I typically loathe both of these teams so much that I can see an upside to either team winning. In this case, however, I must say that I'm rooting for the Bengals as I want desperately to know that the Ravens didn't just sweep the Steelers for nothing. Sure, Pittsburgh got into the playoffs, but the Ravens two wins over black and yellow means that the Steelers didn't win the division and will, thus, play on the road in every game they could possibly play. There is a part of me that will chuckle if the Bengals once again lose as they haven't won a playoff game in decades. Make no mistake though, I don't a season sweep of the Steelers to mean absolutely nothing.
This game appears frustrating to predict as each team will be missing integral offensive cogs. The Bengals will be without Andy Dalton, and the Steelers will be without a starting-caliber running back for the second post-season opener in a row as both DeAngelo Williams and Le'Veon Bell are injured. In the case of the Bengals, the I will have a small number of games from which I can draw offensive statistics. A.J. McCarron has only played in 4 games this season, and only two of them were at home...and one of them was a loss to the Steelers. The Steelers, on the other hand, have not played a single game without Le'Veon Bell or DeAngelo Williams getting playing time, and that means the offensive statistics could be quite a bit less reliable.
Fortunately for the sake of this prediction, DeAngelo Williams came out early in last week's game against the Browns after having only 5 carries. We will treat that, therefore, as a game where the Steelers played without either of their starting running backs, but it certainly wasn't against a particularly dominant foe. In fact, that game illustrates a bit of a drop off in offensive production from the Steelers at the tail end of the season.
THE ANALYSIS
We're relegated to a rather limited pool of statistics from which to draw for aspects of this prediction, but the fact that these teams are divisional rivals means there are highly relevant games to examine.
One of the biggest factors talked about regarding the Steelers this season is their defense. I've heard the Steelers defense described as "horrible" and "one of the worst in the league" all season, but their average points allowed in road games this season doesn't reflect those colorful characterizations. The Steelers defense, in fact, allowed 21 points per game on the road this season, which isn't elite, but it's far from the worst the league. The big problem is that the Steelers only scored an average of 22.5 points per game on the road this season.
The Bengals home defense didn't look particularly effective as the Steelers put up 33 points in Cincy only 5 weeks ago. What may make those that score deceiving are the facts that both Andy Dalton AND the Bengals tight end, Tyler Eifert, came out of that game early on. It was A.J. McCarron's first time taking charge, and he was without the Bengals touchdown leader in Eifert. The Steelers were particularly vulnerable against tight ends this season (I know that because my fantasy football app told me...heh...), and they face a particularly elite tight end this weekend as Eifert is back and healthy. Eifert curiously enough did not score a touchdown against the Steelers in the first matchup between these two teams in Pittsburgh. He caught only 4 passes in that game for a total of 23 yards, but that was in Pittsburgh where the Steelers only allowed an average of 18.875 points per game this season.
Eifert may have not put up significant stats against the Steelers, but his presence undoubtedly means Pittsburgh must commit to stopping him. The last time the Steelers faced the Bengals with A.J. McCarron at the helm, the Steelers sacked the rookie quarterback 3 times. McCarron holds the ball a significant moment on average longer than Andy Dalton, and that means the Steelers will have an easier time applying pressure. Last week McCarron displayed difficulty completing passes when he was flushed out of the pocket, so the Steelers will almost certainly rush the passer aggressively. This only further illustrates the importance of a healthy Tyler Eifert as he could be a quickly escape valve to which McCarron can dump off the ball.
I don't know if it's the worst thing in the world for the Bengals that Andy Dalton isn't playing tonight. Dalton has 6 interceptions and only a single passing touchdown in his playoff career--that's embarrassing. He is undoubtedly more successful in the regular season, but one has to wonder if Red Rocket gets some kind of post-season jitters that make him a shell of the player he was when it's not do or die. The Steelers will have their starting quarterback, but they'll be without easily one of their most important weapons. Everyone talks about Antonio Brown, and there's no denying his talent, but DeAngelo Williams has added a dimension to an offense that usually struggles against good teams without Le'Veon Bell. Williams, in fact, had two rushing touchdowns against the Bengals in Week 14, and they literally would have lost the game without his production. Williams' backup, Fitzgerald Toussaint, rushed for an embarrassing 24 yards on 12 carries for a horrendous 2 yards per carry against an atrocious Browns run defense last week. It's safe to say that the Steelers will be far more one-dimensional tonight, and that means it's open season on Ben Roethlisberger.
THE PREDICTION
The Bengals defense has allowed an average of only 17.5 points per game at home this season. Their defensive backs looked impressive last week, and their redzone defense is among the best in the league. Without DeAngelo Williams to pound the rock in the redzone, it will be rather difficult for the Steelers to score. A.J. McCarron will have more weapons than he has had thus far this season, and Tyler Eifert appeared to have no rust to knock off last week when he caught an impressive touchdown against the Ravens. I'm going to go out on a limb and say this Steelers team will once again not be the same without a formidable rushing threat to take pressure off of Ben Roethlisberger. No one should underestimate the role which DeAngelo Williams played in the impressive offensive streak the Steelers enjoyed througout much of the mid-season. When this Steelers offense becomes one-dimensional, it becomes entirely beatable. I would have liked to use more statistics to back this prediction up, but Andy Dalton and DeAngelo Williams' absences leave us estimating their respective values to these teams. PREDICTION: BENGALS 24-20
IT WOULD NOT SHOCK ME FOR THE STEELERS TO WIN THIS GAME IF THEY'RE ONCE AGAIN ABLE TO RATTLE A.J. MCCARRON AND FORCE TURNOVERS, BUT I BELIEVE THEIR DEFENSE WILL BE ON THE FIELD FOR FAR MORE TIME IN THIS GAME AS THE STEELERS OFFENSE WILL BE ABLE TO EAT UP LESS CLOCK AND FINISH FEWER DRIVES WITHOUT A SERIOUS RUSHING THREAT. THE BENGALS HAVEN'T WON A PLAYOFF GAME IN DECADES, AND THE STEELERS HAVEN'T WON A PLAYOFF GAME IN 5 YEARS. WE'LL SEE WHICH TEAM BUCKS THE TREND.
STAY TUNED FOR NFC WILDCARD ROUND ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!! (GO GET HEALTHY)
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