For all the criticism the Ravens coaching staff has received over the past 5 seasons following Super Bowl glory, it appears as though few appreciate what John Harbaugh and his crew have managed to accomplish down the stretch of what appeared to be an absolutely snake-bitten season from the beginning. Losing both starting offensive guards, a starting slot corner, a starting running back, a starting tight end, and having a starting quarterback with a back injury is not exactly how the Ravens coaching staff envisioned the beginning of the 2017 season. With a 4-5 record going into the bye week, it was difficult for many to imagine the Ravens possibly earning a playoff berth. Now there is one game standing between Baltimore post-season excitement. Oh, and Joe Flacco? Yeah he's back to his old late season form--imagine that.
Joe Flacco's consistently efficient recent production has demonstrated just how much of a role injury, not his own apathy, played in the rough first half of the 2017. It also demonstrates how tough Flacco is for playing though a season of quarterback hits despite what must've been a rather painful back issue. Thankfully, every self-purported expert that called into sports talk radio or commented online with some statement to the effect of "you know a back issue never goes away" was unaware that the back is a large, complex part of the body with a host of different possible injuries. Some back issues can stay with someone for years if not forever to some degree, but Flacco's injury could have been simply a muscular strain that took a few months to fully heal. Whatever his injury might have been, Joe Flacco appears to have no observable lingering symptoms as he has gone from throwing 8 touchdowns and 11 interceptions before the bye week to throwing 8 touchdowns and 2 interceptions FOLLOWING the bye week.
Flacco's improved play has been a major factor in the Ravens' late-season surge, but a ton of credit needs to be given to an offensive line with new starters at 4 out of 5 positions this season, and a pair of running backs who were either cast away or largely forgotten before the season began. The one-two punch of Alex Collins and Buck Allen has made many fans forget that last season featured two totally different backs in Kenneth Dixon and Terrence West. Buck Allen, despite proving himself an impressive starter in 2015 after Justin Forsett broke his arm, found himself the off man out in 2016 behind Dixon and West. A couple of injuries later, Buck has made it back on the field, and he's been good enough to prompt the Ravens to keep Terrence West on the bench for many weeks now. Even more surprising than Buck Allen has been the explosive play of the Ravens' starting running back, Alex Collins. Collins was cut by the Seahawks during the preseason, and I'm sure nearly every football fan in Seattle is wondering how on earth their beloved team could have made such a blunderous mistake. Collins has amassed 895 rushing yards on only 192 carries with 5 touchdowns. This shifty, explosive tailback could finish with close to or just over 1000 rushing yards in the regular season with one more big day on the ground.
Sunday could, in fact, be a big day for Alex Collins. The Cincinnati Bengals rank 31st in the league in run defense with an average of 128.5 rushing yards allowed per game. In the first week of the season, the Ravens controlled the clock in Cincinnati by putting together time consuming, methodical drives that included little or no passes thrown. It didn't matter that the Bengals knew the Ravens planned to run the football--they simply couldn't stop it. Last week the Bengals put on a heroic display at home against a Lions team with an explosive pass offense but a rushing attack that ranks dead last in the league with an average of only 78 yards per game on the ground. It should, therefore, come as no surprise that the Bengals were able to find a way to force mistakes from a team with a one-dimensional offense. It also should not come as a shock that Cincy was able to put up 26 points on a Lions defense that ranks 24th in the league in yards allowed as well as 25th in the league in points allowed per game. Unfortunately for the Bengals, the Baltimore Ravens are not the Detroit Lions.
Last Saturday's uncomfortably close game against the Colts was likely the result of rather sloppy weather conditions and not a reflection of the Ravens current strength as a team. The Colts actually played a handful of other playoff contending teams closely this season including losses by less than a touchdown to the Steelers, Titans, and Bills. The Colts also only lost to the Bengals in Cincinnati by a single point two months ago. There was a time this season where it appeared as though the Bengals might have had a fighting chance to make a late push for the playoffs. That chance came crashing down the Steelers handed the Bengals a crushing defeat that took both a physical as well as an emotional toll on the team. The centerpiece of the Bengals defense, Vontaze Burfict, was knocked out of the game by a somewhat overenthusiastic JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Cincinnati suddenly couldn't stop the run to save its season. After losing 23-20 to the Steelers, the Bengals allowed Jordan Howard of the Bears to rush for 147 yards and two touchdowns in a 33-7 beat-down.
The Bengals didn't fare any better the following week as they were absolutely suffocated by the Vikings defense in a 34-7 rout to eliminate Cincinnati from the slightest hope of playoff contention. Now Cincy has to go on the road and face a Ravens team hell-bent on doing nothing more right now than erasing all doubts with a regular season finale win at home to send themselves into the playoffs. Not only did the Ravens blank the Bengals in Cincinnati earlier this season, but they've gotten better by leaps and bounds since that point. How much better are the Ravens? Well they've gone from scoring 18.56 points per game and allowing 21.14 points per game over their first 7 games to scoring 29.75 points per game and allowing 15.5 points per game over the last 8 games of the season. That means that the Ravens went from outscored by opponents by almost 2.5 points per game to outscoring opponents over 14 points per game. If that doesn't demonstrate a massive improvement from the first to second half of the season, then I don't know what would.
John Harbaugh may not be a schematic guru, and his clock management has been bewilderingly poor on countless occasions over the past decade, but his ability to keep a group motivated and driven is exceeded by no one in this league. Harbaugh has helped foster an environment where players can be themselves, and they enjoy their time in Baltimore so much that they often gush to free agent friends of theirs to come to Charm City to see exactly what it means to be a Raven. No one is going to accuse Harbaugh of being a tactical genius like Bill Belichick, and his win-loss record as a coach since winning a Super Bowl has been resoundingly mediocre. Harbaugh has, nevertheless, urged his men onward with a clear goal in their sights. The Ravens locker room could have been consumed with feelings of hopelessness after going 4-5 before the bye week, but Harbaugh challenged his players to ask themselves "why not us?" in reference to the idea that they could get hot and win 6 of their last 7 games to get to the benchmark 10-6 record that typically wins teams at least a wildcard berth in the AFC.
Now the Ravens stand one game away from achieving their regular season goal, and nothing, not the cold, and DEFINITELY not the Bengals, will stop them. Without Jimmy Smith on the field, it's difficult to predict another shutout, but the Ravens feast on teams with weak run defenses, and there's just about no one worse against the run in the NFL than the Cincinnati Bengals. Now let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 17 PICKS
PACKERS AT LIONS- Few things are more depressing than a game that features two teams eliminated from playoff contention. This game simply doesn't matter, but I expect the Lions to take out their frustrations from last week against the Rodgersless Packers. LIONS 31-23
TEXANS AT COLTS- The good news for Texans fans is that their starting quarterback next season will be a beast. The bad news is that it's not next season yet. The Texans won't be able to do nearly enough with their 3rd string quarterback, so I'm giving a slight edge to the home team in Chuck Pagano's farewell to Indianapolis. COLTS 20-17
BEARS AT VIKINGS- The Vikings can't rest their starters this week because their loss to the Panthers earlier this season means that the 11-4 Panthers could possibly take their 2-seed spot if Minnesota doesn't win their final game. The Vikings starters will get rest, but it will come next week instead of this week. VIKINGS 27-14
JETS AT PATRIOTS- James Harrison isn't the player he was 10 years ago, but he'll give at least somewhat of a defensive boost to a Patriots team desperately in need of a strong presence off the edge. The Jets have no reason to even try to win this game as another win only likely hurts their draft order. PATRIOTS 33-20
REDSKINS AT GIANTS- The last time these teams met was a miserably boring matchup on Thanksgiving. This game might be just as bad, and the overall outcome shouldn't change either. REDSKINS 24-21
COWBOYS AT EAGLES- Tough to imagine the Eagles having too much to play for after they already clinched the first seed in the playoffs. I assume they'll bench their starters and kick the tires on their previously injured draft pick, Sidney Jones. If Jones shows out against the Cowboys, he could ultimately be a major factor in the Eagles' quest to get back to the Super Bowl for the first time since Donovan McNabb led them. The Cowboys' playoff hopes came crashing down last week with their loss to the Seahawks, but I have a hard time believing Jerry Jones won't want to see his guys end on a high note--even if it is against mostly backups. COWBOYS 21-13
BROWNS AT STEELERS- The Steelers don't believe the Jets have any real chance to beat the Patriots, so Mike Tomlin has elected to sit his starters against the winless Browns to both minimize the chance to further injuries and give Big Ben and company some invaluable rest. If the Steelers face the Patriots in the post-season, it will almost certainly be in Foxborough, but at least they'll be relatively well rested when they head up there. I'm not positive about how many starting Steelers will sit this game out. Landry Jones could still win this game, but a healthy Steelers team only barely edged the Browns earlier this season. The Browns have already clinched the first round pick in the draft, so they should be motivated to win and end their season on SOME kind of high note. BROWNS 24-20
PANTHERS AT FALCONS- These two teams played one another in an extremely close game earlier this season with the Panthers coming out on top 20-17. The Falcons desperately need to win to clinch the final wildcard spot, but they'll do so possibly without Pro Bowl center Alex Mack as he's dealing with a calf strain. The Panthers would also like nothing more than to keep a divisional rival out of the post-season while also potentially leapfrogging the Rams or Saints or both in the event that either or both teams loses this week. The Rams are reportedly set to rest their starters against San Francisco, and that would mean the Panthers could get to at least the 4th seed if they pounce on the Falcons. Carolina has been on a scoring tear as of late, and their defensive line should give Matt Ryan major problems with Alex Mack out or playing injured. PANTHERS 23-20
CHIEFS AT BRONCOS- The Chiefs have clinched their division and will sit their starters this week. This will give Brock Osweiler another chance at an impassioned speech for his teammates to ignore, but the Broncos will want to take any win they can get at this point. BRONCOS 24-10
JAGUARS AT TITANS- The Jaguars don't want to drop two games in a row going into the playoffs, and they'd prefer not to let a divisional rival squeak in...especially not a divisional rival that beat them 37-16 earlier this season. Allen Hurns returns this week to help provide and offensive boost while Marquise Lee is out. The Titans have lost three straight close games coming into this matchup, and its difficult to imagine that a rather banged up Titans team will be able to move the ball nearly as well at this point in the season. JAGUARS 28-24
49ERS AT RAMS- Rams are resting their starters. 49ERS 38-17
BILLS AT DOLPHINS- The Bills must win to go to the playoffs, and they just beat the Dolphins two weeks ago. Something tells me this game will be quite a bit closer though. BILLS 24-21
RAIDERS AT CHARGERS- The Raiders have absolutely nothing to play for, and the Chargers need to win to have an outside chance to get into the playoffs with some help from other teams. CHARGERS 34-14
CARDINALS AT SEAHAWKS- The 12th man will be thumping louder than at any time this season. Russell Wilson will do whatever it takes to win this game. SEAHAWKS 31-21
SAINTS AT BUCCANEERS- The Saints will be all business. They need a win to ensure a division title. The Bucs simply need to hit the restart button and try again next season. SAINTS 35-23
BENGALS AT RAVENS- Several years of watching A.J. Green make big plays on the Ravens has left a lot of fans in Baltimore always terrified that Green will continue to do so. What many of them fail to realize is exactly how good Marvin Jones and Mohammed Sanu were to take pressure off Green. When those players left before the 2016 season along with offensive coordinator Hue Jackson, the Bengals offense was never the same. A.J. Green is still a great wide receiver, but he doesn't have any help. Tyler Eifert is done for the season, John Ross is done and he barely ever even got started, and Joe Mixon hasn't been nearly as good as one might have expected. The Ravens will dial up a ferocious pass rush against Red Rocket, and Giovanni Bernard won't be enough to save a Bengals offense that has scored 17.12 points per game over their last 8 games. During that 8 game stretch, the Bengals defense has allowed an average of 23.375 points per game, and that means that Cincinnati is losing by about a touchdown per game. The Ravens won't hold the Bengals scoreless, but they'll dominate the time of possession with a strong presence on the ground, and they'll hold the Bengals to field goals at critical moments. RAVENS 27-16
I COULD BE GIVING THE BENGALS TOO MUCH CREDIT, BUT IT'S HARD TO IMAGINE BALTIMORE TOTALLY SHUTTING THE BENGALS DOWN AGAIN. A WIN IS ALL WE CAN ASK FOR ON A FRIGID NEW YEAR'S EVE.
AS ALWAYS AND ESPECIALLY NOW
GO RAVENS!!!
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