No team should ever be overlooked on any given day in the world of NFL football. No one should overlook a team seemingly decimated by injuries to key players, and no one should ever overlook a team with a poor record. When all is said and done, they're all still professionals, and a few mistakes made by the favored team can suddenly lead to a baffling upset. With that said, there is no good reason for the Baltimore Ravens to lose to THIS Colts team this weekend. That certainly doesn't mean it couldn't happen, but it shouldn't happen.
One thing many fans may not have noticed is the rather imposing lineup of opponents with top ranked defenses that the Ravens have faced over the course of this season. Many have focused on the absence of elite opposing quarterbacks and suggested the Ravens have had an easy schedule because of it. There is definitely merit to that argument as injuries meant that Baltimore dodged having to face Derek Carr, Deshaun Watson, and Aaron Rodgers, but one thing the Ravens weren't able to dodge was facing the fearsome 2nd ranked Vikings defense on the road, the 3rd ranked Jaguars defense on the road, the 4th ranked Steelers defense twice, and the 8th ranked Bears defense. It's no wonder that the Ravens offense struggled early on as half of their opponents in the first half of the season were ranked in the top 10 in defense. Combine that with major injuries to the offensive line as well as Joe Flacco's back and you've got yourself a unit that unsurprisingly struggled to put points on the board.
The Indianapolis Colts do not have a top 10 defense--they don't have a top 20 defense either. They don't have a top 25 defense. The Colts rank 30th in the NFL in yards allowed per game, and they rank 31st in points allowed per game. To make matters worse for Chuck Pagano's crew, the Ravens' once-stagnant offense is now one of the most productive in the league in points scored during the second half of the season. Even on the road against the Steelers 4th ranked defense, Joe Flacco and Alex Collins led a spectacular series of drives to amass a total of 38 points which would have felt so much more triumphant if the Ravens defense hadn't allowed Antonio Brown to catch for over 200 yards.
Beyond a poor defensive ranking, the Colts will likely play unmotivated, uninspired football without many starting pieces. This game would be more useful for Indy as an evaluation/experience game for many younger players that haven't seen much time yet thus far this season rather than a serious effort to win a football game. The Colts, in fact, would suffer as a franchise by winning any games from here on out as it would affect their spot in the 2018 NFL Draft. As it stands, the 3-win are behind only the zero-win Browns and the 2-win Giants in the draft order, but winning a 4th game could put them potentially even with the Texans, Bears, Buccaneers, and 49ers who all have 4 wins on the season. Suffice it to say that this won't be an organization hell-bent on achieving a major upset today.
There is a chance that the Bengals could have more motivation to play spoiler and beat the Ravens next week, but with their available player personnel such an upset appears unlikely. The Bengals, in fact, have put so many key players on injured reserve at this point that they've been outscored 67-14 over the last two weeks. To make matters worse, the Bengals head coach, Marvin Lewis, is reportedly leaving to pursue other coaching endeavors after the season ends, and news of his upcoming departure has been tough on his players to say the least. It's difficult to rally a group to put their bodies on the line week in and week out once the players have found out that you've essentially already moved on from them mentally. Besides, even when the Bengals were mostly healthy in Week 1, the Ravens still held them scoreless in Cincinnati to kick off the season.
If there was ever a time to be zeroed in and focused, it would be over the two weeks. The Ravens have looked far from perfect this season, but they've won 5 of their last 7 games, and they appear to be hitting their stride just in time for the playoffs. Now it's just a matter of handling business and GETTING to the playoffs. The Ravens weren't fortunate enough to have circumstances where they could clinch a playoff berth with a win this week, but they appear to have an excellent shot at finishing the regular season with the 5th seen in the AFC playoff bracket. To attain this spot, the Ravens will absolutely need to win their final two games, and they will need the Bills to lose in Foxborough this week as well as the Titans to simply lose one of their final two games to either the Rams or the Jaguars. The likelihood of these things happening is high enough that Baltimore finishing with the 5th seed has been named by ESPN as the most probable playoff seeding for them.
If the Ravens finish with the 5th seed in the playoffs, they stand to face the Chiefs in Kansas City in the wildcard round, and that appears to be a far more favorable matchup for Baltimore than having to go into Jacksonville to face a Jaguars team that dominated the Ravens in London earlier this season. I am certainly getting ahead of myself here, but let's just say that the Ravens beat the Chiefs and the 6th seed loses to the Jaguars. That would presumably mean that the Ravens would then go to face the Steelers again in Pittsburgh while the Jaguars head to Foxborough to face the Patriots. The Steelers did edge the Ravens in their last meeting, but Pittsburgh has since lost its top weapon as Antonio Brown partially tore his calf muscle in the loss to the Patriots last week. The Steelers organization is optimistic that Brown will be back for the playoffs, but it's difficult to imagine he'll be back to full speed if he does end up playing. Brown's injury status as well as recently improved offensive production from the Ravens offense makes me reasonably optimistic that Joe and the boys could head into Pittsburgh and find a way to topple Big Ben and company for the first time this season--but again, I'm getting way ahead of myself right now.
It has already begun to rain in the Baltimore on the morning of this home gameday, and there are more rain showers in the forecast for the area at the time of kickoff. This could make for a sloppy, turnover-laden game; let's just hope that the turnovers favor the birds. I have enough faith in the Ravens rushing attack to trust that Alex Collins and Buck Allen will given the Ravens enough of a presence on the ground today that Joe Flacco won't be forced to air it out in sloppy conditions. If Baltimore goes up big by halftime, it might be a good idea to give Breshad Perriman some targets in the second half to see if Joe can re-establish the connection they had last season. As bad as Breshad has looked in 2017, one has to remember that every Ravens receiver looked quite bad for most of the season up until after the bye week. Since the Ravens have opened their playbook back up because of Flacco's return to health, the next two weeks might help get Perriman's confidence back up while Jeremy Maclin sits out with a knee injury. Remember that Perriman averaged over 15 yards per catch last year and made some absolutely spectacular plays. There's no reason to believe he can't contribute going forward now that Flacco is healthy.
The second game this evening is similar to the first in that it features one playoff contender versus a team that has been eliminated from the post-season race. Divisional rivalries are often quite fierce, but the fact that the Packers put Aaron Rodgers on injured reserve before this game means they're essentially conceding defeat. Brett Hundley isn't exactly useless, but if the Packers had any real motivation to win this game, they would've put one of the NFL's greatest quarterbacks on the field to face a hated foe. The Vikings have clinched the NFC North division, but they must continue to win in order to maintain their 2-seed or potentially supplant the Eagles as the 1-seed in the NFC. It is for this reason that Minnesota will be just as motivated as ever to put away a hopeless Packers team.
Stay tuned as I will post predictions for tomorrow and Monday later tonight. For now, let's take a look at today's picks!
THE PICKS
VIKINGS AT PACKERS- The Vikings have won 9 of their last 10 games, and despite recent injuries, their defense is still suffocating enough to make this a very unmerry Christmas for Packers fans. Case Keenum has played well enough to justify being the starter for the Vikings for the foreseeable future, and the Packers don't have enough in the way of defense to stop a fairly strong, balanced Vikings offense. VIKINGS 28-17
COLTS AT RAVENS- Donte Moncrief, Rashaan Melvin, Denzelle Good, Jason Vander Laan, and Brandon Williams are all ruled out for the Colts. Indy hasn't scored more than 17 points in a game in the last 5 weeks, and they've lost 8 of their last 9 games. The Colts rank 29th against the run and 30th against the pass. The Ravens haven't faced an opponent this defensively wounded and anemic since...well...pretty sure this is the worst defense they will have faced this season. Only Jeremy Maclin is sitting this one out, and this is a Ravens team laser-focused on dominating their opponent and getting out quickly and as healthy as possible to take care of business next week. Oh and Baltimore has averaged 36.33 points per game over the last 3 contests. RAVENS 34-0
FUN FACT: IF BALTIMORE SCORES 28+ POINTS PER GAME OVER THEIR FINAL TWO REGULAR SEASON MATCHUPS, 2017 WILL RANK AS THEIR 2ND MOST PRODUCTIVE SCORING SEASON IN TEAM HISTORY. IF THEY SCORE 33+ POINTS IN BOTH OF THEIR FINAL GAMES, THIS WILL BE THE HIGHEST SCORING TEAM IN RAVENS HISTORY! KINDA FUNNY TO IMAGINE, RIGHT?
MERRY CHRISTMAS, EVERYONE!
AND AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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