This continues to be the most frustrating Ravens season in recent memory. Suddenly the Ravens find themselves at 4-7 and not entirely out of the playoff race with 5 games left to play. One could point back to many narrow losses and say "if only they had made that one catch" or "if only we still had Steve Smith or Suggs", but the truly frustrating point was that the Jaguars game legitimately SHOULD have been a win for the Ravens...and the NFL confirmed that fact. If, in fact, that game HAD been called correctly, the Ravens would sit at 5-6 with a shot at improving to 6-6 this weekend against a Dolphins team that has struggled as of late. *Sigh* There's simply no correcting the outcome of a game after the fact, but it's important that we note the Ravens SHOULD be on a 4 game winning streak right now, and they've still officially won 3 out of their last 4 games.
In the last 5 weeks of the season (one was a bye) the Ravens have figured out how to turn narrow losses into narrow wins. I am fully aware that each of these wins only serves to worsen Baltimore's position in the 2016 NFL Draft, but finding ways to win with the current cast of characters may go much further to the advancement of this team over the next few seasons than being several spots higher in the draft. The fact is that the Ravens don't need to draft the most sought after quarterback available, and that would be the best reason to own the top spot. Sure, it would be nice to have the top spot from a value standpoint as Ozzie Newsome could easily trade back from the first spot to anywhere in the top 5 or top 10 and receive extra picks for years. Figuring out how to win with nearly a team full of backups, however, gives the Ravens far more for next season than an impact player or two.
The recent season-ending injury to Justin Forsett has given young talent a chance to shine. Buck Allen has immediately demonstrated vision, burst, elusiveness, the strength to break tackles, and great pass-catching ability. If that weren't enough, the Ravens recently acquired Terrance West to share carries with Allen. West was on the Ravens' draft radar two years ago, but he was picked by the Browns before the Ravens had a chance to draft him in the round they likely planned to do so. The Towson alum and Baltimore native has displayed unquestionable talent in his brief time in the league with roughly 700 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns as a rookie. He also displayed excellent lateral movement as he made his former teammates miss last Monday in Cleveland. These two young running backs will likely be the one-two push of the Ravens' rushing attack for the next few years, and this season gives them an invaluable volume of reps that simply wouldn't have been possible with a healthy Justin Forsett. There's no question that the Ravens need help in the wide receiver department, but that may take care of itself as the Ravens will have Breshad Perriman FINALLY back from his knee injury during this off-season, and that will be like getting an extra first round pick for 2016. A team certainly doesn't need the first overall pick to draft great receiving talent. I have never even heard of one of the greatest receivers in the league being drafted in the top 2-3 picks.
It's not as though Matt Schaub will be the quarterback of the Ravens future, but they get the benefit of having a proven veteran with plenty of experience in this offense to finish out this season. Hopefully Schaub will be able to continue to get in sync with the remaining Ravens wide receivers and tight ends to shock some doubters with a win or two over a quality team. I must admit that I briefly lost hope in this team after they officially lost to the Jaguars, but their wins over the last two weeks have, despite the loss of Joe Flacco, shown me this team has something that many teams do not: quality coaching. In all likelihood, the Ravens are not going to the playoffs, but their coaching staff has made enough adjustments to win games in the second half of the season no matter who is on their roster. With that said, there is actually still a faint glimmer of playoff hope, and it's brighter than many people actually realize...
The Ravens will face a Dolphins team that has not scored more than 20 points in the last 5 weeks. There was a brief two week point wherein the Dolphins appeared to have turned their season around. They fired their head coach, and suddenly they demolished the Titans 38-10 and blasted the Texans 44-26. That momentum came to a screeching halt when the Dolphins' most talented pass rusher and defensive player, Cameron Wake, fell victim to a season-ending injury. Suddenly the Dolphins couldn't keep opposing offenses off the field, and that limited their own offensive opportunities. Miami's only win over the last 5 games was a 20-19 victory over an Eagles team that is going through its OWN catastrophic tailspin. The Dolphins, in fact, have been outscored by opponents by an average of 14.4 points per game since the end of Wake's season.
Part of me feels for the Dolphins. They, after all, are in an incredibly similar situation to that of the Ravens with only 4 wins, and they too lost their best defensive player. I even love the city of Miami and root for the Dolphins when they're not playing the Ravens. This Sunday, however, they're playing the Ravens. The Ravens happen to be facing the Dolphins at a time when Miami will be without one of its starting wide receivers, Rishard Matthews, its starting right offensive tackle, Ja'Wuan James, and its starting defensive tackle, Earl Mitchell. The Ravens WILL have to contend with Dolphins first round pick, DeVante Parker, who had 80 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Jets last week, but it's difficult to imagine Tannehill having a tremendous amount of success against a Ravens defense that is only truly vulnerable against offenses that make big, downfield plays. Tannehill struggles on deep passes, and his ability to find the time to even attempt long throws will be diminished by the mismatch of Elvis Dumervil against a backup right tackle. Despite the loss of Terrell Suggs, the Ravens are still tied with the Seahawks for the 12th most sacks in the league, and they've brought enough ferocious pressure, and violent hits to take starting quarterbacks out in the last two games. The Dolphins have allowed Tannehill to be sacked 33 times this season...ouch.
The most vulnerable aspect of the Dolphins has to be their run defense. The Dolphins have given up the second most fantasy points in the league to running backs this season, and they'll be facing a Ravens team that appears to be hitting its stride in the rushing department at the right time. Miami has, in fact, allowed an average of 138 yards per game on the ground in 2015. In the last 5 games that average has been a staggering 149 yards allowed! The Dolphins limited the injury plagued Eagles to 83 yards on the ground, but they allowed the Cowboys to rush for a monstrous 266 yards. Fortunately for the Ravens, they happen to have a pair of the best run-blocking mauler offensive guards in the league in Marshal Yanda and Kelechi Osemele. Osemele will return to action this week after and solid week of practice. A weakened Dolphins front seven will almost certainly struggle to stop Buck Allen and Terrance West running behind the likes of Yanda and Osemele, and if the Dolphins commit everything they have to stopping the Ravens rushing attack, Schaub should be able to work the middle of the field with his tight ends and find the likes of Chris Givens open downfield on play action passes.
Ok, so let's say the Ravens handle their business and DO in fact beat the Dolphins on Sunday. Suddenly they'll find themselves at least somewhat in the thick of things for the AFC wildcard hunt. Sure, they'll be a game or two behind where they'd likely need to be in order to have a decent probability of shocking the world, but this team has been in every single game it has played this season and gone toe to toe with the likes of the Broncos, Bengals, and Cardinals--they have a shot to win every game they play even if the odds are against them. So let's look at the AFC wildcard race for a moment. This weekend the 6-5 Steelers play a red-hot Colts team in Pittsburgh. My first impulse would be to say the Steelers win this game at home since Ben is playing, but the Colts are better than they appear with a healthy starting quarterback. In the last 3 weeks, the Colts beat the Broncos, Falcons, and Buccaneers, and even in the 3 losses immediately prior to their current winning streak, the Colts only barely lost to an undefeated Panthers team on the road in overtime, and lost to both the Saints and Patriots by a touchdown. This Colts team certainly has the firepower to exploit a Steelers pass defense that just gave up 5 receiving touchdowns to the Seahawks last week.
So let's say the Steelers lose and find themselves 6-6. Now we look to a key matchup of the Chiefs in Oakland against the Raiders. The Chiefs will not have their best defensive player and pass rusher, Justin Houston, and they'll be without their starting center, Mitch Morse. Morse's backup could be adequate, but the Chiefs will struggle to get pressure on an incredibly mobile Derek Carr on the road. This could easily be a loss for the Chiefs which would bring both the Chiefs and Raiders to 6-6 records. The Jets are also a 6 win team that could easily lose this weekend. They've had a thunderous running game and stout defense most of the season, but the Jets will once again be without Darrelle Revis OR his backup this Sunday, and that could lead to a loss against a Giants team with the wide receivers to torch just about anyone. A loss would leave the Jets with a 6-6 record as well...hmmm, interesting. The Texans have looked great as of late, and my gut tells me they'll beat the Bills in Buffalo. If they do, it will knock the Bills down to 5-7 and elevate the Texans to 7-5. If, however, the Texans lose, the Bills and Texans will BOTH be 6-6...again, hmmm.
The Ravens clearly have a decent chance of improving to 5-7 and also ending the week only one game behind all or nearly all of the wildcard contenders. The Ravens finish the final month of their season with 3 consecutive home games against tough teams and one road game against a Bengals team that may very well have clinched their position in the playoffs and could easily pull their starters against the Ravens. The Bengals might even find it prudent to allow the Ravens to back into the playoffs knowing full well that they'd be a relatively easy playoff team to beat after having lost so many starters. One way or another, the Ravens have given us yet another week to hope and wonder about what they can do to salvage this season. The odds are against them, but I can think of plenty of times where that was the case and John Harbaugh found a way to keep the team motivated and competitive to the bitter end. They beat the odds every single week all the way to a Super Bowl a few years ago, and even when they missed the playoffs in 2013, they were one quarter away from winning their division in the final game of the regular season. They're nowhere near the team that slaughtered the Steelers and came a couple of plays away from beating the Patriots in the playoffs last season, but this team's will to fight is unquestionably inspiring. Ok, with that said, let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 13 NFL PICKS
JETS AT GIANTS- This game could make a fool out of me, but I fully expect Eli Manning and company to exploit the absence of Darrelle Revis and his backup. O'dell Beckam should have a great day, and the Giants should retake the lead of the worst division in footGTball. This, however, will be no sort of blowout. The Jets will find success on the ground, and Chris Ivory will rush for at least 100 yards. The Giants improved pass rush with the return of JPP will be enough to slow down the Jets' passing attack, and the Giants will have a big second half to edge their New York counterparts. GIANTS 27-24
CARDINALS AT RAMS- I don't really care that the Rams beat the Cardinals last time they faced them. The Cardinals are a better team from top to bottom, and they should have learned quite a bit about how to beat the Rams since their first surprising loss to them this season. CARDINALS 23-14
FALCONS AT BUCCANEERS- The Falcons are a bad team at this point, and the Buccaneers are just a little bit better. Take the Falcons out of Atlanta and they have no shot at winning this game...and it's in Tampa. BUCCANEERS 31-17
SEAHAWKS AT VIKINGS- The Seahawks will focus so much of their power on stopping Adrian Peterson that Teddy Bridgewater will have some success through the air. The Seahawks also WON'T be able to stop Adrian Peterson anyway. No Marshawn Lynch and no Jimmy Graham (yes I know he wasn't have a great season) means the stout Vikings defense will have two less weapons for which they must account. Outside of Seattle the Seahawks don't have the finishing power to hold of a quality team. The only Seahawks road wins have come against two of the worst teams in the league (the 49ers and Cowboys). The Vikings are 4-1 at home with their only home loss coming at the hands of the 8-4 Packers. VIKINGS 28-21
TEXANS AT BILLS- One way or another, the Texans have found ways to be dominant over the last month. They even beat two strong teams, the Bengals and Jets, in addition to the two poor teams they destroyed, the Titans an Saints. J.J. Watt is playing like the defense player of the year once again, and if he wins that award for the third year in a row, he'll basically cement his place in the hall of fame with plenty of career left to continue to dominate. The Bills have an inexplicably disappointing defense this season, and it's confusing to figure out how Rex Ryan ruined one of last season's best units. TEXANS 24-17
RAVENS AT DOLPHINS- Whichever team loses this game will have any lingering playoff hopes totally dashed. The Ravens have never lost to the Dolphins during John Harbaugh's head coaching career. The Ravens defense has improved with the emergence of Sharice Wright as the third cornerback, and the Ravens pass rush will be dialed up heavily against a quarterback who has enjoyed little protection all season and who won't have the benefit of his starting right tackle. The Ravens, as mentioned above, should run roughshod over one of the worst run defenses in the league as starting left guard Kelechi Osemele returns to the field. The Ravens are mostly vulnerable to quarterbacks who can make big downfield throws...Tannehill is not one of them. This will be the Ravens first solid victory of the season. RAVENS 28-17
BENGALS AT BROWNS- The Browns have zero hope at this point. BENGALS 42-14
JAGUARS AT TITANS- With Allen Hurns out, the Jaguars offense will struggle to find its rhythm against the Titans. This loss will end the Jaguars dwindling hopes of squeezing into the playoffs. TITANS 21-20
49ERS AT BEARS- This one is a headscratcher! BEARS 33-20
BRONCOS AT CHARGERS- The Chargers have been a team hit with nearly as many injuries as the Ravens this season. They had a nice win over the Jaguars last week, but the Broncos defense will stifle nearly everything the Chargers attempt as they lack the elite weapons with which they began the season. BRONCOS 30-14
CHIEFS AT RAIDERS- The Raiders will unleash some serious aerial firepower this week on a Chiefs defense that is suddenly without its most critical defender. Derek Carr's playoff hopes will at least temporarily be kept alive by a narrow home win against one of the hottest teams in the NFL over the last month an a half. RAIDERS 35-31
PANTHERS AT SAINTS- SNOOOOOZE. PANTHERS 34-16
EAGLES AT PATRIOTS- Gronk will be out, but the Eagles have basically checked out of this season and their players are nearly ready to make their head coach walk the metaphorical plank. The Patriots find ways to win at home, and Jamie Collins' return will help solidify a defense that struggled without him last week. PATRIOTS 38-19
COLTS AT STEELERS- I don't doubt the Colts, but I have enough faith the Steelers offense with Ben Roethlisberger playing to expect them to simply outscore Matt Hasselbeck and company. The old quarterback's fairy tale hits a bit of a snag this week in Pittsburgh. STEELERS 33-24
COWBOYS AT REDSKINS- No Romo? No win. The Redskins are strong at home this season, and the Cowboys are winless without Romo. REDSKINS 28-13
I GET IT, EVEN WITH A WIN THIS SUNDAY, THE RAVENS HAVE AN UPHILL BATTLE TO SLIP THEIR WAY INTO THE PLAYOFFS, BUT LAST WEEK'S WIN KEPT EVEN THE DIMMEST OF HOPES ALIVE FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE WEEK. IF YOU'RE A TRUE RAVENS FAN, YOU NEVER ROOT FOR THEM TO LOSE. SURE, WE CAN AT LEAST TAKE SOLACE IN THE DRAFT SPOT THE RAVENS WILL HELP SECURE WITH EACH LOSS THEY AMASS, BUT WINS AT THIS POINT GO JUST AS FAR TO HELPING THE RAVENS DEVELOP PLAYERS AND A GAME PLAN FOR NEXT SEASON AS THE DRAFT POSITION LIKELY WILL. IT AIN'T OVER TILL IT'S OVER, BALTIMORE.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
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