No matter how the rules have changed, and no matter how many times people insist that this is a "quarterback driven league", teams with ferocious defenses and strong rushing attacks continue to find success in the post season. Teams such as the Seahawks, the Broncos, and now Vikings and Eagles demonstrate that while elite quarterbacks have won a good number of Super Bowls, an elite quarterback is nowhere near required to get there and win. The issue is that contracts for top free agent quarterbacks have gotten so out of control that teams struggle to surround those quarterbacks with enough talent to get to or through a post-season. Instead, teams with talented young quarterbacks still on a rookie contract or a solid journeyman quarterback find themselves able to accrue enough talent at other positions to enjoy a 3-4 year window within which to make a serious run at a Lombardi trophy.
Here in Baltimore we are quite familiar with the competitive opportunity of that rookie contract window, and unfortunately, just as familiar with the crippling lasting effects of a major quarterback contract. While I have no intention of turning this into a Joe Flacco bashing session, I marvel at just how frequently the "you need to have a franchise quarterback" idea proves untrue. That isn't to say a team shouldn't have a talented, effective gunslinger, but NFL franchises need to start considering the idea that they shouldn't overpay just because the market dictates it at that particular moment. Teams must, instead, offer quarterback contracts based on fair and accurate evaluations of talent and track record--and if a quarterback chooses to go to another team that can afford to overpay them, they shouldn't fear moving forward with someone else. One might point to Tom Brady to offer proof to the contrary, but he is actually the perfect example of exactly the trend I'm describing. Brady won three Super Bowls in his youth window, and then after being paid as an elite quarterback, his team went a full decade before winning again. When they DID win again, it was because Brady signed a cap-friendly deal that allowed his team to sign key, defensive free agents such as Darrelle Revis. Brady, for example, has a salary cap hit that is nearly 11 million dollars lower than Joe Flacco's this season, but I digress. Suffice it to say that people simply shouldn't be surprised that three out of the four teams playing today will be starting quarterbacks that come nowhere near entering the "elite" debate.
The Eagles and Vikings are two seemingly evenly matched teams. Both feature elite defenses; the Eagles finish the season ranked 4th in both yards and points allowed, and the Vikings finished the season proudly ranked 1st in both categories. Philadelphia's offense finished the season ranked 7th while the Vikings finished the season ranked 11th, but it should be noted that Philly's ranking would likely be at least a few notches lower on the list had Carson Wentz not been the starter for most of the regular season. The Vikings ranked 7th in the league this season in rushing, and the Eagles ranked 3rd. Minnesota, on the other hand, ranked 11th in the league in passing yards per game, while the Eagles ranked 13th. The Eagles are nearly undefeated at home this season, and the Vikings went 6-2 on the road. The Vikings' only road losses came against the Steelers right after losing their starting quarterback, and then against the Panthers in a close-fought late season battle. As evenly matched as these teams appear to be, before we formulate an opinion on which will win today, we must examine exactly how good the Eagles have been on the road and how good the Vikings have been on the road.
The Vikings defense is unquestionably dominant, but it was significantly less dominant on the road. Minnesota allowed opponents to score a mere 12.5 points per game at home this season, but that number rose to 19 points per game on the road. Even more telling were the road games wherein the Vikings gave up a startling number of points such as their 26 points given up to the Steelers, 30 points given up to the Redskins, and 31 points given up to the Panthers. The Vikings defense also allowed the Saints to mount a furious late comeback that almost spoiled Minnesota's playoff run. Were it not for an epic defensive collapse by the Saints in the waning seconds of the game, we might be discussing the possibility of an epic showdown between Drew Brees and Tom Brady. The Vikings offense prevailed in miraculous fashion, but it has become clear that this Vikings defense, despite its top ranking, is not impervious and certainly not on par with the historically great defenses of the Super Bowl era.
The Eagles defense allowed 18.4 points per game on the season, but that number dropped to an extremely stingy 13.375 in home games. More telling than the regular season statistics, however, was just how well the Eagles limited a star-studded Falcons offense last weekend. Not only did the Eagles hold the Falcons to 10 points, they stopped Matt Ryan and company from getting into the endzone from the 2 yard line at the end of the game. The Eagles, in fact, haven't allowed a touchdown in the final two minutes of any game this season. The Eagles defense held Matt Ryan to 210 ten yards and a single touchdown. If they can match up well with the likes of Julio Jones and Mohammed Sanu, they should have little trouble with Adam Thielen and Stephon Diggs.
Speaking of Adam Thielen, it was reported this week that Thielen will suit up today, but he has multiple fractures in his back and was limited in practice all week. This may very well prove a deciding factor in this game. The Eagles will also have the services of Sidney Jones, the highly touted but previously injured draft pick who has suddenly returned to health and practice. I don't wish to diminish the surprisingly impressive year that Case Keenum has enjoyed, but it's difficult to imagine he has the talent and offensive weapons to put up points on a defense that just held the Falcons to 10 points--but how has the Vikings offense performed on the road this season anyway?
The Vikings offense averaged 23 points per game on the road this season, which is only 4 points more than they allowed on average. A 23 point performance, though, may just be enough to win this game. The Eagles offense has performed well enough to win games following the loss of Carson Wentz, but the production has fallen off a cliff--especially against quality teams. The season-ending loss to the Cowboys shouldn't be counted statistically as the Eagles sat their starters, but against the Raiders the week earlier and then last week against Falcons, the Eagles offense looked startlingly weak compared to before Wentz went down.
Facts and statistics usually tend to point me towards one team or another by this point in my analysis, but this is simply one of the toughest matchups to predict I've encountered over the life of Purple Nightmare. The Eagles offense isn't great, but it appears as though the Vikings are banged up enough at this point that they'll struggle to consistently move the ball against an Eagles defense that has been sensational at home. Adam Thielen's back injury won't keep him out of the game, but it's difficult to think he'll be anywhere near 100% with broken bones in his back. The Eagles defensive line looked utterly ferocious both stopping the run and rushing the passer last week, and Case Keenum isn't nearly as athletic as Matt Ryan. The Eagles showed that they could score in clutch moments against a formidable Falcons defense that traveled extremely well all year, and they should find key moments where they'll be able to mount drives against a Vikings defense that struggled at home last week to stop the Saints once Xavier Rhodes got hurt and was forced to leave the game. This should be an absolute defensive sluggfest, but the Vikings defense simply hasn't traveled well enough this season to give me confidence they'll come out on top today.
PREDICTION: EAGLES 19-16
LET'S HOPE FOR SOME GREAT FOOTBALL TODAY AND STAY TUNED NEXT WEEK FOR A PRE-COMBINE DRAFT WISHLIST INSTALLMENT!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!
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