I haven't been particularly impressed with the Cardinals this season despite their excellent record. I found myself rooting for them last week both because much of my family lived in Arizona for decades and because Larry Fitzgerald deserves a shot at a Super Bowl ring. It's tough to say I'll be rooting TOO hard for them against the Carolina Panthers today, however, as Cam Newton has simply been impossible not to like. Newton has entered the realm of the elite quarterbacks this season with his 45 touchdowns (35 passing and 10 rushing) as well as his nearly 4,500 total yards from scrimmage (3,837 passing and 636 rushing). Newton threw 25 more touchdowns than he threw interceptions (10), and he averaged a whopping 4.8 yards per carry on the ground. He's got a cannon for an arm, and he simply wills his team to victory without the aid of a host of elite receivers. On top of all of that, Newton has come under fire all season for what critics have called excessive celebration. I find such allegations absolutely ridiculous. Football is a violent, exhausting sport. Players often emerge from a game feeling as though they had been in a serious car accident, so how can you blame a young guy if he wants to get the fans of his team excited after each win of a historically successful season for his comparatively young team. Football is big, it's brash, it's boisterous, and it's an American obsession. Big personalities are a huge reason this game is never dull from week to week. Cam isn't a dirty player, and he's not a notorious trash talker. There's nothing wrong with showing pride in your team. As a passionate head coach I once worked for told the kids on our team "if YOU can't get fired up when your team scores, YOU DON'T BELONG ON THE FIELD!".
One thing that the Panthers and Cardinals both possess is balance, and that's what should make this game entertaining to watch. Carson Palmer has experienced a resurgence in his career since he joined the Arizona Cardinals, and Bruce Arians has shown exactly what he can do when given the reins. The Cardinals possess the second ranked scoring offense, and their defense ranked 7th in the league in points allowed per game. The Panthers, on the other hand, boast the first ranked scoring offense and the 6th ranked defense in points allowed. Both teams can score, and both teams can play solid defense. The question remains, which team's offense will be able to outscore that of their opponent? Let's take a look.
CARDINALS AT PANTHERS
Before we analyze statistics, we must establish what kind of homefield advantage the Panthers typically enjoy and determine how the Cardinals typically fare on the road. That will narrow down which games from which we'll draw our statistical averages. In order to determine the Panthers' homefield advantage we must compare the average points scored and allowed on the road to the average points scored and allowed at home. If there is a substantially greater points differential at home than on the road, we'll be able to say with reasonable certainty that the Panthers have a significant homefield advantage.
The Panthers scored an average of 29.5 points and allowed an average of 21.5 points on the road this season for an average road differential of exactly 8 points. At home, however, the Panthers scored an average of 33 points and allowed an average of 17 points for an average home differential of a whopping 16 points--that's double the road differential! It's abundantly clear that the Panthers enjoy a sizable homefield advantage.
The Cardinals are no slouches on the road. They scored an average of 32.75 points and allowed an average of 18.75 points on the road for an average points differential of 14. The Cardinals, on paper at least, are nearly as dominant on the road as the Panthers are at home. There is, however, one major factor for which we must account when it comes to the Cardinals: Tyrann Mathieu. Mathieu was easily the Cardinals' best defender before he went down with a season-ending injury. The question that needs to be answered is whether or not his absence led to a statistical decline in Arizona's defensive production.
Mathieu played in 14 games this season which means there is only a small statistical sample size from which to derive statistics, and all three games since then have unfortunately occurred in Arizona. The Cardinals still only allowed 19.33 points per game since Mathieu went down, but defenses typically get a boost at home because of favorable crowd noise timing. It's also important to note that the first of those three games was against a Packers team missing 3 starting offensive lineman. When the Cardinals faced a healthier Packers team last week, the Packers scored 20 points on the vaunted Arizona defense IN Arizona before ultimately falling in overtime. A more accurate average would, therefore, be the 28 point per game the Cardinals allowed at home in their last two games. This, to me, demonstrates a significant statistical drop-off in defensive strength since the loss of Tyrann Mathieu, and it might mean serious trouble against the number one scoring offense in the NFL this evening.
PREDICTION
The Panthers absolutely ripped through the best defense in the NFL last week as they put up 31 points up on the Seahawks in the first half. Carolina then became offensively conservative in the second half with a run-out-the-clock strategy to simply protect the football and outlast Seattle. Had they wanted to play more aggressively, the Panthers likely could have come up with another score or two to put the game totally out of reach of Russell Wilson and company, but it simply didn't matter in the end. The Cardinals simply don't have the defensive power without Tyrann Mathieu to stop the Panthers offense. Cam Newton's mobility makes him difficult to sack. He uses his athleticism to extend passing plays and get first downs and even touchdowns with his legs. Ironically, the Seahawks were probably the only NFC team that had a legitimate shot at stopping the best team in the conference, and they fell short in their furious second-half push. I'll certainly be excited for Larry Fitzgerald if the Cardinals find a way to upset Cam and company, but there is absolutely nothing about what the Cardinals have done since Tyrann Mathieu's injury that would suggest they're capable of winning today. PANTHERS 33-23
STAY TUNED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS FOR EXTENDED DRAFT PROSPECT ANALYSIS AND EARLY THOUGHTS ON THE UPCOMING SUPER BOWL!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS! (GO GET HEALTHY)
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