I haven't been particularly impressed with the Cardinals this season despite their excellent record. I found myself rooting for them last week both because much of my family lived in Arizona for decades and because Larry Fitzgerald deserves a shot at a Super Bowl ring. It's tough to say I'll be rooting TOO hard for them against the Carolina Panthers today, however, as Cam Newton has simply been impossible not to like. Newton has entered the realm of the elite quarterbacks this season with his 45 touchdowns (35 passing and 10 rushing) as well as his nearly 4,500 total yards from scrimmage (3,837 passing and 636 rushing). Newton threw 25 more touchdowns than he threw interceptions (10), and he averaged a whopping 4.8 yards per carry on the ground. He's got a cannon for an arm, and he simply wills his team to victory without the aid of a host of elite receivers. On top of all of that, Newton has come under fire all season for what critics have called excessive celebration. I find such allegations absolutely ridiculous. Football is a violent, exhausting sport. Players often emerge from a game feeling as though they had been in a serious car accident, so how can you blame a young guy if he wants to get the fans of his team excited after each win of a historically successful season for his comparatively young team. Football is big, it's brash, it's boisterous, and it's an American obsession. Big personalities are a huge reason this game is never dull from week to week. Cam isn't a dirty player, and he's not a notorious trash talker. There's nothing wrong with showing pride in your team. As a passionate head coach I once worked for told the kids on our team "if YOU can't get fired up when your team scores, YOU DON'T BELONG ON THE FIELD!".
One thing that the Panthers and Cardinals both possess is balance, and that's what should make this game entertaining to watch. Carson Palmer has experienced a resurgence in his career since he joined the Arizona Cardinals, and Bruce Arians has shown exactly what he can do when given the reins. The Cardinals possess the second ranked scoring offense, and their defense ranked 7th in the league in points allowed per game. The Panthers, on the other hand, boast the first ranked scoring offense and the 6th ranked defense in points allowed. Both teams can score, and both teams can play solid defense. The question remains, which team's offense will be able to outscore that of their opponent? Let's take a look.
CARDINALS AT PANTHERS
Before we analyze statistics, we must establish what kind of homefield advantage the Panthers typically enjoy and determine how the Cardinals typically fare on the road. That will narrow down which games from which we'll draw our statistical averages. In order to determine the Panthers' homefield advantage we must compare the average points scored and allowed on the road to the average points scored and allowed at home. If there is a substantially greater points differential at home than on the road, we'll be able to say with reasonable certainty that the Panthers have a significant homefield advantage.
The Panthers scored an average of 29.5 points and allowed an average of 21.5 points on the road this season for an average road differential of exactly 8 points. At home, however, the Panthers scored an average of 33 points and allowed an average of 17 points for an average home differential of a whopping 16 points--that's double the road differential! It's abundantly clear that the Panthers enjoy a sizable homefield advantage.
The Cardinals are no slouches on the road. They scored an average of 32.75 points and allowed an average of 18.75 points on the road for an average points differential of 14. The Cardinals, on paper at least, are nearly as dominant on the road as the Panthers are at home. There is, however, one major factor for which we must account when it comes to the Cardinals: Tyrann Mathieu. Mathieu was easily the Cardinals' best defender before he went down with a season-ending injury. The question that needs to be answered is whether or not his absence led to a statistical decline in Arizona's defensive production.
Mathieu played in 14 games this season which means there is only a small statistical sample size from which to derive statistics, and all three games since then have unfortunately occurred in Arizona. The Cardinals still only allowed 19.33 points per game since Mathieu went down, but defenses typically get a boost at home because of favorable crowd noise timing. It's also important to note that the first of those three games was against a Packers team missing 3 starting offensive lineman. When the Cardinals faced a healthier Packers team last week, the Packers scored 20 points on the vaunted Arizona defense IN Arizona before ultimately falling in overtime. A more accurate average would, therefore, be the 28 point per game the Cardinals allowed at home in their last two games. This, to me, demonstrates a significant statistical drop-off in defensive strength since the loss of Tyrann Mathieu, and it might mean serious trouble against the number one scoring offense in the NFL this evening.
PREDICTION
The Panthers absolutely ripped through the best defense in the NFL last week as they put up 31 points up on the Seahawks in the first half. Carolina then became offensively conservative in the second half with a run-out-the-clock strategy to simply protect the football and outlast Seattle. Had they wanted to play more aggressively, the Panthers likely could have come up with another score or two to put the game totally out of reach of Russell Wilson and company, but it simply didn't matter in the end. The Cardinals simply don't have the defensive power without Tyrann Mathieu to stop the Panthers offense. Cam Newton's mobility makes him difficult to sack. He uses his athleticism to extend passing plays and get first downs and even touchdowns with his legs. Ironically, the Seahawks were probably the only NFC team that had a legitimate shot at stopping the best team in the conference, and they fell short in their furious second-half push. I'll certainly be excited for Larry Fitzgerald if the Cardinals find a way to upset Cam and company, but there is absolutely nothing about what the Cardinals have done since Tyrann Mathieu's injury that would suggest they're capable of winning today. PANTHERS 33-23
STAY TUNED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS FOR EXTENDED DRAFT PROSPECT ANALYSIS AND EARLY THOUGHTS ON THE UPCOMING SUPER BOWL!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS! (GO GET HEALTHY)
Sunday, January 24, 2016
Saturday, January 23, 2016
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTION: PATRIOTS AT BRONCOS / BRADY VS. MANNING
The AFC Championship Game for the 2011 season was heartbreaking for me not only because the Ravens lost, but also because my dream of Ray Lewis going out on top as a Super Bowl champion appeared to be utterly dashed by the foot of a now-disgraced kicker. Even the following season I lost hope for a triumphant end to Ray Lewis' career when he tore through the triceps in his right arm. Ray Lewis, however, rose once again from the metaphorical ashes armed with a badass looking brace to set an NFL single post-season record with 51 tackles and hoisted his second and final Lombardi trophy in front of a purple confetti covered, artificial field. Ray was admittedly no longer physically the player he had been for the vast majority of his prolific career, but his leadership and will helped inspire and rally a talented roster around him to beat the odds on every step of that magical run. That season was absolutely saturated with Ravens miracles, and the memories of such a perfect last ride for Ray created a lasting feeling of satisfaction even three seasons later.
It appeared as though Peyton Manning' season was likely over when his backup seemed to permanently take over the starting role and even beat the Patriots in the regular season. Peyton had a host of injuries including torn fascia in his foot, but even before major reported injuries sidelined the veteran, Manning simply looked tired and broken. Just as Lewis made his triumphant return for one final ride, however, Manning came back during the second half of the Broncos' last game of the regular season to lead his team to a win that clinched a number one seed for the playoffs.
Last week's Steelers-Broncos game turned out to be a far closer contest than most would have assumed. The Steelers were without numerous integral weapons, and the Broncos were rested, healthy, and at home. The fact that the Denver struggled most of the game to muster and complete scoring drives had a fair amount to do with Peyton Manning's declining and limited physical abilities, but it must be noted that his receivers dropped a disturbing number of passes that would have kept drives moving had they been caught. Just as Ray Lewis' declining physical condition required the rest of his team to step up to help carry him to a final Super Bowl victory, so too will Peyton Manning need the Broncos' defense, rushing attack, and receivers to step up if he hopes to end HIS career at the pinnacle of football glory.
The script of the Broncos' potential Super Bowl run likely couldn't have been scripted better. To get to the Super Bowl, Manning must face his personal friend and professional arch-rival, Tom Brady, in what will almost certainly be an epic final showdown of the two greatest quarterbacks of a generation. Manning had long been the king of the regular season with consistently elite yardage, touchdown totals, and an average of 12 wins, whereas Tom Brady was the king of the rings with 3 Super Bowl victories over a 4 year span and another last year.
The debate as to which was truly the better quarterback continued for years. Some pointed to the fact that Peyton almost never had a serious defense behind him, and that his ability to essentially run an offense by himself made his coaching staff look much better than they may have deserved. Jim Caldwell, for example, was the head coach when Peyton Manning last took the Colts to the Super Bowl against the Saints, and Caldwell has since shown to be quite mediocre in nearly everything he's done without Peyton. Brady, on the other hand, did not become truly statistically elite until AFTER he won his first three Super Bowls. Those Super Bowls were in large part due to a compete team with stout defenses, but Brady still performed quite well in the clutch.
As the Patriots shifted away from defensive personnel emphasis and added elite receiving weapons such as Randy Moss and Wes Welker, Brady began his ascent into truly elite status. Tom, for example, had exactly one season with 4000+ passing yards before the arrival of Welker and Moss, but he totaled over 4,800 passing yards and set an NFL record of 50 touchdowns as soon as his weapons arrived. Moss and Welker were certainly not the last great Patriot weapons at Tom Brady's disposal. Since the departure of both of those players, the likes of Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski, and more regrettably, Aaron Hernandez, have made plays for the future hall of fame quarterback. The fact remains, however, that prior to the arrival of Wes Welker and Randy Moss, Brady averaged 3,593 passing yards and 24.5 touchdowns per season, whereas SINCE the arrival of Moss and Welker and the subsequent elite weapons, Brady has averaged 4548.5 passing yards and 35 touchdowns per season.
Those who argue that Manning was somehow better than Brady will point to the fact that the Patriots went 11-5 during the 2008 season when Brady tore his ACL in the first week. By contrast, when MANNING went out for the season in 2011, the Colts lost nearly ALL of their games after having averaged 12 wins per season for roughly a decade with Peyton leading the offense. The Patriots are unquestionably better with Tom Brady on the field, and his accuracy, timing, and leadership are unquestionably elite, but there is a case to be made that his head coach is responsible for assembling and architecting a system in which MATT FREAKING CASSEL can win 11 football games.
Now those arguing in Brady's favor will be quick to point out that Peyton Manning has a losing playoff record. He is, as a matter of fact, 11-13 in the playoffs and 1-2 in Super Bowls despite his regular season superiority. Manning's ability to perform under pressure in harsh playoff environments has simply not been as good as Brady's, and for good reason...Manning was a long time dome quarterback. Quarterbacks who aren't used to performing in outdoor environments often struggle in the post season as the playoffs are played in the winter. Tom Brady plays in one of the most hellishly cold winter environments in the United States, and he is thusly fully prepared for just about any stadium or temperature. Brady also has better mechanics than Manning, and despite the fact that both have a quick release, Tom throws a stronger, tighter spiral (especially now). Brady's ability to turn and release a football in well under 2 seconds with surgical precision has been a major reason that the likes of Wes Welker and Julian Edelman quickly developed into household names. Welker, for example, was basically useless before and after he played with Brady.
It may not matter now whether or not Brady or Manning was truly a better quarterback over the course of their respective careers. Both will undoubtedly be first ballot hall of famers, and both have together, redefined what it means to be an elite quarterback in today's NFL. What matters now is which quarterback will emerge victorious from Sunday's showdown in Denver. Tom Brady has never won a playoff game in Denver. Peyton Manning outplayed Brady two seasons ago in the AFC Championship in Denver to move on to the Super Bowl. With that said, much has changed about the physical state of Peyton Manning since their last playoff meeting, and Tom Brady has exhibited no visible signs of slowing down despite being only slightly younger than Manning. The interesting thing is that the Broncos already BEAT the Patriots this season...without old Pey-Pey.
I wasn't particularly blown away by the performance of either the Broncos or Patriots last weekend, and to decide which team is more likely to win this game, we'll have to take an in-depth look the health of each team's players. The Patriots defense, for example, has a handful of notable injuries, and we'll have to take a guess as to which will likely make a significant impact on tomorrow's game. I would say the Patriots looked like the crisper team last week, but they also had their issues with drops and also only beat their opponent by a single score. The reason to believe the Patriots are still the better team, however, is that they faced a MUCH better team than the Broncos faced last week. To best predict the outcome of this game, we'll take a look at the last meeting between these two teams, and we'll take a look at what each team did last week. We can look at how each team performed during the regular season, but we'll have to be careful to only analyze stats from games in which each team possessed similar personnel as to what will be available on Sunday. Ok, without further ado, let's get to the analysis and prediction.
PATRIOTS AT BRONCOS
It's difficult to suggest that Tom Brady didn't do well in his last game against the Broncos. Brady had 3 touchdowns and 280 passing yards versus Brock Osweiler's 270 passing yards and one touchdown. The Broncos, however, didn't NEED Osweiler to outproduce Tom Brady. C.J. Anderson rushed for 115 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Patriots run defense, and helped keep the ball out of Brady's hands in critical, late-game moments. It was the disparity between the rushing yardage production of each team that ultimately led to a Broncos win as the Patriots largely abandoned the run. LeGarrette Blount rushed for a mere 27 yards on 9 carries, and the run was largely abandoned. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Patriots abandon the run this time around, but there could be one major complication. The weather report predicts that there could be rain in Denver in the late afternoon and early evening--right when the Patriots and Broncos will play. If that's the case, it would shift a major advantage to the team with a better ability to run the ball. If the rain isn't as heavy or it doesn't last particularly long, the Patriots will have an offensive advantage as they have a full array of receiving weapons at their disposal.
I would say that the Broncos have a defensive advantage, but I wasn't particularly impressed with how they fared against the shorthanded Steelers offense last week. Ben Roethlisberger utilized quick passes to the likes of Martavis Bryant who made great gains after the catch. When the Patriots last faced the Broncos, Edelman did not suit up. Without Julian Edelman, the Patriots lack a consistent, shifty possession receiver to whom Brady can get the ball quickly. Danny Amendola possesses a similar skill set, but he's not quite as good or as consistent. With BOTH on the field, Brady can force defenses to play up on the shifty wide receivers before he unloads passes over the middle or up the seams to Rob Gronkowski. The Patriots don't posses serious deep threats as they did with Randy Moss, but their receivers get open quickly and make great plays after the catch. The Patriots offense, as mentioned earlier, depends heavily on precision timing and crisp route running to take full advantage of Brady's skills. It also depends teams committing heavily in efforts to stop Rob Gronkowski.
Gronk is easily the most difficult tight end to cover in the history of the NFL. He's 6'6", deceptively fast, sure-handed, and impressively physical. His physical dominance, however, has been a double edged sword as defenders know quite well that they have no prayer of tackling him if they aim for his midsection, and, instead, they have often opted to dive headfirst at Gronkowski's knees. Rob Gronkowski's physical and acrobatic brand of football has meant numerous injuries of various types, but he appears quite healthy right now, and we have to assume he will be healthy during tomorrow's game for the sake of this prediction. The fact that teams must commit so much in attempts to stop Gronkowski helps to open up the field for the rest of the receiving corps much the way that Randy Moss' presence used to open up the field for Wes Welker and company. A major reason the Patriots failed late against the Broncos earlier in the regular season was that Rob Gronkowski had to be carted off the field in the 4th quarter. The Patriots already lacked Edelman, but suddenly they found themselves without Gronk too. The Broncos likely won't be so lucky as to have BOTH receivers off the field again tomorrow.
I don't believe the Broncos have a as big of a defensive advantage over the Patriots that many would assume. The Patriots defense, in fact, ranked 10th in the league in points allowed this season with 19.7 per game. Even more interesting, the Patriots defense averaged almost exactly the same on the road with 20.875 points per game allowed away from Foxborough. Defenses tend to travel well, and that should bode well for Bill Belichick's crew. After all, the Broncos offense struggled mightily last week against a mediocre Steelers defense. The Patriots defense, by contrast, held the Chiefs to an uncharacteristic 20 points on the road. The Chiefs averaged 32.5 points per game on the road during the entire second half of the regular season, and they allowed just 12.5 points per game during that same road stretch. The fact that the Patriots were both able to hold the Chiefs to 20 points and score 27 points on them is, therefore, quite impressive. This tells me that both the Patriots offense AND defense are once again playing at a high level--I can't say as much for the Broncos.
The Broncos, as mentioned before, faced a Steelers offense crippled by injuries, and a Steelers defense that, despite a strong 11th ranking in points allowed, possessed serious deficiencies in the secondary. The Steelers defense certainly improved during the second half of the season, especially with a strong pass rush, but it was the Steelers' offensive production that helped keep the ball out of the hands of opposing offenses and take pressure off of the Steelers defense. The Broncos ultimately did prevail, but that was a game that the Broncos should have absolutely dominated if they were in serious dominant playoff form. The Steelers were using a running back they picked up off of the Ravens' practice squad, and were without the wide receiver who accounted for 40% of the Steelers receiving yards during the regular season. The vaunted Broncos defense SHOULDN'T have struggled at home to stop an offense as short-handed as the Steelers were last week, and the Broncos offense SHOULDN'T have struggled against a Steelers pass defense that ranked a horrendous 30th in the NFL. So why DID the Broncos struggle? That's simple; their offense isn't particularly good.
The Broncos offense ranked 16th in the league in yards and 19th in average points per game this season. Their pass offense ranked 14th, and their rush offense ranked 17th. There was, in other words, nothing they did particularly well to move the football. The Broncos have run the football well at times, and they've thrown the football well at times, but they haven't done so consistently. The Broncos defense padded their stats to a great degree against weaker teams and struggled against nearly any team that finished the season with a winning record. At times, the Broncos defense clamped down when their offense struggled, and sometimes the Broncos offense produced when their defense struggled. One way or another, the Broncos found their way to a 12-4 record in the regular season and a number one seed for the playoffs, but that record simply doesn't reflect their current state.
PREDICTION
There are a great many factors that COULD go into a playoff prediction. One could analyze various statistics ad nauseum, but equation to predicting this game is simpler than that. The Patriots have a healthy offense led by the NFL's top quarterback. Despite what I wrote earlier about wanting to take a look at the health of the Patriots roster, it has become clear that the Patriots obstruct any attempts at analyzing the projected health of their team by putting a massive number of players on their injury report with the painfully ambiguous label of "questionable". I've seldom seen players labelled questionable who haven't taken the field; that usually only happens with players labelled "doubtful". Bill Belichick simply refuses to give any information information to opposing teams that isn't required by the rules of the league.
The Patriots defense, despite having some banged up players, performed quite well last week against an impressive road offense. I expect nothing less from that defensive unit as it has statistically shown the ability to travel incredibly well in the second half of the season. The Patriots offense just finished putting up 27 points on a team that allowed in average of 12.5 points per game on the road during an 11 game winning streak--NO one scored on the Chiefs like that but the New England. The Patriots have a healthy, elite offense, and a top 10 ranked defense with a strong road record. The Broncos have a strong defense, but a lackluster offense with a physically limited quarterback and disappointingly inconsistent receivers. The Patriots are simply the more complete team, healthy team. Part of me wants Peyton to get one last ring before he rides off into the sunset, but nothing about his performance last week would suggest he has the ability to go up against the NFC's best team and come out with a win. A rainy day could make this game thrillingly unpredictable, but my brain tells me to go with the battle-tested team with a quarterback able to handle poor weather...and that's not the Broncos. PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 28-20
STAY TUNED TOMORROW FOR THE NFC CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTION
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!! (GO GET A CAP-FRIENDLY CONTRACT EXTENTION DONE WITH FLACCO)
It appeared as though Peyton Manning' season was likely over when his backup seemed to permanently take over the starting role and even beat the Patriots in the regular season. Peyton had a host of injuries including torn fascia in his foot, but even before major reported injuries sidelined the veteran, Manning simply looked tired and broken. Just as Lewis made his triumphant return for one final ride, however, Manning came back during the second half of the Broncos' last game of the regular season to lead his team to a win that clinched a number one seed for the playoffs.
Last week's Steelers-Broncos game turned out to be a far closer contest than most would have assumed. The Steelers were without numerous integral weapons, and the Broncos were rested, healthy, and at home. The fact that the Denver struggled most of the game to muster and complete scoring drives had a fair amount to do with Peyton Manning's declining and limited physical abilities, but it must be noted that his receivers dropped a disturbing number of passes that would have kept drives moving had they been caught. Just as Ray Lewis' declining physical condition required the rest of his team to step up to help carry him to a final Super Bowl victory, so too will Peyton Manning need the Broncos' defense, rushing attack, and receivers to step up if he hopes to end HIS career at the pinnacle of football glory.
The script of the Broncos' potential Super Bowl run likely couldn't have been scripted better. To get to the Super Bowl, Manning must face his personal friend and professional arch-rival, Tom Brady, in what will almost certainly be an epic final showdown of the two greatest quarterbacks of a generation. Manning had long been the king of the regular season with consistently elite yardage, touchdown totals, and an average of 12 wins, whereas Tom Brady was the king of the rings with 3 Super Bowl victories over a 4 year span and another last year.
The debate as to which was truly the better quarterback continued for years. Some pointed to the fact that Peyton almost never had a serious defense behind him, and that his ability to essentially run an offense by himself made his coaching staff look much better than they may have deserved. Jim Caldwell, for example, was the head coach when Peyton Manning last took the Colts to the Super Bowl against the Saints, and Caldwell has since shown to be quite mediocre in nearly everything he's done without Peyton. Brady, on the other hand, did not become truly statistically elite until AFTER he won his first three Super Bowls. Those Super Bowls were in large part due to a compete team with stout defenses, but Brady still performed quite well in the clutch.
As the Patriots shifted away from defensive personnel emphasis and added elite receiving weapons such as Randy Moss and Wes Welker, Brady began his ascent into truly elite status. Tom, for example, had exactly one season with 4000+ passing yards before the arrival of Welker and Moss, but he totaled over 4,800 passing yards and set an NFL record of 50 touchdowns as soon as his weapons arrived. Moss and Welker were certainly not the last great Patriot weapons at Tom Brady's disposal. Since the departure of both of those players, the likes of Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski, and more regrettably, Aaron Hernandez, have made plays for the future hall of fame quarterback. The fact remains, however, that prior to the arrival of Wes Welker and Randy Moss, Brady averaged 3,593 passing yards and 24.5 touchdowns per season, whereas SINCE the arrival of Moss and Welker and the subsequent elite weapons, Brady has averaged 4548.5 passing yards and 35 touchdowns per season.
Those who argue that Manning was somehow better than Brady will point to the fact that the Patriots went 11-5 during the 2008 season when Brady tore his ACL in the first week. By contrast, when MANNING went out for the season in 2011, the Colts lost nearly ALL of their games after having averaged 12 wins per season for roughly a decade with Peyton leading the offense. The Patriots are unquestionably better with Tom Brady on the field, and his accuracy, timing, and leadership are unquestionably elite, but there is a case to be made that his head coach is responsible for assembling and architecting a system in which MATT FREAKING CASSEL can win 11 football games.
Now those arguing in Brady's favor will be quick to point out that Peyton Manning has a losing playoff record. He is, as a matter of fact, 11-13 in the playoffs and 1-2 in Super Bowls despite his regular season superiority. Manning's ability to perform under pressure in harsh playoff environments has simply not been as good as Brady's, and for good reason...Manning was a long time dome quarterback. Quarterbacks who aren't used to performing in outdoor environments often struggle in the post season as the playoffs are played in the winter. Tom Brady plays in one of the most hellishly cold winter environments in the United States, and he is thusly fully prepared for just about any stadium or temperature. Brady also has better mechanics than Manning, and despite the fact that both have a quick release, Tom throws a stronger, tighter spiral (especially now). Brady's ability to turn and release a football in well under 2 seconds with surgical precision has been a major reason that the likes of Wes Welker and Julian Edelman quickly developed into household names. Welker, for example, was basically useless before and after he played with Brady.
It may not matter now whether or not Brady or Manning was truly a better quarterback over the course of their respective careers. Both will undoubtedly be first ballot hall of famers, and both have together, redefined what it means to be an elite quarterback in today's NFL. What matters now is which quarterback will emerge victorious from Sunday's showdown in Denver. Tom Brady has never won a playoff game in Denver. Peyton Manning outplayed Brady two seasons ago in the AFC Championship in Denver to move on to the Super Bowl. With that said, much has changed about the physical state of Peyton Manning since their last playoff meeting, and Tom Brady has exhibited no visible signs of slowing down despite being only slightly younger than Manning. The interesting thing is that the Broncos already BEAT the Patriots this season...without old Pey-Pey.
I wasn't particularly blown away by the performance of either the Broncos or Patriots last weekend, and to decide which team is more likely to win this game, we'll have to take an in-depth look the health of each team's players. The Patriots defense, for example, has a handful of notable injuries, and we'll have to take a guess as to which will likely make a significant impact on tomorrow's game. I would say the Patriots looked like the crisper team last week, but they also had their issues with drops and also only beat their opponent by a single score. The reason to believe the Patriots are still the better team, however, is that they faced a MUCH better team than the Broncos faced last week. To best predict the outcome of this game, we'll take a look at the last meeting between these two teams, and we'll take a look at what each team did last week. We can look at how each team performed during the regular season, but we'll have to be careful to only analyze stats from games in which each team possessed similar personnel as to what will be available on Sunday. Ok, without further ado, let's get to the analysis and prediction.
PATRIOTS AT BRONCOS
It's difficult to suggest that Tom Brady didn't do well in his last game against the Broncos. Brady had 3 touchdowns and 280 passing yards versus Brock Osweiler's 270 passing yards and one touchdown. The Broncos, however, didn't NEED Osweiler to outproduce Tom Brady. C.J. Anderson rushed for 115 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Patriots run defense, and helped keep the ball out of Brady's hands in critical, late-game moments. It was the disparity between the rushing yardage production of each team that ultimately led to a Broncos win as the Patriots largely abandoned the run. LeGarrette Blount rushed for a mere 27 yards on 9 carries, and the run was largely abandoned. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Patriots abandon the run this time around, but there could be one major complication. The weather report predicts that there could be rain in Denver in the late afternoon and early evening--right when the Patriots and Broncos will play. If that's the case, it would shift a major advantage to the team with a better ability to run the ball. If the rain isn't as heavy or it doesn't last particularly long, the Patriots will have an offensive advantage as they have a full array of receiving weapons at their disposal.
I would say that the Broncos have a defensive advantage, but I wasn't particularly impressed with how they fared against the shorthanded Steelers offense last week. Ben Roethlisberger utilized quick passes to the likes of Martavis Bryant who made great gains after the catch. When the Patriots last faced the Broncos, Edelman did not suit up. Without Julian Edelman, the Patriots lack a consistent, shifty possession receiver to whom Brady can get the ball quickly. Danny Amendola possesses a similar skill set, but he's not quite as good or as consistent. With BOTH on the field, Brady can force defenses to play up on the shifty wide receivers before he unloads passes over the middle or up the seams to Rob Gronkowski. The Patriots don't posses serious deep threats as they did with Randy Moss, but their receivers get open quickly and make great plays after the catch. The Patriots offense, as mentioned earlier, depends heavily on precision timing and crisp route running to take full advantage of Brady's skills. It also depends teams committing heavily in efforts to stop Rob Gronkowski.
Gronk is easily the most difficult tight end to cover in the history of the NFL. He's 6'6", deceptively fast, sure-handed, and impressively physical. His physical dominance, however, has been a double edged sword as defenders know quite well that they have no prayer of tackling him if they aim for his midsection, and, instead, they have often opted to dive headfirst at Gronkowski's knees. Rob Gronkowski's physical and acrobatic brand of football has meant numerous injuries of various types, but he appears quite healthy right now, and we have to assume he will be healthy during tomorrow's game for the sake of this prediction. The fact that teams must commit so much in attempts to stop Gronkowski helps to open up the field for the rest of the receiving corps much the way that Randy Moss' presence used to open up the field for Wes Welker and company. A major reason the Patriots failed late against the Broncos earlier in the regular season was that Rob Gronkowski had to be carted off the field in the 4th quarter. The Patriots already lacked Edelman, but suddenly they found themselves without Gronk too. The Broncos likely won't be so lucky as to have BOTH receivers off the field again tomorrow.
I don't believe the Broncos have a as big of a defensive advantage over the Patriots that many would assume. The Patriots defense, in fact, ranked 10th in the league in points allowed this season with 19.7 per game. Even more interesting, the Patriots defense averaged almost exactly the same on the road with 20.875 points per game allowed away from Foxborough. Defenses tend to travel well, and that should bode well for Bill Belichick's crew. After all, the Broncos offense struggled mightily last week against a mediocre Steelers defense. The Patriots defense, by contrast, held the Chiefs to an uncharacteristic 20 points on the road. The Chiefs averaged 32.5 points per game on the road during the entire second half of the regular season, and they allowed just 12.5 points per game during that same road stretch. The fact that the Patriots were both able to hold the Chiefs to 20 points and score 27 points on them is, therefore, quite impressive. This tells me that both the Patriots offense AND defense are once again playing at a high level--I can't say as much for the Broncos.
The Broncos, as mentioned before, faced a Steelers offense crippled by injuries, and a Steelers defense that, despite a strong 11th ranking in points allowed, possessed serious deficiencies in the secondary. The Steelers defense certainly improved during the second half of the season, especially with a strong pass rush, but it was the Steelers' offensive production that helped keep the ball out of the hands of opposing offenses and take pressure off of the Steelers defense. The Broncos ultimately did prevail, but that was a game that the Broncos should have absolutely dominated if they were in serious dominant playoff form. The Steelers were using a running back they picked up off of the Ravens' practice squad, and were without the wide receiver who accounted for 40% of the Steelers receiving yards during the regular season. The vaunted Broncos defense SHOULDN'T have struggled at home to stop an offense as short-handed as the Steelers were last week, and the Broncos offense SHOULDN'T have struggled against a Steelers pass defense that ranked a horrendous 30th in the NFL. So why DID the Broncos struggle? That's simple; their offense isn't particularly good.
The Broncos offense ranked 16th in the league in yards and 19th in average points per game this season. Their pass offense ranked 14th, and their rush offense ranked 17th. There was, in other words, nothing they did particularly well to move the football. The Broncos have run the football well at times, and they've thrown the football well at times, but they haven't done so consistently. The Broncos defense padded their stats to a great degree against weaker teams and struggled against nearly any team that finished the season with a winning record. At times, the Broncos defense clamped down when their offense struggled, and sometimes the Broncos offense produced when their defense struggled. One way or another, the Broncos found their way to a 12-4 record in the regular season and a number one seed for the playoffs, but that record simply doesn't reflect their current state.
PREDICTION
There are a great many factors that COULD go into a playoff prediction. One could analyze various statistics ad nauseum, but equation to predicting this game is simpler than that. The Patriots have a healthy offense led by the NFL's top quarterback. Despite what I wrote earlier about wanting to take a look at the health of the Patriots roster, it has become clear that the Patriots obstruct any attempts at analyzing the projected health of their team by putting a massive number of players on their injury report with the painfully ambiguous label of "questionable". I've seldom seen players labelled questionable who haven't taken the field; that usually only happens with players labelled "doubtful". Bill Belichick simply refuses to give any information information to opposing teams that isn't required by the rules of the league.
The Patriots defense, despite having some banged up players, performed quite well last week against an impressive road offense. I expect nothing less from that defensive unit as it has statistically shown the ability to travel incredibly well in the second half of the season. The Patriots offense just finished putting up 27 points on a team that allowed in average of 12.5 points per game on the road during an 11 game winning streak--NO one scored on the Chiefs like that but the New England. The Patriots have a healthy, elite offense, and a top 10 ranked defense with a strong road record. The Broncos have a strong defense, but a lackluster offense with a physically limited quarterback and disappointingly inconsistent receivers. The Patriots are simply the more complete team, healthy team. Part of me wants Peyton to get one last ring before he rides off into the sunset, but nothing about his performance last week would suggest he has the ability to go up against the NFC's best team and come out with a win. A rainy day could make this game thrillingly unpredictable, but my brain tells me to go with the battle-tested team with a quarterback able to handle poor weather...and that's not the Broncos. PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 28-20
STAY TUNED TOMORROW FOR THE NFC CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTION
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!! (GO GET A CAP-FRIENDLY CONTRACT EXTENTION DONE WITH FLACCO)
Sunday, January 17, 2016
AFC DIVISIONAL ROUND PREDICTION: STEELERS AT BRONCOS
As I write this, the Carolina Panthers possess a 24-0 second quarter lead over the Seahawks. For the moment, Cam Newton and company had made my last prediction into a hilarious joke. As it turns out, rest is a big deal in the NFL. That fact certainly rings true for this evening's contest between the Steelers and Broncos. The Broncos are coming off of a bye week while the Steelers are utterly crippled by major injuries. It's not enough that the Steelers' quarterback will hampered by a sprained AC joint and torn ligaments in his throwing arm, but the receiver with which that quarterback connected for 40% of his passing yards will be off the field. It's not that the Steelers don't have other receivers, but Markus Wheaton, Martavis Bryant, and Darrius Heyward-Bey comprise a far less daunting group than Wheaton, Bryant, and Antonio Brown. Big Ben has absolutely won many playoff games (not recently) with far less receiving options, but when he won those games, he had a ferocious defense and strong running game to help--he also had a functioning throwing arm.
Peyton Manning's body has failed him disastrously in the past two seasons. He went from two exceptional seasons with the Broncos to two years of physical collapse. Manning's injuries got so bad this season that his backup had to come in to play for a stretch. The last time a Peyton Manning backup played multiple games, Manning's team won the least games in the NFL and drafted Andrew Luck in the off-season. Peyton Manning's presence was, for most of his career, utterly integral to the success of his team. Now, however, Manning finds himself at the tail end of his career with one of the league's best defenses behind him, a solid rushing attack, and most importantly, a serviceable backup.
I'll not bore the reader with a host of season-long statistical averages because these teams haven't recently played with the personnel that will take the field today, particularly not the Steelers. The last time these two teams met, in fact, the Steelers had a full array of weapons and a relatively healthy QB, while the Broncos had their backup quarterback playing and were without both of their starting safeties. The Steelers initially fell far behind, but they made adjustments on both sides of the ball to exploit the absence both T.J. Ward and Darian Stewart in the Broncos defensive secondary. Both safeties will take the field and should be quite healthy after their bye week.
It's not just Ben Roethlisberger's ability to throw with distance and velocity that will be limited this evening. Ben knows very well the pass rushing tandem of DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller that will be in hot pursuit of him throughout this game. The threat of further injury to his throwing shoulder will likely cause Ben to get rid of the ball faster than he would like. The Steelers offense, after all, is ordinarily so incredibly explosive because of Ben's ability to buy time and find speedy receivers deep downfield. Not only will Ben not be able to throw deep comfortably, but he will likely be far more wary of trying to extend plays as doing so would only increase his chances of being buried under a pile of defenders, and that's more than that shoulder could handle.
PREDICTION
I, a devout Ravens fan, can't pretend to possess sterling objectivity when it comes to the Steelers, but loyalties aside, there is nothing that appears favorable about this matchup for Pittsburgh. Their quarterback won't be able to do what it is that he does best, and he'll be without his greatest weapon. Peyton Manning will have had extended rest, and he should be able to do enough to compliment the Broncos running game into order to put points on the board. It has seemed for the past few years as though the Steelers offense has looked like the best in the NFL, but only for certain stretches. The fact that Ben Roethlisberger has only played two complete seasons in his entire career has doomed the Steelers to a single playoff win in the last 5 years. In fact, the shifted personnel emphasis during that time period towards offense has meant a shift AWAY from the traditional tough, physical Steelers defense that has characterized the franchise for decades and led them literally all of their 6 Super Bowl wins. It's not that the Steelers haven't invested draft picks on defensive players; it's just that the Steelers haven't struck gold with their defensive draft picks as they have with their offensive selections. Because the Steelers offensive weapons have been the engine by which the team has succeeded, Ben Roethlisberger has been critical to the team's success as he's responsible for distributing the ball to those weapons. Well, his power to distribute the ball will be weak today, and he'll be without his greatest weapon to boot. Peyton's season has been set up well for a final showdown between the two best quarterbacks of the last 15 years. I can't say I believe in Manning's body's ability to take him all the way at this point, but he's good for at least one more good game after extended rest. BRONCOS 27-17
Peyton Manning's body has failed him disastrously in the past two seasons. He went from two exceptional seasons with the Broncos to two years of physical collapse. Manning's injuries got so bad this season that his backup had to come in to play for a stretch. The last time a Peyton Manning backup played multiple games, Manning's team won the least games in the NFL and drafted Andrew Luck in the off-season. Peyton Manning's presence was, for most of his career, utterly integral to the success of his team. Now, however, Manning finds himself at the tail end of his career with one of the league's best defenses behind him, a solid rushing attack, and most importantly, a serviceable backup.
I'll not bore the reader with a host of season-long statistical averages because these teams haven't recently played with the personnel that will take the field today, particularly not the Steelers. The last time these two teams met, in fact, the Steelers had a full array of weapons and a relatively healthy QB, while the Broncos had their backup quarterback playing and were without both of their starting safeties. The Steelers initially fell far behind, but they made adjustments on both sides of the ball to exploit the absence both T.J. Ward and Darian Stewart in the Broncos defensive secondary. Both safeties will take the field and should be quite healthy after their bye week.
It's not just Ben Roethlisberger's ability to throw with distance and velocity that will be limited this evening. Ben knows very well the pass rushing tandem of DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller that will be in hot pursuit of him throughout this game. The threat of further injury to his throwing shoulder will likely cause Ben to get rid of the ball faster than he would like. The Steelers offense, after all, is ordinarily so incredibly explosive because of Ben's ability to buy time and find speedy receivers deep downfield. Not only will Ben not be able to throw deep comfortably, but he will likely be far more wary of trying to extend plays as doing so would only increase his chances of being buried under a pile of defenders, and that's more than that shoulder could handle.
PREDICTION
I, a devout Ravens fan, can't pretend to possess sterling objectivity when it comes to the Steelers, but loyalties aside, there is nothing that appears favorable about this matchup for Pittsburgh. Their quarterback won't be able to do what it is that he does best, and he'll be without his greatest weapon. Peyton Manning will have had extended rest, and he should be able to do enough to compliment the Broncos running game into order to put points on the board. It has seemed for the past few years as though the Steelers offense has looked like the best in the NFL, but only for certain stretches. The fact that Ben Roethlisberger has only played two complete seasons in his entire career has doomed the Steelers to a single playoff win in the last 5 years. In fact, the shifted personnel emphasis during that time period towards offense has meant a shift AWAY from the traditional tough, physical Steelers defense that has characterized the franchise for decades and led them literally all of their 6 Super Bowl wins. It's not that the Steelers haven't invested draft picks on defensive players; it's just that the Steelers haven't struck gold with their defensive draft picks as they have with their offensive selections. Because the Steelers offensive weapons have been the engine by which the team has succeeded, Ben Roethlisberger has been critical to the team's success as he's responsible for distributing the ball to those weapons. Well, his power to distribute the ball will be weak today, and he'll be without his greatest weapon to boot. Peyton's season has been set up well for a final showdown between the two best quarterbacks of the last 15 years. I can't say I believe in Manning's body's ability to take him all the way at this point, but he's good for at least one more good game after extended rest. BRONCOS 27-17
NFC DIVISIONAL ROUND PREDICTION: SEAHAWKS AT PANTHERS
Yesterday's games went mostly as I predicted. My 28-23 prediction for the Chiefs-Patriots game was not far off from the 27-20 score that ensued, and although I predicted a lot more offensive production from the Packers and Cardinals, the result was still the same thanks to Larry Fitzgerald. Today's first matchup between the Seahawks and Panthers presents an interesting challenge regarding prediction. These teams met head to head in Charlotte in Week 6, and the Panthers won 27-23. That loss was part of a horrendous first 6 weeks of the season wherein the Seahawks lost 4 of their first 6 games and appeared destined to miss the post season for the first time in several years. Seattle, however, picked up a tremendous amount of momentum after their loss to the Panthers and won 9 of their last 11 games. So what changed from that first, rough 6 weeks to now? Defense.
The Seahawks defense was generally terrible during the first 6 weeks of the season. They shut down the Bears entirely 26-0 in Week 3, and held the Lions to 10 points in their 13-10 win in Week 4, but in their 4 losses during that first 6 week stretch, the once-mighty Seahawks defense allowed an average of 28.75 points. In their last 11 games, that changed dramatically. Sure there was the occasional offensive shootout such as that the one against the Steelers and a mid-season loss to the Cardinals, but the Seahawks have only allowed an average of 14.63 points per game over their last 11 contests. That's roughly a touchdown better than the 20.83 points per game they allowed through the first 6 weeks.
It's not just the Seahawks defense that has improved. Their offense appears to actually have gotten quite a bit better in the second half of the season. Now it's possible that improved defense meant many more opportunities for the offense, but one way or another, the Seahawks offense has produced 29 or more points in 7 of their last 9 games with only a loss to the Rams and last week's 10-9 frigid victory over the Vikings as outliers. What's truly impressive about this offensive production during that period? Well aside of the sheer number of points scored, the Seahawks have done it all Marshawn Lynch over the course of the past 8 games. Hell, they haven't even had Thomas Rawls since he went down against the Ravens 5 games ago. They also haven't had what they thought would be a major weapon, Jimmy Graham, since he went down against the Steelers a couple of months ago. Yes, the Seahawks have found a way to win without their vaunted running back, his backup, and the tight end for whom they traded away an important offensive lineman. They've simply learned to win with what they have. Well guess what! The world learned this morning that Marshawn Lynch WILL play today, and that means the Seahawks will get a rested beast of a running back to help churn out yards against a Panthers defense that has helped lead the team to a 15-1 record during the regular season.
The Panthers allowed a respectable 19 points per game this season, but they're playing at home today, so it's more important that we look at the 17 points per game they allowed this season at home. The major knock against the Panthers has been that their schedule was essentially the softest of any winning team in the league. Let us, therefore, eliminate all home games against losing teams from their home schedule and see how their defense fared. That, unfortunately only leaves the Texans, Packers, and Redskins. Well they dominated the Redskins, but the Redskins were so atrocious on the road for most of the regular season that I'm not convinced that means much. They also just barely edged the Texans by a touchdown early in the season when the Texans were on a horrendous losing streak. Unfortunately, the only serious playoff contender the Panthers faced at home was the Packers, and even they were short a handful of crucial weapons this season. The Panthers defense might have been impressive from a season average standpoint, but how many times did decent and even bad teams take them to the brink?
The Saints, Colts, Texans, Saints (again), Giants, and the Seahawks all lost to the vaunted Panthers by a touchdown or less, and the Texans were the only team to lose by more than 6 points. The Falcons BEAT the Panthers 20-13 only two weeks after losing to Carolina 38-0. In the NFL a win is a win, but there is something perplexingly pedestrian about so many of the Panthers' 15 regular season wins. They've required utter late-game magic from Cam Newton, and it's difficult to know how much he'll be able to provide against a vastly improved Seahawks defense. Cam, in fact, had to lead a late game comeback against the Seahawks, and that was long before they found their rhythm this season.
PREDICTION
The early matchup between the Panthers and Seahawks doesn't tell me much about how these teams will fare. The Panthers have found ways to win games against a lot of bad teams, and they've found ways to beat a small handful of good teams including 4 that found their way into the playoffs. The defensive improvements the Seahawks exhibited since the last time these teams met, however, leads me to believe Cam's magic won't be enough today. With the exception of a couple of games, the Seahawks offense has been absolutely sensational over the course of the last 9 weeks, and it didn't seem to matter who they played so long as it wasn't the Rams. It is possible that the Panthers will be rested and raring to go after their bye week, but the Seahawks simply appear to have too much momentum and will be getting back a rested, ferocious running back. If Cam Newton wins this, he'll show he has taken a HUGE next step in his development as a premier quarterback. Part of me is rooting for him, but part of me simply wasn't impressed with how the Panthers played against mediocre teams this season. The Seahawks know EXACTLY what they're doing in the post-season: they play defense, they run the football, and they have a quarterback who makes insane plays in the clutch. The Panthers might have all of those things, but they have yet to show me they have them against really good teams and in the playoffs. This will be a battle. SEAHAWKS 31-23
The Seahawks defense was generally terrible during the first 6 weeks of the season. They shut down the Bears entirely 26-0 in Week 3, and held the Lions to 10 points in their 13-10 win in Week 4, but in their 4 losses during that first 6 week stretch, the once-mighty Seahawks defense allowed an average of 28.75 points. In their last 11 games, that changed dramatically. Sure there was the occasional offensive shootout such as that the one against the Steelers and a mid-season loss to the Cardinals, but the Seahawks have only allowed an average of 14.63 points per game over their last 11 contests. That's roughly a touchdown better than the 20.83 points per game they allowed through the first 6 weeks.
It's not just the Seahawks defense that has improved. Their offense appears to actually have gotten quite a bit better in the second half of the season. Now it's possible that improved defense meant many more opportunities for the offense, but one way or another, the Seahawks offense has produced 29 or more points in 7 of their last 9 games with only a loss to the Rams and last week's 10-9 frigid victory over the Vikings as outliers. What's truly impressive about this offensive production during that period? Well aside of the sheer number of points scored, the Seahawks have done it all Marshawn Lynch over the course of the past 8 games. Hell, they haven't even had Thomas Rawls since he went down against the Ravens 5 games ago. They also haven't had what they thought would be a major weapon, Jimmy Graham, since he went down against the Steelers a couple of months ago. Yes, the Seahawks have found a way to win without their vaunted running back, his backup, and the tight end for whom they traded away an important offensive lineman. They've simply learned to win with what they have. Well guess what! The world learned this morning that Marshawn Lynch WILL play today, and that means the Seahawks will get a rested beast of a running back to help churn out yards against a Panthers defense that has helped lead the team to a 15-1 record during the regular season.
The Panthers allowed a respectable 19 points per game this season, but they're playing at home today, so it's more important that we look at the 17 points per game they allowed this season at home. The major knock against the Panthers has been that their schedule was essentially the softest of any winning team in the league. Let us, therefore, eliminate all home games against losing teams from their home schedule and see how their defense fared. That, unfortunately only leaves the Texans, Packers, and Redskins. Well they dominated the Redskins, but the Redskins were so atrocious on the road for most of the regular season that I'm not convinced that means much. They also just barely edged the Texans by a touchdown early in the season when the Texans were on a horrendous losing streak. Unfortunately, the only serious playoff contender the Panthers faced at home was the Packers, and even they were short a handful of crucial weapons this season. The Panthers defense might have been impressive from a season average standpoint, but how many times did decent and even bad teams take them to the brink?
The Saints, Colts, Texans, Saints (again), Giants, and the Seahawks all lost to the vaunted Panthers by a touchdown or less, and the Texans were the only team to lose by more than 6 points. The Falcons BEAT the Panthers 20-13 only two weeks after losing to Carolina 38-0. In the NFL a win is a win, but there is something perplexingly pedestrian about so many of the Panthers' 15 regular season wins. They've required utter late-game magic from Cam Newton, and it's difficult to know how much he'll be able to provide against a vastly improved Seahawks defense. Cam, in fact, had to lead a late game comeback against the Seahawks, and that was long before they found their rhythm this season.
PREDICTION
The early matchup between the Panthers and Seahawks doesn't tell me much about how these teams will fare. The Panthers have found ways to win games against a lot of bad teams, and they've found ways to beat a small handful of good teams including 4 that found their way into the playoffs. The defensive improvements the Seahawks exhibited since the last time these teams met, however, leads me to believe Cam's magic won't be enough today. With the exception of a couple of games, the Seahawks offense has been absolutely sensational over the course of the last 9 weeks, and it didn't seem to matter who they played so long as it wasn't the Rams. It is possible that the Panthers will be rested and raring to go after their bye week, but the Seahawks simply appear to have too much momentum and will be getting back a rested, ferocious running back. If Cam Newton wins this, he'll show he has taken a HUGE next step in his development as a premier quarterback. Part of me is rooting for him, but part of me simply wasn't impressed with how the Panthers played against mediocre teams this season. The Seahawks know EXACTLY what they're doing in the post-season: they play defense, they run the football, and they have a quarterback who makes insane plays in the clutch. The Panthers might have all of those things, but they have yet to show me they have them against really good teams and in the playoffs. This will be a battle. SEAHAWKS 31-23
Saturday, January 16, 2016
NFC DIVISIONAL ROUND PREDICTION: PACKERS AT CARDINALS
I can't speak highly enough of Tyrann Mathieu's level of play this season, and that's why it's such a huge deal that the Cardinals will have to go into the playoffs without him. A lot of people believe the Cardinals are the greatest team in the NFC, and one of the best in the NFL. I know their record would suggest as much, but I didn't see that level of play earlier this season when our Ravens traveled to Arizona and nearly came back against the Cardinals in a game where they benefited by two atrocious call/non-calls by the referees (one of which the NFL apologized for) that literally meant the difference between a win and a loss. I was not overwhelmed by the Cardinals offense, nor was a struck by the potency of their defense with the exception of one incredible pass breakup by Tyrann Mathieu on what would have been a sure touchdown pass to Chris Givens.
I don't believe the Cardinals are an overwhelming powerhouse, and they no longer have Tyrann Mathieu or Chris Johnson, both of whom played integral roles during the Cardinals' win over the Ravens. Fortunately for the Cardinals, however, the Packers went into Arizona and lost 38-8 only 3 weeks ago. Neither Tyrann Mathieu nor Chris Johnson were present for that matchup either. It must be noted that the Packers were without 3 starting offensive lineman during that game, but their defense still gave up 38 points to the Cardinals.
The Packers certainly appeared to have gained some rhythm and momentum last week in their beatdown of the Redskins. Their defense looked impressive against a hapless second half Redskins offense, and Aaron Rodgers and company seemingly scored at will. Part of the reason for this success was a banged up Redskins defense, and part was the improved play of Davante Adams. Adams. Adams has had a lackluster season, but he looked spectacular last week. Davante Adams, however, will not play along with Packers tight end, Andrew Quarless. The Packers also have two questionable, banged up corners as Quinten Rollins has a quad injury and Sam Shields is coming off of a concussion. That plays right into the hand of a Cardinals team that has impressive receiving weapons being fed the ball by a quarterback having what could end up as a career year if he can win a playoff game today.
The addition of Dwight Freeney was exactly what this team needed to feast on a team such as the Packers. The last time these two teams met, Freeney alone sacked Aaron Rodgers 3 times and the team sacked Rodgers 8 times. With a healthier offensive line, the Packers will likely protect their franchise QB better today, but that protection will mean less now that one of his starting wide receivers and his starting tight end won't play.
PREDICTION
I don't typically prefer to go into a prediction without a lot of statistical analysis, but this is one of two games this weekend that I don't believe analyzing a season full of stats would be worth your reading. These teams met in exactly the same place 3 weeks ago, and the results were catastrophic for the Packers. The Packers looked better against an injured, bad defense last week, but they'll be without weapons and a rested enemy that knows EXACTLY how to beat them.
PACKERS 31-20
WITH MORE TIME OFF THIS WEEK, I'LL BE ABLE TO BE POSTING LENGTHIER AND EARLIER ANALYSIS OF NEXT WEEKEND'S AFC AND NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES. STAY TUNED LATER TONIGHT FOR PREDICTIONS FOR TOMORROW'S GAMES. WE'RE JUST GETTING WARMED UP!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!! (GET HEALTHY AND MAKE THIS DRAFT COUNT!)
I don't believe the Cardinals are an overwhelming powerhouse, and they no longer have Tyrann Mathieu or Chris Johnson, both of whom played integral roles during the Cardinals' win over the Ravens. Fortunately for the Cardinals, however, the Packers went into Arizona and lost 38-8 only 3 weeks ago. Neither Tyrann Mathieu nor Chris Johnson were present for that matchup either. It must be noted that the Packers were without 3 starting offensive lineman during that game, but their defense still gave up 38 points to the Cardinals.
The Packers certainly appeared to have gained some rhythm and momentum last week in their beatdown of the Redskins. Their defense looked impressive against a hapless second half Redskins offense, and Aaron Rodgers and company seemingly scored at will. Part of the reason for this success was a banged up Redskins defense, and part was the improved play of Davante Adams. Adams. Adams has had a lackluster season, but he looked spectacular last week. Davante Adams, however, will not play along with Packers tight end, Andrew Quarless. The Packers also have two questionable, banged up corners as Quinten Rollins has a quad injury and Sam Shields is coming off of a concussion. That plays right into the hand of a Cardinals team that has impressive receiving weapons being fed the ball by a quarterback having what could end up as a career year if he can win a playoff game today.
The addition of Dwight Freeney was exactly what this team needed to feast on a team such as the Packers. The last time these two teams met, Freeney alone sacked Aaron Rodgers 3 times and the team sacked Rodgers 8 times. With a healthier offensive line, the Packers will likely protect their franchise QB better today, but that protection will mean less now that one of his starting wide receivers and his starting tight end won't play.
PREDICTION
I don't typically prefer to go into a prediction without a lot of statistical analysis, but this is one of two games this weekend that I don't believe analyzing a season full of stats would be worth your reading. These teams met in exactly the same place 3 weeks ago, and the results were catastrophic for the Packers. The Packers looked better against an injured, bad defense last week, but they'll be without weapons and a rested enemy that knows EXACTLY how to beat them.
PACKERS 31-20
WITH MORE TIME OFF THIS WEEK, I'LL BE ABLE TO BE POSTING LENGTHIER AND EARLIER ANALYSIS OF NEXT WEEKEND'S AFC AND NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES. STAY TUNED LATER TONIGHT FOR PREDICTIONS FOR TOMORROW'S GAMES. WE'RE JUST GETTING WARMED UP!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!! (GET HEALTHY AND MAKE THIS DRAFT COUNT!)
AFC DIVISIONAL ROUND PREDICTION: CHIEFS-PATRIOTS
This weekend's matchups present tremendous issues for my typical system of analysis. As if it hadn't been rough enough last week with the Steelers stealing away a correct prediction in the waning moments of their game in Cincy, I ended up going an uncharacteristic 2-2 in the first round of the playoffs. NOW, however, we have MAAAAJOR factors for which we must simply place guesses. Yes, I know that predicting sports is not much more than an educated guess, but in this case, the injuries to key players in at least three quarters of this weekend's games leave us wondering who will even play, let alone win.
Take the Chiefs-Patriots game, for example. The Chiefs have looked like the best team in the NFL for 11 straight weeks, but they just lost their most dangerous receiving threat, Jeremy Maclin, last week to a high ankle sprain. In addition to Maclin, the Chiefs' best two defenders, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, have both missed practice time this week and don't appear to be nearly 100%. Then we look at the Patriots. The Patriots lost 4 of their last 6 games in large part because of major absences in personnel. Does the return to health of all of their playmakers, both offensive and defensive, make them back into the team they were prior to week 12? And just how dominant was that team considering what they're going up against with the Chiefs?
The problem these situations is that we're left guessing which statistics to analyze. How can I draw conclusions about how the Patriots will do against one of the most frightfully dominant defenses in the NFL based on their last couple of months of play considering that many of the players they missed during that time will be on the field today? Oh, and what about Brady? Brady has a high ankle sprain upon which he'll play against a team with pass rushers EVERYWHERE. There's no way to know the degree to which Brady's ankle will hinder his mobility.
It is for these reasons that we can only use the information given to us and give it our best shot. I guess I'm simply apologizing in advance for not having my typical confidence in statistical analysis going into this weekend. Without further ado, let's take a look at the picks!
CHIEFS AT PATRIOTS
This kind of matchup happens every post season and usually more than once. Do you go with well-rested perennial powerhouse at home or the red-hot upstart that began the season as one of the league's worst teams? To answer that question, we'll need to look back at the last time the Patriots had similar personnel at their disposal as they will today.
Every team gets bumps and bruises over the course of a season, but those bumps and bruises came to a crescendo for the Patriots against the Broncos in late November. It is for this reason that we'll look at statistics before that game, and we'll only look at stats accumulated for the Patriots at home in Foxborough. During their first 6 healthy home games, the Patriots scored an average of exactly 32 points her game and allowed an average of only 15.16 points per game--that's a differential of a whopping 16.84 points at home.
Now one important fact to consider is that Julian Edelman played in 5 of the 6 games listed in that sample size. Edelman did NOT play in the home game against the Buffalo Bills, and it is, therefore, no surprise that the Patriots struggled mightily to score at their usual pace. In that first home game without Edelman, the Patriots only won 20-13 over a Bills team they beat in Buffalo 40-32. Rob Gronkowski is generally regarded as the greatest offensive weapon at Brady's disposal--and he is, but Julian Edelman adds a particular facet to the offense previously provided by Wes Welker in past years. Edelman offers sure hands and superb rout running on short, chain-moving passes. It is Edelman's presence and ability to get open quickly that allows Brady to release the football almost immediately in order to take away an opposing opportunity for a pass rush. Edelman was sidelined with a broken bone, but he has had many weeks to recover and has practiced for weeks now to get back to game speed. During the 5 home games that Julian Edelman played this season the Patriots scored a whopping 34.4 points per game. Having him on the field in addition to Danny Amendola, Brandon LaFell, and Rob Gronkowski, means the Patriots will be able to both score quickly when necessary and also convert first downs when they need to burn up clock and keep the ball out of the hands of the opposing team.
Last week we went over what incredible road offensive production the Chiefs have had all season, and they didn't disappoint in their 30-0 soul-crushing demolition of the Texans. I get it, it's the Texans...they weren't that good in the first place. The Chiefs, however, went on the road and stepped on the throats of a team that, despite its lack of an elite or franchise quarterback, had a ferocious defense and at least an offensive weapon or two such as DeAndre Hopkins. The thing is, the Patriots crushed the Texans by nearly the same margin during their injury-riddled stretch, and that should tell us something about how well the Patriots play at home. With that said, the Chiefs should absolutely be able to put up points on the Patriots, the question will be whether they'll be able OUTscore Brady and company. The problem for the Chiefs is that their leading receiving weapon, Jeremy Maclin, will be attempting to play on a high ankle sprain. To examine the potential effects of Maclin's injury, let's take a look at his production on the season.
Maclin led the Chiefs with 1088 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns during the regular season. Maclin had impressive production on the road this season . He had 141 receiving yards in Green Bay, 148 in Cincinnati, and 95 yards in Oakland. During the last 6 games of the season, Maclin averaged one touchdown per game, and his touchdowns were the difference between winning and losing in 4 of those 6 games. Jeremy Maclin, however, caught for only 29 yards on three receptions last week before coming out with an injury against the Texans. The Chiefs still managed to score one rushing touchdown, one passing touchdown to Chris Conley, and one special teams touchdown off of a kickoff return. The Chiefs also scored 9 points off of field goals to bring the grand total to 30. Now if one takes away the special teams TD, the Chiefs only put up 23 offensive points; that's not likely going to beat the Patriots. It's also safe to say that the Chiefs will not likely benefit from 5 turnovers against the Patriots the way they did against the Texans because Tom Brady and his receivers simply don't turn the ball over like a backup quarterback does...sorry Hoyer.
Some of the biggest factors of this matchup can't be measured by statistics. The most important is that the patriots have had a bye week to both rest and study their opponent. The Chiefs have spent a good chunk of the last week traveling, and they'll be playing in one of the most hostile road venues in the NFL. The Patriots listed a dozen of their players as questionable, but that's a routine tactic they employ so as not to divulge the true extent of the health of their roster to an opponent. Tom Brady has had extended rest to allow his ankle to heal, but he's also not a quarterback who relies heavily on his speed and athleticism to make plays. Brady will have Amendola, Edelman, LaFell, and Gronkowski, and that means he'll be able to get the ball out quickly and stay upright. The Patriots had significant defensive injuries as well, but as far as one can tell, those players will all be returning to the field this afternoon as well.
PREDICTION
I want so very badly to give reasons why the Chiefs can win this game. They have an incredible defense, and they find ways to score without elite offensive weapons, but I believe they're entering a game wherein they simply can't outscore a healthy, dangerous opponent. The Patriots offense won't struggle to move the ball with the return of Julian Edelman. This is not an offense that depends heavily on big chunk plays on downfield passes. Tom Brady doesn't have to sit in the pocket waiting for receivers to be open. Kansas City depends too heavily on the mistakes of opposing teams rather than simply imposing their will. A healthy Patriots team simply doesn't make mistakes at home with the frequency of other teams, nor does their defense allow for much production from the opposition. This is a matchup of an elite offense with an impressive, currently healthy home defense going up against a team with a sensational, opportunistic defense that relies on the pass rush. This should be close, and I pray I'm wrong, but I can't see a Chiefs team that only beat the Browns, Raiders, and Chargers by a touchdown or less in the last 6 weeks of the season somehow going into Foxborough and outscoring a rested Patriots team. God...I've never wanted to be wrong on a playoff prediction this badly.
PATRIOTS 28-23
STAY TUNED FOR THE PACKERS-CARDINALS PREDICTION!!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Take the Chiefs-Patriots game, for example. The Chiefs have looked like the best team in the NFL for 11 straight weeks, but they just lost their most dangerous receiving threat, Jeremy Maclin, last week to a high ankle sprain. In addition to Maclin, the Chiefs' best two defenders, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, have both missed practice time this week and don't appear to be nearly 100%. Then we look at the Patriots. The Patriots lost 4 of their last 6 games in large part because of major absences in personnel. Does the return to health of all of their playmakers, both offensive and defensive, make them back into the team they were prior to week 12? And just how dominant was that team considering what they're going up against with the Chiefs?
The problem these situations is that we're left guessing which statistics to analyze. How can I draw conclusions about how the Patriots will do against one of the most frightfully dominant defenses in the NFL based on their last couple of months of play considering that many of the players they missed during that time will be on the field today? Oh, and what about Brady? Brady has a high ankle sprain upon which he'll play against a team with pass rushers EVERYWHERE. There's no way to know the degree to which Brady's ankle will hinder his mobility.
It is for these reasons that we can only use the information given to us and give it our best shot. I guess I'm simply apologizing in advance for not having my typical confidence in statistical analysis going into this weekend. Without further ado, let's take a look at the picks!
CHIEFS AT PATRIOTS
This kind of matchup happens every post season and usually more than once. Do you go with well-rested perennial powerhouse at home or the red-hot upstart that began the season as one of the league's worst teams? To answer that question, we'll need to look back at the last time the Patriots had similar personnel at their disposal as they will today.
Every team gets bumps and bruises over the course of a season, but those bumps and bruises came to a crescendo for the Patriots against the Broncos in late November. It is for this reason that we'll look at statistics before that game, and we'll only look at stats accumulated for the Patriots at home in Foxborough. During their first 6 healthy home games, the Patriots scored an average of exactly 32 points her game and allowed an average of only 15.16 points per game--that's a differential of a whopping 16.84 points at home.
Now one important fact to consider is that Julian Edelman played in 5 of the 6 games listed in that sample size. Edelman did NOT play in the home game against the Buffalo Bills, and it is, therefore, no surprise that the Patriots struggled mightily to score at their usual pace. In that first home game without Edelman, the Patriots only won 20-13 over a Bills team they beat in Buffalo 40-32. Rob Gronkowski is generally regarded as the greatest offensive weapon at Brady's disposal--and he is, but Julian Edelman adds a particular facet to the offense previously provided by Wes Welker in past years. Edelman offers sure hands and superb rout running on short, chain-moving passes. It is Edelman's presence and ability to get open quickly that allows Brady to release the football almost immediately in order to take away an opposing opportunity for a pass rush. Edelman was sidelined with a broken bone, but he has had many weeks to recover and has practiced for weeks now to get back to game speed. During the 5 home games that Julian Edelman played this season the Patriots scored a whopping 34.4 points per game. Having him on the field in addition to Danny Amendola, Brandon LaFell, and Rob Gronkowski, means the Patriots will be able to both score quickly when necessary and also convert first downs when they need to burn up clock and keep the ball out of the hands of the opposing team.
Last week we went over what incredible road offensive production the Chiefs have had all season, and they didn't disappoint in their 30-0 soul-crushing demolition of the Texans. I get it, it's the Texans...they weren't that good in the first place. The Chiefs, however, went on the road and stepped on the throats of a team that, despite its lack of an elite or franchise quarterback, had a ferocious defense and at least an offensive weapon or two such as DeAndre Hopkins. The thing is, the Patriots crushed the Texans by nearly the same margin during their injury-riddled stretch, and that should tell us something about how well the Patriots play at home. With that said, the Chiefs should absolutely be able to put up points on the Patriots, the question will be whether they'll be able OUTscore Brady and company. The problem for the Chiefs is that their leading receiving weapon, Jeremy Maclin, will be attempting to play on a high ankle sprain. To examine the potential effects of Maclin's injury, let's take a look at his production on the season.
Maclin led the Chiefs with 1088 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns during the regular season. Maclin had impressive production on the road this season . He had 141 receiving yards in Green Bay, 148 in Cincinnati, and 95 yards in Oakland. During the last 6 games of the season, Maclin averaged one touchdown per game, and his touchdowns were the difference between winning and losing in 4 of those 6 games. Jeremy Maclin, however, caught for only 29 yards on three receptions last week before coming out with an injury against the Texans. The Chiefs still managed to score one rushing touchdown, one passing touchdown to Chris Conley, and one special teams touchdown off of a kickoff return. The Chiefs also scored 9 points off of field goals to bring the grand total to 30. Now if one takes away the special teams TD, the Chiefs only put up 23 offensive points; that's not likely going to beat the Patriots. It's also safe to say that the Chiefs will not likely benefit from 5 turnovers against the Patriots the way they did against the Texans because Tom Brady and his receivers simply don't turn the ball over like a backup quarterback does...sorry Hoyer.
Some of the biggest factors of this matchup can't be measured by statistics. The most important is that the patriots have had a bye week to both rest and study their opponent. The Chiefs have spent a good chunk of the last week traveling, and they'll be playing in one of the most hostile road venues in the NFL. The Patriots listed a dozen of their players as questionable, but that's a routine tactic they employ so as not to divulge the true extent of the health of their roster to an opponent. Tom Brady has had extended rest to allow his ankle to heal, but he's also not a quarterback who relies heavily on his speed and athleticism to make plays. Brady will have Amendola, Edelman, LaFell, and Gronkowski, and that means he'll be able to get the ball out quickly and stay upright. The Patriots had significant defensive injuries as well, but as far as one can tell, those players will all be returning to the field this afternoon as well.
PREDICTION
I want so very badly to give reasons why the Chiefs can win this game. They have an incredible defense, and they find ways to score without elite offensive weapons, but I believe they're entering a game wherein they simply can't outscore a healthy, dangerous opponent. The Patriots offense won't struggle to move the ball with the return of Julian Edelman. This is not an offense that depends heavily on big chunk plays on downfield passes. Tom Brady doesn't have to sit in the pocket waiting for receivers to be open. Kansas City depends too heavily on the mistakes of opposing teams rather than simply imposing their will. A healthy Patriots team simply doesn't make mistakes at home with the frequency of other teams, nor does their defense allow for much production from the opposition. This is a matchup of an elite offense with an impressive, currently healthy home defense going up against a team with a sensational, opportunistic defense that relies on the pass rush. This should be close, and I pray I'm wrong, but I can't see a Chiefs team that only beat the Browns, Raiders, and Chargers by a touchdown or less in the last 6 weeks of the season somehow going into Foxborough and outscoring a rested Patriots team. God...I've never wanted to be wrong on a playoff prediction this badly.
PATRIOTS 28-23
STAY TUNED FOR THE PACKERS-CARDINALS PREDICTION!!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Sunday, January 10, 2016
NFC WILDCARD ROUND PREDICTION: PACKERS AT REDSKINS
I've had a good laugh at those on sports talk radio who have given Aaron Rodgers favorable predictions week after week during the second half of this season despite his utter lack of serious targets. They seem to think "but HEY it's Aaron Rodgers!", and they don't give a second thought to the fact that his team lost 6 of its last 10 games. Aaron Rodgers is typically an elite regular season quarterback, but a was seen even with the likes of Tom Brady the second half of this season, a quarterback can only be successful if the guys he's throwing to can catch the football.
The Redskins, on the other hand, have changed from a team that lost 7 of its first 12 games to a team that won all of their final 4 games including 3 on the road. As I write this, I look at some idiotic ESPN article that states that Kirk Cousins hasn't beaten "top competition" this season, and that appears to be true--but the Packers are not what anyone should view is "top competition". Anyone who wants to label the Redskins as "bad" and the Packers as "good" needs to take a good hard look at the statistics for both teams, and that's just what we'll do.
THE STATS
To the credit of the Packers, 5 of their 8 road games resulted in victories for Rodgers and company. To problem with that record is that 3 of those 5 road victories came against divisional foes, and another one of the 5 came against the impossibly bad 49ers. In fact, the Packers had exactly one road win versus a team with a winning record, and that was their first win against the Vikings in Week 11. It's important to note that the Vikings then proceeded to beat the Packers last week IN Green Bay. When the Packers went up against their last playoff-caliber road foe in Arizona two weeks ago, they were beat like a drum to the tune of 38-8.
The Redskins, meanwhile, are have clearly found their offensive groove. Over the course of the last 4 games, Washington has scored an average of 32.75 points per game. Ordinarily I might say we should ignore stats accumulated on the road for a team that's playing at home, but that doesn't make a ton of sense in this case. The Redskins have fared quite well at home all season with a 6-2 record, and they beat the Bills 35-25 in their last game right outside D.C. The statistical trend appears more that the Redskins have finally found a way to score consistently regardless of the setting in which they play. The Redskins DEFENSE, however, appears to benefit quite substantially from being at home.
Washington's defense allowed a mediocre 23.7 points per game (17th in the NFL) this season, but their D allowed a more impressive 18.625 points at home. One can bet that a Skins fanbase that is impressively loyal year in and year out despite near-constant heartbreak will be raucous and will have yell itself collectively hoarse by the end of the game. Despite the comparatively pleasant weather, Landover, Maryland should not be a particularly inviting environment for the visiting Packers.
As homefield advantage doesn't seem particularly pronounced for the Packers this season, we'll simply use their last 10 games as our statistical sample size. The Packers, as I mentioned before, lost 6 of their last 10 games including 4 of their 5 games played against playoff teams during that time. During those 5 games against playoff teams, the Packers scored an average of 18 points per game.
So what was it that made everyone think the Packers were so good this season? Well that's simple: the James Jones factor. James Jones returned to the Packers this season after Jordy Nelson went down with a season-ending injury. Jones initially jumped right back into an elite level of production, and for the first 6 weeks of the season, Jones averaged 1 touchdown per game. The Packers were 6-0 during that period, and appeared to be right back to their typical Super Bowl contender form. After the first 6 weeks of the season, however, Jones averaged 0.2 touchdowns per game, and in the final 10 weeks of the season the Packers lost just as many games as they had won in that first, glorious month and a half. James Jones occasionally put up impressive performances, but those instances became SO occasional, that Jones' average receiving yards per game dropped to 46.6 over the final ten game stretch. Jones' only impressive receiving yardage totals of the final 10 games came against the Vikings against whom he appears to match up quite well. If one ignores the two games against the Vikings, Jones' receiving yards average per game over the last 10 weeks of the season falls to a depressing 31.875 per game. It appears as though father time has simply caught up to James Jones. He wasn't a true #1 receiver in the past, and if Jordy Nelson were still on this team, then it's possible Jones would have been more effective for a longer period of time this season. Nelson is NOT able to play now, and Jones...well Jones isn't really able to play much at all either.
The Packers are almost certainly going to lean on their rushing attack to take pressure off of Aaron Rodgers today. Washington ranked 26th in rushing yards allowed per game this season, and Eddie Lacy is still good for an occasional good game. The Redskins, however, are tied for 10th in the league for rushing touchdowns allowed with only 10 given up on the season. That means the Packers will likely have to find other ways to score once they get into the redzone. The Packers aren't facing a thunderously overwhelming defense such as that of the Chiefs or Seahawks, but it's a good enough defense at home that Rodgers and his weapons will have to execute nearly perfectly if they hope to keep up with a Redskins team that hasn't scored less than 34 points in a month.
THE PREDICTION
This Redskins team may not go beyond this round, but they're just as hot as any other NFC team in the last month, and a struggling Packers team should pose no serious threat. Aaron Rodgers has a Super Bowl ring, but his playoff record of 2-4 since winning that Super Bowl 5 years ago hasn't been phenomenal. The Redskins are currently red-hot, and they've held down the fort at home for nearly the entire season. Washington won't be able to keep the Packers from scoring altogether, but the Packers simply won't be able to keep up with a Washington offense that has been firing on all cylinders for the last month. Kirk Cousins has grown up, and DeSean Jackson's return has helped to open things up for all of the other offensive pieces.
PREDICTION: REDSKINS 33-21
THERE ARE MANY ISSUES WITH THE NFL SUCH AS HORRIBLE REFEREEING, FRUSTRATING RULE CHANGES, AND INCONSISTENT PUNISHMENT FOR PLAYERS, BUT THERE IS STILL NOTHING ELSE I'D RATHER BE WATCHING AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THAN PLAYOFF NFL FOOTBALL....LET'S JUST HOPE THAT THE RAVENS PARTICIPATE IN IT NEXT YEAR.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS
BUT JUST FOR TODAY AND FOR THE SAKE OF SO MANY OF MY FRIENDS
GO REDKINS!!
The Redskins, on the other hand, have changed from a team that lost 7 of its first 12 games to a team that won all of their final 4 games including 3 on the road. As I write this, I look at some idiotic ESPN article that states that Kirk Cousins hasn't beaten "top competition" this season, and that appears to be true--but the Packers are not what anyone should view is "top competition". Anyone who wants to label the Redskins as "bad" and the Packers as "good" needs to take a good hard look at the statistics for both teams, and that's just what we'll do.
THE STATS
To the credit of the Packers, 5 of their 8 road games resulted in victories for Rodgers and company. To problem with that record is that 3 of those 5 road victories came against divisional foes, and another one of the 5 came against the impossibly bad 49ers. In fact, the Packers had exactly one road win versus a team with a winning record, and that was their first win against the Vikings in Week 11. It's important to note that the Vikings then proceeded to beat the Packers last week IN Green Bay. When the Packers went up against their last playoff-caliber road foe in Arizona two weeks ago, they were beat like a drum to the tune of 38-8.
The Redskins, meanwhile, are have clearly found their offensive groove. Over the course of the last 4 games, Washington has scored an average of 32.75 points per game. Ordinarily I might say we should ignore stats accumulated on the road for a team that's playing at home, but that doesn't make a ton of sense in this case. The Redskins have fared quite well at home all season with a 6-2 record, and they beat the Bills 35-25 in their last game right outside D.C. The statistical trend appears more that the Redskins have finally found a way to score consistently regardless of the setting in which they play. The Redskins DEFENSE, however, appears to benefit quite substantially from being at home.
Washington's defense allowed a mediocre 23.7 points per game (17th in the NFL) this season, but their D allowed a more impressive 18.625 points at home. One can bet that a Skins fanbase that is impressively loyal year in and year out despite near-constant heartbreak will be raucous and will have yell itself collectively hoarse by the end of the game. Despite the comparatively pleasant weather, Landover, Maryland should not be a particularly inviting environment for the visiting Packers.
As homefield advantage doesn't seem particularly pronounced for the Packers this season, we'll simply use their last 10 games as our statistical sample size. The Packers, as I mentioned before, lost 6 of their last 10 games including 4 of their 5 games played against playoff teams during that time. During those 5 games against playoff teams, the Packers scored an average of 18 points per game.
So what was it that made everyone think the Packers were so good this season? Well that's simple: the James Jones factor. James Jones returned to the Packers this season after Jordy Nelson went down with a season-ending injury. Jones initially jumped right back into an elite level of production, and for the first 6 weeks of the season, Jones averaged 1 touchdown per game. The Packers were 6-0 during that period, and appeared to be right back to their typical Super Bowl contender form. After the first 6 weeks of the season, however, Jones averaged 0.2 touchdowns per game, and in the final 10 weeks of the season the Packers lost just as many games as they had won in that first, glorious month and a half. James Jones occasionally put up impressive performances, but those instances became SO occasional, that Jones' average receiving yards per game dropped to 46.6 over the final ten game stretch. Jones' only impressive receiving yardage totals of the final 10 games came against the Vikings against whom he appears to match up quite well. If one ignores the two games against the Vikings, Jones' receiving yards average per game over the last 10 weeks of the season falls to a depressing 31.875 per game. It appears as though father time has simply caught up to James Jones. He wasn't a true #1 receiver in the past, and if Jordy Nelson were still on this team, then it's possible Jones would have been more effective for a longer period of time this season. Nelson is NOT able to play now, and Jones...well Jones isn't really able to play much at all either.
The Packers are almost certainly going to lean on their rushing attack to take pressure off of Aaron Rodgers today. Washington ranked 26th in rushing yards allowed per game this season, and Eddie Lacy is still good for an occasional good game. The Redskins, however, are tied for 10th in the league for rushing touchdowns allowed with only 10 given up on the season. That means the Packers will likely have to find other ways to score once they get into the redzone. The Packers aren't facing a thunderously overwhelming defense such as that of the Chiefs or Seahawks, but it's a good enough defense at home that Rodgers and his weapons will have to execute nearly perfectly if they hope to keep up with a Redskins team that hasn't scored less than 34 points in a month.
THE PREDICTION
This Redskins team may not go beyond this round, but they're just as hot as any other NFC team in the last month, and a struggling Packers team should pose no serious threat. Aaron Rodgers has a Super Bowl ring, but his playoff record of 2-4 since winning that Super Bowl 5 years ago hasn't been phenomenal. The Redskins are currently red-hot, and they've held down the fort at home for nearly the entire season. Washington won't be able to keep the Packers from scoring altogether, but the Packers simply won't be able to keep up with a Washington offense that has been firing on all cylinders for the last month. Kirk Cousins has grown up, and DeSean Jackson's return has helped to open things up for all of the other offensive pieces.
PREDICTION: REDSKINS 33-21
THERE ARE MANY ISSUES WITH THE NFL SUCH AS HORRIBLE REFEREEING, FRUSTRATING RULE CHANGES, AND INCONSISTENT PUNISHMENT FOR PLAYERS, BUT THERE IS STILL NOTHING ELSE I'D RATHER BE WATCHING AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THAN PLAYOFF NFL FOOTBALL....LET'S JUST HOPE THAT THE RAVENS PARTICIPATE IN IT NEXT YEAR.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS
BUT JUST FOR TODAY AND FOR THE SAKE OF SO MANY OF MY FRIENDS
GO REDKINS!!
NFC WILDCARD ROUND PREDICTION: SEAHAWKS-VIKINGS
Well the Chiefs kept right on pace with their 30+ point road scoring average, but their defense utterly suffocated the Texan's with timely turnovers anytime the Texans appeared to gain any offensive momentum. The Bengals appeared to make an honest man out of me in my prediction they would win, and then they reminded the world that they know better than any team in the league how to torment their fans with playoff embarrassment. There's no question that Marvin Lewis should be on the hot seat after his players acted with reckless abandon in key moments that literally cost them the game. I haven't seen a team gift-wrap their opponent a close victory like that since Lee Evans failed to secure what would have been a game-winning catch, and Billy Cundiff began his descent into infamy with a missed 32 yard field goal. We, at the time, considered those errors inexcusable, but inexcusable doesn't even BEGIN to describe what a handful of Bengals players did with a lead, possession of the football and less than 2 minutes left in the game. First a fumble, then a perplexing pair of penalties that turned what could have been a 4th down stop to end the game into 30 yards of penalties that put the Steelers in game-winning field goal range.
I never like to see the Steelers win, but that Bengals team deserved to lose. They were painfully undisciplined in what should have been the final moments of the game. Marvin Lewis needs to be on the hot seat for not getting his players under control and allowing them to jeopardize their team's success with volatile behavior all game. I like a good AFC North slugfest, but the physicality needs to not cost the team the game. Hopefully we won't see another team self-destruct in that fashion between Sunday's AFC matchups. Let's dive right into analysis of the 1:00 game!
SEAHAWKS AT VIKINGS
The Seahawks, despite being inexplicably swept by the lowly Rams, are the NFC's hottest team. The problem is that they're about to enter the coldest environment in professional football at the moment. The weather in Minneapolis wouldn't have been an issue for visiting teams years ago, but the Vikings will host this playoff game at an outdoor stadium instead of their old dome of which the roof collapsed while the organization waits for its new stadium to be built. Despite the it's northern position, Seattle has a temperate climate which is nothing like the hellishly cold weather of Minnesota. The Seahawks announced that Marshawn Lynch WON'T play this week, so fans who thought they might see a showdown between the league's hardest running tailbacks will be sorely disappointed.
If the Seahawks are able to pull off a road victory here, the won't be the first team in recent memory to come into an environment with temperatures FAAAR below freezing and crush the dreams of the opposing team (I believe we all remember the greatest playoff game in Ravens history in Denver). Like that Ravens-Broncos game, this matchup features two teams that faced one another in the regular season, and the home team, Minnesota, was absolutely dominated. In this case, the Seahawks blasted the Vikings 38-7. Has enough changed about this matchup and the conditions in which it will be played that the Vikings might have a better shot? Let's see what the numbers have to say.
THE STATS
I'm baffled by the fact that the Rams have had the Seahawks' number in recent years. The Rams were, of course, absolutely horrendous this season, and they took the Seahawks down even when the Seahawks were in a red-hot 8-2 run in which Seattle seldom failed to score less than 30 points...that is, except against the Rams where they were held to 17. It is for this reason that I don't consider the Week 16 loss to the Rams to be statistically relevant. The Rams, after all, have put up incredible performances against the Seahawks in all three of the last regular seasons, and Seattle went to two Super Bowls during that time. The Rams' success against the 'Hawks, therefore, does not have any bearing on how the rest of the league fares against Russell Wilson and company, nor is it indicative of some sort of late-season downward trend. The Rams, much like the Ravens with the Steelers this season, simply match up well with their divisional rivals.
Even if we count the recent Rams game, the Seahawks scored and average of 28.9 points per game in their current 8-2 run. That number rises to a staggering 32 points per game if we're looking at just the last 8 weeks. The Seahawks will not be playing at home this week, so it's important that we look specifically just at how they fared on the road during that stretch. Like the Chiefs, the Seahawks absolutely dominated teams on the road as they scored an average of 28.4 points. That number rises to 36.33 if we're counting only the road games in the past 8 weeks. This Seahawks team simply doesn't struggle to score big on the road.
The Seahawks defense is nothing to scoff at either. During their current 8-2 run, the Seahawks allowed a staggering average of only 6.8 points per game on the road!! That means the Seahawks' average road differential over the last 10 game stretch is a mammoth 21.6 points. That is easily the best in the league. This game could be quite different than any of those games as the environment will be quite different than even the last time the Seahawks came to Minneapolis 5 weeks ago.
The temperature at game time in the last Seahawks-Vikings matchup was a workable 36 degrees. It is currently -9 degrees at the University of Minnesota football stadium; I get cold just THINKING about that. It should be harder for BOTH teams to pass the football, but I actually believe that goes in favor of the Seahawks.
The Minnesota Vikings, regardless of the weather, are a team the Seahawks were built to beat. The Vikings have a great running back in Adrian Peterson who rushed for more yards than any other player this season, but the Seahawks made him an absolute non-factor the last time both of these two teams met in Minnesota. Seattle possesses the 3rd ranked run defense in the league, and forced Teddy Bridgewater to throw the football. I like Bridgewater in general, but his best receiver this season, Stephon Diggs, only totalled just over 700 receiving yards on the season. The Seahawks will once again dare the Vikings to beat them through the air, and that will be a daunting task against a team that still possesses two of the league's best safeties and one of the best corner of the past 4 seasons.
Now the Vikings themselves allowed an impressive 18.9 points per game this season (5th in the league), but that simply didn't matter against the Seahawks offense as the Vikings only rank 17th in the league at stopping the run. Seahawks running back Thomas Rawls rushed for 101 yards, Russell Wilson rushed for 51 yards on 9 carries for an average of 5.7 yards per carry with a rushing touchdown. The Vikings, in fact, didn't even score on offense. Their only touchdown came off of a kickoff return.
THE PREDICTION
This game should be closer than the 38-7 blowout of 5 weeks ago as I don't believe the Seahawks will be able to throw with as much ease, but the Seahawks have an unquestionable advantage. Even though the Seahawks may not be able to throw quite as well, they still have more and better receiving weapons for which the Vikings must account. Russell Wilson's mobility will mean that Seattle will have multiple rushing threats on each play. Bridgewater is an athletic guy, but he doesn't run like Russell, nor can his team STOP the run like the Seahawks. Playoff football can always shock people, but there's nothing statistically or from game film that would suggest the Vikings can overcome their matchup deficiencies against a team that dominated them earlier this season. PREDICTION: SEAHAWKS 23-13
I never like to see the Steelers win, but that Bengals team deserved to lose. They were painfully undisciplined in what should have been the final moments of the game. Marvin Lewis needs to be on the hot seat for not getting his players under control and allowing them to jeopardize their team's success with volatile behavior all game. I like a good AFC North slugfest, but the physicality needs to not cost the team the game. Hopefully we won't see another team self-destruct in that fashion between Sunday's AFC matchups. Let's dive right into analysis of the 1:00 game!
SEAHAWKS AT VIKINGS
The Seahawks, despite being inexplicably swept by the lowly Rams, are the NFC's hottest team. The problem is that they're about to enter the coldest environment in professional football at the moment. The weather in Minneapolis wouldn't have been an issue for visiting teams years ago, but the Vikings will host this playoff game at an outdoor stadium instead of their old dome of which the roof collapsed while the organization waits for its new stadium to be built. Despite the it's northern position, Seattle has a temperate climate which is nothing like the hellishly cold weather of Minnesota. The Seahawks announced that Marshawn Lynch WON'T play this week, so fans who thought they might see a showdown between the league's hardest running tailbacks will be sorely disappointed.
If the Seahawks are able to pull off a road victory here, the won't be the first team in recent memory to come into an environment with temperatures FAAAR below freezing and crush the dreams of the opposing team (I believe we all remember the greatest playoff game in Ravens history in Denver). Like that Ravens-Broncos game, this matchup features two teams that faced one another in the regular season, and the home team, Minnesota, was absolutely dominated. In this case, the Seahawks blasted the Vikings 38-7. Has enough changed about this matchup and the conditions in which it will be played that the Vikings might have a better shot? Let's see what the numbers have to say.
THE STATS
I'm baffled by the fact that the Rams have had the Seahawks' number in recent years. The Rams were, of course, absolutely horrendous this season, and they took the Seahawks down even when the Seahawks were in a red-hot 8-2 run in which Seattle seldom failed to score less than 30 points...that is, except against the Rams where they were held to 17. It is for this reason that I don't consider the Week 16 loss to the Rams to be statistically relevant. The Rams, after all, have put up incredible performances against the Seahawks in all three of the last regular seasons, and Seattle went to two Super Bowls during that time. The Rams' success against the 'Hawks, therefore, does not have any bearing on how the rest of the league fares against Russell Wilson and company, nor is it indicative of some sort of late-season downward trend. The Rams, much like the Ravens with the Steelers this season, simply match up well with their divisional rivals.
Even if we count the recent Rams game, the Seahawks scored and average of 28.9 points per game in their current 8-2 run. That number rises to a staggering 32 points per game if we're looking at just the last 8 weeks. The Seahawks will not be playing at home this week, so it's important that we look specifically just at how they fared on the road during that stretch. Like the Chiefs, the Seahawks absolutely dominated teams on the road as they scored an average of 28.4 points. That number rises to 36.33 if we're counting only the road games in the past 8 weeks. This Seahawks team simply doesn't struggle to score big on the road.
The Seahawks defense is nothing to scoff at either. During their current 8-2 run, the Seahawks allowed a staggering average of only 6.8 points per game on the road!! That means the Seahawks' average road differential over the last 10 game stretch is a mammoth 21.6 points. That is easily the best in the league. This game could be quite different than any of those games as the environment will be quite different than even the last time the Seahawks came to Minneapolis 5 weeks ago.
The temperature at game time in the last Seahawks-Vikings matchup was a workable 36 degrees. It is currently -9 degrees at the University of Minnesota football stadium; I get cold just THINKING about that. It should be harder for BOTH teams to pass the football, but I actually believe that goes in favor of the Seahawks.
The Minnesota Vikings, regardless of the weather, are a team the Seahawks were built to beat. The Vikings have a great running back in Adrian Peterson who rushed for more yards than any other player this season, but the Seahawks made him an absolute non-factor the last time both of these two teams met in Minnesota. Seattle possesses the 3rd ranked run defense in the league, and forced Teddy Bridgewater to throw the football. I like Bridgewater in general, but his best receiver this season, Stephon Diggs, only totalled just over 700 receiving yards on the season. The Seahawks will once again dare the Vikings to beat them through the air, and that will be a daunting task against a team that still possesses two of the league's best safeties and one of the best corner of the past 4 seasons.
Now the Vikings themselves allowed an impressive 18.9 points per game this season (5th in the league), but that simply didn't matter against the Seahawks offense as the Vikings only rank 17th in the league at stopping the run. Seahawks running back Thomas Rawls rushed for 101 yards, Russell Wilson rushed for 51 yards on 9 carries for an average of 5.7 yards per carry with a rushing touchdown. The Vikings, in fact, didn't even score on offense. Their only touchdown came off of a kickoff return.
THE PREDICTION
This game should be closer than the 38-7 blowout of 5 weeks ago as I don't believe the Seahawks will be able to throw with as much ease, but the Seahawks have an unquestionable advantage. Even though the Seahawks may not be able to throw quite as well, they still have more and better receiving weapons for which the Vikings must account. Russell Wilson's mobility will mean that Seattle will have multiple rushing threats on each play. Bridgewater is an athletic guy, but he doesn't run like Russell, nor can his team STOP the run like the Seahawks. Playoff football can always shock people, but there's nothing statistically or from game film that would suggest the Vikings can overcome their matchup deficiencies against a team that dominated them earlier this season. PREDICTION: SEAHAWKS 23-13
Saturday, January 9, 2016
AFC WILDCARD ROUND PREDICTION: STEELERS AT BENGALS
I typically loathe both of these teams so much that I can see an upside to either team winning. In this case, however, I must say that I'm rooting for the Bengals as I want desperately to know that the Ravens didn't just sweep the Steelers for nothing. Sure, Pittsburgh got into the playoffs, but the Ravens two wins over black and yellow means that the Steelers didn't win the division and will, thus, play on the road in every game they could possibly play. There is a part of me that will chuckle if the Bengals once again lose as they haven't won a playoff game in decades. Make no mistake though, I don't a season sweep of the Steelers to mean absolutely nothing.
This game appears frustrating to predict as each team will be missing integral offensive cogs. The Bengals will be without Andy Dalton, and the Steelers will be without a starting-caliber running back for the second post-season opener in a row as both DeAngelo Williams and Le'Veon Bell are injured. In the case of the Bengals, the I will have a small number of games from which I can draw offensive statistics. A.J. McCarron has only played in 4 games this season, and only two of them were at home...and one of them was a loss to the Steelers. The Steelers, on the other hand, have not played a single game without Le'Veon Bell or DeAngelo Williams getting playing time, and that means the offensive statistics could be quite a bit less reliable.
Fortunately for the sake of this prediction, DeAngelo Williams came out early in last week's game against the Browns after having only 5 carries. We will treat that, therefore, as a game where the Steelers played without either of their starting running backs, but it certainly wasn't against a particularly dominant foe. In fact, that game illustrates a bit of a drop off in offensive production from the Steelers at the tail end of the season.
THE ANALYSIS
We're relegated to a rather limited pool of statistics from which to draw for aspects of this prediction, but the fact that these teams are divisional rivals means there are highly relevant games to examine.
One of the biggest factors talked about regarding the Steelers this season is their defense. I've heard the Steelers defense described as "horrible" and "one of the worst in the league" all season, but their average points allowed in road games this season doesn't reflect those colorful characterizations. The Steelers defense, in fact, allowed 21 points per game on the road this season, which isn't elite, but it's far from the worst the league. The big problem is that the Steelers only scored an average of 22.5 points per game on the road this season.
The Bengals home defense didn't look particularly effective as the Steelers put up 33 points in Cincy only 5 weeks ago. What may make those that score deceiving are the facts that both Andy Dalton AND the Bengals tight end, Tyler Eifert, came out of that game early on. It was A.J. McCarron's first time taking charge, and he was without the Bengals touchdown leader in Eifert. The Steelers were particularly vulnerable against tight ends this season (I know that because my fantasy football app told me...heh...), and they face a particularly elite tight end this weekend as Eifert is back and healthy. Eifert curiously enough did not score a touchdown against the Steelers in the first matchup between these two teams in Pittsburgh. He caught only 4 passes in that game for a total of 23 yards, but that was in Pittsburgh where the Steelers only allowed an average of 18.875 points per game this season.
Eifert may have not put up significant stats against the Steelers, but his presence undoubtedly means Pittsburgh must commit to stopping him. The last time the Steelers faced the Bengals with A.J. McCarron at the helm, the Steelers sacked the rookie quarterback 3 times. McCarron holds the ball a significant moment on average longer than Andy Dalton, and that means the Steelers will have an easier time applying pressure. Last week McCarron displayed difficulty completing passes when he was flushed out of the pocket, so the Steelers will almost certainly rush the passer aggressively. This only further illustrates the importance of a healthy Tyler Eifert as he could be a quickly escape valve to which McCarron can dump off the ball.
I don't know if it's the worst thing in the world for the Bengals that Andy Dalton isn't playing tonight. Dalton has 6 interceptions and only a single passing touchdown in his playoff career--that's embarrassing. He is undoubtedly more successful in the regular season, but one has to wonder if Red Rocket gets some kind of post-season jitters that make him a shell of the player he was when it's not do or die. The Steelers will have their starting quarterback, but they'll be without easily one of their most important weapons. Everyone talks about Antonio Brown, and there's no denying his talent, but DeAngelo Williams has added a dimension to an offense that usually struggles against good teams without Le'Veon Bell. Williams, in fact, had two rushing touchdowns against the Bengals in Week 14, and they literally would have lost the game without his production. Williams' backup, Fitzgerald Toussaint, rushed for an embarrassing 24 yards on 12 carries for a horrendous 2 yards per carry against an atrocious Browns run defense last week. It's safe to say that the Steelers will be far more one-dimensional tonight, and that means it's open season on Ben Roethlisberger.
THE PREDICTION
The Bengals defense has allowed an average of only 17.5 points per game at home this season. Their defensive backs looked impressive last week, and their redzone defense is among the best in the league. Without DeAngelo Williams to pound the rock in the redzone, it will be rather difficult for the Steelers to score. A.J. McCarron will have more weapons than he has had thus far this season, and Tyler Eifert appeared to have no rust to knock off last week when he caught an impressive touchdown against the Ravens. I'm going to go out on a limb and say this Steelers team will once again not be the same without a formidable rushing threat to take pressure off of Ben Roethlisberger. No one should underestimate the role which DeAngelo Williams played in the impressive offensive streak the Steelers enjoyed througout much of the mid-season. When this Steelers offense becomes one-dimensional, it becomes entirely beatable. I would have liked to use more statistics to back this prediction up, but Andy Dalton and DeAngelo Williams' absences leave us estimating their respective values to these teams. PREDICTION: BENGALS 24-20
IT WOULD NOT SHOCK ME FOR THE STEELERS TO WIN THIS GAME IF THEY'RE ONCE AGAIN ABLE TO RATTLE A.J. MCCARRON AND FORCE TURNOVERS, BUT I BELIEVE THEIR DEFENSE WILL BE ON THE FIELD FOR FAR MORE TIME IN THIS GAME AS THE STEELERS OFFENSE WILL BE ABLE TO EAT UP LESS CLOCK AND FINISH FEWER DRIVES WITHOUT A SERIOUS RUSHING THREAT. THE BENGALS HAVEN'T WON A PLAYOFF GAME IN DECADES, AND THE STEELERS HAVEN'T WON A PLAYOFF GAME IN 5 YEARS. WE'LL SEE WHICH TEAM BUCKS THE TREND.
STAY TUNED FOR NFC WILDCARD ROUND ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!! (GO GET HEALTHY)
This game appears frustrating to predict as each team will be missing integral offensive cogs. The Bengals will be without Andy Dalton, and the Steelers will be without a starting-caliber running back for the second post-season opener in a row as both DeAngelo Williams and Le'Veon Bell are injured. In the case of the Bengals, the I will have a small number of games from which I can draw offensive statistics. A.J. McCarron has only played in 4 games this season, and only two of them were at home...and one of them was a loss to the Steelers. The Steelers, on the other hand, have not played a single game without Le'Veon Bell or DeAngelo Williams getting playing time, and that means the offensive statistics could be quite a bit less reliable.
Fortunately for the sake of this prediction, DeAngelo Williams came out early in last week's game against the Browns after having only 5 carries. We will treat that, therefore, as a game where the Steelers played without either of their starting running backs, but it certainly wasn't against a particularly dominant foe. In fact, that game illustrates a bit of a drop off in offensive production from the Steelers at the tail end of the season.
THE ANALYSIS
We're relegated to a rather limited pool of statistics from which to draw for aspects of this prediction, but the fact that these teams are divisional rivals means there are highly relevant games to examine.
One of the biggest factors talked about regarding the Steelers this season is their defense. I've heard the Steelers defense described as "horrible" and "one of the worst in the league" all season, but their average points allowed in road games this season doesn't reflect those colorful characterizations. The Steelers defense, in fact, allowed 21 points per game on the road this season, which isn't elite, but it's far from the worst the league. The big problem is that the Steelers only scored an average of 22.5 points per game on the road this season.
The Bengals home defense didn't look particularly effective as the Steelers put up 33 points in Cincy only 5 weeks ago. What may make those that score deceiving are the facts that both Andy Dalton AND the Bengals tight end, Tyler Eifert, came out of that game early on. It was A.J. McCarron's first time taking charge, and he was without the Bengals touchdown leader in Eifert. The Steelers were particularly vulnerable against tight ends this season (I know that because my fantasy football app told me...heh...), and they face a particularly elite tight end this weekend as Eifert is back and healthy. Eifert curiously enough did not score a touchdown against the Steelers in the first matchup between these two teams in Pittsburgh. He caught only 4 passes in that game for a total of 23 yards, but that was in Pittsburgh where the Steelers only allowed an average of 18.875 points per game this season.
Eifert may have not put up significant stats against the Steelers, but his presence undoubtedly means Pittsburgh must commit to stopping him. The last time the Steelers faced the Bengals with A.J. McCarron at the helm, the Steelers sacked the rookie quarterback 3 times. McCarron holds the ball a significant moment on average longer than Andy Dalton, and that means the Steelers will have an easier time applying pressure. Last week McCarron displayed difficulty completing passes when he was flushed out of the pocket, so the Steelers will almost certainly rush the passer aggressively. This only further illustrates the importance of a healthy Tyler Eifert as he could be a quickly escape valve to which McCarron can dump off the ball.
I don't know if it's the worst thing in the world for the Bengals that Andy Dalton isn't playing tonight. Dalton has 6 interceptions and only a single passing touchdown in his playoff career--that's embarrassing. He is undoubtedly more successful in the regular season, but one has to wonder if Red Rocket gets some kind of post-season jitters that make him a shell of the player he was when it's not do or die. The Steelers will have their starting quarterback, but they'll be without easily one of their most important weapons. Everyone talks about Antonio Brown, and there's no denying his talent, but DeAngelo Williams has added a dimension to an offense that usually struggles against good teams without Le'Veon Bell. Williams, in fact, had two rushing touchdowns against the Bengals in Week 14, and they literally would have lost the game without his production. Williams' backup, Fitzgerald Toussaint, rushed for an embarrassing 24 yards on 12 carries for a horrendous 2 yards per carry against an atrocious Browns run defense last week. It's safe to say that the Steelers will be far more one-dimensional tonight, and that means it's open season on Ben Roethlisberger.
THE PREDICTION
The Bengals defense has allowed an average of only 17.5 points per game at home this season. Their defensive backs looked impressive last week, and their redzone defense is among the best in the league. Without DeAngelo Williams to pound the rock in the redzone, it will be rather difficult for the Steelers to score. A.J. McCarron will have more weapons than he has had thus far this season, and Tyler Eifert appeared to have no rust to knock off last week when he caught an impressive touchdown against the Ravens. I'm going to go out on a limb and say this Steelers team will once again not be the same without a formidable rushing threat to take pressure off of Ben Roethlisberger. No one should underestimate the role which DeAngelo Williams played in the impressive offensive streak the Steelers enjoyed througout much of the mid-season. When this Steelers offense becomes one-dimensional, it becomes entirely beatable. I would have liked to use more statistics to back this prediction up, but Andy Dalton and DeAngelo Williams' absences leave us estimating their respective values to these teams. PREDICTION: BENGALS 24-20
IT WOULD NOT SHOCK ME FOR THE STEELERS TO WIN THIS GAME IF THEY'RE ONCE AGAIN ABLE TO RATTLE A.J. MCCARRON AND FORCE TURNOVERS, BUT I BELIEVE THEIR DEFENSE WILL BE ON THE FIELD FOR FAR MORE TIME IN THIS GAME AS THE STEELERS OFFENSE WILL BE ABLE TO EAT UP LESS CLOCK AND FINISH FEWER DRIVES WITHOUT A SERIOUS RUSHING THREAT. THE BENGALS HAVEN'T WON A PLAYOFF GAME IN DECADES, AND THE STEELERS HAVEN'T WON A PLAYOFF GAME IN 5 YEARS. WE'LL SEE WHICH TEAM BUCKS THE TREND.
STAY TUNED FOR NFC WILDCARD ROUND ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!! (GO GET HEALTHY)
AFC WILDCARD ROUND PLAYOFF PREDICTION: CHIEFS AT TEXANS
A QUICK RAVENS RETROSPECTIVE BEFORE THE PICK
It's troubling for many Ravens fans that their beloved team has not made the playoffs two out of the last 3 seasons. 2015 was arguably one of the worst seasons in the team's history and easily the worst season in John Harbaugh's career as a head coach. I, instead, believe at this point that this season was doomed for reasons beyond the control of the coaching staff and front office. People call in to 105.7 The Fan and complain about Ozzie Newsome's recent lack of success with early round draft picks. They whine about the Ravens not putting into the receiving corps, and the STILL whine about the decision to trade away Anquan Boldin for a measly late round draft pick. Too many, however, have neglected to examine that first domino that sent so many things toppling over during the past 3 seasons--Ray Rice.
During the four seasons from 2009 to 2012, Ray Rice had the most all-purpose yards of any player in the NFL. That's correct; more than Adrian Peterson, more than Marshawn Lynch, and more than LeSean McCoy. The math was quite simple: the Ravens won an overwhelming number of games when Ray Rice was given 25+ touches per game, and they lost nearly every time he was held to 15 touches or less. During the 2013 season, Ray Rice experienced a major lull in his production. Much of that lull can be attributed to poor offensive line play and turmoil from having what boiled down to two offensive line coaches. In addition, Rice had become heavier in an effort to stay durable as his career carries total advanced, and that appeared to reduce is burst and elusiveness. Ray suffered a hip flexor injury early in the season that never fully recovered until the subsequent off-season--and boy what an off-season that was for lil Ray...
Ray Rice made it a goal to drop weight and get back into dynamic shape for the 2014 season, and then, of course, he knocked his fiance out. Ray appeared to run quite well in the preseason, but then video surfaced of his brutal blow and the Ravens had no choice but to cut him once the truly devastating nature of the assault became realized by the footage. Suddenly the Ravens were not only without the most crucial offensive weapon of the last 4 years, but they were stuck with a crippling amount of dead money because cutting Rice actually INCREASED the amount to which he counted against the salary cap. That amount of dead money hit a peak this past season to nearly 10 million dollars, and that coupled with the Pitta's functionally dead money meant the Ravens couldn't make a serious run at a host of free agents that could have added depth at the wide receiver, safety, and corner positions. Hell, an extra 12-15 million dollars in cap space would have meant the Ravens could have re-signed Torrey Smith AND gone after another veteran receiver and a corner. That's such an incredible amount of extra cap space that the Ravens just didn't have...nearly entirely because of Ray Rice.
So say what you want about Ozzie Newsome, and say what you want about some of the players he has drafted early in recent seasons, but if Ray Rice had not created such a devastating salary cap black hole things could look quite different right now. Of course injuries played a major role in the doomed nature of the 2015 season, but if given a healthy amount of wiggle room to sign and trade for other players, Ozzie could have procured better talent and depth. Ok, enough about the Ravens. They're not in the playoffs, so let's take a look at the teams that are.
AFC WILDCARD PICKS AND ANALYSIS
CHIEFS AT TEXANS
'This is one of the best matchups of the playoffs as it features two teams that started the season in such embarrassing fashion that no one seemed to give either franchise a prayer of making the playoffs. The Chiefs began the season 1-5, and the Texans began the season 2-5. The Chiefs went on a 10 game winning streak despite having lost their star running back, Jamaal Charles, while the Texans found their mojo defensively and proceeded to win big games despite the absence of a serious, franchise quarterback.
Before going any further, I must remind readers that in order to come to derive accurate predictions from statistical analysis, we first must eliminate statistics that are, for one reason or another, not relevant or applicable. Choosing which statistics are irrelevant can be tricky, but it's ultimately the key that separates thoughtful analysis from pseudoanalysis and baseless guessing. In the case of the Chiefs and Texans, we can throw out the statistics of both teams during their respective 1-5 and 2-5 starts. The Chiefs were forced to make fundamental changes to their offense when the focal point of their offense, the aforementioned Jamaal Charles, went down with a season-ending knee injury. Charles suddenly couldn't be the focal point of their offense, and more weight was placed on Alex Smith's shoulders--and boy has he held it well.
The Texans' current starting quarterback, Brian Hoyer only passed for just over 2,600 yards this season, and that was mostly due to the fact that he only played in 11 games. Hoyer did throw an impressive 19 touchdowns despite his limited number of games, and averaged a respectable 236 passing yards per game. Before last week, Brandon Weeden started two games for the Texans with good success as he won both. Hoyer, thus, could easily be benched if the Texans find themselves struggling early against the Chiefs. Despite a decent yardage average and a high number of touchdown passes, the Texans have actually lost more games than they've won when Brian Hoyer has played. Hoyer is 5-6 on the season including a season-opening loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs are the unquestionably hotter team coming into the wildcard round. Kansas City, in fact, is the hottest team in football. There are other teams with better records such as the Patriots, Panthers, Bengals, and Broncos, but the Chiefs are the only team that hasn't lost in months. It is their current 10-game winning streak that has made the Chiefs to be the favorites in the eyes of many entering the wildcard round. The Chiefs have not only had to figure out how to produce on offense without Jamaal Charles, but they've also had to had to find the ability to generate a pass rush without the consistent presence and health of Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. Houston, despite being the team sack leader, hasn't played since November, but the Chiefs still managed to sack an incredibly mobile Derek Carr a whopping 6 times last week. Suffice it to say that Andy Reid knows how to roll with the punches when his marquee players go down.
THE STATS
This game will be played in Houston, so we will ignore statistics (except to compare home vs. road performance) accured on the road by the Texans, and statistics accured at home by the Chiefs. We will also ignore stats accured by both teams during their respective early season slumps.
During their current winning streak, the Chiefs have played 4 road games with a startling level of offensive production scoring an average 32.5 points per game. It's not as though all of these games came against horrible teams. The Chiefs absolutely throttled the Broncos in Denver 29-13, they demolished the Chargers 33-3, they beat a fairly formidable foe in Oakland, and crushed the Ravens in Baltimore. So ok, the Ravens and Chargers both had major down years, but the traveling across the country to face Philip Rivers is always a challenge, and the Ravens actually ranked 8th in total defense in the second half of the season. Scoring 34+ points in Baltimore is a feat accoplished otherwise only by the red-hot Seahawks this season. Scoring 29 points IN DENVER is impressive. The Broncos own one of the league's best offenses this season, and Denver beat the Chiefs in Kansas City earlier this season.
The truly strange fact is that the Chiefs actually produced far more on the road than at home during their current winning streak. Kansas City only beat the Raiders 23-17 at home to finish out the season, and they beat the Chargers 10-3 at home. It is, therefore, possible that Andy Reid has far more confidence in his team's ability to play defense behind a home crowd and is, therefore, more conservative in his offensive approach at home than on the road. Whatever the reason, the Chiefs scored an average of 24.6 points and allowed an average of 13 points at home and scored 32.5 points 12.5 points on the road during this winning stretch. I must note that the Chiefs DID allow less points during the aforementioned road games, but a MUCH higher level of offensive production means far less pressure on the defense, and thus, the level of defensive play at home was substantially more impressive. The Chiefs' home offensive production would have been more lower had it not been for an utter blowout (45-10) of the Lions shortly before Kansas City's bye week.
The Houston Texans' statistics won't be as tricky as they might have been because the two games that Brandon Weeden started in the last month were on the road and are, therefore, not taken into account in a home prediction. There is, however, one key home game wherein T.J. Yates started in place of Hoyer, and no offensive stats will be significant from that, though the defensive stats WILL be counted towards the ultimate prediction. The Texans scored a mediocre 20 points per game (21 if you figure in the Jets game) at home during their current successful stretch. Houston allowed an impressive 12.4 points per game during that same time period. There's no question that the Texans play dominant defense at home, and the combination of J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus is a BIG reason. Watt and Mercilus combined for 29.5 sacks, which is one half sack better than the Suggs-Dumveril tandem from last season. The Texans had an impressive 45 sacks on the season which is only 2 sacks behind the Chiefs with 47.
THE PREDICTION
I realize as I look over the Texans' home opponents during their current successful stretch of football that they faced almost exclusively horrendous opponents, and the one time they played an elite offensive team at home during that time was an utter failure. The Patriots destroyed and dominanted the Texans 27-6 in Week 14, and every other win except that against the Jets was against a team with a losing record. Winning games in the NFL is always difficult regardless of which teams you face as the Ravens found out this season. Wins over poor teams at home, however, mean quite a lot less when you're facing a team that scores an average of 32.5 points on the road. If the Patriots were able to go into Houston and blast the Texans during a period of limited receiving weapons for Brady, it's difficult for me to imagine the Texans team that only scores 20 points at home going up against the hottest team in football with a full array of pass rushers and coming out victorious.
The key to this game is Alex Smith's mobility and his low rate of turnover. Smith threw only 7 interceptions this season in 16 games. Hoyer also threw 7 interceptions, but he did so in only 11 games. This is a matchup of two defensive stout teams, but only one of these teams has the ability to put up elite offensive numbers. The Chiefs have beaten better teams than the Texans this season, and they've even beaten the Texans albeit many months ago. PREDICTION: CHIEFS 24-17
STAY TUNED FOR THE STEELERS-BENGALS PREDICTION WHICH WILL BE POSTED SHORTLY
It's troubling for many Ravens fans that their beloved team has not made the playoffs two out of the last 3 seasons. 2015 was arguably one of the worst seasons in the team's history and easily the worst season in John Harbaugh's career as a head coach. I, instead, believe at this point that this season was doomed for reasons beyond the control of the coaching staff and front office. People call in to 105.7 The Fan and complain about Ozzie Newsome's recent lack of success with early round draft picks. They whine about the Ravens not putting into the receiving corps, and the STILL whine about the decision to trade away Anquan Boldin for a measly late round draft pick. Too many, however, have neglected to examine that first domino that sent so many things toppling over during the past 3 seasons--Ray Rice.
During the four seasons from 2009 to 2012, Ray Rice had the most all-purpose yards of any player in the NFL. That's correct; more than Adrian Peterson, more than Marshawn Lynch, and more than LeSean McCoy. The math was quite simple: the Ravens won an overwhelming number of games when Ray Rice was given 25+ touches per game, and they lost nearly every time he was held to 15 touches or less. During the 2013 season, Ray Rice experienced a major lull in his production. Much of that lull can be attributed to poor offensive line play and turmoil from having what boiled down to two offensive line coaches. In addition, Rice had become heavier in an effort to stay durable as his career carries total advanced, and that appeared to reduce is burst and elusiveness. Ray suffered a hip flexor injury early in the season that never fully recovered until the subsequent off-season--and boy what an off-season that was for lil Ray...
Ray Rice made it a goal to drop weight and get back into dynamic shape for the 2014 season, and then, of course, he knocked his fiance out. Ray appeared to run quite well in the preseason, but then video surfaced of his brutal blow and the Ravens had no choice but to cut him once the truly devastating nature of the assault became realized by the footage. Suddenly the Ravens were not only without the most crucial offensive weapon of the last 4 years, but they were stuck with a crippling amount of dead money because cutting Rice actually INCREASED the amount to which he counted against the salary cap. That amount of dead money hit a peak this past season to nearly 10 million dollars, and that coupled with the Pitta's functionally dead money meant the Ravens couldn't make a serious run at a host of free agents that could have added depth at the wide receiver, safety, and corner positions. Hell, an extra 12-15 million dollars in cap space would have meant the Ravens could have re-signed Torrey Smith AND gone after another veteran receiver and a corner. That's such an incredible amount of extra cap space that the Ravens just didn't have...nearly entirely because of Ray Rice.
So say what you want about Ozzie Newsome, and say what you want about some of the players he has drafted early in recent seasons, but if Ray Rice had not created such a devastating salary cap black hole things could look quite different right now. Of course injuries played a major role in the doomed nature of the 2015 season, but if given a healthy amount of wiggle room to sign and trade for other players, Ozzie could have procured better talent and depth. Ok, enough about the Ravens. They're not in the playoffs, so let's take a look at the teams that are.
AFC WILDCARD PICKS AND ANALYSIS
CHIEFS AT TEXANS
'This is one of the best matchups of the playoffs as it features two teams that started the season in such embarrassing fashion that no one seemed to give either franchise a prayer of making the playoffs. The Chiefs began the season 1-5, and the Texans began the season 2-5. The Chiefs went on a 10 game winning streak despite having lost their star running back, Jamaal Charles, while the Texans found their mojo defensively and proceeded to win big games despite the absence of a serious, franchise quarterback.
Before going any further, I must remind readers that in order to come to derive accurate predictions from statistical analysis, we first must eliminate statistics that are, for one reason or another, not relevant or applicable. Choosing which statistics are irrelevant can be tricky, but it's ultimately the key that separates thoughtful analysis from pseudoanalysis and baseless guessing. In the case of the Chiefs and Texans, we can throw out the statistics of both teams during their respective 1-5 and 2-5 starts. The Chiefs were forced to make fundamental changes to their offense when the focal point of their offense, the aforementioned Jamaal Charles, went down with a season-ending knee injury. Charles suddenly couldn't be the focal point of their offense, and more weight was placed on Alex Smith's shoulders--and boy has he held it well.
The Texans' current starting quarterback, Brian Hoyer only passed for just over 2,600 yards this season, and that was mostly due to the fact that he only played in 11 games. Hoyer did throw an impressive 19 touchdowns despite his limited number of games, and averaged a respectable 236 passing yards per game. Before last week, Brandon Weeden started two games for the Texans with good success as he won both. Hoyer, thus, could easily be benched if the Texans find themselves struggling early against the Chiefs. Despite a decent yardage average and a high number of touchdown passes, the Texans have actually lost more games than they've won when Brian Hoyer has played. Hoyer is 5-6 on the season including a season-opening loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs are the unquestionably hotter team coming into the wildcard round. Kansas City, in fact, is the hottest team in football. There are other teams with better records such as the Patriots, Panthers, Bengals, and Broncos, but the Chiefs are the only team that hasn't lost in months. It is their current 10-game winning streak that has made the Chiefs to be the favorites in the eyes of many entering the wildcard round. The Chiefs have not only had to figure out how to produce on offense without Jamaal Charles, but they've also had to had to find the ability to generate a pass rush without the consistent presence and health of Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. Houston, despite being the team sack leader, hasn't played since November, but the Chiefs still managed to sack an incredibly mobile Derek Carr a whopping 6 times last week. Suffice it to say that Andy Reid knows how to roll with the punches when his marquee players go down.
THE STATS
This game will be played in Houston, so we will ignore statistics (except to compare home vs. road performance) accured on the road by the Texans, and statistics accured at home by the Chiefs. We will also ignore stats accured by both teams during their respective early season slumps.
During their current winning streak, the Chiefs have played 4 road games with a startling level of offensive production scoring an average 32.5 points per game. It's not as though all of these games came against horrible teams. The Chiefs absolutely throttled the Broncos in Denver 29-13, they demolished the Chargers 33-3, they beat a fairly formidable foe in Oakland, and crushed the Ravens in Baltimore. So ok, the Ravens and Chargers both had major down years, but the traveling across the country to face Philip Rivers is always a challenge, and the Ravens actually ranked 8th in total defense in the second half of the season. Scoring 34+ points in Baltimore is a feat accoplished otherwise only by the red-hot Seahawks this season. Scoring 29 points IN DENVER is impressive. The Broncos own one of the league's best offenses this season, and Denver beat the Chiefs in Kansas City earlier this season.
The truly strange fact is that the Chiefs actually produced far more on the road than at home during their current winning streak. Kansas City only beat the Raiders 23-17 at home to finish out the season, and they beat the Chargers 10-3 at home. It is, therefore, possible that Andy Reid has far more confidence in his team's ability to play defense behind a home crowd and is, therefore, more conservative in his offensive approach at home than on the road. Whatever the reason, the Chiefs scored an average of 24.6 points and allowed an average of 13 points at home and scored 32.5 points 12.5 points on the road during this winning stretch. I must note that the Chiefs DID allow less points during the aforementioned road games, but a MUCH higher level of offensive production means far less pressure on the defense, and thus, the level of defensive play at home was substantially more impressive. The Chiefs' home offensive production would have been more lower had it not been for an utter blowout (45-10) of the Lions shortly before Kansas City's bye week.
The Houston Texans' statistics won't be as tricky as they might have been because the two games that Brandon Weeden started in the last month were on the road and are, therefore, not taken into account in a home prediction. There is, however, one key home game wherein T.J. Yates started in place of Hoyer, and no offensive stats will be significant from that, though the defensive stats WILL be counted towards the ultimate prediction. The Texans scored a mediocre 20 points per game (21 if you figure in the Jets game) at home during their current successful stretch. Houston allowed an impressive 12.4 points per game during that same time period. There's no question that the Texans play dominant defense at home, and the combination of J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus is a BIG reason. Watt and Mercilus combined for 29.5 sacks, which is one half sack better than the Suggs-Dumveril tandem from last season. The Texans had an impressive 45 sacks on the season which is only 2 sacks behind the Chiefs with 47.
THE PREDICTION
I realize as I look over the Texans' home opponents during their current successful stretch of football that they faced almost exclusively horrendous opponents, and the one time they played an elite offensive team at home during that time was an utter failure. The Patriots destroyed and dominanted the Texans 27-6 in Week 14, and every other win except that against the Jets was against a team with a losing record. Winning games in the NFL is always difficult regardless of which teams you face as the Ravens found out this season. Wins over poor teams at home, however, mean quite a lot less when you're facing a team that scores an average of 32.5 points on the road. If the Patriots were able to go into Houston and blast the Texans during a period of limited receiving weapons for Brady, it's difficult for me to imagine the Texans team that only scores 20 points at home going up against the hottest team in football with a full array of pass rushers and coming out victorious.
The key to this game is Alex Smith's mobility and his low rate of turnover. Smith threw only 7 interceptions this season in 16 games. Hoyer also threw 7 interceptions, but he did so in only 11 games. This is a matchup of two defensive stout teams, but only one of these teams has the ability to put up elite offensive numbers. The Chiefs have beaten better teams than the Texans this season, and they've even beaten the Texans albeit many months ago. PREDICTION: CHIEFS 24-17
STAY TUNED FOR THE STEELERS-BENGALS PREDICTION WHICH WILL BE POSTED SHORTLY
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