Tonight's showdown between the Falcons and Rams should be quite a good deal more interesting than the Titans-Chiefs game as it would appear both NFC teams have a much greater shot to win multiple playoff games than their AFC counterparts this evening. To get a good idea of a probable outcome, we'll have to first take a look at how the Rams have fared at home, and how the Falcons have performed on the road.
The Falcons have scored a modest average of 21.625 points in road games this season, and they haven't beaten a single playoff team on the road. Atlanta has also allowed an average of 22.625 points on the road, and that mean a 1 point average margin of defeat. This is not entirely surprising given the fact that dome teams don't typically fare well in road environments--particularly those outdoors. The Falcons face a particularly daunting test flying across country to face the Rams in Los Angeles. Coming off of a 4-win campaign in 2016, the Rams might just be the surprise team of the league this season. The Rams scored an average of 27 points per game at home and allowed an average of 19.5 points per game. The Rams certainly haven't been invincible in L.A. this year, however, as they lost at home to the Redskins, Seahawks, Eagles, and 49ers--that means they went 4-4 at home.
So what happened in these four home losses to a Rams team that looked rather dominant for most of the season? Against the Redskins, the Rams turned the ball over twice, and didn't force any turnovers themselves. They also lost the time of possession battle significantly as the Redskins held Todd Gurley under 100 yards on the ground. The Seahawks, while they still had a relatively healthy defense, were able to force the Rams to commit 5 turnovers, and they limited Todd Gurley to a mere 43 yards on the ground. The Eagles allowed Todd Gurley to rush for 96 yards and 2 touchdowns, but they still forced the Rams to commit 2 turnovers. The Rams also allowed the Eagles to amass 455 offensive yards and convert a whopping 29 first downs despite the loss of Carson Wentz. Now the 49ers did beat the Rams to finish the season, but the Rams rested their starters that day. I would have been curious to see whether or not the 49ers could have beaten a full staffed Rams team considering how hot San Francisco became once they traded for Jimmy Garoppolo late in the season. Statistics accumulated in that game, however, are totally meaningless.
The Rams pass defense ranks in at a respectable 13th in the NFL, but their run defense leaves something to be desired at 28th. Atlanta, by contrast, ranks 9th in the NFL stopping the run and 12th against the pass. The only major issue is that the Falcons defense drops off a cliff on the road against playoff teams. Matt Ryan is a talented quarterback, and he has some talented weapons in Julio Jones, Muhammad Sanu and Davonta Freeman, but they just can't seem to produce against quality teams on the road. The Falcons lost to the Patriots in New England 23-7, the Panthers in Charlotte 20-17, and the Saints in New Orleans 23-13. They did beat the Seahawks in Seattle 34-31, but the Seahawks had lost nearly all of their defensive stars by that point. It appears as though much of the Falcons' statistics this season were padded by dominant homefield performances and big wins over teams that were mediocre at best.
The Rams' uneven home record would suggest this game could be quite interesting, especially if Jared Goeff and company turn the ball over more than once. Aaron Donald is a dominant defensive player, but the Rams don't have enough in the way to limit the Falcons the way the Patriots, Saints, and Panthers did in their respective home fields. The Falcons were able to put on a fireworks display against a weakened Seahawks defense, and I believe they'll put up at least decent production against a Rams defense that has allowed some games to get away from them this season. The Rams, however, coming off of a virtual bye week and not having to travel, will likely be able to put up enough points to move on to the next round. Atlanta's road point differential is simply too poor to imagine them pulling off an outdoor road upset 3000 miles away from home against a quality, rested team. This should be a good one though.
PREDICTION: RAMS 30-24
STAY TUNED FOR SUNDAY'S ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIOS!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
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