, the 62nd pick in the 2017 draft routinely put up spectacular rookie numbers with 97 receiving yards against the Colts, 114 yards against the Patriots, 75 yards against the Texans, and a whopping 143 yards against the Browns even with backup QB throwing to him. During the Steelers' 3-2 start, Juju 32 receiving yards per game, but during the Steelers 9-1 run, he averaged 84.1 receiving yards per game. The presence of another game-breaking weapon meant teams couldn't simply just key in on Bell and Brown. In games where teams allocated their defensive resources to stop Antonio Brown, Juju picked up the slack and put on a show. The Colts, for example, limited Antonio to 47 receiving yards, so Juju caught for 97. The Lions limited Antonio Brown to 70 yards, so Juju caught for 193. When Antonio Brown went down against the Patriots, Juju caught for 114 in a game that the Steelers probably could have won were it not for a bewildering call by their offensive coordinator, Todd Haley, not to spike the ball down near the goal line with time winding down.
Now Smith-Schuster finds himself once against in a position to have to lead the team in receiving yards as Antonio Brown is reportedly "not close to 100%" in his recovery the calf tear he incurred against New England over one month ago. Brown will, nevertheless, attempt to play, but it's difficult to imagine he'll be able to do much against either member of the best corner tandem in the league. Those two corners can't cover every Steelers receiver simultaneously, and that's one reason the combination of Juju, Martavis Bryant, Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell (as a pass-catcher), and Vance McDonald, will present a greater challenge than the unit that was suffocated by the Jaguars earlier this season.
The Jaguars offense, on the other hand, has not exactly gained steam towards the end of the season. The fact that they struggled to put up points on the 26th ranked Buffalo defense bodes poorly going into a game against a rested Steelers team on a cold day...in Pittsburgh. The Steelers D took a big hit when it lost Ryan Shazier, but the return of their best corner, Joe Haden, has helped to mitigate the overall effect of Shazier's loss on the defensive unit as a whole. The key to the Jaguars offense is not the number of passing yards thrown by Blake Bortles. On the contrary, he has put up reasonable yardage totals in losses, and thrown for poor numbers during some wins. Bortles, for example, threw for a mere 95 yards against the Steelers in their 30-9 win in Pittsburgh. Leonard Fournette, however, rushed for 181 yards in that very game. Fournette, in fact, was held to 66.33 rushing yards per game in the Jaguars losses, and he rushed for an average of 91.7 yards per game in the Jaguars' wins.
If the Steelers are able to limit Leonard Fournette early and take a lead over the Jags in the first half, they'll force the ball into the hands of Blake Bortles, who made a ton of mistakes late in the season in games where he was forced to throw the ball 30+ times. Against the 49ers, for example, Bortles attempted 50 passes and threw 3 picks, and in their regular season finale loss to the Titans, Bortles attempted 34 passes and threw two interceptions.
Now the Steelers struggled to stop Fournette earlier in the season when Ryan Shazier was healthy, but as the season has worn on, the Jaguars have appeared to get less and less out of their stud running back. It's possible that a full season has simply taken its toll on his body, or teams may have figured out how to better stop the Jaguars' rushing schemes. One way or another, Stopping Fournette will be a major focus for Pittsburgh.
The Steelers offense has simply kicked into a different gear as that which started so sluggishly over the first five games of the regular season. Big Ben has been better about minimizing mistakes, and the rise of Juju Smith-Schuster has added an element to help take pressure off of Antonio Brown. Martavis Bryant has also been a more consistent contributor after an up-and-down first half of the regular season. Add to all that the fact that this is a Florida team playing in cold weather, and the scales should be tilted in favor of the Steelers.
PREDICTION: STEELERS 27-21
STAY TUNED LATER FOR THE PREDICTION FOR TONIGHT'S SAINTS-VIKINGS MATCHUP!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
The Steelers began the season by squeaking by a Browns team that failed to win a game on the season 21-18. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 263 yards, one touchdown and an interception. Le' Veon Bell, by contrast, only managed 32 rushing yards. The Steelers found far more success facing a Vikings team that had just lost its starting quarterback the following week, but then lost the following game in overtime to a Bears team that confusingly swept the AFC North this year despite winning almost no other games. The Steelers handled the Ravens in Baltimore, but then got absolutely dominated by the Jaguars. So what changed to allow this team to go on a 9-1 run after an up and down start to the season? I first looked for patterns in the production levels of the usual suspects such as Ben, Le'veon, and Antonio. It was difficult to find a correlation between the production of the team's most notorious weapons and the team's success from a wins/losses standpoint, but when I took at look at the production of the Steelers' newest superstar, it all made sense.
Juju Smith-Schuster didn't have the greatest breakout rookie season of the last several years, but he DID have one of the most impressive rookie receiving campaigns of a pass-catcher not picked in the first round. Smith-Schuster, after all, did not register record-breaking elite 40 yard dash time the way John Ross did, nor was he coveted the way Mike Williams, and Corey Davis were following last college football season. Juju Smith Schuster ran a 4.54 forty at the combine, and he was compared to Anquan Boldin. Now Boldin was a great receiver in his day, and he went to the Pro Bowl as a rookie, but he never possessed the game-breaking speed Schuster-Smith displayed many times this season. Whatever the stopwatch said at the combine, it didn't accurately account for his ability to make contested catches, get tough yards after contact, and outrun defensive backs in the open field for big plays. In pads, cleats, and a helmet, Juju has great game speed.
During the early season, Smith-Schuster's production was solid for a rookie, but never spectacular. It should come as no surprise that this was also the period the Steelers struggled offensively. The Steelers had to rely too much on only two players to produce on offense, but by the second half of the season, that changed profoundly. Juju had his breakout game against the Lions where he caught for 193 yards including a 97 yard touchdown that let the football world he had arrived. From that point on, the 62nd pick in the 2017 draft routinely put up spectacular rookie numbers with 97 receiving yards against the Colts, 114 yards against the Patriots, 75 yards against the Texans, and a whopping 143 yards against the Browns even with backup QB throwing to him. During the Steelers' 3-2 start, Juju 32 receiving yards per game, but during the Steelers 9-1 run, he averaged 84.1 receiving yards per game. The presence of another game-breaking weapon meant teams couldn't simply just key in on Bell and Brown. In games where teams allocated their defensive resources to stop Antonio Brown, Juju picked up the slack and put on a show. The Colts, for example, limited Antonio to 47 receiving yards, so Juju caught for 97. The Lions limited Antonio Brown to 70 yards, so Juju caught for 193. When Antonio Brown went down against the Patriots, Juju caught for 114 in a game that the Steelers probably could have won were it not for a bewildering call by their offensive coordinator, Todd Haley, not to spike the ball down near the goal line with time winding down.
Now Smith-Schuster finds himself once against in a position to have to lead the team in receiving yards as Antonio Brown is reportedly "not close to 100%" in his recovery the calf tear he incurred against New England over one month ago. Brown will, nevertheless, attempt to play, but it's difficult to imagine he'll be able to do much against either member of the best corner tandem in the league. Those two corners can't cover every Steelers receiver simultaneously, and that's one reason the combination of Juju, Martavis Bryant, Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell (as a pass-catcher), and Vance McDonald, will present a greater challenge than the unit that was suffocated by the Jaguars earlier this season.
The Jaguars offense, on the other hand, has not exactly gained steam towards the end of the season. The fact that they struggled to put up points on the 26th ranked Buffalo defense bodes poorly going into a game against a rested Steelers team on a cold day...in Pittsburgh. The Steelers D took a big hit when it lost Ryan Shazier, but the return of their best corner, Joe Haden, has helped to mitigate the overall effect of Shazier's loss on the defensive unit as a whole. The key to the Jaguars offense is not the number of passing yards thrown by Blake Bortles. On the contrary, he has put up reasonable yardage totals in losses, and thrown for poor numbers during some wins. Bortles, for example, threw for a mere 95 yards against the Steelers in their 30-9 win in Pittsburgh. Leonard Fournette, however, rushed for 181 yards in that very game. Fournette, in fact, was held to 66.33 rushing yards per game in the Jaguars losses, and he rushed for an average of 91.7 yards per game in the Jaguars' wins.
If the Steelers are able to limit Leonard Fournette early and take a lead over the Jags in the first half, they'll force the ball into the hands of Blake Bortles, who made a ton of mistakes late in the season in games where he was forced to throw the ball 30+ times. Against the 49ers, for example, Bortles attempted 50 passes and threw 3 picks, and in their regular season finale loss to the Titans, Bortles attempted 34 passes and threw two interceptions.
Now the Steelers struggled to stop Fournette earlier in the season when Ryan Shazier was healthy, but as the season has worn on, the Jaguars have appeared to get less and less out of their stud running back. It's possible that a full season has simply taken its toll on his body, or teams may have figured out how to better stop the Jaguars' rushing schemes. One way or another, Stopping Fournette will be a major focus for Pittsburgh.
The Steelers offense has simply kicked into a different gear as that which started so sluggishly over the first five games of the regular season. Big Ben has been better about minimizing mistakes, and the rise of Juju Smith-Schuster has added an element to help take pressure off of Antonio Brown. Martavis Bryant has also been a more consistent contributor after an up-and-down first half of the regular season. Add to all that the fact that this is a Florida team playing in cold weather, and the scales should be tilted in favor of the Steelers.
PREDICTION: STEELERS 27-21
STAY TUNED LATER FOR THE PREDICTION FOR TONIGHT'S SAINTS-VIKINGS MATCHUP!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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