I've had a good laugh at those on sports talk radio who have given Aaron Rodgers favorable predictions week after week during the second half of this season despite his utter lack of serious targets. They seem to think "but HEY it's Aaron Rodgers!", and they don't give a second thought to the fact that his team lost 6 of its last 10 games. Aaron Rodgers is typically an elite regular season quarterback, but a was seen even with the likes of Tom Brady the second half of this season, a quarterback can only be successful if the guys he's throwing to can catch the football.
The Redskins, on the other hand, have changed from a team that lost 7 of its first 12 games to a team that won all of their final 4 games including 3 on the road. As I write this, I look at some idiotic ESPN article that states that Kirk Cousins hasn't beaten "top competition" this season, and that appears to be true--but the Packers are not what anyone should view is "top competition". Anyone who wants to label the Redskins as "bad" and the Packers as "good" needs to take a good hard look at the statistics for both teams, and that's just what we'll do.
THE STATS
To the credit of the Packers, 5 of their 8 road games resulted in victories for Rodgers and company. To problem with that record is that 3 of those 5 road victories came against divisional foes, and another one of the 5 came against the impossibly bad 49ers. In fact, the Packers had exactly one road win versus a team with a winning record, and that was their first win against the Vikings in Week 11. It's important to note that the Vikings then proceeded to beat the Packers last week IN Green Bay. When the Packers went up against their last playoff-caliber road foe in Arizona two weeks ago, they were beat like a drum to the tune of 38-8.
The Redskins, meanwhile, are have clearly found their offensive groove. Over the course of the last 4 games, Washington has scored an average of 32.75 points per game. Ordinarily I might say we should ignore stats accumulated on the road for a team that's playing at home, but that doesn't make a ton of sense in this case. The Redskins have fared quite well at home all season with a 6-2 record, and they beat the Bills 35-25 in their last game right outside D.C. The statistical trend appears more that the Redskins have finally found a way to score consistently regardless of the setting in which they play. The Redskins DEFENSE, however, appears to benefit quite substantially from being at home.
Washington's defense allowed a mediocre 23.7 points per game (17th in the NFL) this season, but their D allowed a more impressive 18.625 points at home. One can bet that a Skins fanbase that is impressively loyal year in and year out despite near-constant heartbreak will be raucous and will have yell itself collectively hoarse by the end of the game. Despite the comparatively pleasant weather, Landover, Maryland should not be a particularly inviting environment for the visiting Packers.
As homefield advantage doesn't seem particularly pronounced for the Packers this season, we'll simply use their last 10 games as our statistical sample size. The Packers, as I mentioned before, lost 6 of their last 10 games including 4 of their 5 games played against playoff teams during that time. During those 5 games against playoff teams, the Packers scored an average of 18 points per game.
So what was it that made everyone think the Packers were so good this season? Well that's simple: the James Jones factor. James Jones returned to the Packers this season after Jordy Nelson went down with a season-ending injury. Jones initially jumped right back into an elite level of production, and for the first 6 weeks of the season, Jones averaged 1 touchdown per game. The Packers were 6-0 during that period, and appeared to be right back to their typical Super Bowl contender form. After the first 6 weeks of the season, however, Jones averaged 0.2 touchdowns per game, and in the final 10 weeks of the season the Packers lost just as many games as they had won in that first, glorious month and a half. James Jones occasionally put up impressive performances, but those instances became SO occasional, that Jones' average receiving yards per game dropped to 46.6 over the final ten game stretch. Jones' only impressive receiving yardage totals of the final 10 games came against the Vikings against whom he appears to match up quite well. If one ignores the two games against the Vikings, Jones' receiving yards average per game over the last 10 weeks of the season falls to a depressing 31.875 per game. It appears as though father time has simply caught up to James Jones. He wasn't a true #1 receiver in the past, and if Jordy Nelson were still on this team, then it's possible Jones would have been more effective for a longer period of time this season. Nelson is NOT able to play now, and Jones...well Jones isn't really able to play much at all either.
The Packers are almost certainly going to lean on their rushing attack to take pressure off of Aaron Rodgers today. Washington ranked 26th in rushing yards allowed per game this season, and Eddie Lacy is still good for an occasional good game. The Redskins, however, are tied for 10th in the league for rushing touchdowns allowed with only 10 given up on the season. That means the Packers will likely have to find other ways to score once they get into the redzone. The Packers aren't facing a thunderously overwhelming defense such as that of the Chiefs or Seahawks, but it's a good enough defense at home that Rodgers and his weapons will have to execute nearly perfectly if they hope to keep up with a Redskins team that hasn't scored less than 34 points in a month.
THE PREDICTION
This Redskins team may not go beyond this round, but they're just as hot as any other NFC team in the last month, and a struggling Packers team should pose no serious threat. Aaron Rodgers has a Super Bowl ring, but his playoff record of 2-4 since winning that Super Bowl 5 years ago hasn't been phenomenal. The Redskins are currently red-hot, and they've held down the fort at home for nearly the entire season. Washington won't be able to keep the Packers from scoring altogether, but the Packers simply won't be able to keep up with a Washington offense that has been firing on all cylinders for the last month. Kirk Cousins has grown up, and DeSean Jackson's return has helped to open things up for all of the other offensive pieces.
PREDICTION: REDSKINS 33-21
THERE ARE MANY ISSUES WITH THE NFL SUCH AS HORRIBLE REFEREEING, FRUSTRATING RULE CHANGES, AND INCONSISTENT PUNISHMENT FOR PLAYERS, BUT THERE IS STILL NOTHING ELSE I'D RATHER BE WATCHING AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THAN PLAYOFF NFL FOOTBALL....LET'S JUST HOPE THAT THE RAVENS PARTICIPATE IN IT NEXT YEAR.
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS
BUT JUST FOR TODAY AND FOR THE SAKE OF SO MANY OF MY FRIENDS
GO REDKINS!!
No comments:
Post a Comment