Nothing about the last month of NFL football has instilled confidence in Ravens fans that their team will come anywhere close to earning a playoff berth. As if three painfully close losses to relatively competitive teams weren't enough, the Ravens gave away a halftime lead and ultimately found themselves soundly beaten by one of the worst teams in the NFL last Sunday.
Close losses to the Raiders, Redskins, and Giants could all have been narrow wins were it not for over-aggressive decision-making errors on the part of John Harbaugh, but that certainly didn't mean he was the sole reason they lost. Harbaugh, in fact, made zero such game-changing over-aggressive errors against the Jets, and the Ravens suffered their worst loss of the season.
If you had told me before the Jets game that Harbaugh would be restrained in his decisions, Mike Wallace would catch for 120 yards, and Joe Flacco would have over 200 passing yards in the first half of the game, I probably would have said that the Ravens would have blown out a 1-5 Jets team. Those statistics, however, fail to take into account a major fundamental issue with this Ravens team.
I spent much of this last week listening to sports radio callers talk about Joe Flacco simply not being that good. They insisted that he's always just been mediocre and that now it's simply showing up more because the team lacks tough, "alpha" playmakers such as Anquan Boldin to whom Joe could simply throw the ball up and trust Q would come down with it. I wrestled with this idea because it didn't quite make sense. Joe Flacco clearly isn't Drew Brees or Tom Brady. He doesn't have superb mobility or pinpoint accuracy on passes released 1.5 seconds after the snap of the ball. He has, however, shined brilliantly in many games for years. He has outplayed Brady on multiple occasions in the playoffs, and he's outplayed Ben Roethlisberger and won 7 of his last ten games against the Steelers. So what is it that's making him look so much worse now?
Joe had little offensive success with Marc Trestman as offensive coordinator, and, thus, the Ravens got rid of Trestman. Marty Mornhinweg stepped in and successfully reintroduced the element of the deep passing game, but the Ravens immediately dropped two straight games to teams without winning records. What then is the problem? It was easy to criticize Marc Trestman and John Harbaugh as they certainly deserved much of the blame for the first three losses, but last week's loss to the Jets has made it clear that, more than anything, a lack of quality personnel at key positions was mostly to blame for the Ravens' month-long skid. Injuries certainly had something to do with it, but it's the lack of depth behind injured starters that makes this team so incredibly disappointing.
Baltimore had an opportunity to sign a quality backup offensive tackle when they brought in Jake Long and appeared to have an agreement in place. Long ultimately declined the offer as the proposed contract contained clauses that would mean he'd receive nearly nothing if he suffered any sort of serious injury. I have spent all week wishing the Ravens would have offered him a reasonable amount of guaranteed money for a backup anyway. Ideally Long wouldn't have much opportunity to become injured as he'd only play when starting left tackle, Ronnie Stanley, was hurt. It was already a risky decision to leave two rookies charged with holding down the left side of the offensive line, but having no legitimate backup to the left tackle is a new level of irresponsible management.
I watched old highlights of great plays and drives by Flacco all this week and realized that nearly every one of them had something in common: quality pass protection. Watching the 2011 game-winning drive in Week 9 in Pittsburgh, I was reminded that Joe had 4 Pro Bowl linemen and Michael Oher giving him time to make good reads, set his feet, and deliver strikes to a receiving corps no better than the one the Ravens currently possess. Bryant McKinnie, Ben Grubbs, Matt Birk, Marshal Yanda, and Oher were all durable, physical, experienced, talented offensive linemen. I then took a look at the offensive line the Ravens fielded last Sunday against the Jets and realized that not only did it lack Pro Bowl-caliber talent, but it also featured little starting experience. Jeremy Zuttah is was the only player with more than just 2 full seasons under his belt. Alex Lewis was stuck at left tackle in Ronnie Stanley's absence. Lewis was only just getting his feet wet at guard before he was stuck in a position that he's simply not ready to play at the NFL level.
Beyond Lewis playing out of position, the Ravens offensive line for the last two weeks has simply been devoid of serious talent. Jeremy Zuttah has the most experience, but he was exposed against the Jets as New York blitzed linebackers right into both A-gaps at once to prey upon his weakness in pass protection and collapse the pocket right up the middle. Few things rattle Joe Flacco more than a pocket rapidly collapsing in his face. He has such little trust in this line's ability to keep him upright and give him time to set and throw that he ends up passing off his back foot almost exclusively. Joe was already stepping gingerly with his left leg less than a year following his ACL tear, but now he has been frequently running for his life and throwing ill-advised, hurried passes that fall either way off the mark or into the hands of defenders.
One of the most idiotic comments I heard repeated by fans on the radio was that the Ravens lost because they didn't attempt to run the football more. It's true that the Ravens ran the football only a handful of times in the second half of last week's game, but much of that had to do with the fact that they lost yards or rushed for no gain on each of those rushing attempts. The Ravens offensive linemen couldn't open up any sort of running lanes, and continuing unsuccessfully to run the ball would have done absolutely nothing to change ultimate outcome of the game. What was even more frustrating was the radio commentators buying into that point. I have certainly agreed in the past that the Ravens have had to establish the run to take pressure off of Flacco in order to open up the passing game, but last week's game was simply not one of those situations where either the run or pass was functioning.
The painful loss to the New York Jets was not about play-calling, and it was not about John Harbaugh. It was, instead, about a lack of quality offensive linemen. Only two starters, Marshal Yanda and Ronnie Stanley, sat out the game, but the Ravens offensive line appeared to have backup quality linemen across the board except maybe Rick Wagner. I would implore Ozzie Newsome to make a trade for a quality offensive lineman if I were ever given an audience with the man. I even heard that it was rumored the Ravens were shopping Kamar Aiken in order to negotiate some kind of a trade, but with the trade deadline only two days away, I'm not holding out much hope that a deal gets done.
It would be a tremendous mistake to bank on the idea of the Ravens front office bolstering the offensive line through a last minute trade considering they're working with just over $2 million in cap room. What the Ravens organization and coaching staff must instead do is hope that their offensive line can become and stay reasonably healthy. Beyond the health of the offensive line, the rest of the Ravens roster must make a valiant effort to return to health at key positions. The Ravens played without 5 Pro Bowlers and their 2016 first round pick last week...and it showed. Without Steve Smith Sr. there's little attitude and fire on offense. Without Marshal Yanda, there's little push up front to create running lanes, and without Suggs the Ravens struggled horribly to contain the Jets' ground attack. It's lucky for the Ravens that the rest of the AFC North division is also in a total tailspin as of late with major injuries to playmakers on each of the other three squads.
If the Ravens can't find a way to beat a Steelers team that may start a hobbled Big Ben or no Big Ben at all, this season is basically over. Despite a triumphant 3-0 start, this team has looked far more like the one that struggled valiantly through 2015 than the upgraded unit fans all hoped they'd be in 2016. No longer impeded by Marc Trestman's inferior play-calling and hopefully no longer stifled by John Harbaugh's self-proclaimed "aggressive" decision-making, the Ravens players have only themselves to blame if they fail going forward.
Despite the doom and gloom of 4 straight losses, there were some bright spots during the Jets game. Matt Judon made the first and second sack of his career, and Brandon Williams played out of his mind. Before he had taken any big hits, Joe Flacco actually looked on point with a masterful 53 yard bomb pass to Mike Wallace who had beaten two defenders deep. Joe put the ball right over top of Wallace and hit him in stride for the huge gain. Increasing the number of big plays such as that one will go a long way to turning this offense around, and getting healthy offensive linemen as well as Steve Smith Sr. back will help open things up even further for Wallace. The former Viking/ Dolphin/Steeler is actually on pace to have 1000+ receiving yards and 6-7 touchdowns this season, and he has proven an excellent stop-gap replacement for Torrey Smith while Breshad Perriman develops.
Ok, Baltimore, take a deep breath. The bye week offers Ravens fans a rare, stress-free opportunity to kick back and simply watch football, so with that, let's take a look at this week's picks!
WEEK 8 NFL PICKS
REDSKINS AT BENGALS- The Bengals haven't looked amazing this season, but the return of Tyler Eifert does a lot to open up their offense. Josh Norman won't be able to totally shut down arguably the most talented receiver in football, A.J. Green, but he should at least limit him to a certain degree. Ultimately the Bengals offense with a healthy Eifert is simply more than the Redskins defense will be able to handle on the road. I sure hope the Skins prove me wrong on this one though. BENGALS 31-24
CHIEFS AT COLTS- The Chiefs have been better than the Colts thus far, but the Colts will finally have their top 3 receivers back for the first time in weeks when they face the Chiefs in Indy this Sunday. The Chiefs are 1-2 on the road and the Colts are 2-1 at home. COLTS 28-17
RAIDERS AT BUCCANEERS- The Raiders have struggled at home this season...but who cares? They're going on the road where they're 4-0 thus far in 2016. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, have not won a single game in Tampa Bay this season, and they'll likely struggle to make this their first. RAIDERS 33-20
SEAHAWKS AT SAINTS- The Seahawks won't be able to stop the Saints with Kam Chancellor and Michael Bennett out. This will be a rare win for a disappointing Saints team. SAINTS 24-17
LIONS AT TEXANS- The Texans don't scare anyone and the Lions are finally finding a way to win games. LIONS 24-20
JETS AT BROWNS- I would make disparaging remarks about these teams had the Ravens not just lost to one of them. The Jets' rushing attack impressed me last week. At the very least they've won two games? JETS 21-16
PATRIOTS AT BILLS- With Brady back and LeSean McCoy out, this won't be anything like the last matchup between these two teams. The Patriots aren't flawless, but their balanced offense and strong defense will be more than able to handle the Bills without Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy. PATRIOTS 34-20
CARDINALS AT PANTHERS- The Panthers should get a rare home win against a Cardinal team that is missing too many wide receivers aside of Larry Fitzgerald. Don't get too excited though, Panthers fans. Your team is still awful. PANTHERS 21-13
CHARGERS AT BRONCOS- The Chargers already beat the Broncos, but now the Broncos will be playing without their starting running back, C.J. Anderson. Don't look now, but the Chargers are actually starting to look good after a rough stretch. CHARGERS 23-17
PACKERS AT FALCONS- Aaron Rodgers simply doesn't have the mojo this year required to go into Atlanta and beat Falcons. The Packers are often expected to be great, but this simply isn't their year. Matt Ryan, on the other hand, has been tearing it up even if his team has lost the last two incredible close games. FALCONS 33-21
EAGLES AT COWBOYS- This is absolutely the game of the week, and thankfully it's in primetime on Sunday night. The Cowboys have lost a single game this season...by a single point. The Eagles have had a strong 4-2 start, but they've struggled against decent teams when on the road. The Cowboys aren't simply a decent team--they're a dominant team that is just getting Dez Bryant back. This one should, nevertheless, be interesting. COWBOYS 31-27
VIKINGS AT BEARS- The Bears will struggle to move the football against this Vikings defense. VIKINGS 28-14
I know plenty of Ravens fans who are actually dreading the next Ravens game as they simply can't bear to watch their beloved team lose another game in a row. I have, at this point, no such fear. This is a team that, if healthy, can go toe to toe with solid teams, but like any other team, can't withstand a host of injuries. They have a chance to win a home game against another badly injured team after the bye week, and a win would mean they'd be tied for first place in the division before facing the winless browns at home on the following Thursday night. The Ravens have a real chance to emerge 5-4 after their next two games, and maybe by that time Mornhinweg will have figured out how to utilize all of the Ravens weapons and get the offense rolling. It's easy to abandon hope after 4 disappointing losses, but with the AFC North in total disarray, it's simply too early not to entertain the possibility that this organization can figure out how to get back on track. It's football season, ladies and gentlemen. Let's try to enjoy it.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Saturday, October 29, 2016
Sunday, October 23, 2016
WEEK 7 NFL PICKS AND RAVENS ANALYSIS
The Ravens have one last chance to add another win against an opponent with a losing record before their by week, and then they'll face a significant increase in strength of schedule as they head into the second half of the season. It's not that the Redskins and Raiders were bad teams as both currently possess winning records, but each game was easily winnable. Last week's game against the Giants went mostly as I expected with a narrow Giants win that could have been prevented had Harbaugh once again simply taken points when he could get them instead of going for it on 4th and 1 from the goal line after being stonewalled on the first 3 attempts to muscle the ball in long before the waning minutes of the game. That decision-making sequence exemplifies perhaps the biggest issue that has plagued the Ravens for years now: John Harbaugh's inability to consistently and effectively manage games.
Many people point back to the last 3 seasons since the Ravens won their last Super Bowl as a down period following what had been an incredibly successful first 5 seasons of the Harbaugh-Flacco era. Some people blamed Ozzie Newsome for whiffing hard on a handful of notable early picks in multiple drafts including Sergio Kindle, Terrance Cody, Matt Elam, and Arthur Brown, but you'll find many high draft picks across the league don't pan out for teams. Would it have been nice if each one of those picks had been impact players? Of course, but far too many games could have been won with the talent that the Ravens had on hand were it not for several bone-headed decisions in nearly all of the Ravens losses over the last 4 seasons.
Harbaugh's most glaring error in judgment has been his aforementioned tendency to as he puts it "aggressive" in 4th and short situations. His lack of sound reasoning in that realm this season has been particularly egregious as he has failed to make note of a couple of factors. The first is that the Ravens have statistically only converted on 4th and short on less than one third of their attempts in 2016. The second is that converting on 4th and short on the goal line is not the same as converting on 4th and short in the middle of the field. Converting on 4th and short in the middle of the field allows some of your players to run deeper routes to stretch an opposing defense and get better separation if the quarterback needs to roll out of the pocket and buy some time as Flacco did in his successful 22 yard pass to Kamar Aiken on 4th down last weekend. On the goal line, however, Harbaugh has felt that being aggressive means trying to muscle the ball across using either a quarterback sneak or simply handing off the ball to a tailback with the fullback leading the way. The problem with that approach last Sunday was that the Giants actually possess a top 10 defense against the run...oh and they had just finished stuffing the Ravens 3 consecutive times leading up to that 4th down attempt.
Harbaugh also failed to take into account his personnel once the Ravens got within several yards of the goal line. I understand full that Terrence West is a terrific power back with the ability to both make defenders miss and break tackles, but few backs can do much when their offensive linemen aren't able to get any push at the point of attack. The Ravens were out 3 of their starting 5 offensive linemen, and the backups were simply physically outmatched all day long. They got called for holding because they couldn't sustain blocks legally, and they were less than useless at imposing their will in situations where the Giants knew the Ravens intended to run the football. At least one short passing attempt should have been made on second or third down to a tight end or the fullback, but the Ravens, instead, continued to unsuccessfully in their attempts to plow forward. It's true that West probably walks into the endzone if the Ravens fullback simply makes and sustains his block on that 4th down outside run, but after 3 unsuccessful attempts to run the football from inside the 3 yard line, wouldn't it have made sense to take guaranteed points instead of coming up with nothing when failing to do so has come back to haunt you in so very many games over the past 4 years? I'd hope that Harbaugh would consider how few points the Ravens have scored this season and take any chance he can get to add to that total, but he clearly has had a different thought process.
Harbaugh also has made a habit of squandering second half timeouts and, thus, hampers any ability at a comeback drive in the waning minutes of the game. Adolescents who play too much Madden have a better gauge for clock management than Harbaugh. Sure, Flacco was not exactly accurate during the Ravens final drive of last week's game, but going into that drive with one timeout instead of three meant the Ravens were far more limited in the types of plays they could run to keep the drive moving, and it meant Terrence West couldn't really be part of the process.
Harbaugh's success as a head coach has had little to do with his gamesmanship and a lot to do with the sheer level of talent he inherited when joining the organization. If the Ravens do end up once again missing the playoffs and firing Harbaugh, it would be wise to consider hiring a head coach with experience as an offensive coordinator. Harbaugh's idea of being "aggressive" is simply being reckless with a poorly considered approach. He might be a good manager of people, but in observable decisions that are undeniably his calls to make Harbaugh has demonstrated his inability to play the odds in situations that ultimately end up meaning the difference between winning and losing tightly contested games.
If the Ravens can't beat a Jets teams mired in personnel issues, there's probably little hope that Baltimore can salvage a season that features upcoming games against the Eagles, Steelers, Cowboys, and Patriots. The return of both of the Ravens starting offensive tackles gives hope that they'll be able to protect Flacco and open up running lanes for Terrance West. The Jets have a strong defensive line, but their secondary has proven suspect at times this season. The key against the Jets will be buying time to allow Mike Wallace, Kamar Aiken, and Breshad Perriman to get open, especially deep down field. We've seen the previously elite Darrelle Revis get absolutely torched in one on one coverage this season, and the Ravens would be wise to attack him with Wallace and Perriman on vertical routes. If the game is ultimately lost because of more miscalculations in clock management and errors in judgment regarding settling for field goals, expect Harbaugh to be called into an angry meeting with Steve Bisciotti on Monday. There is no more room for error. He needs to lead his team to a decisive, lopsided victory over a struggling team, or else face the fact that his team may not get to 8 wins again in what could be his last season as head coach of the Ravens. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
THE PICKS
GIANTS AT RAMS- The Rams have probably been a better team than the Giants thus far this season, but it appeared as though the Giants finally found their rhythm when they went to a no-huddle, hurry-up offense last week against the Ravens. The injury to Odell Beckham's hip will likely be the big factor holding them back, but they still have other talented receivers. GIANTS 20-17
SAINTS AT CHIEFS- The Saints have looked frighteningly explosive at times on offense this season, but their defense hasn't been nearly strong enough to win a significant number of games. The Chiefs impressed me with their huge road win in Oakland last week, and they should find similar success against the Saints at home. CHIEFS 28-21
COLTS AT TITANS- The Titans have finally found themselves on a roll and will beat a struggling Colts team. TITANS 30-17
VIKINGS AT EAGLES- It's difficult to imagine even a highly talented rookie QB moving the ball consistently on this Vikings defense that may go down as one of the very best defenses of the past 20 years. VIKINGS 24-20
BROWNS AT BENGALS- With Tyler Eifert back, the Bengals should win a hard-fought divisional matchup. As bad as the Browns' record is, this actually will be quite a fight. BENGALS 27-23
REDSKINS AT LIONS- The Redskins will likely come back down to earth when they go on the road against a Lions team that has truly found its rhythm offensively as of late. LIONS 31-28
RAIDERS AT JAGUARS- The Raiders are simply the better team. RAIDERS 33-21
BILLS AT DOLPHINS- This is probably the most difficult game to predict. Divisional matchups are already tough to read, but the Dolphins are coming off of a huge win over the Steelers at home. The Bills have been on fire recently and haven't lost since replacing their offensive coordinator. They're the more complete team, but I'd like to see a Dolphins win. BILLS 27-20
RAVENS AT JETS- It's easy to doubt the Ravens considering their recent string of losses, but each one of those losses has one thing in common: no Ronnie Stanley. One more week with Marty Mornhinweg calling the offense and the return of starters to the offensive line should be enough to tilt this in favor of Baltimore, but this will, once again, be uncomfortably close. Eric Decker's season-ending injury is likely the factor that will allow the Ravens to have a good defensive game. RAVENS 23-17
BUCCANEERS AT 49ERS- Chip Kelly needs to go back to college for good. BUCCANEERS 35-21
CHARGERS AT FALCONS- This is not a game the Chargers can win in Atlanta. FALCONS 38-24
PATRIOTS AT STEELERS- No Ben and too many defensive injuries will mean another bad day for the Steelers. PATRIOTS 34-14
SEAHAWKS AT CARDINALS- The Seahawks always struggle early in the season but it appears as though they've once again righted the ship. The Cardinals are too shaky for my vote of confidence. If the Seahawks can edge the Falcons, they can stifle the Cardinals. SEAHAWKS 27-19
TEXANS AT BRONCOS- The Texans aren't nearly offensively effective enough to go into Denver and win this game. BRONCOS 28-14
THIS RAVENS SEASON IS STARTING TO FEEL PAINFULLY SIMILAR TO THE LAST ONE. INJURIES, POOR DECISIONS FROM THE HEAD COACH AND SUSPECT COORDINATION HAVE ONCE AGAIN MADE THE DIFFERENCE IN INCREDIBLY CLOSE, HARD FOUGHT GAMES. IF HARBAUGH CAN'T RIGHT THE SHIP AGAINST ARGUABLY THE WORST TEAM LEFT ON THE RAVENS SCHEDULE, THEN HEADS NEED TO ROLL. MORNHINWEG DID SHOW A MARKED UPGRADE OVER TRESTMAN, HOWEVER, AND HE'S GOT BETTER PERSONNEL TO PLAY WITH THIS WEEKEND.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Many people point back to the last 3 seasons since the Ravens won their last Super Bowl as a down period following what had been an incredibly successful first 5 seasons of the Harbaugh-Flacco era. Some people blamed Ozzie Newsome for whiffing hard on a handful of notable early picks in multiple drafts including Sergio Kindle, Terrance Cody, Matt Elam, and Arthur Brown, but you'll find many high draft picks across the league don't pan out for teams. Would it have been nice if each one of those picks had been impact players? Of course, but far too many games could have been won with the talent that the Ravens had on hand were it not for several bone-headed decisions in nearly all of the Ravens losses over the last 4 seasons.
Harbaugh's most glaring error in judgment has been his aforementioned tendency to as he puts it "aggressive" in 4th and short situations. His lack of sound reasoning in that realm this season has been particularly egregious as he has failed to make note of a couple of factors. The first is that the Ravens have statistically only converted on 4th and short on less than one third of their attempts in 2016. The second is that converting on 4th and short on the goal line is not the same as converting on 4th and short in the middle of the field. Converting on 4th and short in the middle of the field allows some of your players to run deeper routes to stretch an opposing defense and get better separation if the quarterback needs to roll out of the pocket and buy some time as Flacco did in his successful 22 yard pass to Kamar Aiken on 4th down last weekend. On the goal line, however, Harbaugh has felt that being aggressive means trying to muscle the ball across using either a quarterback sneak or simply handing off the ball to a tailback with the fullback leading the way. The problem with that approach last Sunday was that the Giants actually possess a top 10 defense against the run...oh and they had just finished stuffing the Ravens 3 consecutive times leading up to that 4th down attempt.
Harbaugh also failed to take into account his personnel once the Ravens got within several yards of the goal line. I understand full that Terrence West is a terrific power back with the ability to both make defenders miss and break tackles, but few backs can do much when their offensive linemen aren't able to get any push at the point of attack. The Ravens were out 3 of their starting 5 offensive linemen, and the backups were simply physically outmatched all day long. They got called for holding because they couldn't sustain blocks legally, and they were less than useless at imposing their will in situations where the Giants knew the Ravens intended to run the football. At least one short passing attempt should have been made on second or third down to a tight end or the fullback, but the Ravens, instead, continued to unsuccessfully in their attempts to plow forward. It's true that West probably walks into the endzone if the Ravens fullback simply makes and sustains his block on that 4th down outside run, but after 3 unsuccessful attempts to run the football from inside the 3 yard line, wouldn't it have made sense to take guaranteed points instead of coming up with nothing when failing to do so has come back to haunt you in so very many games over the past 4 years? I'd hope that Harbaugh would consider how few points the Ravens have scored this season and take any chance he can get to add to that total, but he clearly has had a different thought process.
Harbaugh also has made a habit of squandering second half timeouts and, thus, hampers any ability at a comeback drive in the waning minutes of the game. Adolescents who play too much Madden have a better gauge for clock management than Harbaugh. Sure, Flacco was not exactly accurate during the Ravens final drive of last week's game, but going into that drive with one timeout instead of three meant the Ravens were far more limited in the types of plays they could run to keep the drive moving, and it meant Terrence West couldn't really be part of the process.
Harbaugh's success as a head coach has had little to do with his gamesmanship and a lot to do with the sheer level of talent he inherited when joining the organization. If the Ravens do end up once again missing the playoffs and firing Harbaugh, it would be wise to consider hiring a head coach with experience as an offensive coordinator. Harbaugh's idea of being "aggressive" is simply being reckless with a poorly considered approach. He might be a good manager of people, but in observable decisions that are undeniably his calls to make Harbaugh has demonstrated his inability to play the odds in situations that ultimately end up meaning the difference between winning and losing tightly contested games.
If the Ravens can't beat a Jets teams mired in personnel issues, there's probably little hope that Baltimore can salvage a season that features upcoming games against the Eagles, Steelers, Cowboys, and Patriots. The return of both of the Ravens starting offensive tackles gives hope that they'll be able to protect Flacco and open up running lanes for Terrance West. The Jets have a strong defensive line, but their secondary has proven suspect at times this season. The key against the Jets will be buying time to allow Mike Wallace, Kamar Aiken, and Breshad Perriman to get open, especially deep down field. We've seen the previously elite Darrelle Revis get absolutely torched in one on one coverage this season, and the Ravens would be wise to attack him with Wallace and Perriman on vertical routes. If the game is ultimately lost because of more miscalculations in clock management and errors in judgment regarding settling for field goals, expect Harbaugh to be called into an angry meeting with Steve Bisciotti on Monday. There is no more room for error. He needs to lead his team to a decisive, lopsided victory over a struggling team, or else face the fact that his team may not get to 8 wins again in what could be his last season as head coach of the Ravens. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
THE PICKS
GIANTS AT RAMS- The Rams have probably been a better team than the Giants thus far this season, but it appeared as though the Giants finally found their rhythm when they went to a no-huddle, hurry-up offense last week against the Ravens. The injury to Odell Beckham's hip will likely be the big factor holding them back, but they still have other talented receivers. GIANTS 20-17
SAINTS AT CHIEFS- The Saints have looked frighteningly explosive at times on offense this season, but their defense hasn't been nearly strong enough to win a significant number of games. The Chiefs impressed me with their huge road win in Oakland last week, and they should find similar success against the Saints at home. CHIEFS 28-21
COLTS AT TITANS- The Titans have finally found themselves on a roll and will beat a struggling Colts team. TITANS 30-17
VIKINGS AT EAGLES- It's difficult to imagine even a highly talented rookie QB moving the ball consistently on this Vikings defense that may go down as one of the very best defenses of the past 20 years. VIKINGS 24-20
BROWNS AT BENGALS- With Tyler Eifert back, the Bengals should win a hard-fought divisional matchup. As bad as the Browns' record is, this actually will be quite a fight. BENGALS 27-23
REDSKINS AT LIONS- The Redskins will likely come back down to earth when they go on the road against a Lions team that has truly found its rhythm offensively as of late. LIONS 31-28
RAIDERS AT JAGUARS- The Raiders are simply the better team. RAIDERS 33-21
BILLS AT DOLPHINS- This is probably the most difficult game to predict. Divisional matchups are already tough to read, but the Dolphins are coming off of a huge win over the Steelers at home. The Bills have been on fire recently and haven't lost since replacing their offensive coordinator. They're the more complete team, but I'd like to see a Dolphins win. BILLS 27-20
RAVENS AT JETS- It's easy to doubt the Ravens considering their recent string of losses, but each one of those losses has one thing in common: no Ronnie Stanley. One more week with Marty Mornhinweg calling the offense and the return of starters to the offensive line should be enough to tilt this in favor of Baltimore, but this will, once again, be uncomfortably close. Eric Decker's season-ending injury is likely the factor that will allow the Ravens to have a good defensive game. RAVENS 23-17
BUCCANEERS AT 49ERS- Chip Kelly needs to go back to college for good. BUCCANEERS 35-21
CHARGERS AT FALCONS- This is not a game the Chargers can win in Atlanta. FALCONS 38-24
PATRIOTS AT STEELERS- No Ben and too many defensive injuries will mean another bad day for the Steelers. PATRIOTS 34-14
SEAHAWKS AT CARDINALS- The Seahawks always struggle early in the season but it appears as though they've once again righted the ship. The Cardinals are too shaky for my vote of confidence. If the Seahawks can edge the Falcons, they can stifle the Cardinals. SEAHAWKS 27-19
TEXANS AT BRONCOS- The Texans aren't nearly offensively effective enough to go into Denver and win this game. BRONCOS 28-14
THIS RAVENS SEASON IS STARTING TO FEEL PAINFULLY SIMILAR TO THE LAST ONE. INJURIES, POOR DECISIONS FROM THE HEAD COACH AND SUSPECT COORDINATION HAVE ONCE AGAIN MADE THE DIFFERENCE IN INCREDIBLY CLOSE, HARD FOUGHT GAMES. IF HARBAUGH CAN'T RIGHT THE SHIP AGAINST ARGUABLY THE WORST TEAM LEFT ON THE RAVENS SCHEDULE, THEN HEADS NEED TO ROLL. MORNHINWEG DID SHOW A MARKED UPGRADE OVER TRESTMAN, HOWEVER, AND HE'S GOT BETTER PERSONNEL TO PLAY WITH THIS WEEKEND.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Saturday, October 15, 2016
WEEK 6 NFL PICKS AND RAVENS ANALYSIS
The last two weeks have felt painfully similar to most of last season for Ravens fans. Many teams would be happy about starting the season 3-2, but the first 3 wins of the Ravens' season were won by such slim margins and with such uneven offensive production that being undefeated through three weeks meant little going forward. The defense has held some highly ranked pass offenses in check, but no currently in the league is good enough to win games with the level of offensive production that Marc Trestman was able to create.
I have faith that Marty Mornhinweg will utilize the Ravens' weapons to a far greater degree than Marc Trestman ever did, but this week scares me for issues beyond the scope of Mornhinweg's control. There was no question that a significant number of starting offensive linemen were likely going to sit this out this week when the Ravens quickly signed two backup guards. The Ravens have spent the last two weeks without Ronnie Stanley, and those have been the two weeks they've lost impossibly narrow games rather than WINNING impossibly narrow games. There's no question that his health is a major key to the Ravens offensive success this season. What is more troubling, however, is that Marshal Yanda, the top guard in football for years now, is doubtful to suit up on Sunday. To make matters worse, starting right tackle, Rick Wagner, didn't practice most of the week, and even if he's able to suit up, he may very well be injured and less effective than usual.
It's difficult to imagine an offensive coordinator finding tremendous success in his first week running the unit with three starting offensive linemen questionable or doubtful. Fortunately for the Ravens, a Giants team awaits them that is on an even bigger skid than what Baltimore has just experienced. The Giants began the season with wins over the now red-hot Cowboys and the Saints, and I wasn't the only one who assumed Eli Manning and company were going to once again contend for a playoff spot. Over the last 3 weeks, however, the Giants offense has struggled just as hard as the Ravens offense against decent defensive opponents. New York has, for example, averaged just 13 points per game in the last two weeks against the Vikings and Packers. Also like the Ravens, the Giants, even in victory, struggled to find an offensive rhythm and only barely squeaked by 20-19 in Week 1 and 16-13 in Week 2.
If there weren't already enough similarities between these two teams, the Giants have some major injury concerns of their own. The Giants will not have their starting right tackle on Sunday or their free starting free safety. Both starting corners, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Eli Apple are questionable as is Jason Pierre-Paul. These injuries could prove pivotal, but they don't appear nearly as extensive as those to the Ravens' starting offense.
The Ravens offensive line isn't the only unit with significant injuries. Elvis Dumervil does not appear to be fully recovered from his offseason surgery, and Matt Judon will likely have to play a significant number of snaps in his place. This isn't the worst thing in the world, however, as Judon has impressive speed and will likely be more effective than an injured Dumervil. Steve Smith Sr. is doubtful to play after injuring his ankle during last week's game, but Kamar Aiken has already proven he's fully capable of stepping up in Sr.'s absence.
The keys to this game will be pressure on both Eli Manning and Joe Flacco. Both men are former Super Bowl MVP's and have displayed downright heroic levels of post-season execution, but both have also since struggled to find consistent production in the regular season over the past several years. Both men have impressive receiving weapons at their disposal, but for one reason or another, neither has been able to connect with their weapons consistently enough to find the endzone consistently. The Ravens should have a defensive upper hand as they boast the third ranked defense in the league, but they'll be without C.J. Mosley, and that could be a major issue. Mosley isn't spectacular in pass coverage, but he's great against the run and an excellent pass rusher when sent on a blitz. Mosley has also displayed a knack for the ball with two key interceptions on the season, one that put the Browns' chances of a comeback away. The Ravens will have to shift things around between Albert McClellan and Kamalei Correa to make up for Mosley's absence.
The Ravens offense with backups at key positions on the offensive line and the direction of Marty Mornhinweg is truly an unknown commodity. I'd like to think that the new energy Marty had reportedly brought to the offense and its personnel would be enough to spark a big day against a lackluster team, but the truth is that Marty is starting the game with a questionable hand. The Ravens defense will likely keep the team in this game, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Ravens offense find at least some degree of success against the 22nd ranked pass defense. That success, however, will only come if Mornhinweg is able to first establish an effective rushing attack to take pressure off of Flacco and compensate for the absence of Ronnie Stanley and Marshal Yanda. I would not be surprised to see New York pick on backup offensive linemen and ruin Marty's debut, but hopefully it won't come to that. This is an extremely winnable game, and the Giants have only beaten the Ravens once in team history during the 2008 season. This may not be the week the Ravens fully turn the corner, but they have a decent shot to at least get back on track against another struggling team with many similar issues.
THE PICKS
49ERS AT BILLS- It's possible starting Colin Kaepernick could jumpstart the 49ers, but it's probably not going to happen on the road against a team as hot as the Bills. Buffalo has been on a tear since firing its offensive coordinator after the Week 2 loss to the Jets. BILLS 33-21
EAGLES AT REDSKINS- The Eagles are a far better team than the Redskins. The Skins may have beaten a team determined to give them the game last week, but that won't mean much when facing one of the best, most complete teams in the NFC and the NFL. EAGLES 28-19
BROWNS AT TITANS- The Browns have lost some tough games against some good teams, but they simply get make plays when the game is on the line. TITANS 24-17
RAVENS AT GIANTS- I prey the Ravens make me look stupid with this prediction, but I don't like Baltimore's chances with such a banged up offensive line. The Ravens haven't won a game without Ronnie Stanley on the field, but no Ronnie Stanley and no Marshal Yanda means a bad day for Flacco. The Ravens defense will look good for most of this game, but there are too many dangerous Giants receiving threats that eventually someone will start making plays. Again...Mornhinweg makes me look like a fool, but I can't trust they'll suddenly find an offensive rhythm without their two best offensive linemen and a brand new OC. GIANTS 23-17
PANTHERS AT SAINTS- The Panthers are one of the worst teams in the league this season, and I can't see things improving against a Saints team that has scored a sensational number of points thus far. Josh Norman may not have been the answer to all of D.C.'s woes, but he was a big reason the Panthers won football games last season. SAINTS 38-31
JAGURARS AT BEARS- These are two depressingly bad teams, but at least the Bears have won a home game. The Jaguars haven't won on the road. There's a ton of young talent on the Jags, but they simply haven't played well enough as a unit. BEARS 20-17
RAMS AT LIONS- The Rams have been a solid road team thus far. The Lions hope they can make Justin Forsett work, but we all watched him fail to display the burst and lateral quickness that got him to a Pro Bowl 2 seasons ago. I like Justin though, and so I'm predicting his team will lose...mostly because the one time I picked the Rams to win, they lost. RAMS 27-21
STEELERS AT DOLPHINS- This isn't a game the Steelers should lose, but they won't most the ball that easily, at least not at first, against the Dolphins D. STEELERS 28-17
BENGALS AT PATRIOTS- I loathe the Patriots, but they're the best team in the AFC right now if not the league. It's fun to watch the Bengals collapse after the departure of the one offensive coordinator whose system and play-calling made Red Rocket actually look like a legit QB. Get ready to be 2-4, Cincy. PATRIOTS 35-16
CHIEFS AT RAIDERS- The Chiefs have not won a game on the road. They look horrible on the road and they're about to face a serious Raiders team. RAIDERS 31-20
FALCONS AT SEAHAWKS- The Falcons are rolling, and if the Broncos defense can't stop them, I can't imagine the Seahawks will have too much success, but the Seahawks will still make this interesting. FALCONS 30-27
COWBOYS AT PACKERS- Aaron Rodgers is about one solid receiving target short of having a consistently effective offense. The Pack has lost to the one team with a winning record that they've played thus far. I know very well that Lambeau is a tough environment to visit, but it's too early in the year for the weather to make that much of a difference. The Cowboys offensive line is too good to lose to a team that can't stop them or match them score for score. COWBOYS 28-21
COLTS AT TEXANS- The Texans haven't won on the road, but they also haven't yet lost at home. This is another down year for the Colts, and they've lost both of their road games thus far. TEXANS 23-17
JETS AT CARDINALS- The Jets are screwed without Eric Decker. The Cardinals aren't great, but they should win this one at home against a team with a single win on the year. CARDINALS 19-14
LOSING THIS GAME WOULDN'T MEAN THE RAVENS ARE OUT OF THE PLAYOFF RACE. THEY SIMPLY MUST GET SOME OFFENSIVE LINEMEN BACK HEALTHY AND BEAT THE JETS THE FOLLOWING WEEK BEFORE THEIR BYE WEEK. I ACTUALLY THINK THERE'S A DECENT SHOT THEY BEAT A STRUGGLING GIANTS TEAM, BUT THERE ARE TWO MANY UNKNOWNS FOR ME TO THROW THEM A VOTE OF CONFIDENCE IN THEIR FIRST WEEK WITH A NEW OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR. LET'S HOPE I'M PROVEN HORRIBLY WRONG.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
I have faith that Marty Mornhinweg will utilize the Ravens' weapons to a far greater degree than Marc Trestman ever did, but this week scares me for issues beyond the scope of Mornhinweg's control. There was no question that a significant number of starting offensive linemen were likely going to sit this out this week when the Ravens quickly signed two backup guards. The Ravens have spent the last two weeks without Ronnie Stanley, and those have been the two weeks they've lost impossibly narrow games rather than WINNING impossibly narrow games. There's no question that his health is a major key to the Ravens offensive success this season. What is more troubling, however, is that Marshal Yanda, the top guard in football for years now, is doubtful to suit up on Sunday. To make matters worse, starting right tackle, Rick Wagner, didn't practice most of the week, and even if he's able to suit up, he may very well be injured and less effective than usual.
It's difficult to imagine an offensive coordinator finding tremendous success in his first week running the unit with three starting offensive linemen questionable or doubtful. Fortunately for the Ravens, a Giants team awaits them that is on an even bigger skid than what Baltimore has just experienced. The Giants began the season with wins over the now red-hot Cowboys and the Saints, and I wasn't the only one who assumed Eli Manning and company were going to once again contend for a playoff spot. Over the last 3 weeks, however, the Giants offense has struggled just as hard as the Ravens offense against decent defensive opponents. New York has, for example, averaged just 13 points per game in the last two weeks against the Vikings and Packers. Also like the Ravens, the Giants, even in victory, struggled to find an offensive rhythm and only barely squeaked by 20-19 in Week 1 and 16-13 in Week 2.
If there weren't already enough similarities between these two teams, the Giants have some major injury concerns of their own. The Giants will not have their starting right tackle on Sunday or their free starting free safety. Both starting corners, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Eli Apple are questionable as is Jason Pierre-Paul. These injuries could prove pivotal, but they don't appear nearly as extensive as those to the Ravens' starting offense.
The Ravens offensive line isn't the only unit with significant injuries. Elvis Dumervil does not appear to be fully recovered from his offseason surgery, and Matt Judon will likely have to play a significant number of snaps in his place. This isn't the worst thing in the world, however, as Judon has impressive speed and will likely be more effective than an injured Dumervil. Steve Smith Sr. is doubtful to play after injuring his ankle during last week's game, but Kamar Aiken has already proven he's fully capable of stepping up in Sr.'s absence.
The keys to this game will be pressure on both Eli Manning and Joe Flacco. Both men are former Super Bowl MVP's and have displayed downright heroic levels of post-season execution, but both have also since struggled to find consistent production in the regular season over the past several years. Both men have impressive receiving weapons at their disposal, but for one reason or another, neither has been able to connect with their weapons consistently enough to find the endzone consistently. The Ravens should have a defensive upper hand as they boast the third ranked defense in the league, but they'll be without C.J. Mosley, and that could be a major issue. Mosley isn't spectacular in pass coverage, but he's great against the run and an excellent pass rusher when sent on a blitz. Mosley has also displayed a knack for the ball with two key interceptions on the season, one that put the Browns' chances of a comeback away. The Ravens will have to shift things around between Albert McClellan and Kamalei Correa to make up for Mosley's absence.
The Ravens offense with backups at key positions on the offensive line and the direction of Marty Mornhinweg is truly an unknown commodity. I'd like to think that the new energy Marty had reportedly brought to the offense and its personnel would be enough to spark a big day against a lackluster team, but the truth is that Marty is starting the game with a questionable hand. The Ravens defense will likely keep the team in this game, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Ravens offense find at least some degree of success against the 22nd ranked pass defense. That success, however, will only come if Mornhinweg is able to first establish an effective rushing attack to take pressure off of Flacco and compensate for the absence of Ronnie Stanley and Marshal Yanda. I would not be surprised to see New York pick on backup offensive linemen and ruin Marty's debut, but hopefully it won't come to that. This is an extremely winnable game, and the Giants have only beaten the Ravens once in team history during the 2008 season. This may not be the week the Ravens fully turn the corner, but they have a decent shot to at least get back on track against another struggling team with many similar issues.
THE PICKS
49ERS AT BILLS- It's possible starting Colin Kaepernick could jumpstart the 49ers, but it's probably not going to happen on the road against a team as hot as the Bills. Buffalo has been on a tear since firing its offensive coordinator after the Week 2 loss to the Jets. BILLS 33-21
EAGLES AT REDSKINS- The Eagles are a far better team than the Redskins. The Skins may have beaten a team determined to give them the game last week, but that won't mean much when facing one of the best, most complete teams in the NFC and the NFL. EAGLES 28-19
BROWNS AT TITANS- The Browns have lost some tough games against some good teams, but they simply get make plays when the game is on the line. TITANS 24-17
RAVENS AT GIANTS- I prey the Ravens make me look stupid with this prediction, but I don't like Baltimore's chances with such a banged up offensive line. The Ravens haven't won a game without Ronnie Stanley on the field, but no Ronnie Stanley and no Marshal Yanda means a bad day for Flacco. The Ravens defense will look good for most of this game, but there are too many dangerous Giants receiving threats that eventually someone will start making plays. Again...Mornhinweg makes me look like a fool, but I can't trust they'll suddenly find an offensive rhythm without their two best offensive linemen and a brand new OC. GIANTS 23-17
PANTHERS AT SAINTS- The Panthers are one of the worst teams in the league this season, and I can't see things improving against a Saints team that has scored a sensational number of points thus far. Josh Norman may not have been the answer to all of D.C.'s woes, but he was a big reason the Panthers won football games last season. SAINTS 38-31
JAGURARS AT BEARS- These are two depressingly bad teams, but at least the Bears have won a home game. The Jaguars haven't won on the road. There's a ton of young talent on the Jags, but they simply haven't played well enough as a unit. BEARS 20-17
RAMS AT LIONS- The Rams have been a solid road team thus far. The Lions hope they can make Justin Forsett work, but we all watched him fail to display the burst and lateral quickness that got him to a Pro Bowl 2 seasons ago. I like Justin though, and so I'm predicting his team will lose...mostly because the one time I picked the Rams to win, they lost. RAMS 27-21
STEELERS AT DOLPHINS- This isn't a game the Steelers should lose, but they won't most the ball that easily, at least not at first, against the Dolphins D. STEELERS 28-17
BENGALS AT PATRIOTS- I loathe the Patriots, but they're the best team in the AFC right now if not the league. It's fun to watch the Bengals collapse after the departure of the one offensive coordinator whose system and play-calling made Red Rocket actually look like a legit QB. Get ready to be 2-4, Cincy. PATRIOTS 35-16
CHIEFS AT RAIDERS- The Chiefs have not won a game on the road. They look horrible on the road and they're about to face a serious Raiders team. RAIDERS 31-20
FALCONS AT SEAHAWKS- The Falcons are rolling, and if the Broncos defense can't stop them, I can't imagine the Seahawks will have too much success, but the Seahawks will still make this interesting. FALCONS 30-27
COWBOYS AT PACKERS- Aaron Rodgers is about one solid receiving target short of having a consistently effective offense. The Pack has lost to the one team with a winning record that they've played thus far. I know very well that Lambeau is a tough environment to visit, but it's too early in the year for the weather to make that much of a difference. The Cowboys offensive line is too good to lose to a team that can't stop them or match them score for score. COWBOYS 28-21
COLTS AT TEXANS- The Texans haven't won on the road, but they also haven't yet lost at home. This is another down year for the Colts, and they've lost both of their road games thus far. TEXANS 23-17
JETS AT CARDINALS- The Jets are screwed without Eric Decker. The Cardinals aren't great, but they should win this one at home against a team with a single win on the year. CARDINALS 19-14
LOSING THIS GAME WOULDN'T MEAN THE RAVENS ARE OUT OF THE PLAYOFF RACE. THEY SIMPLY MUST GET SOME OFFENSIVE LINEMEN BACK HEALTHY AND BEAT THE JETS THE FOLLOWING WEEK BEFORE THEIR BYE WEEK. I ACTUALLY THINK THERE'S A DECENT SHOT THEY BEAT A STRUGGLING GIANTS TEAM, BUT THERE ARE TWO MANY UNKNOWNS FOR ME TO THROW THEM A VOTE OF CONFIDENCE IN THEIR FIRST WEEK WITH A NEW OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR. LET'S HOPE I'M PROVEN HORRIBLY WRONG.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Saturday, October 8, 2016
WEEK 5 NFL PICKS AND RAVENS ANALYSIS
Last week's loss to the Raiders, though heartbreaking for Baltimore, was probably necessary for the Ravens' success this season--if the season is ultimately going to be a success. Wins are so hard to come by in the NFL, especially road wins, that a team is happy to come away victorious regardless of the score. It's not that the Ravens don't realize there are issues in literally every phase of their game, but being undefeated can certainly lead a coaching staff to believe that whatever deficiencies they possess are not enough to cause them to lose. It is only when a team is confronted with a loss that players and staff are truly forced to evaluate their weaknesses in depth.
The most obviously flawed Ravens unit is the offense. The offense has struggled so much in the first half of games that it seems miraculous when it eventually comes alive. When the Ravens DO ultimately begin to drive and put points on the board, we're reminded of just how many weapons they possess, and then it leaves fans scratching their heads as to how and why Baltimore tends sleepwalk through first halves.
The first major issue is the running game. The Ravens have not been consistently able to establish the run thus far this season, and only truly found success in the second half of last week's game against a Raiders run defense that sits at the bottom of the league. It's difficult to imagine that the Ravens don't have the personnel to run the football. Terrence West shows power, burst, and excellent lateral movement. When West was finally given an appropriate number of carries last week, he was able to post over 100 yards on the ground with a rushing touchdown. What was nearly as intriguing, however, was the return of Buck Allen to the field. Allen hadn't impressed in the preseason, but he also wasn't correctly used during that span. He was used as pass-catching back against the Raiders and showed off the same ability to make defenders miss that he displayed for much of last season. What many can't figure out is why both of these backs weren't used more often and effectively through the first 3 games.
Marc Trestman isn't known as an offensive coordinator who loves to run the football--quite the opposite. He loves to pass, but he does have a tendency to set up passes to running backs. That worked in Buck Allen's favor last year, but the return of Justin Forsett bumped a more dynamic, younger Allen down the depth chart. With Forsett gone, however, and the return of the sensationally explosive Kenneth Dixon, the Ravens now have 3 running backs with different, complimentary running styles, and each one is capable of being a premier back.
It will be interesting to see how carries are distributed between those three backs going forward, but one thing is for sure: Marc Trestman MUST establish the run early and stick with it to take pressure off of Joe. Flacco's completion percentage is over 70% when he receives solid protection, but it falls near 40% when he's running for his life or forced to get rid of the ball under duress. The offensive line, especially with its starting left tackle out, is incapable of consistently protecting Joe if he is forced to throw the football as much as he has thus far. Even with Ronnie Stanley protecting Joe's blindside, the offense hasn't exactly broken records when Flacco throws the ball on an overwhelming number of snaps.
The Ravens likely won't have their starting left tackle on Sunday, but hopefully Trestman now fully grasps the importance of the Ravens running game as they'll face a Redskins defense that ranks 29th in the league against the run. The Redskins, despite their off season acquisition of Josh Norman, still rank 26th in the league against the pass as well. If the Ravens aren't able to move the football at home against the Skins, this could be a long, depressing season. After finding their rhythm late to the tune of 27 points last week against the Raiders last week, I have a hard time believing the Ravens won't find offensive success on Sunday, but the question that remains is how much success will they find, and will it be enough to outscore the Redskins?
After a rough 0-2 start to their season, the Redskins have won their last two games against similar opponents to those faced by the Ravens thus far. Kirk Cousins has put up elite yardage through the air thus far, and his offense ranks 8th in the league. The production of the Redskins offense comes mostly from their 6th ranked pass offense. The Redskins have a middling ground game which ranks 18th in the league and will likely struggle against an elite Ravens run defense. That may not matter though as the Raiders didn't find success on the ground against the Ravens and still put the ball in the endzone four times. Kirk Cousins has only won 13 games of 30 games as a starter, but he led his team to the playoffs last year, and certainly appears to have come on as of late.
One might think that the Ravens, with one of the highest ranked secondaries in the league, would not be tremendously vulnerable to the pass offense of a 2-2 Redskins team, but it's not the strength of the secondary that should worry Ravens fans; it's the sheer amount of time they spend on the field that is cause for alarm. The Ravens offense punted on 5 of it's 6 first offensive series last week against the Raiders, and that meant that the Ravens defense was on the field far too often. The Ravens actually held the Raiders to under 270 yards of total offense, but Joe Flacco's strip-sack fumble and blown coverage on a punt return gave the Raiders two short fields with which they were able to score two of their 4 touchdowns. If not for mistakes by the Ravens offense and special teams, that game may not have even been close.
More troubling than the 2 touchdowns the Ravens allowed on short fields was the Raiders final touchdown drive with only a few minutes left in the game. Ravens defensive coordinator Dean Pees called for his signature prevent defense which ritualistically allows opposing teams to drive quickly down field. The only team not to be able to drive on the Ravens defense late in games this season thus far was the Buffalo Bills. The Raiders, Jaguars, and Browns all worked methodically and seemingly unimpeded downfield within the last 4-5 minutes, but late interceptions doomed the efforts of both the Browns and Jaguars. Rather than counting on game-sealing turnovers, the Ravens have to focus on getting pressure on quarterbacks late. Only rushing 4 and dropping everyone else into pass coverage has not worked well during Dean Pees' tenure as defensive coordinator in Baltimore. One would assume he'd have figured that out by now and tried a different approach, but we've had no such luck. That same soft prevent defense was exactly what doomed the Ravens the last time they faced Kirk Cousins and the Redskins in 2012. The Ravens went on to win the Super Bowl, but their inability to stop Cousins from driving with almost no time remaining was ultimately what lost them the game.
The Ravens defense, though ranked first in the league, has one glaring weakness in personnel. Shareece Wright has been absolutely abused through the first quarter of the season with 5 touchdowns allowed in 4 games. Pees would be wise to replace Wright with Will Davis who looked fantastic in the pre-season and during his brief action last season before his injury. It seems as though anyone would be better than Wright at this point, and opposing quarterbacks know to pick on him. Jimmy Smith may never again be a shutdown corner, but he has been strong enough to limit a handful of elite receivers this season. Eric Weddle is rated as the top safety in the league by Pro Football Focus, and that's probably the biggest difference between this season's pass defense and that of 2015. Baltmiore's defense ranks in the top 5 in least number of trips to the redzone, but they rank dead last in the league in points allowed once an opposing team enters the redzone. It's clear that problem won't be fixed until Wright is replaced.
Baltimore has only so many opportunities to face teams with poorly ranked defenses this season before their schedule gets significantly tougher. Marc Trestman needs to figure out how to use the offensive weapons at his disposal in a hurry because the Eagles and Patriots defensive units won't be nearly as forgiving. The easiest way to make the defense more effective is to keep it off the field as much as possible. The Ravens offense needs to be able to sustain and finish drives, and they should find more success with a balanced offensive attack that features plenty of carries for Terrence West and Kenneth Dixon, as well as plenty of passes out of the backfield to Buck Allen. Joe Flacco found the most success last week passing to the Ravens' toughest pass catchers in Crockett Gilmore, Steve Smith Sr., and Kyle Juszczyk as all three athletes offer great yards after the catch. Dennis Pitta should once again find himself open with much emphasis placed on stopping the Ravens speedier threats, and we should expect whoever isn't being covered by Josh Norman to make some explosive plays downfield.
This Ravens team has lots of room for improvement, but the weapons are there and just need to be connected with and utilized correctly. A solid win of 10+ points would go a long way to re-establishing the Ravens as an AFC contender. A narrow victory would be acceptable, but it would still leave many fans worried about upcoming opponents. A loss...well a loss would mean this organization has lost the ability to coach effectively. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
THE PICKS
PATRIOTS AT BROWNS- This Patriot defense will give Tom Brady enough opportunities to score 40+ points this weekend. We'll see if he needs to knock off much rust, but I doubt it. If they won 3 our of 4 without Brady, they'll be a force with him. PATRIOTS 42-10
EAGLES AT LIONS- The Eagles are probably the best team in the NFC, and that's bad news for a mediocre Lions team. EAGLES 33-20
BEARS AT COLTS- When two teams are this bad, I tend to just go with the team enjoying homefield advantage. In this case, that's the Colts. COLTS 23-17
TITANS AT DOLPHINS- The Titans won't be able to score enough on the Dolphins defense to win this game. DOLPHINS 20-13
REDSKINS AT RAVENS- The Ravens, with the exception of last year's injury riddled team, seldom drop two games in a row and they seldom do so at home. The Redskins have a capable QB who has put up a lot of yards this season, but their defensive line doesn't have enough muscle to stop the Ravens run or get legitimate, consistent pressure on Flacco. This is the game the Ravens get the offense going with the return of Kenneth Dixon. RAVENS 30-24
TEXANS AT VIKINGS- The Vikings may struggle a bit more to move the football without Stefon Diggs, but their defense won't give Houston much room to breathe. VIKINGS 23-14
JETS AT STEELERS- If the Steelers play anything like they did last week, the Jets don't have a prayer of winning this game. Antonio Brown will make Revis look like an old fool. STEELERS 35-21
FALCONS AT BRONCOS- This is actually my game of the week to watch. The Falcons have been so electric thus far that I'm incredibly curious to see if they can be that way against a serious defense. The Broncos have had a habit of making elite NFC offenses look pedestrian in the mile high city. Just for the fun of it, I'm going to predict an upset here. FALCONS 27-24
BENGALS AT COWBOYS- The Bengals aren't awful, but until Tyler Eifert returns, they're just not a good enough team to win on the road against a serious contender. The Cowboys should make this fun to watch. Pound that rock, boys. P.S. I've started rooting for Dak because I hate Tony Romo so much and want him to be forced to sit when he's healthy. COWBOYS 31-23
BILLS AT RAMS- The Rams have won 3 straight against some decent teams. I don't think I should underestimate them anymore, and the Bills will have trouble moving the football across the country against a good Rams D. RAMS 21-17
CHARGERS AT RAIDERS- The Raiders aren't perfect and could have easily lost last week were it not for John Harbaugh's idiotic decisions, but that offense is serious. The Chargers, however, know exactly how to put point on the board against soft pass defenses. Hmmmmm. I still think the Raiders outscore them. RAIDERS 38-28
GIANTS AT PACKERS- The Giants have begun an offensive tailspin. Odell Beckham Jr. needs to get his head screwed on right and resume being the most talented athlete in the NFL. He probably won't do that this weekend though. PACKERS 28-21
BUCCANEERS AT PANTHERS- Cam Newton is integral to the Panthers more than nearly all other QBs are to their respective teams in the league. He will not play this weekend. BUCCANEERS 24-10
THIS PROMISES TO BE QUITE A SHOWDOWN BETWEEN TWO TEAMS STRUGGLING TO FIND THEIR IDENTITIES. THE REDSKINS AREN'T SIMPLY GOING TO LAY DOWN FOR THE RAVENS, BUT THE RAVENS HAVE FOUND WAYS TO PULL OUT CLOSE GAMES THIS SEASON. LET'S HOPE THEY LEAVE NO DOUBT WHO IS THE BETTER TEAM. (IT'S THE RAVENS)
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
The most obviously flawed Ravens unit is the offense. The offense has struggled so much in the first half of games that it seems miraculous when it eventually comes alive. When the Ravens DO ultimately begin to drive and put points on the board, we're reminded of just how many weapons they possess, and then it leaves fans scratching their heads as to how and why Baltimore tends sleepwalk through first halves.
The first major issue is the running game. The Ravens have not been consistently able to establish the run thus far this season, and only truly found success in the second half of last week's game against a Raiders run defense that sits at the bottom of the league. It's difficult to imagine that the Ravens don't have the personnel to run the football. Terrence West shows power, burst, and excellent lateral movement. When West was finally given an appropriate number of carries last week, he was able to post over 100 yards on the ground with a rushing touchdown. What was nearly as intriguing, however, was the return of Buck Allen to the field. Allen hadn't impressed in the preseason, but he also wasn't correctly used during that span. He was used as pass-catching back against the Raiders and showed off the same ability to make defenders miss that he displayed for much of last season. What many can't figure out is why both of these backs weren't used more often and effectively through the first 3 games.
Marc Trestman isn't known as an offensive coordinator who loves to run the football--quite the opposite. He loves to pass, but he does have a tendency to set up passes to running backs. That worked in Buck Allen's favor last year, but the return of Justin Forsett bumped a more dynamic, younger Allen down the depth chart. With Forsett gone, however, and the return of the sensationally explosive Kenneth Dixon, the Ravens now have 3 running backs with different, complimentary running styles, and each one is capable of being a premier back.
It will be interesting to see how carries are distributed between those three backs going forward, but one thing is for sure: Marc Trestman MUST establish the run early and stick with it to take pressure off of Joe. Flacco's completion percentage is over 70% when he receives solid protection, but it falls near 40% when he's running for his life or forced to get rid of the ball under duress. The offensive line, especially with its starting left tackle out, is incapable of consistently protecting Joe if he is forced to throw the football as much as he has thus far. Even with Ronnie Stanley protecting Joe's blindside, the offense hasn't exactly broken records when Flacco throws the ball on an overwhelming number of snaps.
The Ravens likely won't have their starting left tackle on Sunday, but hopefully Trestman now fully grasps the importance of the Ravens running game as they'll face a Redskins defense that ranks 29th in the league against the run. The Redskins, despite their off season acquisition of Josh Norman, still rank 26th in the league against the pass as well. If the Ravens aren't able to move the football at home against the Skins, this could be a long, depressing season. After finding their rhythm late to the tune of 27 points last week against the Raiders last week, I have a hard time believing the Ravens won't find offensive success on Sunday, but the question that remains is how much success will they find, and will it be enough to outscore the Redskins?
After a rough 0-2 start to their season, the Redskins have won their last two games against similar opponents to those faced by the Ravens thus far. Kirk Cousins has put up elite yardage through the air thus far, and his offense ranks 8th in the league. The production of the Redskins offense comes mostly from their 6th ranked pass offense. The Redskins have a middling ground game which ranks 18th in the league and will likely struggle against an elite Ravens run defense. That may not matter though as the Raiders didn't find success on the ground against the Ravens and still put the ball in the endzone four times. Kirk Cousins has only won 13 games of 30 games as a starter, but he led his team to the playoffs last year, and certainly appears to have come on as of late.
One might think that the Ravens, with one of the highest ranked secondaries in the league, would not be tremendously vulnerable to the pass offense of a 2-2 Redskins team, but it's not the strength of the secondary that should worry Ravens fans; it's the sheer amount of time they spend on the field that is cause for alarm. The Ravens offense punted on 5 of it's 6 first offensive series last week against the Raiders, and that meant that the Ravens defense was on the field far too often. The Ravens actually held the Raiders to under 270 yards of total offense, but Joe Flacco's strip-sack fumble and blown coverage on a punt return gave the Raiders two short fields with which they were able to score two of their 4 touchdowns. If not for mistakes by the Ravens offense and special teams, that game may not have even been close.
More troubling than the 2 touchdowns the Ravens allowed on short fields was the Raiders final touchdown drive with only a few minutes left in the game. Ravens defensive coordinator Dean Pees called for his signature prevent defense which ritualistically allows opposing teams to drive quickly down field. The only team not to be able to drive on the Ravens defense late in games this season thus far was the Buffalo Bills. The Raiders, Jaguars, and Browns all worked methodically and seemingly unimpeded downfield within the last 4-5 minutes, but late interceptions doomed the efforts of both the Browns and Jaguars. Rather than counting on game-sealing turnovers, the Ravens have to focus on getting pressure on quarterbacks late. Only rushing 4 and dropping everyone else into pass coverage has not worked well during Dean Pees' tenure as defensive coordinator in Baltimore. One would assume he'd have figured that out by now and tried a different approach, but we've had no such luck. That same soft prevent defense was exactly what doomed the Ravens the last time they faced Kirk Cousins and the Redskins in 2012. The Ravens went on to win the Super Bowl, but their inability to stop Cousins from driving with almost no time remaining was ultimately what lost them the game.
The Ravens defense, though ranked first in the league, has one glaring weakness in personnel. Shareece Wright has been absolutely abused through the first quarter of the season with 5 touchdowns allowed in 4 games. Pees would be wise to replace Wright with Will Davis who looked fantastic in the pre-season and during his brief action last season before his injury. It seems as though anyone would be better than Wright at this point, and opposing quarterbacks know to pick on him. Jimmy Smith may never again be a shutdown corner, but he has been strong enough to limit a handful of elite receivers this season. Eric Weddle is rated as the top safety in the league by Pro Football Focus, and that's probably the biggest difference between this season's pass defense and that of 2015. Baltmiore's defense ranks in the top 5 in least number of trips to the redzone, but they rank dead last in the league in points allowed once an opposing team enters the redzone. It's clear that problem won't be fixed until Wright is replaced.
Baltimore has only so many opportunities to face teams with poorly ranked defenses this season before their schedule gets significantly tougher. Marc Trestman needs to figure out how to use the offensive weapons at his disposal in a hurry because the Eagles and Patriots defensive units won't be nearly as forgiving. The easiest way to make the defense more effective is to keep it off the field as much as possible. The Ravens offense needs to be able to sustain and finish drives, and they should find more success with a balanced offensive attack that features plenty of carries for Terrence West and Kenneth Dixon, as well as plenty of passes out of the backfield to Buck Allen. Joe Flacco found the most success last week passing to the Ravens' toughest pass catchers in Crockett Gilmore, Steve Smith Sr., and Kyle Juszczyk as all three athletes offer great yards after the catch. Dennis Pitta should once again find himself open with much emphasis placed on stopping the Ravens speedier threats, and we should expect whoever isn't being covered by Josh Norman to make some explosive plays downfield.
This Ravens team has lots of room for improvement, but the weapons are there and just need to be connected with and utilized correctly. A solid win of 10+ points would go a long way to re-establishing the Ravens as an AFC contender. A narrow victory would be acceptable, but it would still leave many fans worried about upcoming opponents. A loss...well a loss would mean this organization has lost the ability to coach effectively. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
THE PICKS
PATRIOTS AT BROWNS- This Patriot defense will give Tom Brady enough opportunities to score 40+ points this weekend. We'll see if he needs to knock off much rust, but I doubt it. If they won 3 our of 4 without Brady, they'll be a force with him. PATRIOTS 42-10
EAGLES AT LIONS- The Eagles are probably the best team in the NFC, and that's bad news for a mediocre Lions team. EAGLES 33-20
BEARS AT COLTS- When two teams are this bad, I tend to just go with the team enjoying homefield advantage. In this case, that's the Colts. COLTS 23-17
TITANS AT DOLPHINS- The Titans won't be able to score enough on the Dolphins defense to win this game. DOLPHINS 20-13
REDSKINS AT RAVENS- The Ravens, with the exception of last year's injury riddled team, seldom drop two games in a row and they seldom do so at home. The Redskins have a capable QB who has put up a lot of yards this season, but their defensive line doesn't have enough muscle to stop the Ravens run or get legitimate, consistent pressure on Flacco. This is the game the Ravens get the offense going with the return of Kenneth Dixon. RAVENS 30-24
TEXANS AT VIKINGS- The Vikings may struggle a bit more to move the football without Stefon Diggs, but their defense won't give Houston much room to breathe. VIKINGS 23-14
JETS AT STEELERS- If the Steelers play anything like they did last week, the Jets don't have a prayer of winning this game. Antonio Brown will make Revis look like an old fool. STEELERS 35-21
FALCONS AT BRONCOS- This is actually my game of the week to watch. The Falcons have been so electric thus far that I'm incredibly curious to see if they can be that way against a serious defense. The Broncos have had a habit of making elite NFC offenses look pedestrian in the mile high city. Just for the fun of it, I'm going to predict an upset here. FALCONS 27-24
BENGALS AT COWBOYS- The Bengals aren't awful, but until Tyler Eifert returns, they're just not a good enough team to win on the road against a serious contender. The Cowboys should make this fun to watch. Pound that rock, boys. P.S. I've started rooting for Dak because I hate Tony Romo so much and want him to be forced to sit when he's healthy. COWBOYS 31-23
BILLS AT RAMS- The Rams have won 3 straight against some decent teams. I don't think I should underestimate them anymore, and the Bills will have trouble moving the football across the country against a good Rams D. RAMS 21-17
CHARGERS AT RAIDERS- The Raiders aren't perfect and could have easily lost last week were it not for John Harbaugh's idiotic decisions, but that offense is serious. The Chargers, however, know exactly how to put point on the board against soft pass defenses. Hmmmmm. I still think the Raiders outscore them. RAIDERS 38-28
GIANTS AT PACKERS- The Giants have begun an offensive tailspin. Odell Beckham Jr. needs to get his head screwed on right and resume being the most talented athlete in the NFL. He probably won't do that this weekend though. PACKERS 28-21
BUCCANEERS AT PANTHERS- Cam Newton is integral to the Panthers more than nearly all other QBs are to their respective teams in the league. He will not play this weekend. BUCCANEERS 24-10
THIS PROMISES TO BE QUITE A SHOWDOWN BETWEEN TWO TEAMS STRUGGLING TO FIND THEIR IDENTITIES. THE REDSKINS AREN'T SIMPLY GOING TO LAY DOWN FOR THE RAVENS, BUT THE RAVENS HAVE FOUND WAYS TO PULL OUT CLOSE GAMES THIS SEASON. LET'S HOPE THEY LEAVE NO DOUBT WHO IS THE BETTER TEAM. (IT'S THE RAVENS)
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Saturday, October 1, 2016
WEEK 4 NFL PICKS AND RAVENS ANALYSIS
The Raiders beat the Tennessee Titans 17-10 last week. Their defense is ranked dead last in the NFL, and they've had to lean heavily on an offense whose 2nd place ranking is based largely on two early games against NFC South teams with almost no defense to speak of in the Saints and Falcons. Oakland has, nevertheless, produced enough offense to win 2 of their first 3 games despite an atrocious Raiders defense. The Ravens are narrowly favored to beat Oakland at home on Sunday, but something on the injury report undoubtedly makes observant Ravens fans wary of this matchup.
Ronnie Stanley prides himself for his durability and insists it takes something serious to cause him to actually miss a game. Stanley, however, hasn't practiced this week and was in a walking boot through Wednesday. The assumption is that both Ronnie Stanley and starting left guard, Alex Lewis, will not play this weekend. Lewis suffered a concussion last week and has yet to pass concussion protocol in order to be cleared to play. The Ravens have fully capable backups at left guard in Ryan Jensen and John Urshel, but the idea of James Hurst once again taking the field as Joe Flacco's blindside tackle conjures up images of Hurst being bulldozed into the side of Flacco's knee. There is the possibility that the Ravens could heavily shuffle the offensive line to put the most competent athletes on each end. It's conceivable that the Ravens could put Marshal Yanda at right tackle, Ryan Jensen at right guard, Jeremy Zuttah at center, John Urshel at left guard, and Rick Wagner at left tackle. While that may put the best 5 available linemen on the field, it also puts too many pieces out of position and could open the possibility of major mental errors.
The all-rookie left side of the Ravens offensive line has performed shakily at times over the last two weeks, so maybe it's possible that a line full of veterans would perform better, right? Anything is possible, but one dangerous Raider may take full advantage of a an injured, shuffled Ravens offensive line: Khalil Mack. Mack has yet to record a sack this season, but he has faced far more mobile quarterbacks during weeks 1 through 3 in Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Marcus Mariota. Joe Flacco isn't the least mobile quarterback in the NFL, but he has taken a lot of hits this season because of his insistence on standing in the pocket and holding on to the football. The Ravens would ordinarily take pressure off of Flacco with a strong rushing attack, but they've failed to get anything going on the ground consistently thus far due to what appear to be largely schematic issues. If there was ever a time to get Baltimore's quick passing game going, it would be this Sunday.
There are still great reasons for Ravens fans to be hopeful going into Sunday's game. The first is the return of Elvis Dumervil to strengthen what is already the second ranked defense in the league, and it's a very close second. Dumervil's speed will be particularly useful when containing and pursuing Derek Carr on third downs. The Ravens have already gone up against and stifled elite receivers such as Allen Hurns and Sammy Watkins. They're now charged with the task of containing Amari Cooper. Cooper burned the Ravens last season, but that was a Ravens defense that featured inept safeties and an incomplete pass rush. Terrell Suggs is back in his old, disruptive form, Eric Weddle has taken charge of and solidified a secondary that had struggled miserably for the past two seasons, Brandon Williams and Timmy Jernigan have been absolutely fierce up front, and C.J. Mosley and Zachary Orr have combined to make the most complete pair of Ravens inside linebackers in years. The Ravens have dramatically more talent and depth at cornerback than they have for the past two seasons--so much so that one of their most talented corners Will Davis hasn't even seen the field yet.
Baltimore's defense should give its offense plenty of opportunities to get something started against a Raiders defense that allowed an average of 34.5 points through the first two weeks of the season. Marc Trestman must call plays to get the ball out of Joe's hands and into the hands of his targets as rapidly as possible. This means well-executed screen passes to the likes of Perriman, Wallace, and Moore, as well as short and intermediate routes to Pitta and Smith Sr. Getting a rhythm going in the quick passing game should help to neutralize a pass rush and hopefully open up running lanes for Terrence West. West, by the way, should be the only running back touching the football. Justin Forsett sadly no longer possesses the burst and power to make defenders miss or breaks tackles. Flacco was able to establish a quick passing rhythm last week against a far more talented Jaguars pass defense, so I have faith they'll be able to do so against the Raiders. It is, however, important that they find ways to finish drives. The Ravens have scored a disturbingly low number of offensive touchdowns thus far, which is a testament to the strength of their defense, but they can't keep up that pace and expect to beat winning teams.
If the Ravens are able to beat the Raiders in Baltimore on Sunday, they'll likely need to keep up their pace of turnovers and quarterback pressure. The Ravens already have as many interceptions through three games as they did all last season, and they'll likely need at least two timely interceptions to halt the rhythm of Derek Carr and his talented young receiving corps. A win over the 2-1 Raiders would also begin to lend credibility to the Ravens impressive start. It seems to matter not in the minds of many commentators and writers that the Ravens are 3-0 despite already having played two games on the road. They insist that a large reason the Ravens remain unbeaten is the weak list of opponents they've faced thus far. Strength of schedule undoubtedly played a role in their current record, but every team faces mediocre competition over the course of a season, and even teams regarded as not being good still have the capacity to upset elite teams at any point. The Jaguars, for example, only narrowly lost to the Packers 27-23, and Buffalo just finished destroying the Cardinals 33-18. Wins are incredibly difficult to achieve in the NFL, and the bad teams are never nearly as bad as you might believe them to be.
The NFL may be filled with upsets and parity on any given weekend, but the Ravens need to start finding ways to utilize their array of dynamic offensive weapons and win by more than a single score. This Raiders team offers a great chance to do exactly that and earn greater respect from doubters across the country. The potential for this team is extremely high because of a ferocious defense, fantastic special teams units, and offensive weapons with explosive capability, but they'll need all three phases to produce in order to beat the likes of the Patriots, Eagles, and Steelers. Fortunately for John Harbaugh and company, the Ravens' fast start has meant losing a game or two here and there won't absolutely destroy their hopes of making the post season. Doing damage once they get INTO the post season, however, will require that they simply get better at running the football, protecting Flacco, and finishing drives. Hopefully we'll feel better about their ability to do all three of those things after this weekend.
WEEK 4 NFL PICKS
COLTS AT JAGUARS- The Colts have been perplexingly bad, and Andrew Luck's talent no longer seems nearly enough to carry them to exciting wins. The Jaguars have had a rough start to their year, but they've faced two Super Bowl MVPs already. They'll finally manage a win here. JAGUARS 27-23
TITANS AT TEXANS- Neither of these teams is particularly impressive. My gut tells me this could be an upset, but my rule of thumb is to go with the home team in situations such as this. TEXANS 20-14
BROWNS AT REDSKINS- These teams suffer from many of the same issues year after year. Both organizations have had no idea how to build a program for years despite having some extremely talented players on their rosters. Both have had a seemingly endless carousel of quarterbacks and head coaches, but at least the Redskins made it to the playoffs a couple of times in the last 5 years. The Browns played a hard-fought game against the Dolphins last week but ended up losing in overtime. The Redskins, on the other hand, finally found their way into the win column against a formidable Giants team. The Redskins should beat the Browns at home. REDSKINS 31-20
SEAHAWKS AT THE JETS- Russell Wilson plans to play this weekend, but he'll likely be far less mobile, and it's his mobility that makes him successful. Ryan Fitzpatrick should bounce back from an embarrassing 6 interception performance, and his targets should find some success against even an impressive Seattle secondary. Home-field advantage should help the Jets tremendously in this one, but this should be a battle. JETS 23-20
BILLS AT PATRIOTS- I can't see how the Bills will be able to move against one of the best defenses in the NFL...in Foxboro...without Sammy Watkins. The Patriots quarterback options for this week are both dealing with injuries, but I have a feeling we'll see Jimmy Garoppolo tough it out after a week of rest. No question that I'd like to see the Patriots drop one here before Brady gets back, but their defense has simply proven too strong thus far. I would LOVE to be wrong about this one. PATRIOTS 33-17
PANTHERS AT FALCONS- The Panthers defense has been solid thus far, but their offense has mysteriously vanished in 2 of their first 3 games. The Falcons offense, on the other hand, has taken off for the first time since Tony Gonzalez retired. The Falcons scored an average of 40 points per game in the last two weeks on the road, and they should be riding some serious momentum as they return home. FALCONS 35-28
RAIDERS AT RAVENS- The Ravens are not the only ones with offensive line issues. The Raiders will be missing not only their starting right tackle but also their backup right tackle when they take the first in Baltimore tomorrow. Elvis Dumervil should absolutely feast on that side. The Raiders ultimately don't have the type of defense to stop even an inconsistent Ravens offense in Baltimore. The Raiders offense was held to only 17 points on the road by the Titans last week and the Ravens defense is vastly superior to that of Tennessee. This still won't make Ravens fans comfortable, but a win will ultimately make them happy. RAVENS 27-21
LIONS AT BEARS- There is absolutely nothing about the Bears that would convince me they could win this game. LIONS 38-19
BRONCOS AT BUCCANEERS- I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Bucs pull an upset here, but the Broncos defense travels well to low altitudes, and Siemian is performing better than any quarterback has for Denver in the past two seasons. BRONCOS 30-28
RAMS AT CARDINALS- The Cardinals haven't been what I thought they'd be thus far, but they're still better than the Rams. CARDINALS 23-14
SAINTS AT CHARGERS- The Saints will have trouble stopping Philip Rivers 3000 miles from the bayou. CHARGERS 42-35
COWBOYS AT 49ERS- The 49ers will struggle against a powerful Cowboys offensive line. The 49ers defense is one of the very worst in the NFL and has been absolutely blasted for the past two weeks. COWBOYS 34-21
CHIEFS AT STEELERS- The Steelers defense is banged up and the Chiefs are rolling, but I'm betting on Ben Roethlisberger having a bounce-back week at home. STEELERS 27-20
GIANTS AT VIKINGS- The Vikings defense has dominated a pair of playoff teams from last season, and it should be able to do just enough to stop the Giants. I have no idea how a team with this many key injuries is undefeated, but I have to give major credit to their coaching staff for rolling with the punches to a 3-0 record. VIKINGS 24-21
THIS SHOULD BE A GREAT WEEK TO UNLEASH THE OFFENSIVE WEAPONS THE RAVENS HAVE STOCKPILED THIS OFF SEASON. BALTIMORE IS FACING THE NFL'S WORST DEFENSE AT HOME, AND THE RAVENS DEFENSE IS HEALTHY AND READY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF WEAKNESSES ON THE RAIDERS OFFENSIVE LINE.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
Ronnie Stanley prides himself for his durability and insists it takes something serious to cause him to actually miss a game. Stanley, however, hasn't practiced this week and was in a walking boot through Wednesday. The assumption is that both Ronnie Stanley and starting left guard, Alex Lewis, will not play this weekend. Lewis suffered a concussion last week and has yet to pass concussion protocol in order to be cleared to play. The Ravens have fully capable backups at left guard in Ryan Jensen and John Urshel, but the idea of James Hurst once again taking the field as Joe Flacco's blindside tackle conjures up images of Hurst being bulldozed into the side of Flacco's knee. There is the possibility that the Ravens could heavily shuffle the offensive line to put the most competent athletes on each end. It's conceivable that the Ravens could put Marshal Yanda at right tackle, Ryan Jensen at right guard, Jeremy Zuttah at center, John Urshel at left guard, and Rick Wagner at left tackle. While that may put the best 5 available linemen on the field, it also puts too many pieces out of position and could open the possibility of major mental errors.
The all-rookie left side of the Ravens offensive line has performed shakily at times over the last two weeks, so maybe it's possible that a line full of veterans would perform better, right? Anything is possible, but one dangerous Raider may take full advantage of a an injured, shuffled Ravens offensive line: Khalil Mack. Mack has yet to record a sack this season, but he has faced far more mobile quarterbacks during weeks 1 through 3 in Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Marcus Mariota. Joe Flacco isn't the least mobile quarterback in the NFL, but he has taken a lot of hits this season because of his insistence on standing in the pocket and holding on to the football. The Ravens would ordinarily take pressure off of Flacco with a strong rushing attack, but they've failed to get anything going on the ground consistently thus far due to what appear to be largely schematic issues. If there was ever a time to get Baltimore's quick passing game going, it would be this Sunday.
There are still great reasons for Ravens fans to be hopeful going into Sunday's game. The first is the return of Elvis Dumervil to strengthen what is already the second ranked defense in the league, and it's a very close second. Dumervil's speed will be particularly useful when containing and pursuing Derek Carr on third downs. The Ravens have already gone up against and stifled elite receivers such as Allen Hurns and Sammy Watkins. They're now charged with the task of containing Amari Cooper. Cooper burned the Ravens last season, but that was a Ravens defense that featured inept safeties and an incomplete pass rush. Terrell Suggs is back in his old, disruptive form, Eric Weddle has taken charge of and solidified a secondary that had struggled miserably for the past two seasons, Brandon Williams and Timmy Jernigan have been absolutely fierce up front, and C.J. Mosley and Zachary Orr have combined to make the most complete pair of Ravens inside linebackers in years. The Ravens have dramatically more talent and depth at cornerback than they have for the past two seasons--so much so that one of their most talented corners Will Davis hasn't even seen the field yet.
Baltimore's defense should give its offense plenty of opportunities to get something started against a Raiders defense that allowed an average of 34.5 points through the first two weeks of the season. Marc Trestman must call plays to get the ball out of Joe's hands and into the hands of his targets as rapidly as possible. This means well-executed screen passes to the likes of Perriman, Wallace, and Moore, as well as short and intermediate routes to Pitta and Smith Sr. Getting a rhythm going in the quick passing game should help to neutralize a pass rush and hopefully open up running lanes for Terrence West. West, by the way, should be the only running back touching the football. Justin Forsett sadly no longer possesses the burst and power to make defenders miss or breaks tackles. Flacco was able to establish a quick passing rhythm last week against a far more talented Jaguars pass defense, so I have faith they'll be able to do so against the Raiders. It is, however, important that they find ways to finish drives. The Ravens have scored a disturbingly low number of offensive touchdowns thus far, which is a testament to the strength of their defense, but they can't keep up that pace and expect to beat winning teams.
If the Ravens are able to beat the Raiders in Baltimore on Sunday, they'll likely need to keep up their pace of turnovers and quarterback pressure. The Ravens already have as many interceptions through three games as they did all last season, and they'll likely need at least two timely interceptions to halt the rhythm of Derek Carr and his talented young receiving corps. A win over the 2-1 Raiders would also begin to lend credibility to the Ravens impressive start. It seems to matter not in the minds of many commentators and writers that the Ravens are 3-0 despite already having played two games on the road. They insist that a large reason the Ravens remain unbeaten is the weak list of opponents they've faced thus far. Strength of schedule undoubtedly played a role in their current record, but every team faces mediocre competition over the course of a season, and even teams regarded as not being good still have the capacity to upset elite teams at any point. The Jaguars, for example, only narrowly lost to the Packers 27-23, and Buffalo just finished destroying the Cardinals 33-18. Wins are incredibly difficult to achieve in the NFL, and the bad teams are never nearly as bad as you might believe them to be.
The NFL may be filled with upsets and parity on any given weekend, but the Ravens need to start finding ways to utilize their array of dynamic offensive weapons and win by more than a single score. This Raiders team offers a great chance to do exactly that and earn greater respect from doubters across the country. The potential for this team is extremely high because of a ferocious defense, fantastic special teams units, and offensive weapons with explosive capability, but they'll need all three phases to produce in order to beat the likes of the Patriots, Eagles, and Steelers. Fortunately for John Harbaugh and company, the Ravens' fast start has meant losing a game or two here and there won't absolutely destroy their hopes of making the post season. Doing damage once they get INTO the post season, however, will require that they simply get better at running the football, protecting Flacco, and finishing drives. Hopefully we'll feel better about their ability to do all three of those things after this weekend.
WEEK 4 NFL PICKS
COLTS AT JAGUARS- The Colts have been perplexingly bad, and Andrew Luck's talent no longer seems nearly enough to carry them to exciting wins. The Jaguars have had a rough start to their year, but they've faced two Super Bowl MVPs already. They'll finally manage a win here. JAGUARS 27-23
TITANS AT TEXANS- Neither of these teams is particularly impressive. My gut tells me this could be an upset, but my rule of thumb is to go with the home team in situations such as this. TEXANS 20-14
BROWNS AT REDSKINS- These teams suffer from many of the same issues year after year. Both organizations have had no idea how to build a program for years despite having some extremely talented players on their rosters. Both have had a seemingly endless carousel of quarterbacks and head coaches, but at least the Redskins made it to the playoffs a couple of times in the last 5 years. The Browns played a hard-fought game against the Dolphins last week but ended up losing in overtime. The Redskins, on the other hand, finally found their way into the win column against a formidable Giants team. The Redskins should beat the Browns at home. REDSKINS 31-20
SEAHAWKS AT THE JETS- Russell Wilson plans to play this weekend, but he'll likely be far less mobile, and it's his mobility that makes him successful. Ryan Fitzpatrick should bounce back from an embarrassing 6 interception performance, and his targets should find some success against even an impressive Seattle secondary. Home-field advantage should help the Jets tremendously in this one, but this should be a battle. JETS 23-20
BILLS AT PATRIOTS- I can't see how the Bills will be able to move against one of the best defenses in the NFL...in Foxboro...without Sammy Watkins. The Patriots quarterback options for this week are both dealing with injuries, but I have a feeling we'll see Jimmy Garoppolo tough it out after a week of rest. No question that I'd like to see the Patriots drop one here before Brady gets back, but their defense has simply proven too strong thus far. I would LOVE to be wrong about this one. PATRIOTS 33-17
PANTHERS AT FALCONS- The Panthers defense has been solid thus far, but their offense has mysteriously vanished in 2 of their first 3 games. The Falcons offense, on the other hand, has taken off for the first time since Tony Gonzalez retired. The Falcons scored an average of 40 points per game in the last two weeks on the road, and they should be riding some serious momentum as they return home. FALCONS 35-28
RAIDERS AT RAVENS- The Ravens are not the only ones with offensive line issues. The Raiders will be missing not only their starting right tackle but also their backup right tackle when they take the first in Baltimore tomorrow. Elvis Dumervil should absolutely feast on that side. The Raiders ultimately don't have the type of defense to stop even an inconsistent Ravens offense in Baltimore. The Raiders offense was held to only 17 points on the road by the Titans last week and the Ravens defense is vastly superior to that of Tennessee. This still won't make Ravens fans comfortable, but a win will ultimately make them happy. RAVENS 27-21
LIONS AT BEARS- There is absolutely nothing about the Bears that would convince me they could win this game. LIONS 38-19
BRONCOS AT BUCCANEERS- I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Bucs pull an upset here, but the Broncos defense travels well to low altitudes, and Siemian is performing better than any quarterback has for Denver in the past two seasons. BRONCOS 30-28
RAMS AT CARDINALS- The Cardinals haven't been what I thought they'd be thus far, but they're still better than the Rams. CARDINALS 23-14
SAINTS AT CHARGERS- The Saints will have trouble stopping Philip Rivers 3000 miles from the bayou. CHARGERS 42-35
COWBOYS AT 49ERS- The 49ers will struggle against a powerful Cowboys offensive line. The 49ers defense is one of the very worst in the NFL and has been absolutely blasted for the past two weeks. COWBOYS 34-21
CHIEFS AT STEELERS- The Steelers defense is banged up and the Chiefs are rolling, but I'm betting on Ben Roethlisberger having a bounce-back week at home. STEELERS 27-20
GIANTS AT VIKINGS- The Vikings defense has dominated a pair of playoff teams from last season, and it should be able to do just enough to stop the Giants. I have no idea how a team with this many key injuries is undefeated, but I have to give major credit to their coaching staff for rolling with the punches to a 3-0 record. VIKINGS 24-21
THIS SHOULD BE A GREAT WEEK TO UNLEASH THE OFFENSIVE WEAPONS THE RAVENS HAVE STOCKPILED THIS OFF SEASON. BALTIMORE IS FACING THE NFL'S WORST DEFENSE AT HOME, AND THE RAVENS DEFENSE IS HEALTHY AND READY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF WEAKNESSES ON THE RAIDERS OFFENSIVE LINE.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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