Last week's loss to the Raiders, though heartbreaking for Baltimore, was probably necessary for the Ravens' success this season--if the season is ultimately going to be a success. Wins are so hard to come by in the NFL, especially road wins, that a team is happy to come away victorious regardless of the score. It's not that the Ravens don't realize there are issues in literally every phase of their game, but being undefeated can certainly lead a coaching staff to believe that whatever deficiencies they possess are not enough to cause them to lose. It is only when a team is confronted with a loss that players and staff are truly forced to evaluate their weaknesses in depth.
The most obviously flawed Ravens unit is the offense. The offense has struggled so much in the first half of games that it seems miraculous when it eventually comes alive. When the Ravens DO ultimately begin to drive and put points on the board, we're reminded of just how many weapons they possess, and then it leaves fans scratching their heads as to how and why Baltimore tends sleepwalk through first halves.
The first major issue is the running game. The Ravens have not been consistently able to establish the run thus far this season, and only truly found success in the second half of last week's game against a Raiders run defense that sits at the bottom of the league. It's difficult to imagine that the Ravens don't have the personnel to run the football. Terrence West shows power, burst, and excellent lateral movement. When West was finally given an appropriate number of carries last week, he was able to post over 100 yards on the ground with a rushing touchdown. What was nearly as intriguing, however, was the return of Buck Allen to the field. Allen hadn't impressed in the preseason, but he also wasn't correctly used during that span. He was used as pass-catching back against the Raiders and showed off the same ability to make defenders miss that he displayed for much of last season. What many can't figure out is why both of these backs weren't used more often and effectively through the first 3 games.
Marc Trestman isn't known as an offensive coordinator who loves to run the football--quite the opposite. He loves to pass, but he does have a tendency to set up passes to running backs. That worked in Buck Allen's favor last year, but the return of Justin Forsett bumped a more dynamic, younger Allen down the depth chart. With Forsett gone, however, and the return of the sensationally explosive Kenneth Dixon, the Ravens now have 3 running backs with different, complimentary running styles, and each one is capable of being a premier back.
It will be interesting to see how carries are distributed between those three backs going forward, but one thing is for sure: Marc Trestman MUST establish the run early and stick with it to take pressure off of Joe. Flacco's completion percentage is over 70% when he receives solid protection, but it falls near 40% when he's running for his life or forced to get rid of the ball under duress. The offensive line, especially with its starting left tackle out, is incapable of consistently protecting Joe if he is forced to throw the football as much as he has thus far. Even with Ronnie Stanley protecting Joe's blindside, the offense hasn't exactly broken records when Flacco throws the ball on an overwhelming number of snaps.
The Ravens likely won't have their starting left tackle on Sunday, but hopefully Trestman now fully grasps the importance of the Ravens running game as they'll face a Redskins defense that ranks 29th in the league against the run. The Redskins, despite their off season acquisition of Josh Norman, still rank 26th in the league against the pass as well. If the Ravens aren't able to move the football at home against the Skins, this could be a long, depressing season. After finding their rhythm late to the tune of 27 points last week against the Raiders last week, I have a hard time believing the Ravens won't find offensive success on Sunday, but the question that remains is how much success will they find, and will it be enough to outscore the Redskins?
After a rough 0-2 start to their season, the Redskins have won their last two games against similar opponents to those faced by the Ravens thus far. Kirk Cousins has put up elite yardage through the air thus far, and his offense ranks 8th in the league. The production of the Redskins offense comes mostly from their 6th ranked pass offense. The Redskins have a middling ground game which ranks 18th in the league and will likely struggle against an elite Ravens run defense. That may not matter though as the Raiders didn't find success on the ground against the Ravens and still put the ball in the endzone four times. Kirk Cousins has only won 13 games of 30 games as a starter, but he led his team to the playoffs last year, and certainly appears to have come on as of late.
One might think that the Ravens, with one of the highest ranked secondaries in the league, would not be tremendously vulnerable to the pass offense of a 2-2 Redskins team, but it's not the strength of the secondary that should worry Ravens fans; it's the sheer amount of time they spend on the field that is cause for alarm. The Ravens offense punted on 5 of it's 6 first offensive series last week against the Raiders, and that meant that the Ravens defense was on the field far too often. The Ravens actually held the Raiders to under 270 yards of total offense, but Joe Flacco's strip-sack fumble and blown coverage on a punt return gave the Raiders two short fields with which they were able to score two of their 4 touchdowns. If not for mistakes by the Ravens offense and special teams, that game may not have even been close.
More troubling than the 2 touchdowns the Ravens allowed on short fields was the Raiders final touchdown drive with only a few minutes left in the game. Ravens defensive coordinator Dean Pees called for his signature prevent defense which ritualistically allows opposing teams to drive quickly down field. The only team not to be able to drive on the Ravens defense late in games this season thus far was the Buffalo Bills. The Raiders, Jaguars, and Browns all worked methodically and seemingly unimpeded downfield within the last 4-5 minutes, but late interceptions doomed the efforts of both the Browns and Jaguars. Rather than counting on game-sealing turnovers, the Ravens have to focus on getting pressure on quarterbacks late. Only rushing 4 and dropping everyone else into pass coverage has not worked well during Dean Pees' tenure as defensive coordinator in Baltimore. One would assume he'd have figured that out by now and tried a different approach, but we've had no such luck. That same soft prevent defense was exactly what doomed the Ravens the last time they faced Kirk Cousins and the Redskins in 2012. The Ravens went on to win the Super Bowl, but their inability to stop Cousins from driving with almost no time remaining was ultimately what lost them the game.
The Ravens defense, though ranked first in the league, has one glaring weakness in personnel. Shareece Wright has been absolutely abused through the first quarter of the season with 5 touchdowns allowed in 4 games. Pees would be wise to replace Wright with Will Davis who looked fantastic in the pre-season and during his brief action last season before his injury. It seems as though anyone would be better than Wright at this point, and opposing quarterbacks know to pick on him. Jimmy Smith may never again be a shutdown corner, but he has been strong enough to limit a handful of elite receivers this season. Eric Weddle is rated as the top safety in the league by Pro Football Focus, and that's probably the biggest difference between this season's pass defense and that of 2015. Baltmiore's defense ranks in the top 5 in least number of trips to the redzone, but they rank dead last in the league in points allowed once an opposing team enters the redzone. It's clear that problem won't be fixed until Wright is replaced.
Baltimore has only so many opportunities to face teams with poorly ranked defenses this season before their schedule gets significantly tougher. Marc Trestman needs to figure out how to use the offensive weapons at his disposal in a hurry because the Eagles and Patriots defensive units won't be nearly as forgiving. The easiest way to make the defense more effective is to keep it off the field as much as possible. The Ravens offense needs to be able to sustain and finish drives, and they should find more success with a balanced offensive attack that features plenty of carries for Terrence West and Kenneth Dixon, as well as plenty of passes out of the backfield to Buck Allen. Joe Flacco found the most success last week passing to the Ravens' toughest pass catchers in Crockett Gilmore, Steve Smith Sr., and Kyle Juszczyk as all three athletes offer great yards after the catch. Dennis Pitta should once again find himself open with much emphasis placed on stopping the Ravens speedier threats, and we should expect whoever isn't being covered by Josh Norman to make some explosive plays downfield.
This Ravens team has lots of room for improvement, but the weapons are there and just need to be connected with and utilized correctly. A solid win of 10+ points would go a long way to re-establishing the Ravens as an AFC contender. A narrow victory would be acceptable, but it would still leave many fans worried about upcoming opponents. A loss...well a loss would mean this organization has lost the ability to coach effectively. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
THE PICKS
PATRIOTS AT BROWNS- This Patriot defense will give Tom Brady enough opportunities to score 40+ points this weekend. We'll see if he needs to knock off much rust, but I doubt it. If they won 3 our of 4 without Brady, they'll be a force with him. PATRIOTS 42-10
EAGLES AT LIONS- The Eagles are probably the best team in the NFC, and that's bad news for a mediocre Lions team. EAGLES 33-20
BEARS AT COLTS- When two teams are this bad, I tend to just go with the team enjoying homefield advantage. In this case, that's the Colts. COLTS 23-17
TITANS AT DOLPHINS- The Titans won't be able to score enough on the Dolphins defense to win this game. DOLPHINS 20-13
REDSKINS AT RAVENS- The Ravens, with the exception of last year's injury riddled team, seldom drop two games in a row and they seldom do so at home. The Redskins have a capable QB who has put up a lot of yards this season, but their defensive line doesn't have enough muscle to stop the Ravens run or get legitimate, consistent pressure on Flacco. This is the game the Ravens get the offense going with the return of Kenneth Dixon. RAVENS 30-24
TEXANS AT VIKINGS- The Vikings may struggle a bit more to move the football without Stefon Diggs, but their defense won't give Houston much room to breathe. VIKINGS 23-14
JETS AT STEELERS- If the Steelers play anything like they did last week, the Jets don't have a prayer of winning this game. Antonio Brown will make Revis look like an old fool. STEELERS 35-21
FALCONS AT BRONCOS- This is actually my game of the week to watch. The Falcons have been so electric thus far that I'm incredibly curious to see if they can be that way against a serious defense. The Broncos have had a habit of making elite NFC offenses look pedestrian in the mile high city. Just for the fun of it, I'm going to predict an upset here. FALCONS 27-24
BENGALS AT COWBOYS- The Bengals aren't awful, but until Tyler Eifert returns, they're just not a good enough team to win on the road against a serious contender. The Cowboys should make this fun to watch. Pound that rock, boys. P.S. I've started rooting for Dak because I hate Tony Romo so much and want him to be forced to sit when he's healthy. COWBOYS 31-23
BILLS AT RAMS- The Rams have won 3 straight against some decent teams. I don't think I should underestimate them anymore, and the Bills will have trouble moving the football across the country against a good Rams D. RAMS 21-17
CHARGERS AT RAIDERS- The Raiders aren't perfect and could have easily lost last week were it not for John Harbaugh's idiotic decisions, but that offense is serious. The Chargers, however, know exactly how to put point on the board against soft pass defenses. Hmmmmm. I still think the Raiders outscore them. RAIDERS 38-28
GIANTS AT PACKERS- The Giants have begun an offensive tailspin. Odell Beckham Jr. needs to get his head screwed on right and resume being the most talented athlete in the NFL. He probably won't do that this weekend though. PACKERS 28-21
BUCCANEERS AT PANTHERS- Cam Newton is integral to the Panthers more than nearly all other QBs are to their respective teams in the league. He will not play this weekend. BUCCANEERS 24-10
THIS PROMISES TO BE QUITE A SHOWDOWN BETWEEN TWO TEAMS STRUGGLING TO FIND THEIR IDENTITIES. THE REDSKINS AREN'T SIMPLY GOING TO LAY DOWN FOR THE RAVENS, BUT THE RAVENS HAVE FOUND WAYS TO PULL OUT CLOSE GAMES THIS SEASON. LET'S HOPE THEY LEAVE NO DOUBT WHO IS THE BETTER TEAM. (IT'S THE RAVENS)
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
No comments:
Post a Comment