This weekend's matchups present tremendous issues for my typical system of analysis. As if it hadn't been rough enough last week with the Steelers stealing away a correct prediction in the waning moments of their game in Cincy, I ended up going an uncharacteristic 2-2 in the first round of the playoffs. NOW, however, we have MAAAAJOR factors for which we must simply place guesses. Yes, I know that predicting sports is not much more than an educated guess, but in this case, the injuries to key players in at least three quarters of this weekend's games leave us wondering who will even play, let alone win.
Take the Chiefs-Patriots game, for example. The Chiefs have looked like the best team in the NFL for 11 straight weeks, but they just lost their most dangerous receiving threat, Jeremy Maclin, last week to a high ankle sprain. In addition to Maclin, the Chiefs' best two defenders, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, have both missed practice time this week and don't appear to be nearly 100%. Then we look at the Patriots. The Patriots lost 4 of their last 6 games in large part because of major absences in personnel. Does the return to health of all of their playmakers, both offensive and defensive, make them back into the team they were prior to week 12? And just how dominant was that team considering what they're going up against with the Chiefs?
The problem these situations is that we're left guessing which statistics to analyze. How can I draw conclusions about how the Patriots will do against one of the most frightfully dominant defenses in the NFL based on their last couple of months of play considering that many of the players they missed during that time will be on the field today? Oh, and what about Brady? Brady has a high ankle sprain upon which he'll play against a team with pass rushers EVERYWHERE. There's no way to know the degree to which Brady's ankle will hinder his mobility.
It is for these reasons that we can only use the information given to us and give it our best shot. I guess I'm simply apologizing in advance for not having my typical confidence in statistical analysis going into this weekend. Without further ado, let's take a look at the picks!
CHIEFS AT PATRIOTS
This kind of matchup happens every post season and usually more than once. Do you go with well-rested perennial powerhouse at home or the red-hot upstart that began the season as one of the league's worst teams? To answer that question, we'll need to look back at the last time the Patriots had similar personnel at their disposal as they will today.
Every team gets bumps and bruises over the course of a season, but those bumps and bruises came to a crescendo for the Patriots against the Broncos in late November. It is for this reason that we'll look at statistics before that game, and we'll only look at stats accumulated for the Patriots at home in Foxborough. During their first 6 healthy home games, the Patriots scored an average of exactly 32 points her game and allowed an average of only 15.16 points per game--that's a differential of a whopping 16.84 points at home.
Now one important fact to consider is that Julian Edelman played in 5 of the 6 games listed in that sample size. Edelman did NOT play in the home game against the Buffalo Bills, and it is, therefore, no surprise that the Patriots struggled mightily to score at their usual pace. In that first home game without Edelman, the Patriots only won 20-13 over a Bills team they beat in Buffalo 40-32. Rob Gronkowski is generally regarded as the greatest offensive weapon at Brady's disposal--and he is, but Julian Edelman adds a particular facet to the offense previously provided by Wes Welker in past years. Edelman offers sure hands and superb rout running on short, chain-moving passes. It is Edelman's presence and ability to get open quickly that allows Brady to release the football almost immediately in order to take away an opposing opportunity for a pass rush. Edelman was sidelined with a broken bone, but he has had many weeks to recover and has practiced for weeks now to get back to game speed. During the 5 home games that Julian Edelman played this season the Patriots scored a whopping 34.4 points per game. Having him on the field in addition to Danny Amendola, Brandon LaFell, and Rob Gronkowski, means the Patriots will be able to both score quickly when necessary and also convert first downs when they need to burn up clock and keep the ball out of the hands of the opposing team.
Last week we went over what incredible road offensive production the Chiefs have had all season, and they didn't disappoint in their 30-0 soul-crushing demolition of the Texans. I get it, it's the Texans...they weren't that good in the first place. The Chiefs, however, went on the road and stepped on the throats of a team that, despite its lack of an elite or franchise quarterback, had a ferocious defense and at least an offensive weapon or two such as DeAndre Hopkins. The thing is, the Patriots crushed the Texans by nearly the same margin during their injury-riddled stretch, and that should tell us something about how well the Patriots play at home. With that said, the Chiefs should absolutely be able to put up points on the Patriots, the question will be whether they'll be able OUTscore Brady and company. The problem for the Chiefs is that their leading receiving weapon, Jeremy Maclin, will be attempting to play on a high ankle sprain. To examine the potential effects of Maclin's injury, let's take a look at his production on the season.
Maclin led the Chiefs with 1088 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns during the regular season. Maclin had impressive production on the road this season . He had 141 receiving yards in Green Bay, 148 in Cincinnati, and 95 yards in Oakland. During the last 6 games of the season, Maclin averaged one touchdown per game, and his touchdowns were the difference between winning and losing in 4 of those 6 games. Jeremy Maclin, however, caught for only 29 yards on three receptions last week before coming out with an injury against the Texans. The Chiefs still managed to score one rushing touchdown, one passing touchdown to Chris Conley, and one special teams touchdown off of a kickoff return. The Chiefs also scored 9 points off of field goals to bring the grand total to 30. Now if one takes away the special teams TD, the Chiefs only put up 23 offensive points; that's not likely going to beat the Patriots. It's also safe to say that the Chiefs will not likely benefit from 5 turnovers against the Patriots the way they did against the Texans because Tom Brady and his receivers simply don't turn the ball over like a backup quarterback does...sorry Hoyer.
Some of the biggest factors of this matchup can't be measured by statistics. The most important is that the patriots have had a bye week to both rest and study their opponent. The Chiefs have spent a good chunk of the last week traveling, and they'll be playing in one of the most hostile road venues in the NFL. The Patriots listed a dozen of their players as questionable, but that's a routine tactic they employ so as not to divulge the true extent of the health of their roster to an opponent. Tom Brady has had extended rest to allow his ankle to heal, but he's also not a quarterback who relies heavily on his speed and athleticism to make plays. Brady will have Amendola, Edelman, LaFell, and Gronkowski, and that means he'll be able to get the ball out quickly and stay upright. The Patriots had significant defensive injuries as well, but as far as one can tell, those players will all be returning to the field this afternoon as well.
PREDICTION
I want so very badly to give reasons why the Chiefs can win this game. They have an incredible defense, and they find ways to score without elite offensive weapons, but I believe they're entering a game wherein they simply can't outscore a healthy, dangerous opponent. The Patriots offense won't struggle to move the ball with the return of Julian Edelman. This is not an offense that depends heavily on big chunk plays on downfield passes. Tom Brady doesn't have to sit in the pocket waiting for receivers to be open. Kansas City depends too heavily on the mistakes of opposing teams rather than simply imposing their will. A healthy Patriots team simply doesn't make mistakes at home with the frequency of other teams, nor does their defense allow for much production from the opposition. This is a matchup of an elite offense with an impressive, currently healthy home defense going up against a team with a sensational, opportunistic defense that relies on the pass rush. This should be close, and I pray I'm wrong, but I can't see a Chiefs team that only beat the Browns, Raiders, and Chargers by a touchdown or less in the last 6 weeks of the season somehow going into Foxborough and outscoring a rested Patriots team. God...I've never wanted to be wrong on a playoff prediction this badly.
PATRIOTS 28-23
STAY TUNED FOR THE PACKERS-CARDINALS PREDICTION!!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!
Go Pats!
ReplyDelete-Jon Brown
Go Pats!
ReplyDelete-Jon Brown