There are few moments I can recall in my life as a sports fan as heartbreaking as watching the Ravens blow a 4th quarter lead against a battered, untalented Bengals team at home to close out their season and dash hopes of a playoff run. The physical agony of freezing in that stadium would have been alleviated by the overwhelming joy of victory, but it was not to be in 2017. I would prefer not to dwell to heavily on play-calling, Flacco, wide receivers, Dean Pees, or Marty Morhninweg. I, instead, feel a major factor was totally overlooked as fans and analysts broke down the loss in disappointment and disgust: the play of the defensive line.
We have given the Ravens credit for being a physical, gritty, run-stuffing team with nasty D-linemen for so long that many fail to acknowledge that the Ravens defensive line has been woefully inadequate most of this season. Brandon Williams has, for most of his career, been a dominant two-gapping run defender, and Michael Pierce and Willie Henry have flashed the same skill set at times. What is missing, however, is a major consistent pass-rushing presence from any of the defensive linemen in the rotation. As Haloti Ngata became older and ultimately departed for Detroit, the Ravens replaced him with Brandon Williams for the first two downs and Timmy Jernigan as a 3rd down tackle. Jernigan was up and down for the Ravens, and he was traded to the Eagles last year anyway, but Haloti Ngata as a complete defensive lineman was never replaced.
Because the Ravens operate out of a base 3-4 defensive front, their interior D linemen frequently multiple blockers. As a result, one has to be particularly ferocious to fight through a double team and disrupt the pocket to force a quarterback into bad decisions and rushed throws. I recall the Texans battling back furiously in 2010 to send a game into overtime against the Ravens. At that point, I thought Baltimore would surely lose as momentum had totally shifted Houston's way, but Haloti Ngata bulldozed his way right through the Texan's offensive line forcing a poor pass from Matt Schaub that way promptly picked off and taken back for a touchdown by cornerback Josh Wilson to end the game. No such heroics could be seen last weekend as Andy Dalton calmly stood clean in his pocket and delivered the pass that broke the hearts of Ravens fans.
Brent Urban was a big reason early in the Ravens' season that the defense looked so incredibly dominant. His brief career has unfortunately been marred by a host of injuries, but while healthy early this, Urban did everything the Ravens could want from a defensive end: he had the length to bat down passes at the line of scrimmage, he created pressure in passing situations well, and he effectively defended against the run. Urban was, for a brief shining moment, a poor man's J.J. Watt. Neither of the other defensive ends drafted over the past two years, Bronson Kaufusi and Chris Wormley, proved developed or talented enough to see much action--let alone make a game-changing impact. Without a serious pass rush from the Ravens defensive linemen, the Ravens will forever be forced to bring extra linebackers, corners, and safeties to create pressure in situations which you'd like to have many of those players available for pass coverage.
There's no question that the Ravens personnel department must make receiving weapons a major focus this off-season, but serious pass rushing defensive linemen MUST be acquired or developed if this team is ever going to be able to clamp down on opposing teams when a 4th quarter stop is necessary to win a game. Ok, it's time to stop dwelling on team whose season is over. Let's take a look at this Saturday's first playoff analysis and prediction!
SATURDAY NFL PICKS AND ANALYIS
TITANS AT CHIEFS
There was a point this season where the Chiefs' playoff hopes appeared to be doomed. After winning their first 5 games, Kansas City went on a lengthy skid in which it appeared they lost everything that made them great over their great start to 2017. The Chiefs, in fact, lost 6 of 7 games in the middle of the season to drop to 6-7 going into what appeared to be a tough stretch with matchups against all of their divisional rivals. Andy Reid proved once again that he is an excellent coach by leading his team to a 4-0 finish to their season with wins over every other team in the AFC West to clinch the division. The Chiefs even sat their starters in Week 17, but they still beat a totally dysfunctional Broncos squad to finish with a 10-6 record. Because the Chiefs went through three distinct phases of their season, it's important that we disregard data collected during the first 5 game stretch or the subsequent 1-6 stretch as neither appears representative of the current state of the team. Kansas City's starters are, at this point, quite well rested, and that should bode well for them going up against a Tennessee Titans team that is 3-5 on the road this season.
It's convenient that the last 3 games the Chiefs' starters played were at home in Kansas City as that makes the statistics entirely relevant for today's game. Once the Chiefs righted their ship, they won their last three home games against the Raiders, Chargers, and Dolphins. During those three games, the Chiefs scored an average of 28.33 points while allowing an average of just 13.667 points per game for an average margin of victory of 14.663. It wasn't particularly shocking that the Chiefs soundly defeated the Raider or Dolphins as neither team proved particularly complete for most of this season with woeful inadequacies in either defense or offense. Beating the Chargers, however, showed us that the Chiefs truly had begun to regain some clout. Philip Rivers and his crew had come on in the second half of the season to make a late push for the playoffs that ultimately fell just short specifically because of their loss to Kansas City, but they had on of the top defenses in the NFL and an offense that had put up some absolutely spectacular performances led by Rivers himself. Limiting a Chargers offense that had scored 54 points on the Bills, 28 points on the Cowboys, and 30 points on the Redskins to only 13 points was quite a feat. At the time I thought it best not to glean too much from the rout as divisional matchups are often unpredictable, now it appears as though it was a part of an upward trend for Andy Reid and his athletes.
The Titans, meanwhile, lost three of their final four games on the season, edged a Jaguars team that appeared suddenly vulnerable late in the season to barely squeak into the playoffs (in place of the Ravens...sigh). Kudos to the Titans for finding a way to get into the post-season, but unlike the Chiefs, the Titans do not appear to be trending upwards. Four of the Titans' last six games were played on the road, and three of those four games were losses. During those last 4 road games, the Titans scored an average of 16.75 points per game while allowing an average of 23.35 points per game for an average margin of defeat of 6.5 points. The Titans defense finished the season with a solid 13th ranking in yards allowed, but that ranking dropped to 17th in points allowed per game. More importantly, the Titans defense on the road was significantly worse than in home games. The Titans held opposing teams to an average of 17.25 points per game at home, but that number rose to 23.875 points per game on the road. Even more worrisome is how sharply the Titans' offense fell off in road trips. At home over the course of the season, Tennessee scored an average of 24.75 points per game, but on the road they only scored 17.5 points per game. It wasn't simply a late season slump; the Titans struggled to produce points and stop opponents on the road all season.
The Titans were far from the worst team in the league this season, but they lack elite playmakers. They don't possess a single 1000 yard rusher or receivers, and their starting running back has been ruled out for the game. The Chiefs, on the other hands, have some rather electrifying weapons in Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt, and their passing attack achieved a 7th place ranking on the regular season. It's difficult to imagine the Titans to beat the Chiefs in Kansas City considering just how little production they've been able to muster on the road all year and how well the Chiefs have played on both sides of the ball at home as of late. Kansas City may not go on much of a playoff run this post-season, but statistics would suggest they'll win tonight.
PREDICTION: CHIEFS 28-19
ENJOY THE GAME, AND STAY TUNED FOR FALCONS-RAMS ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!! (GO GET SOME BETTER RECEIVERS)
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