The AFC Championship Game for the 2011 season was heartbreaking for me not only because the Ravens lost, but also because my dream of Ray Lewis going out on top as a Super Bowl champion appeared to be utterly dashed by the foot of a now-disgraced kicker. Even the following season I lost hope for a triumphant end to Ray Lewis' career when he tore through the triceps in his right arm. Ray Lewis, however, rose once again from the metaphorical ashes armed with a badass looking brace to set an NFL single post-season record with 51 tackles and hoisted his second and final Lombardi trophy in front of a purple confetti covered, artificial field. Ray was admittedly no longer physically the player he had been for the vast majority of his prolific career, but his leadership and will helped inspire and rally a talented roster around him to beat the odds on every step of that magical run. That season was absolutely saturated with Ravens miracles, and the memories of such a perfect last ride for Ray created a lasting feeling of satisfaction even three seasons later.
It appeared as though Peyton Manning' season was likely over when his backup seemed to permanently take over the starting role and even beat the Patriots in the regular season. Peyton had a host of injuries including torn fascia in his foot, but even before major reported injuries sidelined the veteran, Manning simply looked tired and broken. Just as Lewis made his triumphant return for one final ride, however, Manning came back during the second half of the Broncos' last game of the regular season to lead his team to a win that clinched a number one seed for the playoffs.
Last week's Steelers-Broncos game turned out to be a far closer contest than most would have assumed. The Steelers were without numerous integral weapons, and the Broncos were rested, healthy, and at home. The fact that the Denver struggled most of the game to muster and complete scoring drives had a fair amount to do with Peyton Manning's declining and limited physical abilities, but it must be noted that his receivers dropped a disturbing number of passes that would have kept drives moving had they been caught. Just as Ray Lewis' declining physical condition required the rest of his team to step up to help carry him to a final Super Bowl victory, so too will Peyton Manning need the Broncos' defense, rushing attack, and receivers to step up if he hopes to end HIS career at the pinnacle of football glory.
The script of the Broncos' potential Super Bowl run likely couldn't have been scripted better. To get to the Super Bowl, Manning must face his personal friend and professional arch-rival, Tom Brady, in what will almost certainly be an epic final showdown of the two greatest quarterbacks of a generation. Manning had long been the king of the regular season with consistently elite yardage, touchdown totals, and an average of 12 wins, whereas Tom Brady was the king of the rings with 3 Super Bowl victories over a 4 year span and another last year.
The debate as to which was truly the better quarterback continued for years. Some pointed to the fact that Peyton almost never had a serious defense behind him, and that his ability to essentially run an offense by himself made his coaching staff look much better than they may have deserved. Jim Caldwell, for example, was the head coach when Peyton Manning last took the Colts to the Super Bowl against the Saints, and Caldwell has since shown to be quite mediocre in nearly everything he's done without Peyton. Brady, on the other hand, did not become truly statistically elite until AFTER he won his first three Super Bowls. Those Super Bowls were in large part due to a compete team with stout defenses, but Brady still performed quite well in the clutch.
As the Patriots shifted away from defensive personnel emphasis and added elite receiving weapons such as Randy Moss and Wes Welker, Brady began his ascent into truly elite status. Tom, for example, had exactly one season with 4000+ passing yards before the arrival of Welker and Moss, but he totaled over 4,800 passing yards and set an NFL record of 50 touchdowns as soon as his weapons arrived. Moss and Welker were certainly not the last great Patriot weapons at Tom Brady's disposal. Since the departure of both of those players, the likes of Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski, and more regrettably, Aaron Hernandez, have made plays for the future hall of fame quarterback. The fact remains, however, that prior to the arrival of Wes Welker and Randy Moss, Brady averaged 3,593 passing yards and 24.5 touchdowns per season, whereas SINCE the arrival of Moss and Welker and the subsequent elite weapons, Brady has averaged 4548.5 passing yards and 35 touchdowns per season.
Those who argue that Manning was somehow better than Brady will point to the fact that the Patriots went 11-5 during the 2008 season when Brady tore his ACL in the first week. By contrast, when MANNING went out for the season in 2011, the Colts lost nearly ALL of their games after having averaged 12 wins per season for roughly a decade with Peyton leading the offense. The Patriots are unquestionably better with Tom Brady on the field, and his accuracy, timing, and leadership are unquestionably elite, but there is a case to be made that his head coach is responsible for assembling and architecting a system in which MATT FREAKING CASSEL can win 11 football games.
Now those arguing in Brady's favor will be quick to point out that Peyton Manning has a losing playoff record. He is, as a matter of fact, 11-13 in the playoffs and 1-2 in Super Bowls despite his regular season superiority. Manning's ability to perform under pressure in harsh playoff environments has simply not been as good as Brady's, and for good reason...Manning was a long time dome quarterback. Quarterbacks who aren't used to performing in outdoor environments often struggle in the post season as the playoffs are played in the winter. Tom Brady plays in one of the most hellishly cold winter environments in the United States, and he is thusly fully prepared for just about any stadium or temperature. Brady also has better mechanics than Manning, and despite the fact that both have a quick release, Tom throws a stronger, tighter spiral (especially now). Brady's ability to turn and release a football in well under 2 seconds with surgical precision has been a major reason that the likes of Wes Welker and Julian Edelman quickly developed into household names. Welker, for example, was basically useless before and after he played with Brady.
It may not matter now whether or not Brady or Manning was truly a better quarterback over the course of their respective careers. Both will undoubtedly be first ballot hall of famers, and both have together, redefined what it means to be an elite quarterback in today's NFL. What matters now is which quarterback will emerge victorious from Sunday's showdown in Denver. Tom Brady has never won a playoff game in Denver. Peyton Manning outplayed Brady two seasons ago in the AFC Championship in Denver to move on to the Super Bowl. With that said, much has changed about the physical state of Peyton Manning since their last playoff meeting, and Tom Brady has exhibited no visible signs of slowing down despite being only slightly younger than Manning. The interesting thing is that the Broncos already BEAT the Patriots this season...without old Pey-Pey.
I wasn't particularly blown away by the performance of either the Broncos or Patriots last weekend, and to decide which team is more likely to win this game, we'll have to take an in-depth look the health of each team's players. The Patriots defense, for example, has a handful of notable injuries, and we'll have to take a guess as to which will likely make a significant impact on tomorrow's game. I would say the Patriots looked like the crisper team last week, but they also had their issues with drops and also only beat their opponent by a single score. The reason to believe the Patriots are still the better team, however, is that they faced a MUCH better team than the Broncos faced last week. To best predict the outcome of this game, we'll take a look at the last meeting between these two teams, and we'll take a look at what each team did last week. We can look at how each team performed during the regular season, but we'll have to be careful to only analyze stats from games in which each team possessed similar personnel as to what will be available on Sunday. Ok, without further ado, let's get to the analysis and prediction.
PATRIOTS AT BRONCOS
It's difficult to suggest that Tom Brady didn't do well in his last game against the Broncos. Brady had 3 touchdowns and 280 passing yards versus Brock Osweiler's 270 passing yards and one touchdown. The Broncos, however, didn't NEED Osweiler to outproduce Tom Brady. C.J. Anderson rushed for 115 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Patriots run defense, and helped keep the ball out of Brady's hands in critical, late-game moments. It was the disparity between the rushing yardage production of each team that ultimately led to a Broncos win as the Patriots largely abandoned the run. LeGarrette Blount rushed for a mere 27 yards on 9 carries, and the run was largely abandoned. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Patriots abandon the run this time around, but there could be one major complication. The weather report predicts that there could be rain in Denver in the late afternoon and early evening--right when the Patriots and Broncos will play. If that's the case, it would shift a major advantage to the team with a better ability to run the ball. If the rain isn't as heavy or it doesn't last particularly long, the Patriots will have an offensive advantage as they have a full array of receiving weapons at their disposal.
I would say that the Broncos have a defensive advantage, but I wasn't particularly impressed with how they fared against the shorthanded Steelers offense last week. Ben Roethlisberger utilized quick passes to the likes of Martavis Bryant who made great gains after the catch. When the Patriots last faced the Broncos, Edelman did not suit up. Without Julian Edelman, the Patriots lack a consistent, shifty possession receiver to whom Brady can get the ball quickly. Danny Amendola possesses a similar skill set, but he's not quite as good or as consistent. With BOTH on the field, Brady can force defenses to play up on the shifty wide receivers before he unloads passes over the middle or up the seams to Rob Gronkowski. The Patriots don't posses serious deep threats as they did with Randy Moss, but their receivers get open quickly and make great plays after the catch. The Patriots offense, as mentioned earlier, depends heavily on precision timing and crisp route running to take full advantage of Brady's skills. It also depends teams committing heavily in efforts to stop Rob Gronkowski.
Gronk is easily the most difficult tight end to cover in the history of the NFL. He's 6'6", deceptively fast, sure-handed, and impressively physical. His physical dominance, however, has been a double edged sword as defenders know quite well that they have no prayer of tackling him if they aim for his midsection, and, instead, they have often opted to dive headfirst at Gronkowski's knees. Rob Gronkowski's physical and acrobatic brand of football has meant numerous injuries of various types, but he appears quite healthy right now, and we have to assume he will be healthy during tomorrow's game for the sake of this prediction. The fact that teams must commit so much in attempts to stop Gronkowski helps to open up the field for the rest of the receiving corps much the way that Randy Moss' presence used to open up the field for Wes Welker and company. A major reason the Patriots failed late against the Broncos earlier in the regular season was that Rob Gronkowski had to be carted off the field in the 4th quarter. The Patriots already lacked Edelman, but suddenly they found themselves without Gronk too. The Broncos likely won't be so lucky as to have BOTH receivers off the field again tomorrow.
I don't believe the Broncos have a as big of a defensive advantage over the Patriots that many would assume. The Patriots defense, in fact, ranked 10th in the league in points allowed this season with 19.7 per game. Even more interesting, the Patriots defense averaged almost exactly the same on the road with 20.875 points per game allowed away from Foxborough. Defenses tend to travel well, and that should bode well for Bill Belichick's crew. After all, the Broncos offense struggled mightily last week against a mediocre Steelers defense. The Patriots defense, by contrast, held the Chiefs to an uncharacteristic 20 points on the road. The Chiefs averaged 32.5 points per game on the road during the entire second half of the regular season, and they allowed just 12.5 points per game during that same road stretch. The fact that the Patriots were both able to hold the Chiefs to 20 points and score 27 points on them is, therefore, quite impressive. This tells me that both the Patriots offense AND defense are once again playing at a high level--I can't say as much for the Broncos.
The Broncos, as mentioned before, faced a Steelers offense crippled by injuries, and a Steelers defense that, despite a strong 11th ranking in points allowed, possessed serious deficiencies in the secondary. The Steelers defense certainly improved during the second half of the season, especially with a strong pass rush, but it was the Steelers' offensive production that helped keep the ball out of the hands of opposing offenses and take pressure off of the Steelers defense. The Broncos ultimately did prevail, but that was a game that the Broncos should have absolutely dominated if they were in serious dominant playoff form. The Steelers were using a running back they picked up off of the Ravens' practice squad, and were without the wide receiver who accounted for 40% of the Steelers receiving yards during the regular season. The vaunted Broncos defense SHOULDN'T have struggled at home to stop an offense as short-handed as the Steelers were last week, and the Broncos offense SHOULDN'T have struggled against a Steelers pass defense that ranked a horrendous 30th in the NFL. So why DID the Broncos struggle? That's simple; their offense isn't particularly good.
The Broncos offense ranked 16th in the league in yards and 19th in average points per game this season. Their pass offense ranked 14th, and their rush offense ranked 17th. There was, in other words, nothing they did particularly well to move the football. The Broncos have run the football well at times, and they've thrown the football well at times, but they haven't done so consistently. The Broncos defense padded their stats to a great degree against weaker teams and struggled against nearly any team that finished the season with a winning record. At times, the Broncos defense clamped down when their offense struggled, and sometimes the Broncos offense produced when their defense struggled. One way or another, the Broncos found their way to a 12-4 record in the regular season and a number one seed for the playoffs, but that record simply doesn't reflect their current state.
PREDICTION
There are a great many factors that COULD go into a playoff prediction. One could analyze various statistics ad nauseum, but equation to predicting this game is simpler than that. The Patriots have a healthy offense led by the NFL's top quarterback. Despite what I wrote earlier about wanting to take a look at the health of the Patriots roster, it has become clear that the Patriots obstruct any attempts at analyzing the projected health of their team by putting a massive number of players on their injury report with the painfully ambiguous label of "questionable". I've seldom seen players labelled questionable who haven't taken the field; that usually only happens with players labelled "doubtful". Bill Belichick simply refuses to give any information information to opposing teams that isn't required by the rules of the league.
The Patriots defense, despite having some banged up players, performed quite well last week against an impressive road offense. I expect nothing less from that defensive unit as it has statistically shown the ability to travel incredibly well in the second half of the season. The Patriots offense just finished putting up 27 points on a team that allowed in average of 12.5 points per game on the road during an 11 game winning streak--NO one scored on the Chiefs like that but the New England. The Patriots have a healthy, elite offense, and a top 10 ranked defense with a strong road record. The Broncos have a strong defense, but a lackluster offense with a physically limited quarterback and disappointingly inconsistent receivers. The Patriots are simply the more complete team, healthy team. Part of me wants Peyton to get one last ring before he rides off into the sunset, but nothing about his performance last week would suggest he has the ability to go up against the NFC's best team and come out with a win. A rainy day could make this game thrillingly unpredictable, but my brain tells me to go with the battle-tested team with a quarterback able to handle poor weather...and that's not the Broncos. PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 28-20
STAY TUNED TOMORROW FOR THE NFC CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTION
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!! (GO GET A CAP-FRIENDLY CONTRACT EXTENTION DONE WITH FLACCO)
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