Forgive me for not posting predictions and analysis last week...I needed to decompress after an embarrassing loss to the Seahawks. It wasn't that I expected the Ravens to win--I predicted them to lose soundly, but watching them get utterly destroyed for the first (and not the last) time this season was painful. It certainly didn't help that they played sloppy football the next weekend against the Chiefs either, but it was actually imperative that the Chiefs win that game as the Ravens need to keep their #3 draft position secure. This week should be no different. The Ravens face a red-hot Steelers team that hasn't failed to score over 30 points in quite some time. I don't believe the Steelers have the defense needed to win a Super Bowl, and they won't be able to secure homefield advantage as the Bengals will still win the division, but the Steelers have the firepower to take it to just about anyone provided that Ben Roethlisberger can remain upright and healthy.
I'm sure Ravens players and coaches would feel some semblance of satisfaction if by some stroke of luck they were able to beat the Steelers, but there's simply no reason to do so. The best the Ravens can hope for is a competitive game wherein they both expose weaknesses in the Steelers game plan and still end up losing. The reality is, however, that a loss is a loss, and there are too many key Ravens on injured reserve to even keep this game within 14 points. Lest anyone forgot I shall list some of the more important integral cogs missing from this figurative machine: Joe Flacco, Terrell Suggs, Steve Smith Sr., Crocket Gillmore, Justin Forsett, Breshad Perriman, Jeremy Zuttah, Chris Canty, and Eugene Monroe. That list doesn't even include HALF of the Ravens players placed on injured reserve this season, but it contains nearly all of the Ravens biggest stars.
Far too long this season, I clung to hope that the Ravens could turn their season around. I was not alone. I, after all, looked at each of their narrow losses early in the season and thought that if only they had THIS player back healthy they might turn narrow losses into wins. There certainly was merit to that argument, and the reasoning wasn't far fetched, but there was no way I or any loyal fan could have known that nearly half the roster would be put on injured reserve. Ironically, the Ravens ability to win meaningful football games probably truly ended as soon as Terrell Suggs went down in Denver in Week 1. So much of what the Ravens do defensively depends on Suggs' leadership and his elite ability to both rush the passer and stop the run. His absence is particularly apparent now that Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are retired. I have no doubt that Suggs will return for one or two more seasons following his rehab, but the Ravens defense simply isn't the same without a player of that caliber.
Fortunately for us, the Ravens have a great draft position with which they should be able to pick a player who can become an immediate starter. I still have faith in Ozzie Newsome despite bad luck with first round picks in 2 out of the last 3 drafts. Anyone who read my draft wishlists after the Ravens won the Super Bowl knows I didn't have Matt Elam at the top of the list of safeties I believed the Ravens should pick. I, instead, wanted them to go with Jonathan Cyprien, who has done quite well thus far in his NFL career. There are many impatient Ravens fans who lambaste Ozzie for picking Breshad Perriman. These same critics have decided to label the young receiver as a bust simply because he sustained a knee injury before getting a chance to hit the field this season. Any criticism of the 2015 draft first round draft pick is likely premature as Perriman will presumably be quite healthy and also fairly experienced after having spent an entire year at Ravens facilities soaking up the playbook. The addition of Perriman will be like having an extra first round pick in the 2016 draft, and that's something for which even the most doubtful Ravens fans should be happy. Sure, it would have been nice to see Perriman get on the field late this season, but that wouldn't have meant much anyway considering that Joe Flacco tore his ACL.
Sometimes it takes one step back to take two steps forward. Going into next season with a healthy Breshad Perriman, an impact player from the top of the first round of the draft (the top of the second round too for that matter), and the return of Suggs and Flacco, the Ravens should easily be ready to return to their status as major AFC contenders. There are many who believe the Ravens' first priority should be finding receiving talent early in the draft--I am not one of those people. Far more important to the success of next season is the acquisition of a defensive player who can make an immediate impact in 2016. There are two defensive players I believe the Ravens could take the first round who could bring immediate significant improvement to a unit that has allowed an embarrassing 25 points per game this season. The first is, of course, Ohio State defensive end, Joe Bosa. Bosa is essentially a younger J.J. Watt. He stands at 6'6" and nearly 280 pounds, and he possesses the explosive speed and physicality to scare nearly anyone who finds himself lined up opposite this behemoth. Bosa can rip by and bullrush through offensive linemen to get to the quarterback, and he seemingly effortlessly uses his push-pull move to toss run-blockers aside and get to the ball carrier (this move can be seen at 1:56 and 2:13 in the video linked below). Bosa's highlights speak for themselves, take a look:
Joey Bosa 2015 Defensive End
A defensive end with this level of pass-rushing and run-stuffing talent would be impossible for the Ravens to pass up with the third pick of the draft. The question is whether or not Bosa will be available with the 3rd overall pick. The Titans and Browns are both slated to pick before the Ravens, and the question remains as to whether or not the Titans and Browns will view offensive tackles or quarterbacks as a higher priority than a defensive lineman. The Ravens might even view offensive tackle as a greater priority than defensive lineman considering Eugene Monroe's issues staying healthy and a lack of quality depth behind him. Kelechi Osemele has played offensive tackle well for the past couple of weeks, but he'll be a free agent after this season, and the Ravens likely won't be able to afford to pay him an offensive tackle contract with Eugene Monroe already on the books. The Ravens could, instead, draft the best offensive tackle available, and either start him at left tackle, or start him at right tackle if Eugene Monroe is healthy and doesn't get cut this summer.
In the event that the Ravens do go with the best left tackle available, it's highly likely they'll pick Notre Dame's Ronnie Stanley. Stanley is the second best tackle in the draft, and the best tackle, Laremy Tunsil, could very well be off the board as the Titans appear likely to pick him first overall. Stanley, however, has the frame, athleticism, and sheer strength to ultimately be a starting left tackle anywhere he goes. The 2015 did expose a few weaknesses in Stanley's game such as the fact that he struggles to sink his hips back down and reset after a defensive lineman has gotten under his pads and stood him up. Stanley does, nevertheless, display the ability to block defensive lineman and then get to the second level that is required to be successful in a zone blocking scheme such as that of the Ravens. His pass protecting skills are fantastic with only some minor adjustments that will be worked out with pro experience. At 6'6" and 315 muscular pounds, Ronnie Stanley possesses prototypical left tackle size. At the very least, if Eugene Monroe stays a Raven, Stanley can be placed at left guard to replace Kelechi Osemele assuming he leaves for a big contract elsewhere. I couldn't exactly find a highlight reel for the young tackle, but here's the video from his performance against Syracuse in the 2014 season:
Ronnie Stanley (Notre Dame OT) vs Syracuse 2014
I doubt Ronnie Stanley will make the same impact his first season that Joey Bosa likely would as a rookie, but that doesn't mean the value isn't still phenomenally high, and a top offensive tackle would certainly fill a serious Ravens need. Another major glaring need is in the secondary. It appears highly likely that the Ravens will shift Lardarius Webb to free safety where he has shown the ability to play quite well when asked to do so in the second half of the season. That would mean the starting safeties would be Will Hill at strong and Webb at free with the likes of Kendrick Lewis, Terrence Brooks, and Matt Elam providing depth. With Webb at safety, however, the Ravens will need a serious presence opposite Jimmy Smith at corner. I have twice posted the highlights of Florida State corner, Jalen Ramsey, on facebook. Ramsey has good size, reportedly excellent leadership abilities, and the versatility to play safety at a high level. I had planned most of this week to write about why I believe he'd be the best defensive back for the Ravens to draft. I changed my mind. Vernon Hargreaves III is simply the best cover corner in the draft and his prowess as a ballhawk is spectacular. Jalen Ramsey does have great upside and versatility, but his ability to make an immediate impact and shut down his side of the field is nowhere close to that of Hargreaves. The Florida product may not be what anyone would consider big for a corner at 5'11", but he's certainly not undersized at nearly 195 pounds. His instincts, athleticism, and technique mean he'll make an immediate impact as a Ravens starter, and his presence could totally change how teams have to gameplan for the Ravens. Check out his highlights:
Vernon Hargreaves III: Florida Gator - Career Highlights [HD]
The cool thing about the 2016 NFL draft is that the Ravens will have their choice of basically all of the elite players available. Ozzie and company have never failed to deliver when picking in the top 10, and this will literally be the highest draft pick he's ever had at his disposal. It's also possible that Ozzie will trade back between the 5th and 10th picks and STILL get a top notch player AND an additional 2nd and even possibly an extra 3rd round pick as well. If, for example, Ozzie stays pat and picks 3rd, he should go with Joey Bosa if he's on the board or Ronnie Stanley if Bosa has already been picked. If both Stanley and Bosa are off the board at 3rd (highly unlikely) then Ozzie should trade back and pick Hargreaves III. In any likely scenario, the Ravens get an impact player that fills a major need, and they're left with the 3rd pick in each round for the rest of the draft along with a handful of compensatory picks. This means the Ravens will be in prime position to pick a quality wide receiver with their second round pick. The season is essentially already over for the Ravens, but the offseason has already begun. We, as football fans, still have plenty of football to watch, and for that reason let's now take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 16 NFL PICKS
REDSKINS AT EAGLES- It's kind of hilarious to think that the Eagles at 6-8 in the final two weeks of the season actually still have a shot at winning their division. The last time these two teams played one another in D.C. it was an extremely close game. That game, however, did not feature Desean Jackson. The Eagles pass defense is one of the very worst in the league, and the Redskins will get a rare road victory to help solidify their grasp on the division. I can't see the Redskins going beyond the first week of the post-season, but they should at least make it to the playoffs. REDSKINS 27-20
PATRIOTS AT JETS- This is unquestionably the game of the week, and that's sad considering it's Steelers week here in Baltimore. The Patriots made a great late game comeback against the Jets early in the season in Foxborough, but now they head to New Jersey without Julian Edelman or Danny Amendola. The Patriots DO have Rob Gronkowski, and Brandon LaFell will likely play despite his own injury, but there's no question that the Patriots are short-staffed compared to the last time they faced the Jets. It's almost never a good idea to bet against the Patriots, and there's a good chance I'll look foolish for doing this, but the Jets have what it takes to beat the Patriots in the Meadowlands this time around, especially since Tom Brady has less weapons with which to move the football. The Patriots want homefield advantage through the playoffs, but the Jets are fighting to simply get INTO the playoffs. As it stands, Gang Green is on the outside looking in. They have to hope that either the Chiefs or Steelers lose this weekend and they MUST beat the Patriots. The Patriots already have 12 wins, and they know that if they don't win this week, at least they'll have a winnable game next week to secure a first round bye and homefield advantage. Ugh, this is tough. JETS 31-28
TEXANS AT TITANS- The Titans stand to gain absolutely nothing by winning this game, and they stand to lose their number one draft pick. The Texans need to win this to help solidify their position as division leader and ensure a playoff spot. Marcus Mariota is out for the season. J.J. Watt will have a field day. TEXANS 38-13
BROWNS AT CHIEFS- What a nice late-season gift for Kansas City. CHIEFS 42-17
COLTS AT DOLPHINS- The Colts will be fighting to hang on to hope that the Texans could lose in the next two weeks. The Dolphins have lost motivation to win and gained motivation to lose as their draft position will be better if they lose out. COLTS 23-20
49ERS AT LIONS- These are two bad teams, but the Lions are...well...LESS bad. LIONS 30-14
COWBOYS AT BILLS- Yet another meaningless game. I'll have to give this one to the home team. BILLS 21-17
BEARS AT BUCCANEERS- UGH!!! SO MUCH MEANINGLESS FOOTBALL!!! This is getting frustrating just to think about. Without Alshon Jeffrey, I can't see the Bears winning. The Buccaneers are still trying to find their rhythm and develop Jameis Winston. BUCCANEERS 23-21
PANTHERS AT FALCONS- The Panthers won't rest their starters this week, but they will next week. This should be over before halftime. PANTHERS 35-3
STEELERS AT RAVENS- This is no sort of classic Ravens-Steelers slugfest. The Ravens have nothing to gain by winning this, nor do they have the physical ability to do so barring some calamitous injury to Ben Roethlisberger. STEELERS 37-19
JAGUARS AT SAINTS- The Saints have improved since the first half of the season. I'll pick them against a mediocre team at home. SAINTS 33-21
RAMS AT SEAHAWKS- The Rams usually play the Seahawks competitively, but the Rams are bad right now and the Seahawks look like one of the top 2 teams in the NFC...and they're at home. SEAHAWKS 31-16
PACKERS AT CARDINALS- The Packers don't have enough weapons to win this game on the road. The Cardinals are in the zone right now despite the loss of Tyrann Mathieu. CARDINALS 24-21
GIANTS AT VIKINGS- If Odell Beckham Jr. had not been suspended, I would have predicted a narrow Giants win here. His appeal failed, and the Vikings will win instead. VIKINGS 27-21.
BENGALS AT BRONCOS- The Bengals aren't good enough without Red Rocket to win this game on the road, and the Broncos are playing for their post-season lives. BRONCOS 28-20
FOR THE BALTIMORE RAVENS, THIS IS MERELY THE BEGINNING OF 2016, NOT THE END OF 2015. THIS TEAM WILL REBOUND GET BACK TO WINNING NEXT SEASON.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
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