As I write this, the Carolina Panthers possess a 24-0 second quarter lead over the Seahawks. For the moment, Cam Newton and company had made my last prediction into a hilarious joke. As it turns out, rest is a big deal in the NFL. That fact certainly rings true for this evening's contest between the Steelers and Broncos. The Broncos are coming off of a bye week while the Steelers are utterly crippled by major injuries. It's not enough that the Steelers' quarterback will hampered by a sprained AC joint and torn ligaments in his throwing arm, but the receiver with which that quarterback connected for 40% of his passing yards will be off the field. It's not that the Steelers don't have other receivers, but Markus Wheaton, Martavis Bryant, and Darrius Heyward-Bey comprise a far less daunting group than Wheaton, Bryant, and Antonio Brown. Big Ben has absolutely won many playoff games (not recently) with far less receiving options, but when he won those games, he had a ferocious defense and strong running game to help--he also had a functioning throwing arm.
Peyton Manning's body has failed him disastrously in the past two seasons. He went from two exceptional seasons with the Broncos to two years of physical collapse. Manning's injuries got so bad this season that his backup had to come in to play for a stretch. The last time a Peyton Manning backup played multiple games, Manning's team won the least games in the NFL and drafted Andrew Luck in the off-season. Peyton Manning's presence was, for most of his career, utterly integral to the success of his team. Now, however, Manning finds himself at the tail end of his career with one of the league's best defenses behind him, a solid rushing attack, and most importantly, a serviceable backup.
I'll not bore the reader with a host of season-long statistical averages because these teams haven't recently played with the personnel that will take the field today, particularly not the Steelers. The last time these two teams met, in fact, the Steelers had a full array of weapons and a relatively healthy QB, while the Broncos had their backup quarterback playing and were without both of their starting safeties. The Steelers initially fell far behind, but they made adjustments on both sides of the ball to exploit the absence both T.J. Ward and Darian Stewart in the Broncos defensive secondary. Both safeties will take the field and should be quite healthy after their bye week.
It's not just Ben Roethlisberger's ability to throw with distance and velocity that will be limited this evening. Ben knows very well the pass rushing tandem of DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller that will be in hot pursuit of him throughout this game. The threat of further injury to his throwing shoulder will likely cause Ben to get rid of the ball faster than he would like. The Steelers offense, after all, is ordinarily so incredibly explosive because of Ben's ability to buy time and find speedy receivers deep downfield. Not only will Ben not be able to throw deep comfortably, but he will likely be far more wary of trying to extend plays as doing so would only increase his chances of being buried under a pile of defenders, and that's more than that shoulder could handle.
PREDICTION
I, a devout Ravens fan, can't pretend to possess sterling objectivity when it comes to the Steelers, but loyalties aside, there is nothing that appears favorable about this matchup for Pittsburgh. Their quarterback won't be able to do what it is that he does best, and he'll be without his greatest weapon. Peyton Manning will have had extended rest, and he should be able to do enough to compliment the Broncos running game into order to put points on the board. It has seemed for the past few years as though the Steelers offense has looked like the best in the NFL, but only for certain stretches. The fact that Ben Roethlisberger has only played two complete seasons in his entire career has doomed the Steelers to a single playoff win in the last 5 years. In fact, the shifted personnel emphasis during that time period towards offense has meant a shift AWAY from the traditional tough, physical Steelers defense that has characterized the franchise for decades and led them literally all of their 6 Super Bowl wins. It's not that the Steelers haven't invested draft picks on defensive players; it's just that the Steelers haven't struck gold with their defensive draft picks as they have with their offensive selections. Because the Steelers offensive weapons have been the engine by which the team has succeeded, Ben Roethlisberger has been critical to the team's success as he's responsible for distributing the ball to those weapons. Well, his power to distribute the ball will be weak today, and he'll be without his greatest weapon to boot. Peyton's season has been set up well for a final showdown between the two best quarterbacks of the last 15 years. I can't say I believe in Manning's body's ability to take him all the way at this point, but he's good for at least one more good game after extended rest. BRONCOS 27-17
No comments:
Post a Comment