Well the Chiefs kept right on pace with their 30+ point road scoring average, but their defense utterly suffocated the Texan's with timely turnovers anytime the Texans appeared to gain any offensive momentum. The Bengals appeared to make an honest man out of me in my prediction they would win, and then they reminded the world that they know better than any team in the league how to torment their fans with playoff embarrassment. There's no question that Marvin Lewis should be on the hot seat after his players acted with reckless abandon in key moments that literally cost them the game. I haven't seen a team gift-wrap their opponent a close victory like that since Lee Evans failed to secure what would have been a game-winning catch, and Billy Cundiff began his descent into infamy with a missed 32 yard field goal. We, at the time, considered those errors inexcusable, but inexcusable doesn't even BEGIN to describe what a handful of Bengals players did with a lead, possession of the football and less than 2 minutes left in the game. First a fumble, then a perplexing pair of penalties that turned what could have been a 4th down stop to end the game into 30 yards of penalties that put the Steelers in game-winning field goal range.
I never like to see the Steelers win, but that Bengals team deserved to lose. They were painfully undisciplined in what should have been the final moments of the game. Marvin Lewis needs to be on the hot seat for not getting his players under control and allowing them to jeopardize their team's success with volatile behavior all game. I like a good AFC North slugfest, but the physicality needs to not cost the team the game. Hopefully we won't see another team self-destruct in that fashion between Sunday's AFC matchups. Let's dive right into analysis of the 1:00 game!
SEAHAWKS AT VIKINGS
The Seahawks, despite being inexplicably swept by the lowly Rams, are the NFC's hottest team. The problem is that they're about to enter the coldest environment in professional football at the moment. The weather in Minneapolis wouldn't have been an issue for visiting teams years ago, but the Vikings will host this playoff game at an outdoor stadium instead of their old dome of which the roof collapsed while the organization waits for its new stadium to be built. Despite the it's northern position, Seattle has a temperate climate which is nothing like the hellishly cold weather of Minnesota. The Seahawks announced that Marshawn Lynch WON'T play this week, so fans who thought they might see a showdown between the league's hardest running tailbacks will be sorely disappointed.
If the Seahawks are able to pull off a road victory here, the won't be the first team in recent memory to come into an environment with temperatures FAAAR below freezing and crush the dreams of the opposing team (I believe we all remember the greatest playoff game in Ravens history in Denver). Like that Ravens-Broncos game, this matchup features two teams that faced one another in the regular season, and the home team, Minnesota, was absolutely dominated. In this case, the Seahawks blasted the Vikings 38-7. Has enough changed about this matchup and the conditions in which it will be played that the Vikings might have a better shot? Let's see what the numbers have to say.
THE STATS
I'm baffled by the fact that the Rams have had the Seahawks' number in recent years. The Rams were, of course, absolutely horrendous this season, and they took the Seahawks down even when the Seahawks were in a red-hot 8-2 run in which Seattle seldom failed to score less than 30 points...that is, except against the Rams where they were held to 17. It is for this reason that I don't consider the Week 16 loss to the Rams to be statistically relevant. The Rams, after all, have put up incredible performances against the Seahawks in all three of the last regular seasons, and Seattle went to two Super Bowls during that time. The Rams' success against the 'Hawks, therefore, does not have any bearing on how the rest of the league fares against Russell Wilson and company, nor is it indicative of some sort of late-season downward trend. The Rams, much like the Ravens with the Steelers this season, simply match up well with their divisional rivals.
Even if we count the recent Rams game, the Seahawks scored and average of 28.9 points per game in their current 8-2 run. That number rises to a staggering 32 points per game if we're looking at just the last 8 weeks. The Seahawks will not be playing at home this week, so it's important that we look specifically just at how they fared on the road during that stretch. Like the Chiefs, the Seahawks absolutely dominated teams on the road as they scored an average of 28.4 points. That number rises to 36.33 if we're counting only the road games in the past 8 weeks. This Seahawks team simply doesn't struggle to score big on the road.
The Seahawks defense is nothing to scoff at either. During their current 8-2 run, the Seahawks allowed a staggering average of only 6.8 points per game on the road!! That means the Seahawks' average road differential over the last 10 game stretch is a mammoth 21.6 points. That is easily the best in the league. This game could be quite different than any of those games as the environment will be quite different than even the last time the Seahawks came to Minneapolis 5 weeks ago.
The temperature at game time in the last Seahawks-Vikings matchup was a workable 36 degrees. It is currently -9 degrees at the University of Minnesota football stadium; I get cold just THINKING about that. It should be harder for BOTH teams to pass the football, but I actually believe that goes in favor of the Seahawks.
The Minnesota Vikings, regardless of the weather, are a team the Seahawks were built to beat. The Vikings have a great running back in Adrian Peterson who rushed for more yards than any other player this season, but the Seahawks made him an absolute non-factor the last time both of these two teams met in Minnesota. Seattle possesses the 3rd ranked run defense in the league, and forced Teddy Bridgewater to throw the football. I like Bridgewater in general, but his best receiver this season, Stephon Diggs, only totalled just over 700 receiving yards on the season. The Seahawks will once again dare the Vikings to beat them through the air, and that will be a daunting task against a team that still possesses two of the league's best safeties and one of the best corner of the past 4 seasons.
Now the Vikings themselves allowed an impressive 18.9 points per game this season (5th in the league), but that simply didn't matter against the Seahawks offense as the Vikings only rank 17th in the league at stopping the run. Seahawks running back Thomas Rawls rushed for 101 yards, Russell Wilson rushed for 51 yards on 9 carries for an average of 5.7 yards per carry with a rushing touchdown. The Vikings, in fact, didn't even score on offense. Their only touchdown came off of a kickoff return.
THE PREDICTION
This game should be closer than the 38-7 blowout of 5 weeks ago as I don't believe the Seahawks will be able to throw with as much ease, but the Seahawks have an unquestionable advantage. Even though the Seahawks may not be able to throw quite as well, they still have more and better receiving weapons for which the Vikings must account. Russell Wilson's mobility will mean that Seattle will have multiple rushing threats on each play. Bridgewater is an athletic guy, but he doesn't run like Russell, nor can his team STOP the run like the Seahawks. Playoff football can always shock people, but there's nothing statistically or from game film that would suggest the Vikings can overcome their matchup deficiencies against a team that dominated them earlier this season. PREDICTION: SEAHAWKS 23-13
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