Forgive me for not posting predictions and analysis last week...I needed to decompress after an embarrassing loss to the Seahawks. It wasn't that I expected the Ravens to win--I predicted them to lose soundly, but watching them get utterly destroyed for the first (and not the last) time this season was painful. It certainly didn't help that they played sloppy football the next weekend against the Chiefs either, but it was actually imperative that the Chiefs win that game as the Ravens need to keep their #3 draft position secure. This week should be no different. The Ravens face a red-hot Steelers team that hasn't failed to score over 30 points in quite some time. I don't believe the Steelers have the defense needed to win a Super Bowl, and they won't be able to secure homefield advantage as the Bengals will still win the division, but the Steelers have the firepower to take it to just about anyone provided that Ben Roethlisberger can remain upright and healthy.
I'm sure Ravens players and coaches would feel some semblance of satisfaction if by some stroke of luck they were able to beat the Steelers, but there's simply no reason to do so. The best the Ravens can hope for is a competitive game wherein they both expose weaknesses in the Steelers game plan and still end up losing. The reality is, however, that a loss is a loss, and there are too many key Ravens on injured reserve to even keep this game within 14 points. Lest anyone forgot I shall list some of the more important integral cogs missing from this figurative machine: Joe Flacco, Terrell Suggs, Steve Smith Sr., Crocket Gillmore, Justin Forsett, Breshad Perriman, Jeremy Zuttah, Chris Canty, and Eugene Monroe. That list doesn't even include HALF of the Ravens players placed on injured reserve this season, but it contains nearly all of the Ravens biggest stars.
Far too long this season, I clung to hope that the Ravens could turn their season around. I was not alone. I, after all, looked at each of their narrow losses early in the season and thought that if only they had THIS player back healthy they might turn narrow losses into wins. There certainly was merit to that argument, and the reasoning wasn't far fetched, but there was no way I or any loyal fan could have known that nearly half the roster would be put on injured reserve. Ironically, the Ravens ability to win meaningful football games probably truly ended as soon as Terrell Suggs went down in Denver in Week 1. So much of what the Ravens do defensively depends on Suggs' leadership and his elite ability to both rush the passer and stop the run. His absence is particularly apparent now that Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are retired. I have no doubt that Suggs will return for one or two more seasons following his rehab, but the Ravens defense simply isn't the same without a player of that caliber.
Fortunately for us, the Ravens have a great draft position with which they should be able to pick a player who can become an immediate starter. I still have faith in Ozzie Newsome despite bad luck with first round picks in 2 out of the last 3 drafts. Anyone who read my draft wishlists after the Ravens won the Super Bowl knows I didn't have Matt Elam at the top of the list of safeties I believed the Ravens should pick. I, instead, wanted them to go with Jonathan Cyprien, who has done quite well thus far in his NFL career. There are many impatient Ravens fans who lambaste Ozzie for picking Breshad Perriman. These same critics have decided to label the young receiver as a bust simply because he sustained a knee injury before getting a chance to hit the field this season. Any criticism of the 2015 draft first round draft pick is likely premature as Perriman will presumably be quite healthy and also fairly experienced after having spent an entire year at Ravens facilities soaking up the playbook. The addition of Perriman will be like having an extra first round pick in the 2016 draft, and that's something for which even the most doubtful Ravens fans should be happy. Sure, it would have been nice to see Perriman get on the field late this season, but that wouldn't have meant much anyway considering that Joe Flacco tore his ACL.
Sometimes it takes one step back to take two steps forward. Going into next season with a healthy Breshad Perriman, an impact player from the top of the first round of the draft (the top of the second round too for that matter), and the return of Suggs and Flacco, the Ravens should easily be ready to return to their status as major AFC contenders. There are many who believe the Ravens' first priority should be finding receiving talent early in the draft--I am not one of those people. Far more important to the success of next season is the acquisition of a defensive player who can make an immediate impact in 2016. There are two defensive players I believe the Ravens could take the first round who could bring immediate significant improvement to a unit that has allowed an embarrassing 25 points per game this season. The first is, of course, Ohio State defensive end, Joe Bosa. Bosa is essentially a younger J.J. Watt. He stands at 6'6" and nearly 280 pounds, and he possesses the explosive speed and physicality to scare nearly anyone who finds himself lined up opposite this behemoth. Bosa can rip by and bullrush through offensive linemen to get to the quarterback, and he seemingly effortlessly uses his push-pull move to toss run-blockers aside and get to the ball carrier (this move can be seen at 1:56 and 2:13 in the video linked below). Bosa's highlights speak for themselves, take a look:
Joey Bosa 2015 Defensive End
A defensive end with this level of pass-rushing and run-stuffing talent would be impossible for the Ravens to pass up with the third pick of the draft. The question is whether or not Bosa will be available with the 3rd overall pick. The Titans and Browns are both slated to pick before the Ravens, and the question remains as to whether or not the Titans and Browns will view offensive tackles or quarterbacks as a higher priority than a defensive lineman. The Ravens might even view offensive tackle as a greater priority than defensive lineman considering Eugene Monroe's issues staying healthy and a lack of quality depth behind him. Kelechi Osemele has played offensive tackle well for the past couple of weeks, but he'll be a free agent after this season, and the Ravens likely won't be able to afford to pay him an offensive tackle contract with Eugene Monroe already on the books. The Ravens could, instead, draft the best offensive tackle available, and either start him at left tackle, or start him at right tackle if Eugene Monroe is healthy and doesn't get cut this summer.
In the event that the Ravens do go with the best left tackle available, it's highly likely they'll pick Notre Dame's Ronnie Stanley. Stanley is the second best tackle in the draft, and the best tackle, Laremy Tunsil, could very well be off the board as the Titans appear likely to pick him first overall. Stanley, however, has the frame, athleticism, and sheer strength to ultimately be a starting left tackle anywhere he goes. The 2015 did expose a few weaknesses in Stanley's game such as the fact that he struggles to sink his hips back down and reset after a defensive lineman has gotten under his pads and stood him up. Stanley does, nevertheless, display the ability to block defensive lineman and then get to the second level that is required to be successful in a zone blocking scheme such as that of the Ravens. His pass protecting skills are fantastic with only some minor adjustments that will be worked out with pro experience. At 6'6" and 315 muscular pounds, Ronnie Stanley possesses prototypical left tackle size. At the very least, if Eugene Monroe stays a Raven, Stanley can be placed at left guard to replace Kelechi Osemele assuming he leaves for a big contract elsewhere. I couldn't exactly find a highlight reel for the young tackle, but here's the video from his performance against Syracuse in the 2014 season:
Ronnie Stanley (Notre Dame OT) vs Syracuse 2014
I doubt Ronnie Stanley will make the same impact his first season that Joey Bosa likely would as a rookie, but that doesn't mean the value isn't still phenomenally high, and a top offensive tackle would certainly fill a serious Ravens need. Another major glaring need is in the secondary. It appears highly likely that the Ravens will shift Lardarius Webb to free safety where he has shown the ability to play quite well when asked to do so in the second half of the season. That would mean the starting safeties would be Will Hill at strong and Webb at free with the likes of Kendrick Lewis, Terrence Brooks, and Matt Elam providing depth. With Webb at safety, however, the Ravens will need a serious presence opposite Jimmy Smith at corner. I have twice posted the highlights of Florida State corner, Jalen Ramsey, on facebook. Ramsey has good size, reportedly excellent leadership abilities, and the versatility to play safety at a high level. I had planned most of this week to write about why I believe he'd be the best defensive back for the Ravens to draft. I changed my mind. Vernon Hargreaves III is simply the best cover corner in the draft and his prowess as a ballhawk is spectacular. Jalen Ramsey does have great upside and versatility, but his ability to make an immediate impact and shut down his side of the field is nowhere close to that of Hargreaves. The Florida product may not be what anyone would consider big for a corner at 5'11", but he's certainly not undersized at nearly 195 pounds. His instincts, athleticism, and technique mean he'll make an immediate impact as a Ravens starter, and his presence could totally change how teams have to gameplan for the Ravens. Check out his highlights:
Vernon Hargreaves III: Florida Gator - Career Highlights [HD]
The cool thing about the 2016 NFL draft is that the Ravens will have their choice of basically all of the elite players available. Ozzie and company have never failed to deliver when picking in the top 10, and this will literally be the highest draft pick he's ever had at his disposal. It's also possible that Ozzie will trade back between the 5th and 10th picks and STILL get a top notch player AND an additional 2nd and even possibly an extra 3rd round pick as well. If, for example, Ozzie stays pat and picks 3rd, he should go with Joey Bosa if he's on the board or Ronnie Stanley if Bosa has already been picked. If both Stanley and Bosa are off the board at 3rd (highly unlikely) then Ozzie should trade back and pick Hargreaves III. In any likely scenario, the Ravens get an impact player that fills a major need, and they're left with the 3rd pick in each round for the rest of the draft along with a handful of compensatory picks. This means the Ravens will be in prime position to pick a quality wide receiver with their second round pick. The season is essentially already over for the Ravens, but the offseason has already begun. We, as football fans, still have plenty of football to watch, and for that reason let's now take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 16 NFL PICKS
REDSKINS AT EAGLES- It's kind of hilarious to think that the Eagles at 6-8 in the final two weeks of the season actually still have a shot at winning their division. The last time these two teams played one another in D.C. it was an extremely close game. That game, however, did not feature Desean Jackson. The Eagles pass defense is one of the very worst in the league, and the Redskins will get a rare road victory to help solidify their grasp on the division. I can't see the Redskins going beyond the first week of the post-season, but they should at least make it to the playoffs. REDSKINS 27-20
PATRIOTS AT JETS- This is unquestionably the game of the week, and that's sad considering it's Steelers week here in Baltimore. The Patriots made a great late game comeback against the Jets early in the season in Foxborough, but now they head to New Jersey without Julian Edelman or Danny Amendola. The Patriots DO have Rob Gronkowski, and Brandon LaFell will likely play despite his own injury, but there's no question that the Patriots are short-staffed compared to the last time they faced the Jets. It's almost never a good idea to bet against the Patriots, and there's a good chance I'll look foolish for doing this, but the Jets have what it takes to beat the Patriots in the Meadowlands this time around, especially since Tom Brady has less weapons with which to move the football. The Patriots want homefield advantage through the playoffs, but the Jets are fighting to simply get INTO the playoffs. As it stands, Gang Green is on the outside looking in. They have to hope that either the Chiefs or Steelers lose this weekend and they MUST beat the Patriots. The Patriots already have 12 wins, and they know that if they don't win this week, at least they'll have a winnable game next week to secure a first round bye and homefield advantage. Ugh, this is tough. JETS 31-28
TEXANS AT TITANS- The Titans stand to gain absolutely nothing by winning this game, and they stand to lose their number one draft pick. The Texans need to win this to help solidify their position as division leader and ensure a playoff spot. Marcus Mariota is out for the season. J.J. Watt will have a field day. TEXANS 38-13
BROWNS AT CHIEFS- What a nice late-season gift for Kansas City. CHIEFS 42-17
COLTS AT DOLPHINS- The Colts will be fighting to hang on to hope that the Texans could lose in the next two weeks. The Dolphins have lost motivation to win and gained motivation to lose as their draft position will be better if they lose out. COLTS 23-20
49ERS AT LIONS- These are two bad teams, but the Lions are...well...LESS bad. LIONS 30-14
COWBOYS AT BILLS- Yet another meaningless game. I'll have to give this one to the home team. BILLS 21-17
BEARS AT BUCCANEERS- UGH!!! SO MUCH MEANINGLESS FOOTBALL!!! This is getting frustrating just to think about. Without Alshon Jeffrey, I can't see the Bears winning. The Buccaneers are still trying to find their rhythm and develop Jameis Winston. BUCCANEERS 23-21
PANTHERS AT FALCONS- The Panthers won't rest their starters this week, but they will next week. This should be over before halftime. PANTHERS 35-3
STEELERS AT RAVENS- This is no sort of classic Ravens-Steelers slugfest. The Ravens have nothing to gain by winning this, nor do they have the physical ability to do so barring some calamitous injury to Ben Roethlisberger. STEELERS 37-19
JAGUARS AT SAINTS- The Saints have improved since the first half of the season. I'll pick them against a mediocre team at home. SAINTS 33-21
RAMS AT SEAHAWKS- The Rams usually play the Seahawks competitively, but the Rams are bad right now and the Seahawks look like one of the top 2 teams in the NFC...and they're at home. SEAHAWKS 31-16
PACKERS AT CARDINALS- The Packers don't have enough weapons to win this game on the road. The Cardinals are in the zone right now despite the loss of Tyrann Mathieu. CARDINALS 24-21
GIANTS AT VIKINGS- If Odell Beckham Jr. had not been suspended, I would have predicted a narrow Giants win here. His appeal failed, and the Vikings will win instead. VIKINGS 27-21.
BENGALS AT BRONCOS- The Bengals aren't good enough without Red Rocket to win this game on the road, and the Broncos are playing for their post-season lives. BRONCOS 28-20
FOR THE BALTIMORE RAVENS, THIS IS MERELY THE BEGINNING OF 2016, NOT THE END OF 2015. THIS TEAM WILL REBOUND GET BACK TO WINNING NEXT SEASON.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Saturday, December 26, 2015
Sunday, December 13, 2015
WEEK 14 NFL PREDICTIONS
There have been three major types of games this year for the Ravens. The first is the narrow loss that could'a should'a would'a been a win had Steve Smith made a catch in the endzone at the end of the game, for example. The second type is the narrow win at the last second of the game that both gave fans a glimmer of hope but proved immeasurably costly because it came at the expense of the health of a key player such as Flacco, Smith Sr., or Forsett. The third and final type of game is that which was taken from the Ravens by the referees. I don't say this to whine, as fans of rival teams would almost certainly insist. I, instead, bring it up to highlight one of the worst officiated NFL seasons on record for the entire league.
Last week the Ravens lost by two points to a Miami Dolphins team that which Baltimore outplayed substantially. The major call in question came on a flawlessly clean 55 yard touchdown that would have easy made the difference in a game where the Ravens held Ryan Tannehill to just over 80 passing yards and a single offensive score. Instead, however, a referee called the receiver, Daniel Brown, for what the replay proved to be an utter fictional offensive pass interference. Not only did Daniel not push off, he actually didn't even put either of his hands on the defensive back at ALL. The defensive back, instead, put one hand on the receiver and then turned and lost his footing, thus, drawing the flag and negating what would have meant a Ravens win.
The Ravens should be on a 5 game winning streak right now, but the referees took away both the Dolphins game AND the Jaguars game--and the league even ADMITTED the Ravens legitimately should have won the Jaguars game. Instead of 6-6, the Ravens now sit 4-8 without a shot at the playoffs. Here's the thing though: the Ravens are better off having lost those two games. In order for Baltimore to have had a realistic shot at the playoffs, a host of teams needed to lose last week and would need to lose more games going forward. Well most of those teams did NOT lose last week, and appear to have serious momentum going forward. At this point, any two teams out of the Jets, Steelers, Texans, and Chiefs will take the wildcard spots for the AFC. The Ravens have fought and continue to fight valiantly despite their copious critical, season-ending injuries and mounting losses, but they're essentially (though not officially) mathematically eliminated, and the team benefits far more from a higher draft pick now that they've finally reached this point.
You may have noticed that I've changed my tune since last week. Last week I insisted that the Ravens still had a slim glimmer of hope of they could win in Miami and certain other teams could lose. Well neither of those things happened, and while I still continue to root for our beloved Ravens each week, my hope that they could find a way to squeak into the playoffs has been entirely extinguished. I still maintain that this team stands to gain a lot developmentally by giving everything it has in an attempt to win each remaining game. I don't, however, expect the Ravens to be ABLE to win more than maybe one more game this season, and it's possible and likely they won't even win THAT much. Every remaining team is a playoff contender and a red-hot one at that. The Seahawks suddenly appear to be the fiercest team in the NFC, and the Chiefs, Steelers, and Bengals all make up a trio of the most dangerous teams in the AFC at this point. The Ravens have improved their defense by leaps and bounds, and their offense has received a boost Buck Allen's rise as one of the most dynamic young running backs in the last two weeks. The quarterback position, however, has been taken down several notches with the pick-sixes from Matt Schaub in both games he has started, and now Jimmy Clausen may have to take over because of a shoulder injury Schaub sustained last week. Jimmy Clausen likely won't be an improvement over Schaub, and the Ravens will suffer a home losing streak the likes of which hasn't been seen during the John Harbaugh era.
If it's any consolation to Ravens fans, the Steelers actually may not make the playoffs either. As good as they looked last week against the Colts, the Steelers still have to face the Bengals in Cincy, the Broncos at home, and then they face the Ravens in Baltimore. Sure, I don't expect the Ravens to beat the Steelers without Joe, but it's Ravens-Steelers and that means anything can happen. Regardless, if the Steelers simply lose to the Bengals and Broncos, they'll finish 9-7 at BEST. Their head to head loss to the Chiefs means Kansas City has a tiebreaker over them, and the Texans or Jets (or both) should finish with at least 9 wins which would make the situation unclear for Ben and company. The Steelers are still good enough that they could potentially win out, but their remaining schedule is fairly daunting. We'll know much more about their status after their game against the Bengals later today.
Ok. So even I, the eternal purple optimist, now have given up hope on a Ravens playoff berth and am actually quite excited about the draft in 2016. In fact, assuming that the Ravens lose out with Jimmy Clausen running the show, the Ravens will absolutely have top 5 draft pick position. Think about that for a moment--if the Ravens lose out and the Steelers miss the playoffs with a 9-7 record, the Ravens will have a top 5 draft pick and the Steelers will not...and BOTH teams will have missed the playoffs. HA. Misery, of course, loves company, and I make no secret about my sheer joy at watching the Steelers and Patriots lose. This season simply wasn't meant to be for the Ravens, but with a great 2016 draft and a host of returning key veterans, Baltimore should be poised for a big comeback next season. Stay tuned over the next several weeks as I'm going to get an early start on draft prospect analysis. Ok, let's take a look at this week's picks.
WEEK 14 NFL PICKS
BILLS AT EAGLES- I get that the Eagles narrowly beat an ailing Patriots team last week, but I don't believe that means their problems are solved. Chip Kelly may have his players amped up because they have as good a shot as any other NFC East team of winning the division at this point, but Buffalo is good enough to make life hard for phans in Philly. BILLS 31-27
49ERS AT BROWNS- The 49ers are still a bad team, but they've improved. They improved, however, a little too late, and a win this week in Cleveland will be meaningless. Maybe it'll keep fans in San Fran hopeful for the future though. I know how they feel. 49ERS 21-17
LIONS AT RAMS- The Lions have improved dramatically while the Rams have fallen off of a cliff. Todd Gurley is good, but teams have figure out how to stop him after the Ravens rendered him basically useless. LIONS 33-20
SAINTS AT BUCCANEERS- They're not a great team yet, but the Buccaneers beat the Saints in New Orleans--why shouldn't they beat them in Tampa? BUCCANEERS 28-24
TITANS AT JETS- The Jets are simply too good with Revis on the field to lose this game. JETS 30-21
STEELERS AT BENGALS- The Bengals beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh, they should beat them again in Cincy, but I fully expect a close, hard-fought game. Tyler Eifert's return will prove pivotal against a Steelers defense that has struggled against the tight ends this season. BENGALS 24-21
COLTS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars have showed promise despite a poor record this season, but their defense without a key linebacker will not hold up to the Colts offense. COLTS 34-23
CHARGERS AT CHIEFS- For so many reasons, the Chargers won't win this game. CHIEFS 28-13
REDSKINS AT BEARS- The Redskins have yet to win a road game this season. They needed to beat the Cowboys last week because three of their four remaining games are on the road. BEARS 30-21
FALCONS AT PANTHERS- What about the Falcons would make ANYONE believe they could win this game? PANTHERS 38-17
SEAHAWKS AT RAVENS- This will be the first first loss the Ravens suffer by more than a score. Sure, the Seahawks had to travel across the country and play at 1:00, but the Ravens are starting the backup to the backup who has never won an NFL game. This shouldn't be a blowout of epic proportions, but Russell Wilson is too slippery to allow the Ravens to get enough pressure to win this game. SEAHAWKS 28-17
RAIDERS AT BRONCOS- The Broncos are playing well enough with Osweiler running the show to dash the Raiders' dwindling hopes of a playoff berth. BRONCOS 31-27
COWBOYS AT PACKERS- I know the Cowboys beat a divisional rival last week, but without Romo there is simply no way they're going into Lambeau and coming out with a win. It should be closer than I'm probably making it seem though. PACKERS 28-21
PATRIOTS AT TEXANS- The Texans have won tougher games such as their win on the road over the Bengals. With Gronkowski back (I can hardly imagine he'll be 100%) the Patriots offense will once again be a difficult force to stop. If any defense could stop them it would be the that of the Texans, but the fact that J.J. Watt just broke his hand should provide just enough of an edge for the Patriots to take this game. I sure hope I'm wrong. PATRIOTS 35-24
GIANTS AT DOLPHINS- The Dolphins offense looked absolutely horrendous last week. Their defense will have trouble with the Giants wide receivers. GIANTS 28-19.
I KNOW THE OFF-SEASON FEELS LONG, AND IT FEELS FRUSTRATING THAT BASICALLY AN ENTIRE SEASON WAS WASTED BECAUSE OF A PILE OF KEY, SEASON-ENDING INJURIES, BUT SOMETIMES TEAMS HAVE TO TAKE ONE STEP BACK TO TAKE TWO STEPS FORWARD. A GREAT DRAFT POSITION COULD MEAN A FUTURE HALL-OF-FAMER FOR THE RAVENS AND DOMINANCE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS TO COME. ONCE AGAIN, STAY TUNED FOR UPCOMING DRAFT PROSPECT ANALYSIS, BECAUSE IT'S TIME RAVENS FANS HAVE SOMETHING TO WHICH THEY CAN LOOK FORWARD. DON'T STOP ROOTING FOR OUR GUYS, BUT A LOSS IS MORE VALUABLE THAN A WIN AT THIS POINT.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!...SECURE THAT DRAFT SPOT!
Last week the Ravens lost by two points to a Miami Dolphins team that which Baltimore outplayed substantially. The major call in question came on a flawlessly clean 55 yard touchdown that would have easy made the difference in a game where the Ravens held Ryan Tannehill to just over 80 passing yards and a single offensive score. Instead, however, a referee called the receiver, Daniel Brown, for what the replay proved to be an utter fictional offensive pass interference. Not only did Daniel not push off, he actually didn't even put either of his hands on the defensive back at ALL. The defensive back, instead, put one hand on the receiver and then turned and lost his footing, thus, drawing the flag and negating what would have meant a Ravens win.
The Ravens should be on a 5 game winning streak right now, but the referees took away both the Dolphins game AND the Jaguars game--and the league even ADMITTED the Ravens legitimately should have won the Jaguars game. Instead of 6-6, the Ravens now sit 4-8 without a shot at the playoffs. Here's the thing though: the Ravens are better off having lost those two games. In order for Baltimore to have had a realistic shot at the playoffs, a host of teams needed to lose last week and would need to lose more games going forward. Well most of those teams did NOT lose last week, and appear to have serious momentum going forward. At this point, any two teams out of the Jets, Steelers, Texans, and Chiefs will take the wildcard spots for the AFC. The Ravens have fought and continue to fight valiantly despite their copious critical, season-ending injuries and mounting losses, but they're essentially (though not officially) mathematically eliminated, and the team benefits far more from a higher draft pick now that they've finally reached this point.
You may have noticed that I've changed my tune since last week. Last week I insisted that the Ravens still had a slim glimmer of hope of they could win in Miami and certain other teams could lose. Well neither of those things happened, and while I still continue to root for our beloved Ravens each week, my hope that they could find a way to squeak into the playoffs has been entirely extinguished. I still maintain that this team stands to gain a lot developmentally by giving everything it has in an attempt to win each remaining game. I don't, however, expect the Ravens to be ABLE to win more than maybe one more game this season, and it's possible and likely they won't even win THAT much. Every remaining team is a playoff contender and a red-hot one at that. The Seahawks suddenly appear to be the fiercest team in the NFC, and the Chiefs, Steelers, and Bengals all make up a trio of the most dangerous teams in the AFC at this point. The Ravens have improved their defense by leaps and bounds, and their offense has received a boost Buck Allen's rise as one of the most dynamic young running backs in the last two weeks. The quarterback position, however, has been taken down several notches with the pick-sixes from Matt Schaub in both games he has started, and now Jimmy Clausen may have to take over because of a shoulder injury Schaub sustained last week. Jimmy Clausen likely won't be an improvement over Schaub, and the Ravens will suffer a home losing streak the likes of which hasn't been seen during the John Harbaugh era.
If it's any consolation to Ravens fans, the Steelers actually may not make the playoffs either. As good as they looked last week against the Colts, the Steelers still have to face the Bengals in Cincy, the Broncos at home, and then they face the Ravens in Baltimore. Sure, I don't expect the Ravens to beat the Steelers without Joe, but it's Ravens-Steelers and that means anything can happen. Regardless, if the Steelers simply lose to the Bengals and Broncos, they'll finish 9-7 at BEST. Their head to head loss to the Chiefs means Kansas City has a tiebreaker over them, and the Texans or Jets (or both) should finish with at least 9 wins which would make the situation unclear for Ben and company. The Steelers are still good enough that they could potentially win out, but their remaining schedule is fairly daunting. We'll know much more about their status after their game against the Bengals later today.
Ok. So even I, the eternal purple optimist, now have given up hope on a Ravens playoff berth and am actually quite excited about the draft in 2016. In fact, assuming that the Ravens lose out with Jimmy Clausen running the show, the Ravens will absolutely have top 5 draft pick position. Think about that for a moment--if the Ravens lose out and the Steelers miss the playoffs with a 9-7 record, the Ravens will have a top 5 draft pick and the Steelers will not...and BOTH teams will have missed the playoffs. HA. Misery, of course, loves company, and I make no secret about my sheer joy at watching the Steelers and Patriots lose. This season simply wasn't meant to be for the Ravens, but with a great 2016 draft and a host of returning key veterans, Baltimore should be poised for a big comeback next season. Stay tuned over the next several weeks as I'm going to get an early start on draft prospect analysis. Ok, let's take a look at this week's picks.
WEEK 14 NFL PICKS
BILLS AT EAGLES- I get that the Eagles narrowly beat an ailing Patriots team last week, but I don't believe that means their problems are solved. Chip Kelly may have his players amped up because they have as good a shot as any other NFC East team of winning the division at this point, but Buffalo is good enough to make life hard for phans in Philly. BILLS 31-27
49ERS AT BROWNS- The 49ers are still a bad team, but they've improved. They improved, however, a little too late, and a win this week in Cleveland will be meaningless. Maybe it'll keep fans in San Fran hopeful for the future though. I know how they feel. 49ERS 21-17
LIONS AT RAMS- The Lions have improved dramatically while the Rams have fallen off of a cliff. Todd Gurley is good, but teams have figure out how to stop him after the Ravens rendered him basically useless. LIONS 33-20
SAINTS AT BUCCANEERS- They're not a great team yet, but the Buccaneers beat the Saints in New Orleans--why shouldn't they beat them in Tampa? BUCCANEERS 28-24
TITANS AT JETS- The Jets are simply too good with Revis on the field to lose this game. JETS 30-21
STEELERS AT BENGALS- The Bengals beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh, they should beat them again in Cincy, but I fully expect a close, hard-fought game. Tyler Eifert's return will prove pivotal against a Steelers defense that has struggled against the tight ends this season. BENGALS 24-21
COLTS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars have showed promise despite a poor record this season, but their defense without a key linebacker will not hold up to the Colts offense. COLTS 34-23
CHARGERS AT CHIEFS- For so many reasons, the Chargers won't win this game. CHIEFS 28-13
REDSKINS AT BEARS- The Redskins have yet to win a road game this season. They needed to beat the Cowboys last week because three of their four remaining games are on the road. BEARS 30-21
FALCONS AT PANTHERS- What about the Falcons would make ANYONE believe they could win this game? PANTHERS 38-17
SEAHAWKS AT RAVENS- This will be the first first loss the Ravens suffer by more than a score. Sure, the Seahawks had to travel across the country and play at 1:00, but the Ravens are starting the backup to the backup who has never won an NFL game. This shouldn't be a blowout of epic proportions, but Russell Wilson is too slippery to allow the Ravens to get enough pressure to win this game. SEAHAWKS 28-17
RAIDERS AT BRONCOS- The Broncos are playing well enough with Osweiler running the show to dash the Raiders' dwindling hopes of a playoff berth. BRONCOS 31-27
COWBOYS AT PACKERS- I know the Cowboys beat a divisional rival last week, but without Romo there is simply no way they're going into Lambeau and coming out with a win. It should be closer than I'm probably making it seem though. PACKERS 28-21
PATRIOTS AT TEXANS- The Texans have won tougher games such as their win on the road over the Bengals. With Gronkowski back (I can hardly imagine he'll be 100%) the Patriots offense will once again be a difficult force to stop. If any defense could stop them it would be the that of the Texans, but the fact that J.J. Watt just broke his hand should provide just enough of an edge for the Patriots to take this game. I sure hope I'm wrong. PATRIOTS 35-24
GIANTS AT DOLPHINS- The Dolphins offense looked absolutely horrendous last week. Their defense will have trouble with the Giants wide receivers. GIANTS 28-19.
I KNOW THE OFF-SEASON FEELS LONG, AND IT FEELS FRUSTRATING THAT BASICALLY AN ENTIRE SEASON WAS WASTED BECAUSE OF A PILE OF KEY, SEASON-ENDING INJURIES, BUT SOMETIMES TEAMS HAVE TO TAKE ONE STEP BACK TO TAKE TWO STEPS FORWARD. A GREAT DRAFT POSITION COULD MEAN A FUTURE HALL-OF-FAMER FOR THE RAVENS AND DOMINANCE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS TO COME. ONCE AGAIN, STAY TUNED FOR UPCOMING DRAFT PROSPECT ANALYSIS, BECAUSE IT'S TIME RAVENS FANS HAVE SOMETHING TO WHICH THEY CAN LOOK FORWARD. DON'T STOP ROOTING FOR OUR GUYS, BUT A LOSS IS MORE VALUABLE THAN A WIN AT THIS POINT.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!...SECURE THAT DRAFT SPOT!
Saturday, December 5, 2015
WEEK 13 NFL PREDICTIONS
This continues to be the most frustrating Ravens season in recent memory. Suddenly the Ravens find themselves at 4-7 and not entirely out of the playoff race with 5 games left to play. One could point back to many narrow losses and say "if only they had made that one catch" or "if only we still had Steve Smith or Suggs", but the truly frustrating point was that the Jaguars game legitimately SHOULD have been a win for the Ravens...and the NFL confirmed that fact. If, in fact, that game HAD been called correctly, the Ravens would sit at 5-6 with a shot at improving to 6-6 this weekend against a Dolphins team that has struggled as of late. *Sigh* There's simply no correcting the outcome of a game after the fact, but it's important that we note the Ravens SHOULD be on a 4 game winning streak right now, and they've still officially won 3 out of their last 4 games.
In the last 5 weeks of the season (one was a bye) the Ravens have figured out how to turn narrow losses into narrow wins. I am fully aware that each of these wins only serves to worsen Baltimore's position in the 2016 NFL Draft, but finding ways to win with the current cast of characters may go much further to the advancement of this team over the next few seasons than being several spots higher in the draft. The fact is that the Ravens don't need to draft the most sought after quarterback available, and that would be the best reason to own the top spot. Sure, it would be nice to have the top spot from a value standpoint as Ozzie Newsome could easily trade back from the first spot to anywhere in the top 5 or top 10 and receive extra picks for years. Figuring out how to win with nearly a team full of backups, however, gives the Ravens far more for next season than an impact player or two.
The recent season-ending injury to Justin Forsett has given young talent a chance to shine. Buck Allen has immediately demonstrated vision, burst, elusiveness, the strength to break tackles, and great pass-catching ability. If that weren't enough, the Ravens recently acquired Terrance West to share carries with Allen. West was on the Ravens' draft radar two years ago, but he was picked by the Browns before the Ravens had a chance to draft him in the round they likely planned to do so. The Towson alum and Baltimore native has displayed unquestionable talent in his brief time in the league with roughly 700 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns as a rookie. He also displayed excellent lateral movement as he made his former teammates miss last Monday in Cleveland. These two young running backs will likely be the one-two push of the Ravens' rushing attack for the next few years, and this season gives them an invaluable volume of reps that simply wouldn't have been possible with a healthy Justin Forsett. There's no question that the Ravens need help in the wide receiver department, but that may take care of itself as the Ravens will have Breshad Perriman FINALLY back from his knee injury during this off-season, and that will be like getting an extra first round pick for 2016. A team certainly doesn't need the first overall pick to draft great receiving talent. I have never even heard of one of the greatest receivers in the league being drafted in the top 2-3 picks.
It's not as though Matt Schaub will be the quarterback of the Ravens future, but they get the benefit of having a proven veteran with plenty of experience in this offense to finish out this season. Hopefully Schaub will be able to continue to get in sync with the remaining Ravens wide receivers and tight ends to shock some doubters with a win or two over a quality team. I must admit that I briefly lost hope in this team after they officially lost to the Jaguars, but their wins over the last two weeks have, despite the loss of Joe Flacco, shown me this team has something that many teams do not: quality coaching. In all likelihood, the Ravens are not going to the playoffs, but their coaching staff has made enough adjustments to win games in the second half of the season no matter who is on their roster. With that said, there is actually still a faint glimmer of playoff hope, and it's brighter than many people actually realize...
The Ravens will face a Dolphins team that has not scored more than 20 points in the last 5 weeks. There was a brief two week point wherein the Dolphins appeared to have turned their season around. They fired their head coach, and suddenly they demolished the Titans 38-10 and blasted the Texans 44-26. That momentum came to a screeching halt when the Dolphins' most talented pass rusher and defensive player, Cameron Wake, fell victim to a season-ending injury. Suddenly the Dolphins couldn't keep opposing offenses off the field, and that limited their own offensive opportunities. Miami's only win over the last 5 games was a 20-19 victory over an Eagles team that is going through its OWN catastrophic tailspin. The Dolphins, in fact, have been outscored by opponents by an average of 14.4 points per game since the end of Wake's season.
Part of me feels for the Dolphins. They, after all, are in an incredibly similar situation to that of the Ravens with only 4 wins, and they too lost their best defensive player. I even love the city of Miami and root for the Dolphins when they're not playing the Ravens. This Sunday, however, they're playing the Ravens. The Ravens happen to be facing the Dolphins at a time when Miami will be without one of its starting wide receivers, Rishard Matthews, its starting right offensive tackle, Ja'Wuan James, and its starting defensive tackle, Earl Mitchell. The Ravens WILL have to contend with Dolphins first round pick, DeVante Parker, who had 80 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Jets last week, but it's difficult to imagine Tannehill having a tremendous amount of success against a Ravens defense that is only truly vulnerable against offenses that make big, downfield plays. Tannehill struggles on deep passes, and his ability to find the time to even attempt long throws will be diminished by the mismatch of Elvis Dumervil against a backup right tackle. Despite the loss of Terrell Suggs, the Ravens are still tied with the Seahawks for the 12th most sacks in the league, and they've brought enough ferocious pressure, and violent hits to take starting quarterbacks out in the last two games. The Dolphins have allowed Tannehill to be sacked 33 times this season...ouch.
The most vulnerable aspect of the Dolphins has to be their run defense. The Dolphins have given up the second most fantasy points in the league to running backs this season, and they'll be facing a Ravens team that appears to be hitting its stride in the rushing department at the right time. Miami has, in fact, allowed an average of 138 yards per game on the ground in 2015. In the last 5 games that average has been a staggering 149 yards allowed! The Dolphins limited the injury plagued Eagles to 83 yards on the ground, but they allowed the Cowboys to rush for a monstrous 266 yards. Fortunately for the Ravens, they happen to have a pair of the best run-blocking mauler offensive guards in the league in Marshal Yanda and Kelechi Osemele. Osemele will return to action this week after and solid week of practice. A weakened Dolphins front seven will almost certainly struggle to stop Buck Allen and Terrance West running behind the likes of Yanda and Osemele, and if the Dolphins commit everything they have to stopping the Ravens rushing attack, Schaub should be able to work the middle of the field with his tight ends and find the likes of Chris Givens open downfield on play action passes.
Ok, so let's say the Ravens handle their business and DO in fact beat the Dolphins on Sunday. Suddenly they'll find themselves at least somewhat in the thick of things for the AFC wildcard hunt. Sure, they'll be a game or two behind where they'd likely need to be in order to have a decent probability of shocking the world, but this team has been in every single game it has played this season and gone toe to toe with the likes of the Broncos, Bengals, and Cardinals--they have a shot to win every game they play even if the odds are against them. So let's look at the AFC wildcard race for a moment. This weekend the 6-5 Steelers play a red-hot Colts team in Pittsburgh. My first impulse would be to say the Steelers win this game at home since Ben is playing, but the Colts are better than they appear with a healthy starting quarterback. In the last 3 weeks, the Colts beat the Broncos, Falcons, and Buccaneers, and even in the 3 losses immediately prior to their current winning streak, the Colts only barely lost to an undefeated Panthers team on the road in overtime, and lost to both the Saints and Patriots by a touchdown. This Colts team certainly has the firepower to exploit a Steelers pass defense that just gave up 5 receiving touchdowns to the Seahawks last week.
So let's say the Steelers lose and find themselves 6-6. Now we look to a key matchup of the Chiefs in Oakland against the Raiders. The Chiefs will not have their best defensive player and pass rusher, Justin Houston, and they'll be without their starting center, Mitch Morse. Morse's backup could be adequate, but the Chiefs will struggle to get pressure on an incredibly mobile Derek Carr on the road. This could easily be a loss for the Chiefs which would bring both the Chiefs and Raiders to 6-6 records. The Jets are also a 6 win team that could easily lose this weekend. They've had a thunderous running game and stout defense most of the season, but the Jets will once again be without Darrelle Revis OR his backup this Sunday, and that could lead to a loss against a Giants team with the wide receivers to torch just about anyone. A loss would leave the Jets with a 6-6 record as well...hmmm, interesting. The Texans have looked great as of late, and my gut tells me they'll beat the Bills in Buffalo. If they do, it will knock the Bills down to 5-7 and elevate the Texans to 7-5. If, however, the Texans lose, the Bills and Texans will BOTH be 6-6...again, hmmm.
The Ravens clearly have a decent chance of improving to 5-7 and also ending the week only one game behind all or nearly all of the wildcard contenders. The Ravens finish the final month of their season with 3 consecutive home games against tough teams and one road game against a Bengals team that may very well have clinched their position in the playoffs and could easily pull their starters against the Ravens. The Bengals might even find it prudent to allow the Ravens to back into the playoffs knowing full well that they'd be a relatively easy playoff team to beat after having lost so many starters. One way or another, the Ravens have given us yet another week to hope and wonder about what they can do to salvage this season. The odds are against them, but I can think of plenty of times where that was the case and John Harbaugh found a way to keep the team motivated and competitive to the bitter end. They beat the odds every single week all the way to a Super Bowl a few years ago, and even when they missed the playoffs in 2013, they were one quarter away from winning their division in the final game of the regular season. They're nowhere near the team that slaughtered the Steelers and came a couple of plays away from beating the Patriots in the playoffs last season, but this team's will to fight is unquestionably inspiring. Ok, with that said, let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 13 NFL PICKS
JETS AT GIANTS- This game could make a fool out of me, but I fully expect Eli Manning and company to exploit the absence of Darrelle Revis and his backup. O'dell Beckam should have a great day, and the Giants should retake the lead of the worst division in footGTball. This, however, will be no sort of blowout. The Jets will find success on the ground, and Chris Ivory will rush for at least 100 yards. The Giants improved pass rush with the return of JPP will be enough to slow down the Jets' passing attack, and the Giants will have a big second half to edge their New York counterparts. GIANTS 27-24
CARDINALS AT RAMS- I don't really care that the Rams beat the Cardinals last time they faced them. The Cardinals are a better team from top to bottom, and they should have learned quite a bit about how to beat the Rams since their first surprising loss to them this season. CARDINALS 23-14
FALCONS AT BUCCANEERS- The Falcons are a bad team at this point, and the Buccaneers are just a little bit better. Take the Falcons out of Atlanta and they have no shot at winning this game...and it's in Tampa. BUCCANEERS 31-17
SEAHAWKS AT VIKINGS- The Seahawks will focus so much of their power on stopping Adrian Peterson that Teddy Bridgewater will have some success through the air. The Seahawks also WON'T be able to stop Adrian Peterson anyway. No Marshawn Lynch and no Jimmy Graham (yes I know he wasn't have a great season) means the stout Vikings defense will have two less weapons for which they must account. Outside of Seattle the Seahawks don't have the finishing power to hold of a quality team. The only Seahawks road wins have come against two of the worst teams in the league (the 49ers and Cowboys). The Vikings are 4-1 at home with their only home loss coming at the hands of the 8-4 Packers. VIKINGS 28-21
TEXANS AT BILLS- One way or another, the Texans have found ways to be dominant over the last month. They even beat two strong teams, the Bengals and Jets, in addition to the two poor teams they destroyed, the Titans an Saints. J.J. Watt is playing like the defense player of the year once again, and if he wins that award for the third year in a row, he'll basically cement his place in the hall of fame with plenty of career left to continue to dominate. The Bills have an inexplicably disappointing defense this season, and it's confusing to figure out how Rex Ryan ruined one of last season's best units. TEXANS 24-17
RAVENS AT DOLPHINS- Whichever team loses this game will have any lingering playoff hopes totally dashed. The Ravens have never lost to the Dolphins during John Harbaugh's head coaching career. The Ravens defense has improved with the emergence of Sharice Wright as the third cornerback, and the Ravens pass rush will be dialed up heavily against a quarterback who has enjoyed little protection all season and who won't have the benefit of his starting right tackle. The Ravens, as mentioned above, should run roughshod over one of the worst run defenses in the league as starting left guard Kelechi Osemele returns to the field. The Ravens are mostly vulnerable to quarterbacks who can make big downfield throws...Tannehill is not one of them. This will be the Ravens first solid victory of the season. RAVENS 28-17
BENGALS AT BROWNS- The Browns have zero hope at this point. BENGALS 42-14
JAGUARS AT TITANS- With Allen Hurns out, the Jaguars offense will struggle to find its rhythm against the Titans. This loss will end the Jaguars dwindling hopes of squeezing into the playoffs. TITANS 21-20
49ERS AT BEARS- This one is a headscratcher! BEARS 33-20
BRONCOS AT CHARGERS- The Chargers have been a team hit with nearly as many injuries as the Ravens this season. They had a nice win over the Jaguars last week, but the Broncos defense will stifle nearly everything the Chargers attempt as they lack the elite weapons with which they began the season. BRONCOS 30-14
CHIEFS AT RAIDERS- The Raiders will unleash some serious aerial firepower this week on a Chiefs defense that is suddenly without its most critical defender. Derek Carr's playoff hopes will at least temporarily be kept alive by a narrow home win against one of the hottest teams in the NFL over the last month an a half. RAIDERS 35-31
PANTHERS AT SAINTS- SNOOOOOZE. PANTHERS 34-16
EAGLES AT PATRIOTS- Gronk will be out, but the Eagles have basically checked out of this season and their players are nearly ready to make their head coach walk the metaphorical plank. The Patriots find ways to win at home, and Jamie Collins' return will help solidify a defense that struggled without him last week. PATRIOTS 38-19
COLTS AT STEELERS- I don't doubt the Colts, but I have enough faith the Steelers offense with Ben Roethlisberger playing to expect them to simply outscore Matt Hasselbeck and company. The old quarterback's fairy tale hits a bit of a snag this week in Pittsburgh. STEELERS 33-24
COWBOYS AT REDSKINS- No Romo? No win. The Redskins are strong at home this season, and the Cowboys are winless without Romo. REDSKINS 28-13
I GET IT, EVEN WITH A WIN THIS SUNDAY, THE RAVENS HAVE AN UPHILL BATTLE TO SLIP THEIR WAY INTO THE PLAYOFFS, BUT LAST WEEK'S WIN KEPT EVEN THE DIMMEST OF HOPES ALIVE FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE WEEK. IF YOU'RE A TRUE RAVENS FAN, YOU NEVER ROOT FOR THEM TO LOSE. SURE, WE CAN AT LEAST TAKE SOLACE IN THE DRAFT SPOT THE RAVENS WILL HELP SECURE WITH EACH LOSS THEY AMASS, BUT WINS AT THIS POINT GO JUST AS FAR TO HELPING THE RAVENS DEVELOP PLAYERS AND A GAME PLAN FOR NEXT SEASON AS THE DRAFT POSITION LIKELY WILL. IT AIN'T OVER TILL IT'S OVER, BALTIMORE.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
In the last 5 weeks of the season (one was a bye) the Ravens have figured out how to turn narrow losses into narrow wins. I am fully aware that each of these wins only serves to worsen Baltimore's position in the 2016 NFL Draft, but finding ways to win with the current cast of characters may go much further to the advancement of this team over the next few seasons than being several spots higher in the draft. The fact is that the Ravens don't need to draft the most sought after quarterback available, and that would be the best reason to own the top spot. Sure, it would be nice to have the top spot from a value standpoint as Ozzie Newsome could easily trade back from the first spot to anywhere in the top 5 or top 10 and receive extra picks for years. Figuring out how to win with nearly a team full of backups, however, gives the Ravens far more for next season than an impact player or two.
The recent season-ending injury to Justin Forsett has given young talent a chance to shine. Buck Allen has immediately demonstrated vision, burst, elusiveness, the strength to break tackles, and great pass-catching ability. If that weren't enough, the Ravens recently acquired Terrance West to share carries with Allen. West was on the Ravens' draft radar two years ago, but he was picked by the Browns before the Ravens had a chance to draft him in the round they likely planned to do so. The Towson alum and Baltimore native has displayed unquestionable talent in his brief time in the league with roughly 700 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns as a rookie. He also displayed excellent lateral movement as he made his former teammates miss last Monday in Cleveland. These two young running backs will likely be the one-two push of the Ravens' rushing attack for the next few years, and this season gives them an invaluable volume of reps that simply wouldn't have been possible with a healthy Justin Forsett. There's no question that the Ravens need help in the wide receiver department, but that may take care of itself as the Ravens will have Breshad Perriman FINALLY back from his knee injury during this off-season, and that will be like getting an extra first round pick for 2016. A team certainly doesn't need the first overall pick to draft great receiving talent. I have never even heard of one of the greatest receivers in the league being drafted in the top 2-3 picks.
It's not as though Matt Schaub will be the quarterback of the Ravens future, but they get the benefit of having a proven veteran with plenty of experience in this offense to finish out this season. Hopefully Schaub will be able to continue to get in sync with the remaining Ravens wide receivers and tight ends to shock some doubters with a win or two over a quality team. I must admit that I briefly lost hope in this team after they officially lost to the Jaguars, but their wins over the last two weeks have, despite the loss of Joe Flacco, shown me this team has something that many teams do not: quality coaching. In all likelihood, the Ravens are not going to the playoffs, but their coaching staff has made enough adjustments to win games in the second half of the season no matter who is on their roster. With that said, there is actually still a faint glimmer of playoff hope, and it's brighter than many people actually realize...
The Ravens will face a Dolphins team that has not scored more than 20 points in the last 5 weeks. There was a brief two week point wherein the Dolphins appeared to have turned their season around. They fired their head coach, and suddenly they demolished the Titans 38-10 and blasted the Texans 44-26. That momentum came to a screeching halt when the Dolphins' most talented pass rusher and defensive player, Cameron Wake, fell victim to a season-ending injury. Suddenly the Dolphins couldn't keep opposing offenses off the field, and that limited their own offensive opportunities. Miami's only win over the last 5 games was a 20-19 victory over an Eagles team that is going through its OWN catastrophic tailspin. The Dolphins, in fact, have been outscored by opponents by an average of 14.4 points per game since the end of Wake's season.
Part of me feels for the Dolphins. They, after all, are in an incredibly similar situation to that of the Ravens with only 4 wins, and they too lost their best defensive player. I even love the city of Miami and root for the Dolphins when they're not playing the Ravens. This Sunday, however, they're playing the Ravens. The Ravens happen to be facing the Dolphins at a time when Miami will be without one of its starting wide receivers, Rishard Matthews, its starting right offensive tackle, Ja'Wuan James, and its starting defensive tackle, Earl Mitchell. The Ravens WILL have to contend with Dolphins first round pick, DeVante Parker, who had 80 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Jets last week, but it's difficult to imagine Tannehill having a tremendous amount of success against a Ravens defense that is only truly vulnerable against offenses that make big, downfield plays. Tannehill struggles on deep passes, and his ability to find the time to even attempt long throws will be diminished by the mismatch of Elvis Dumervil against a backup right tackle. Despite the loss of Terrell Suggs, the Ravens are still tied with the Seahawks for the 12th most sacks in the league, and they've brought enough ferocious pressure, and violent hits to take starting quarterbacks out in the last two games. The Dolphins have allowed Tannehill to be sacked 33 times this season...ouch.
The most vulnerable aspect of the Dolphins has to be their run defense. The Dolphins have given up the second most fantasy points in the league to running backs this season, and they'll be facing a Ravens team that appears to be hitting its stride in the rushing department at the right time. Miami has, in fact, allowed an average of 138 yards per game on the ground in 2015. In the last 5 games that average has been a staggering 149 yards allowed! The Dolphins limited the injury plagued Eagles to 83 yards on the ground, but they allowed the Cowboys to rush for a monstrous 266 yards. Fortunately for the Ravens, they happen to have a pair of the best run-blocking mauler offensive guards in the league in Marshal Yanda and Kelechi Osemele. Osemele will return to action this week after and solid week of practice. A weakened Dolphins front seven will almost certainly struggle to stop Buck Allen and Terrance West running behind the likes of Yanda and Osemele, and if the Dolphins commit everything they have to stopping the Ravens rushing attack, Schaub should be able to work the middle of the field with his tight ends and find the likes of Chris Givens open downfield on play action passes.
Ok, so let's say the Ravens handle their business and DO in fact beat the Dolphins on Sunday. Suddenly they'll find themselves at least somewhat in the thick of things for the AFC wildcard hunt. Sure, they'll be a game or two behind where they'd likely need to be in order to have a decent probability of shocking the world, but this team has been in every single game it has played this season and gone toe to toe with the likes of the Broncos, Bengals, and Cardinals--they have a shot to win every game they play even if the odds are against them. So let's look at the AFC wildcard race for a moment. This weekend the 6-5 Steelers play a red-hot Colts team in Pittsburgh. My first impulse would be to say the Steelers win this game at home since Ben is playing, but the Colts are better than they appear with a healthy starting quarterback. In the last 3 weeks, the Colts beat the Broncos, Falcons, and Buccaneers, and even in the 3 losses immediately prior to their current winning streak, the Colts only barely lost to an undefeated Panthers team on the road in overtime, and lost to both the Saints and Patriots by a touchdown. This Colts team certainly has the firepower to exploit a Steelers pass defense that just gave up 5 receiving touchdowns to the Seahawks last week.
So let's say the Steelers lose and find themselves 6-6. Now we look to a key matchup of the Chiefs in Oakland against the Raiders. The Chiefs will not have their best defensive player and pass rusher, Justin Houston, and they'll be without their starting center, Mitch Morse. Morse's backup could be adequate, but the Chiefs will struggle to get pressure on an incredibly mobile Derek Carr on the road. This could easily be a loss for the Chiefs which would bring both the Chiefs and Raiders to 6-6 records. The Jets are also a 6 win team that could easily lose this weekend. They've had a thunderous running game and stout defense most of the season, but the Jets will once again be without Darrelle Revis OR his backup this Sunday, and that could lead to a loss against a Giants team with the wide receivers to torch just about anyone. A loss would leave the Jets with a 6-6 record as well...hmmm, interesting. The Texans have looked great as of late, and my gut tells me they'll beat the Bills in Buffalo. If they do, it will knock the Bills down to 5-7 and elevate the Texans to 7-5. If, however, the Texans lose, the Bills and Texans will BOTH be 6-6...again, hmmm.
The Ravens clearly have a decent chance of improving to 5-7 and also ending the week only one game behind all or nearly all of the wildcard contenders. The Ravens finish the final month of their season with 3 consecutive home games against tough teams and one road game against a Bengals team that may very well have clinched their position in the playoffs and could easily pull their starters against the Ravens. The Bengals might even find it prudent to allow the Ravens to back into the playoffs knowing full well that they'd be a relatively easy playoff team to beat after having lost so many starters. One way or another, the Ravens have given us yet another week to hope and wonder about what they can do to salvage this season. The odds are against them, but I can think of plenty of times where that was the case and John Harbaugh found a way to keep the team motivated and competitive to the bitter end. They beat the odds every single week all the way to a Super Bowl a few years ago, and even when they missed the playoffs in 2013, they were one quarter away from winning their division in the final game of the regular season. They're nowhere near the team that slaughtered the Steelers and came a couple of plays away from beating the Patriots in the playoffs last season, but this team's will to fight is unquestionably inspiring. Ok, with that said, let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 13 NFL PICKS
JETS AT GIANTS- This game could make a fool out of me, but I fully expect Eli Manning and company to exploit the absence of Darrelle Revis and his backup. O'dell Beckam should have a great day, and the Giants should retake the lead of the worst division in footGTball. This, however, will be no sort of blowout. The Jets will find success on the ground, and Chris Ivory will rush for at least 100 yards. The Giants improved pass rush with the return of JPP will be enough to slow down the Jets' passing attack, and the Giants will have a big second half to edge their New York counterparts. GIANTS 27-24
CARDINALS AT RAMS- I don't really care that the Rams beat the Cardinals last time they faced them. The Cardinals are a better team from top to bottom, and they should have learned quite a bit about how to beat the Rams since their first surprising loss to them this season. CARDINALS 23-14
FALCONS AT BUCCANEERS- The Falcons are a bad team at this point, and the Buccaneers are just a little bit better. Take the Falcons out of Atlanta and they have no shot at winning this game...and it's in Tampa. BUCCANEERS 31-17
SEAHAWKS AT VIKINGS- The Seahawks will focus so much of their power on stopping Adrian Peterson that Teddy Bridgewater will have some success through the air. The Seahawks also WON'T be able to stop Adrian Peterson anyway. No Marshawn Lynch and no Jimmy Graham (yes I know he wasn't have a great season) means the stout Vikings defense will have two less weapons for which they must account. Outside of Seattle the Seahawks don't have the finishing power to hold of a quality team. The only Seahawks road wins have come against two of the worst teams in the league (the 49ers and Cowboys). The Vikings are 4-1 at home with their only home loss coming at the hands of the 8-4 Packers. VIKINGS 28-21
TEXANS AT BILLS- One way or another, the Texans have found ways to be dominant over the last month. They even beat two strong teams, the Bengals and Jets, in addition to the two poor teams they destroyed, the Titans an Saints. J.J. Watt is playing like the defense player of the year once again, and if he wins that award for the third year in a row, he'll basically cement his place in the hall of fame with plenty of career left to continue to dominate. The Bills have an inexplicably disappointing defense this season, and it's confusing to figure out how Rex Ryan ruined one of last season's best units. TEXANS 24-17
RAVENS AT DOLPHINS- Whichever team loses this game will have any lingering playoff hopes totally dashed. The Ravens have never lost to the Dolphins during John Harbaugh's head coaching career. The Ravens defense has improved with the emergence of Sharice Wright as the third cornerback, and the Ravens pass rush will be dialed up heavily against a quarterback who has enjoyed little protection all season and who won't have the benefit of his starting right tackle. The Ravens, as mentioned above, should run roughshod over one of the worst run defenses in the league as starting left guard Kelechi Osemele returns to the field. The Ravens are mostly vulnerable to quarterbacks who can make big downfield throws...Tannehill is not one of them. This will be the Ravens first solid victory of the season. RAVENS 28-17
BENGALS AT BROWNS- The Browns have zero hope at this point. BENGALS 42-14
JAGUARS AT TITANS- With Allen Hurns out, the Jaguars offense will struggle to find its rhythm against the Titans. This loss will end the Jaguars dwindling hopes of squeezing into the playoffs. TITANS 21-20
49ERS AT BEARS- This one is a headscratcher! BEARS 33-20
BRONCOS AT CHARGERS- The Chargers have been a team hit with nearly as many injuries as the Ravens this season. They had a nice win over the Jaguars last week, but the Broncos defense will stifle nearly everything the Chargers attempt as they lack the elite weapons with which they began the season. BRONCOS 30-14
CHIEFS AT RAIDERS- The Raiders will unleash some serious aerial firepower this week on a Chiefs defense that is suddenly without its most critical defender. Derek Carr's playoff hopes will at least temporarily be kept alive by a narrow home win against one of the hottest teams in the NFL over the last month an a half. RAIDERS 35-31
PANTHERS AT SAINTS- SNOOOOOZE. PANTHERS 34-16
EAGLES AT PATRIOTS- Gronk will be out, but the Eagles have basically checked out of this season and their players are nearly ready to make their head coach walk the metaphorical plank. The Patriots find ways to win at home, and Jamie Collins' return will help solidify a defense that struggled without him last week. PATRIOTS 38-19
COLTS AT STEELERS- I don't doubt the Colts, but I have enough faith the Steelers offense with Ben Roethlisberger playing to expect them to simply outscore Matt Hasselbeck and company. The old quarterback's fairy tale hits a bit of a snag this week in Pittsburgh. STEELERS 33-24
COWBOYS AT REDSKINS- No Romo? No win. The Redskins are strong at home this season, and the Cowboys are winless without Romo. REDSKINS 28-13
I GET IT, EVEN WITH A WIN THIS SUNDAY, THE RAVENS HAVE AN UPHILL BATTLE TO SLIP THEIR WAY INTO THE PLAYOFFS, BUT LAST WEEK'S WIN KEPT EVEN THE DIMMEST OF HOPES ALIVE FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE WEEK. IF YOU'RE A TRUE RAVENS FAN, YOU NEVER ROOT FOR THEM TO LOSE. SURE, WE CAN AT LEAST TAKE SOLACE IN THE DRAFT SPOT THE RAVENS WILL HELP SECURE WITH EACH LOSS THEY AMASS, BUT WINS AT THIS POINT GO JUST AS FAR TO HELPING THE RAVENS DEVELOP PLAYERS AND A GAME PLAN FOR NEXT SEASON AS THE DRAFT POSITION LIKELY WILL. IT AIN'T OVER TILL IT'S OVER, BALTIMORE.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
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