Yesterday's games went mostly as I predicted. My 28-23 prediction for the Chiefs-Patriots game was not far off from the 27-20 score that ensued, and although I predicted a lot more offensive production from the Packers and Cardinals, the result was still the same thanks to Larry Fitzgerald. Today's first matchup between the Seahawks and Panthers presents an interesting challenge regarding prediction. These teams met head to head in Charlotte in Week 6, and the Panthers won 27-23. That loss was part of a horrendous first 6 weeks of the season wherein the Seahawks lost 4 of their first 6 games and appeared destined to miss the post season for the first time in several years. Seattle, however, picked up a tremendous amount of momentum after their loss to the Panthers and won 9 of their last 11 games. So what changed from that first, rough 6 weeks to now? Defense.
The Seahawks defense was generally terrible during the first 6 weeks of the season. They shut down the Bears entirely 26-0 in Week 3, and held the Lions to 10 points in their 13-10 win in Week 4, but in their 4 losses during that first 6 week stretch, the once-mighty Seahawks defense allowed an average of 28.75 points. In their last 11 games, that changed dramatically. Sure there was the occasional offensive shootout such as that the one against the Steelers and a mid-season loss to the Cardinals, but the Seahawks have only allowed an average of 14.63 points per game over their last 11 contests. That's roughly a touchdown better than the 20.83 points per game they allowed through the first 6 weeks.
It's not just the Seahawks defense that has improved. Their offense appears to actually have gotten quite a bit better in the second half of the season. Now it's possible that improved defense meant many more opportunities for the offense, but one way or another, the Seahawks offense has produced 29 or more points in 7 of their last 9 games with only a loss to the Rams and last week's 10-9 frigid victory over the Vikings as outliers. What's truly impressive about this offensive production during that period? Well aside of the sheer number of points scored, the Seahawks have done it all Marshawn Lynch over the course of the past 8 games. Hell, they haven't even had Thomas Rawls since he went down against the Ravens 5 games ago. They also haven't had what they thought would be a major weapon, Jimmy Graham, since he went down against the Steelers a couple of months ago. Yes, the Seahawks have found a way to win without their vaunted running back, his backup, and the tight end for whom they traded away an important offensive lineman. They've simply learned to win with what they have. Well guess what! The world learned this morning that Marshawn Lynch WILL play today, and that means the Seahawks will get a rested beast of a running back to help churn out yards against a Panthers defense that has helped lead the team to a 15-1 record during the regular season.
The Panthers allowed a respectable 19 points per game this season, but they're playing at home today, so it's more important that we look at the 17 points per game they allowed this season at home. The major knock against the Panthers has been that their schedule was essentially the softest of any winning team in the league. Let us, therefore, eliminate all home games against losing teams from their home schedule and see how their defense fared. That, unfortunately only leaves the Texans, Packers, and Redskins. Well they dominated the Redskins, but the Redskins were so atrocious on the road for most of the regular season that I'm not convinced that means much. They also just barely edged the Texans by a touchdown early in the season when the Texans were on a horrendous losing streak. Unfortunately, the only serious playoff contender the Panthers faced at home was the Packers, and even they were short a handful of crucial weapons this season. The Panthers defense might have been impressive from a season average standpoint, but how many times did decent and even bad teams take them to the brink?
The Saints, Colts, Texans, Saints (again), Giants, and the Seahawks all lost to the vaunted Panthers by a touchdown or less, and the Texans were the only team to lose by more than 6 points. The Falcons BEAT the Panthers 20-13 only two weeks after losing to Carolina 38-0. In the NFL a win is a win, but there is something perplexingly pedestrian about so many of the Panthers' 15 regular season wins. They've required utter late-game magic from Cam Newton, and it's difficult to know how much he'll be able to provide against a vastly improved Seahawks defense. Cam, in fact, had to lead a late game comeback against the Seahawks, and that was long before they found their rhythm this season.
PREDICTION
The early matchup between the Panthers and Seahawks doesn't tell me much about how these teams will fare. The Panthers have found ways to win games against a lot of bad teams, and they've found ways to beat a small handful of good teams including 4 that found their way into the playoffs. The defensive improvements the Seahawks exhibited since the last time these teams met, however, leads me to believe Cam's magic won't be enough today. With the exception of a couple of games, the Seahawks offense has been absolutely sensational over the course of the last 9 weeks, and it didn't seem to matter who they played so long as it wasn't the Rams. It is possible that the Panthers will be rested and raring to go after their bye week, but the Seahawks simply appear to have too much momentum and will be getting back a rested, ferocious running back. If Cam Newton wins this, he'll show he has taken a HUGE next step in his development as a premier quarterback. Part of me is rooting for him, but part of me simply wasn't impressed with how the Panthers played against mediocre teams this season. The Seahawks know EXACTLY what they're doing in the post-season: they play defense, they run the football, and they have a quarterback who makes insane plays in the clutch. The Panthers might have all of those things, but they have yet to show me they have them against really good teams and in the playoffs. This will be a battle. SEAHAWKS 31-23
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