The Jacksonville Jaguars defense, as predicted, did not shut down the Steelers offense. It allowed a whopping 42 points, and looked tired for much of the second half. That defense did, nevertheless, do enough in the first half of the game to slow the Steelers down juuust enough to give their offense an edge in the waning minutes of the game. The Jaguars offense, however, was the true difference maker, as it completed drive after drive at pivotal moments.
Scoring 45 points against a quality team on the road and in the playoffs is no easy feat. The question is whether that points total had more to do with the Steelers' run-stopping deficiencies following the loss of Ryan Shazier, or whether it was the result of the Jaguars elevating their level of play. Given the fact that the Bills held the Jags to 10 points a week earlier, I have to conclude that Jacksonville's offensive production was due largely to the Steelers' lack of talent and depth at the middle linebacker position.
So who then are the Jaguars? Are they the team that put up 45 points in Pittsburgh, or are they the team that put up 10 points in Buffalo a week earlier? The Jaguars' record in the three weeks leading up to the Steelers game would suggest the latter. When going up quality teams, the Jags stumbled. They allowed a 5-win 49ers team to put a whopping 44 points and what had previously been regarded as the NFL's top defensive unit. They lost to a Titans team that was just absolutely blasted by the Patriots last week, and then, as previously mentioned, they barely squeaked by the Buffalo Bills. The Jaguars are not predictably dominant. They're capable of putting up a dominant performance when they force a ton of turnovers, but they don't typically stonewall a decent offense. They, like the Ravens, put up dominant defensive performances against bad teams, and occasionally force a good team into turning over the ball enough times to tip the scales in their favor.
The Patriots experienced a pair of hiccups early in the season with their Week 1 42-27 loss to the Chiefs and their 33-30 loss to the Panthers in Week 4. Since then, however, they have almost never faltered--even against playoff contenders. After starting the season 2-2, the Brady and company won 11 of their next 12 games to finish 13-3 with the top seed in the AFC going into the playoffs. The Pats also put up 5 strong wins over playoff teams, which is more than all the other teams that reached the post season with the exception of the Vikings.
As one looks at the Patriots' defensive statistics, one thing stands out as odd: the Patriots ranked 30th in passing yards allowed, 20th in rushing yards allowed, but they ranked 4th in the league in points allowed per game. I expected to see that the Patriots had consistently forced many turnovers this season, but they had just over half as many as the Ravens. It turns out that a large part of what made the Patriots defense effective despite allowing a sizable total of yards on the season was their redzone defense. The Patriots redzone defense ranked 5th in the league--just behind Jacksonville. The Patriots allowed touchdowns scored in just 44% of opponents' trips to the redzone at home this season. Pittsburgh, by contrast, allowed touchdowns scored during trips in the redzone a whopping 91% of the time in home games this season. It should, therefore, come as no surprise that the Steelers struggled so hard to keep the Jaguars from scoring in critical situations. Over the last 3 games, however, the Jaguars ranked a dismal 23rd in the league in redzone defense, and it shouldn't come as any surprise that they also allowed the Steelers to score basically at will in the second half of the game.
The Patriots defense has clearly received a major boost from the acquisition of a rested James Harrison. Harrison is not elite at his position anymore, but he is a clear upgrade over what the Patriots had, and the fact that he's played an incredibly limited number snaps in 2017 means his body isn't as beaten down as starters who have played 14-16 games this season. There's no question that New England's offensive consistency helps to give its defense a major break. The Patriots lead the league in first downs per game, and that helps them win the time of possession battle and keep their own defense off the field. One typically doesn't think of the Patriots as a strong rushing team, but they ranked 10th in the league this year with nearly 1900 rushing yards, and they did so without a premier running back. Instead, the Patriots spread the ball out to Dion Lewis, Mike Gilislee, Rex Burkhead, and a smattering of other players. Dion Lewis had the strongest performance with 896 rushing yards on the season, but he's not feared the way Le'veon Bell or Ezekiel Elliott are feared.
The Patriots running backs benefit tremendously from the success of their passing attack. Teams are forced to place tremendous defensive emphasis on stopping Brady through the air, and it often leaves the run wide open. Tom Brady ranked first in the league in passing yards during the regular season, and despite his age, ranked 5th in completion percentage. What is even more astounding is that Tom Brady found a way to lead the league in passing yards with only a single wide receiver ranked in the 40 in the league, Brandin Cooks. Cooks finished 2017 with 1082 receiver yards, and Rob Gronkowski finished the season with 1084 receiving yards to easily remain the league's most dominant tight end, but those two weapons account for less than half of Brady's yardage. The secret has been Brady's ability to spread the ball out to a host of his weapons including Danny Amendola, Chris Hogan, James White, Rex Burkhead, Dion Lewis, and Philip Dorsett. All of these weapons play their roles effectively, and while keying in on Gronk will always have to be a priority, this team showed last year that it can win a Super Bowl without him.
One could continue to go on and on about how masterful the Patriots offense has been this season, but one major factor could bring all of that to a grinding halt. A few days ago Tom Brady reportedly injured his throwing hand. It sounded as though he jammed some of his fingers during practice, and he wore protective gloves when he returned to work. Brady doesn't have tremendous hands, so grip could be a major issue if he isn't able to squeeze his jammed fingers with much strength. This is totally unknown factor as we haven't seen Brady play with such an injury, and the Patriots were mum about the nature and severity of it during press conferences. If Tom's hand hasn't fully recovered by game time, this could end up becoming a game wherein the Jaguars turn in another incredibly opportunistic performance and capitalize off of throwing errors made by an injured #12. Because this injury is an unknown commodity, however, and jammed fingers can often only take a matter of days to return to normal, I have to assume that Brady will be good to go today.
As great as the Patriots offense has been, the Jaguars offense has been nothing to scoff at this season. They finished 6th in the league in points scored per game, and they even scored a whopping 28.1 points in road games this season. Puzzlingly enough, a high scoring average in road games only produced a 4-4 road record on the season. Much of that had to do with just how dominant the Jaguars were on the road early in the season with huge wins over the Texans (29-7) and the Steelers (30-9) coupled with how poorly they performed on the road down the stretch of the regular season with road losses to the Cardinals (27-24), the 49ers (44-33) and Titans (15-10).
I don't pretend to be unbiased. I love the Ravens, I hate the Steelers, and I've loathed Tom Brady for most of his career. I have taken the Patriots to task on social media in the past regarding their various cheating scandals, and I've been mystified by perceived gifts given to them by referees over the years such as the tuck rule or roughing the passer calls for brushing up against Tommy's leg. More recently, however, I've come to respect the level of preparedness and attention to detail exhibited by Bill Belichick. When I read that Belichick had his players squatting 85% of their one rep maxes the week of last year's Super Bowl, I realized that he has a similar philosophy to mine on not changing training routine going into a game. In other words, if it worked all season, why suddenly change it just because its the Super Bowl?
Bill doesn't have nearly the most talented roster in the league--far from it. He has an elite quarterback and an elite tight end, but no one else's stats jump off the page. Instead, he uses scheme and discipline to elevate the level of play of solid players. His control over his own program has been the reason that he wins without Gronk and without Brady. No one is going to deny Brady's greatness, but Bill took the Patriots to an 11-5 season with Matt Cassel in 2008...and Cassel is a bum. When Brady missed the first 4 games of last season, Bill went 3-0 with Jimmy Garoppolo and only lost once he had to start his 3rd string arm. The Patriots are dramatically better coached than a vastly more talented Steelers team, and only one team in the league has ever beaten them in an AFC Championship game set in New England (CAW! heh heh). The Jaguars run has been impressive this season, and they'll certainly be major contenders for at least another couple of years with the core of their current roster, but their defense is about to go up against an offense run with surgical precision in one of the harshest playoff road environments imaginable. The Belichick-Brady duo might not last many more years, but they've proven they can still dominate their conference.
PREDICTION: PATRIOTS 31-23
The Jaguars offense depends largely on Blake Bortles' ability to scramble for first downs, and the Patriots will be far more disciplined than the Steelers were last week. Belichick will place a spy on Bortles, and he'll be contained rather than over-pursued as the Steelers outside backers did so often last week. The Patriots defense will stop the run more effectively than the Steelers defense did, and force Bortles to try to beat them through the air. The Jaguars' top 2 corners are great, but two elite defenders are not nearly enough to stop the Patriots offense the way the Patriots spread the ball around. The Steelers did one major favor for the Patriots: they showed showed just about every weakness the Jaguars defense has, and they demonstrated just how quickly the Jags can give up points. This should be an entertaining game, but we'll likely see an incredibly familiar team in the Super Bowl representing the AFC once again.
ENJOY CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
No comments:
Post a Comment