Predicting the outcome of a sporting event is not an exact science--far from it. Human error is difficult to predict, and injuries are even harder to see coming. I, for example, could not have predicted that Travis Kelce would be knocked out of last week's Titans-Chiefs matchup, and its safe to say that his presence could have radically altered what turned out to be a one-point win for the Titans. That's just how it goes sometimes, and I would always go with that pick the way the stats presented themselves prior to the game. The game that followed, however, left me kicking myself for a starkly different reason.
While looking over the body of work from the both the Falcons and Rams last week I came across and wrote about a somewhat troubling pattern from the Rams' home games. The Rams only won half their home games during the 2017 regular season, and in home games they lost, they tended to turn the ball over early and often. The turnovers forced the Rams to put the ball into Jared Goff's hands far more than would be conducive to success. Don't get me wrong; Goff had a nice season. He, however, depended tremendously on his team's ability to run the football in order to open things up for his passing attack through the air. I also discovered just how poorly ranked the Rams defense finished the season despite my preconceived notion that they were relatively stout in that department.
I contemplated predicting a road upset for the Falcons because of a weak Rams defense and a high Rams home turnover rate, but I ignored my gut and picked the team favored to win...and man did I regret it. As a rule, one should not bank one a home team with a poor defense and bad home record--when I say it out loud, it sounds like a no-brainer. The Falcons, however, are not facing a team with a poor defense and poor home record this week. They're facing quite the opposite.
The Philadelphia Eagles rank third in the NFL in points scored, forth in the league in points allowed, and continued to win football games even after losing their starting quarterback due to the presence of a backup who also happens to be their former starter. Nick Foles most certainly isn't Carson Wentz, but he did put up a season as a starter in the not-too-distant past for the Eagles wherein he threw for 27 touchdowns and only three interceptions. The Eagles' defensive stats should remain mostly relevant for the prediction of this game, but we must collect offensive stats only from games that featured Nick Foles. Fortunately for us, the Falcons and Eagles have faced common opponents this season, and that should help to a reasonable degree.
Carson Wentz' last game was, in fact, against the Rams. He came out of that game with a torn ACL, and I thought at the time that the Rams would surely pull ahead. Foles stepped right in and the Eagles didn't miss a beat. The Eagles defense did, nevertheless, allow the Rams to score a whopping 35 points considering how the Falcons were able to limit the Rams last weekend. The two games Nick Foles started following their game against the Rams were a close win over the lowly Giants and a narrow win over a struggling Raiders team. It is these narrow wins over poor opponents that almost certainly drives the Eagles' status as home underdogs today.
The more I look at the three games Nick Foles played in, the more I wonder if much of the Eagles' success was predicated on Carson Wentz's ability to keep them off the field with his own offensive success. Beating teams by narrow margins was fairly common for this Eagles team both before and after Wentz's injury. Prior to tearing his ACL, Carson Wentz led his team to a 27-24 home win over the Giants, a 26-24 win over the Chargers, a 28-23 win over the Panthers, and a slightly more convincinv 34-24 win over the Redskins. There were also some resounding wins such as the 34-7 win over the Cardinals, the 33-10 win over the 49ers, the 51-23 win over the Broncos, the 37-9 win over the Cowboys, and a 31-3 win over the Bears, but only one of those teams finished the season with a winning record.
What then can we make of the Eagles success this season? They beat up on bad teams and barely squeaked by good teams with Carson Wentz leading the charge, but then they put up a less-than-convincing home performance against a Raiders team with an atrocious home record and no hope for the playoffs. Nick Foles threw for 163 yards with one touchdown and one interception against a Raiders pass defense that ranked 26th in the league. He had a nice performance against the Giants the week earlier with 237 passing yards an 4 touchdowns, but the Giants were ranked 31st in the league in pass defense, and 27th against the run. Oakland, instead, was ranked 12th against the run, and the Raiders defense was able to hold Jay Ajayi to only 52 yards, thus, forcing Nick Foles to beat them through the air. Atlanta's rush defense is is even higher ranked at 9th, and they were able to limit a rather formidable Rams rushing attack last week. Philadelphia produced the top rated run defense in the league during the regular season, but their pass defense ranks at a mediocre 17th. Atlanta also features a stronger pass 12th ranked pass defense that showed last week that it was ready to play at a ferociously physical level.
I began writing assuming I would examine the statistics to find that the Falcons would struggle against a strong Eagles defense with a competent offense led by one of the better backups in the league. The numbers simply don't reflect those ideas. The Falcons have a dramatically better quarterback, a superior set of receivers, a better running back, and a stronger defense overall. The Eagles defense has been strong in certain areas, but much of their stats were padded in dominant wins over lackluster teams while Carson Wentz was still starting quarterback. Nick Foles might surprise us all today, but he doesn't have the level of mobility, athleticism, and accuracy to keep drives alive the way Wentz did so often this season. If the Eagles couldn't dominate the Raiders at home, it appears highly unlikely they'll be able to beat out an experienced, talented Falcons team tonight.
PREDICTION: FALCONS 28-23
I would hate to disrespect an NFL playoff game with brief analysis prior to a prediction, but there's almost nothing I can see from the Titans that gives me the impression that they can go into New England and beat the Patriots this season. If Travis Kelce doesn't leave the game last week with a massive concussion, there's little chance they're able to edge the Chiefs by a single point. The Patriots are masters of the post-season, and there has been exactly one team that has been able to go toe to toe with them in Foxborough in recent years, and that team didn't even make the playoffs this season.
Tom Brady has looked human at times this season, but he also led the league in passing. The Patriots also made an incredibly shrewd move adding veteran former Steeler James Harrison to boost their pass rush going into the post-season. To add to it, unlike last season, the Super Bowl Champion Patriots have a healthy Rob Gronkowski going into the playoffs, and they actually have a legitimate deep threat in Brandin Cooks. To add to it, the Patriots are well-rested, impossibly well-coached, and they break down film of their opponents better than virtually anyone else in the league. The Titans are a flawed team that got into the playoffs by the skin of their teeth, and they edged another flawed team that probably didn't truly deserve to be in the playoffs either.
This won't necessarily be a colossal blowout, but the Titans feature the 25th ranked pass defense in the league, and that's enough to allow Brady and company to pull away in 4th quarter or mount a spectacular late-game comeback. The Patriots defensive statistics aren't great on the season, but James Harrison proved that his presence changes that dramatically as he had two sacks, 5 tackles, and a forced fumble in his first game playing for Bill Belichick. Let's hope for a good game, but I simply can't see a reasonable scenario where a poor Titans pass defense is able to limit the Patriots to a point where a mediocre Titans offense could outscore Brady in New England...in the playoffs.
PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 33-24
STAY TURNED FOR PREDICTIONS FOR TOMORROW'S GAMES! AND STAY TUNED FOR INSTALLMENTS OF THE RAVENS DRAFT WISHLIST LEADING UP TO AND FOLLOWING THE NFL COMBINE NEXT MONTH!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS...GO GET CALVIN RIDLEY!
No comments:
Post a Comment