There have been three major types of games this year for the Ravens. The first is the narrow loss that could'a should'a would'a been a win had Steve Smith made a catch in the endzone at the end of the game, for example. The second type is the narrow win at the last second of the game that both gave fans a glimmer of hope but proved immeasurably costly because it came at the expense of the health of a key player such as Flacco, Smith Sr., or Forsett. The third and final type of game is that which was taken from the Ravens by the referees. I don't say this to whine, as fans of rival teams would almost certainly insist. I, instead, bring it up to highlight one of the worst officiated NFL seasons on record for the entire league.
Last week the Ravens lost by two points to a Miami Dolphins team that which Baltimore outplayed substantially. The major call in question came on a flawlessly clean 55 yard touchdown that would have easy made the difference in a game where the Ravens held Ryan Tannehill to just over 80 passing yards and a single offensive score. Instead, however, a referee called the receiver, Daniel Brown, for what the replay proved to be an utter fictional offensive pass interference. Not only did Daniel not push off, he actually didn't even put either of his hands on the defensive back at ALL. The defensive back, instead, put one hand on the receiver and then turned and lost his footing, thus, drawing the flag and negating what would have meant a Ravens win.
The Ravens should be on a 5 game winning streak right now, but the referees took away both the Dolphins game AND the Jaguars game--and the league even ADMITTED the Ravens legitimately should have won the Jaguars game. Instead of 6-6, the Ravens now sit 4-8 without a shot at the playoffs. Here's the thing though: the Ravens are better off having lost those two games. In order for Baltimore to have had a realistic shot at the playoffs, a host of teams needed to lose last week and would need to lose more games going forward. Well most of those teams did NOT lose last week, and appear to have serious momentum going forward. At this point, any two teams out of the Jets, Steelers, Texans, and Chiefs will take the wildcard spots for the AFC. The Ravens have fought and continue to fight valiantly despite their copious critical, season-ending injuries and mounting losses, but they're essentially (though not officially) mathematically eliminated, and the team benefits far more from a higher draft pick now that they've finally reached this point.
You may have noticed that I've changed my tune since last week. Last week I insisted that the Ravens still had a slim glimmer of hope of they could win in Miami and certain other teams could lose. Well neither of those things happened, and while I still continue to root for our beloved Ravens each week, my hope that they could find a way to squeak into the playoffs has been entirely extinguished. I still maintain that this team stands to gain a lot developmentally by giving everything it has in an attempt to win each remaining game. I don't, however, expect the Ravens to be ABLE to win more than maybe one more game this season, and it's possible and likely they won't even win THAT much. Every remaining team is a playoff contender and a red-hot one at that. The Seahawks suddenly appear to be the fiercest team in the NFC, and the Chiefs, Steelers, and Bengals all make up a trio of the most dangerous teams in the AFC at this point. The Ravens have improved their defense by leaps and bounds, and their offense has received a boost Buck Allen's rise as one of the most dynamic young running backs in the last two weeks. The quarterback position, however, has been taken down several notches with the pick-sixes from Matt Schaub in both games he has started, and now Jimmy Clausen may have to take over because of a shoulder injury Schaub sustained last week. Jimmy Clausen likely won't be an improvement over Schaub, and the Ravens will suffer a home losing streak the likes of which hasn't been seen during the John Harbaugh era.
If it's any consolation to Ravens fans, the Steelers actually may not make the playoffs either. As good as they looked last week against the Colts, the Steelers still have to face the Bengals in Cincy, the Broncos at home, and then they face the Ravens in Baltimore. Sure, I don't expect the Ravens to beat the Steelers without Joe, but it's Ravens-Steelers and that means anything can happen. Regardless, if the Steelers simply lose to the Bengals and Broncos, they'll finish 9-7 at BEST. Their head to head loss to the Chiefs means Kansas City has a tiebreaker over them, and the Texans or Jets (or both) should finish with at least 9 wins which would make the situation unclear for Ben and company. The Steelers are still good enough that they could potentially win out, but their remaining schedule is fairly daunting. We'll know much more about their status after their game against the Bengals later today.
Ok. So even I, the eternal purple optimist, now have given up hope on a Ravens playoff berth and am actually quite excited about the draft in 2016. In fact, assuming that the Ravens lose out with Jimmy Clausen running the show, the Ravens will absolutely have top 5 draft pick position. Think about that for a moment--if the Ravens lose out and the Steelers miss the playoffs with a 9-7 record, the Ravens will have a top 5 draft pick and the Steelers will not...and BOTH teams will have missed the playoffs. HA. Misery, of course, loves company, and I make no secret about my sheer joy at watching the Steelers and Patriots lose. This season simply wasn't meant to be for the Ravens, but with a great 2016 draft and a host of returning key veterans, Baltimore should be poised for a big comeback next season. Stay tuned over the next several weeks as I'm going to get an early start on draft prospect analysis. Ok, let's take a look at this week's picks.
WEEK 14 NFL PICKS
BILLS AT EAGLES- I get that the Eagles narrowly beat an ailing Patriots team last week, but I don't believe that means their problems are solved. Chip Kelly may have his players amped up because they have as good a shot as any other NFC East team of winning the division at this point, but Buffalo is good enough to make life hard for phans in Philly. BILLS 31-27
49ERS AT BROWNS- The 49ers are still a bad team, but they've improved. They improved, however, a little too late, and a win this week in Cleveland will be meaningless. Maybe it'll keep fans in San Fran hopeful for the future though. I know how they feel. 49ERS 21-17
LIONS AT RAMS- The Lions have improved dramatically while the Rams have fallen off of a cliff. Todd Gurley is good, but teams have figure out how to stop him after the Ravens rendered him basically useless. LIONS 33-20
SAINTS AT BUCCANEERS- They're not a great team yet, but the Buccaneers beat the Saints in New Orleans--why shouldn't they beat them in Tampa? BUCCANEERS 28-24
TITANS AT JETS- The Jets are simply too good with Revis on the field to lose this game. JETS 30-21
STEELERS AT BENGALS- The Bengals beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh, they should beat them again in Cincy, but I fully expect a close, hard-fought game. Tyler Eifert's return will prove pivotal against a Steelers defense that has struggled against the tight ends this season. BENGALS 24-21
COLTS AT JAGUARS- The Jaguars have showed promise despite a poor record this season, but their defense without a key linebacker will not hold up to the Colts offense. COLTS 34-23
CHARGERS AT CHIEFS- For so many reasons, the Chargers won't win this game. CHIEFS 28-13
REDSKINS AT BEARS- The Redskins have yet to win a road game this season. They needed to beat the Cowboys last week because three of their four remaining games are on the road. BEARS 30-21
FALCONS AT PANTHERS- What about the Falcons would make ANYONE believe they could win this game? PANTHERS 38-17
SEAHAWKS AT RAVENS- This will be the first first loss the Ravens suffer by more than a score. Sure, the Seahawks had to travel across the country and play at 1:00, but the Ravens are starting the backup to the backup who has never won an NFL game. This shouldn't be a blowout of epic proportions, but Russell Wilson is too slippery to allow the Ravens to get enough pressure to win this game. SEAHAWKS 28-17
RAIDERS AT BRONCOS- The Broncos are playing well enough with Osweiler running the show to dash the Raiders' dwindling hopes of a playoff berth. BRONCOS 31-27
COWBOYS AT PACKERS- I know the Cowboys beat a divisional rival last week, but without Romo there is simply no way they're going into Lambeau and coming out with a win. It should be closer than I'm probably making it seem though. PACKERS 28-21
PATRIOTS AT TEXANS- The Texans have won tougher games such as their win on the road over the Bengals. With Gronkowski back (I can hardly imagine he'll be 100%) the Patriots offense will once again be a difficult force to stop. If any defense could stop them it would be the that of the Texans, but the fact that J.J. Watt just broke his hand should provide just enough of an edge for the Patriots to take this game. I sure hope I'm wrong. PATRIOTS 35-24
GIANTS AT DOLPHINS- The Dolphins offense looked absolutely horrendous last week. Their defense will have trouble with the Giants wide receivers. GIANTS 28-19.
I KNOW THE OFF-SEASON FEELS LONG, AND IT FEELS FRUSTRATING THAT BASICALLY AN ENTIRE SEASON WAS WASTED BECAUSE OF A PILE OF KEY, SEASON-ENDING INJURIES, BUT SOMETIMES TEAMS HAVE TO TAKE ONE STEP BACK TO TAKE TWO STEPS FORWARD. A GREAT DRAFT POSITION COULD MEAN A FUTURE HALL-OF-FAMER FOR THE RAVENS AND DOMINANCE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS TO COME. ONCE AGAIN, STAY TUNED FOR UPCOMING DRAFT PROSPECT ANALYSIS, BECAUSE IT'S TIME RAVENS FANS HAVE SOMETHING TO WHICH THEY CAN LOOK FORWARD. DON'T STOP ROOTING FOR OUR GUYS, BUT A LOSS IS MORE VALUABLE THAN A WIN AT THIS POINT.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!...SECURE THAT DRAFT SPOT!
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