Much has changed since the Steelers last faced the Jaguars in Pittsburgh. The Steelers offense spent much of the first half of the season struggling to find its rhythm despite the presence of undeniably elite weapons. Big Ben appeared to struggle to put as much zip on his passes, and his accuracy suffered as a result. Roethlisberger's struggled came to a boiling point during a 30-9 rout at the hands of the Jaguars in Pittsburgh in large part due to five interceptions. Following that loss, however, the Steelers went on an 9-1 run to close out the season with their only loss coming in impossibly narrow fashion to the New England Patriots. Sure, many of the games won during that stretch were uncomfortably close as well and not against particularly competitive teams, but in the NFL a win is a win, and a 9-1 run is a monumental feat. So what exactly has changed about these Steelers since these two teams last met--and what has changed about the Jaguars?
The Steelers began the season by squeaking by a Browns team that failed to win a game on the season 21-18. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 263 yards, one touchdown and an interception. Le' Veon Bell, by contrast, only managed 32 rushing yards. The Steelers found far more success facing a Vikings team that had just lost its starting quarterback the following week, but then lost the following game in overtime to a Bears team that confusingly swept the AFC North this year despite winning almost no other games. The Steelers handled the Ravens in Baltimore, but then got absolutely dominated by the Jaguars. So what changed to allow this team to go on a 9-1 run after an up and down start to the season? I first looked for patterns in the production levels of the usual suspects such as Ben, Le'veon, and Antonio. It was difficult to find a correlation between the production of the team's most notorious weapons and the team's success from a wins/losses standpoint, but when I took at look at the production of the Steelers' newest superstar, it all made sense.
Juju Smith-Schuster didn't have the greatest breakout rookie season of the last several years, but he DID have one of the most impressive rookie receiving campaigns of a pass-catcher not picked in the first round. Smith-Schuster, after all, did not register record-breaking elite 40 yard dash time the way John Ross did, nor was he coveted the way Mike Williams, and Corey Davis were following last college football season. Juju Smith Schuster ran a 4.54 forty at the combine, and he was compared to Anquan Boldin. Now Boldin was a great receiver in his day, and he went to the Pro Bowl as a rookie, but he never possessed the game-breaking speed Schuster-Smith displayed many times this season. Whatever the stopwatch said at the combine, it didn't accurately account for his ability to make contested catches, get tough yards after contact, and outrun defensive backs in the open field for big plays. In pads, cleats, and a helmet, Juju has great game speed.
During the early season, Smith-Schuster's production was solid for a rookie, but never spectacular. It should come as no surprise that this was also the period the Steelers struggled offensively. The Steelers had to rely too much on only two players to produce on offense, but by the second half of the season, that changed profoundly. Juju had his breakout game against the Lions where he caught for 193 yards including a 97 yard touchdown that let the football world he had arrived. From that point on, the 62nd pick in the 2017 draft routinely put up spectacular rookie numbers with 97 receiving yards against the Colts, 114 yards against the Patriots, 75 yards against the Texans, and a whopping 143 yards against the Browns even with backup QB throwing to him. During the Steelers' 3-2 start, Juju 32 receiving yards per game, but during the Steelers 9-1 run, he averaged 84.1 receiving yards per game. The presence of another game-breaking weapon meant teams couldn't simply just key in on Bell and Brown. In games where teams allocated their defensive resources to stop Antonio Brown, Juju picked up the slack and put on a show. The Colts, for example, limited Antonio to 47 receiving yards, so Juju caught for 97. The Lions limited Antonio Brown to 70 yards, so Juju caught for 193. When Antonio Brown went down against the Patriots, Juju caught for 114 in a game that the Steelers probably could have won were it not for a bewildering call by their offensive coordinator, Todd Haley, not to spike the ball down near the goal line with time winding down.
Now Smith-Schuster finds himself once against in a position to have to lead the team in receiving yards as Antonio Brown is reportedly "not close to 100%" in his recovery the calf tear he incurred against New England over one month ago. Brown will, nevertheless, attempt to play, but it's difficult to imagine he'll be able to do much against either member of the best corner tandem in the league. Those two corners can't cover every Steelers receiver simultaneously, and that's one reason the combination of Juju, Martavis Bryant, Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell (as a pass-catcher), and Vance McDonald, will present a greater challenge than the unit that was suffocated by the Jaguars earlier this season.
The Jaguars offense, on the other hand, has not exactly gained steam towards the end of the season. The fact that they struggled to put up points on the 26th ranked Buffalo defense bodes poorly going into a game against a rested Steelers team on a cold day...in Pittsburgh. The Steelers D took a big hit when it lost Ryan Shazier, but the return of their best corner, Joe Haden, has helped to mitigate the overall effect of Shazier's loss on the defensive unit as a whole. The key to the Jaguars offense is not the number of passing yards thrown by Blake Bortles. On the contrary, he has put up reasonable yardage totals in losses, and thrown for poor numbers during some wins. Bortles, for example, threw for a mere 95 yards against the Steelers in their 30-9 win in Pittsburgh. Leonard Fournette, however, rushed for 181 yards in that very game. Fournette, in fact, was held to 66.33 rushing yards per game in the Jaguars losses, and he rushed for an average of 91.7 yards per game in the Jaguars' wins.
If the Steelers are able to limit Leonard Fournette early and take a lead over the Jags in the first half, they'll force the ball into the hands of Blake Bortles, who made a ton of mistakes late in the season in games where he was forced to throw the ball 30+ times. Against the 49ers, for example, Bortles attempted 50 passes and threw 3 picks, and in their regular season finale loss to the Titans, Bortles attempted 34 passes and threw two interceptions.
Now the Steelers struggled to stop Fournette earlier in the season when Ryan Shazier was healthy, but as the season has worn on, the Jaguars have appeared to get less and less out of their stud running back. It's possible that a full season has simply taken its toll on his body, or teams may have figured out how to better stop the Jaguars' rushing schemes. One way or another, Stopping Fournette will be a major focus for Pittsburgh.
The Steelers offense has simply kicked into a different gear as that which started so sluggishly over the first five games of the regular season. Big Ben has been better about minimizing mistakes, and the rise of Juju Smith-Schuster has added an element to help take pressure off of Antonio Brown. Martavis Bryant has also been a more consistent contributor after an up-and-down first half of the regular season. Add to all that the fact that this is a Florida team playing in cold weather, and the scales should be tilted in favor of the Steelers.
PREDICTION: STEELERS 27-21
STAY TUNED LATER FOR THE PREDICTION FOR TONIGHT'S SAINTS-VIKINGS MATCHUP!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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