It would have been a good idea for me to recognize the trend we observed of turnovers sinking the Rams' ship in home games. I simply didn't think the Falcons defense would be strong enough on the road to stop one of the NFL's top offenses. Lo and behold, the formula to beat the Rams on their home field proved effective: force L.A. to commit early turnovers and to play from behind in order to take the ball out of Todd Gurley's hands and put it into the hands of Jared Geoff. The Falcons have finally figured out how to play quality playoff football, and they obviously shouldn't be counted out going forward.
As for the Chiefs, the reasoning behind picking them was sound, but they simply could not continue to move the football and keep the Titans offense off the field once Travis Kelce was knocked out of the game. To make matters worse, they doinked a field goal off the uprights that would have likely won them the game had they made it. When all is said and done, it's the upsets and thrilling comeback wins that make playoff football exciting, so rather than wallow in the misery of a 0-2 predictions start, I'm just going to be happy we had two exciting, competitive games to kick off the post-season!
I must admit that I don't have a tremendous amount of faith in the Buffalo Bills going into this game. They squeaked into the playoffs based on a rather strange tie-breaker over the Ravens, and they simply haven't looked strong enough against quality teams to give any indication that they could go into Jacksonville and upset the Jaguars...right? Well let's take a look.
The Bills went 3-5 on the road this year. Two of their road wins came against teams that made the playoffs this year, the Falcons and Chiefs, but I'm not entirely sure I give them a ton of credit for beating the Chiefs during the Chiefs' major midseason slump. The Dolphins essentially gave up late in the season, and the Bills were lucky to face Miami two out of their last three games. I will give Buffalo credit that they looked formidable early on winning 5 of their first 7 games, but they were then blown out by the Jets, Saints, and Chargers in a row along with two subsequent thrashings from the Patriots to put their post-season hopes in jeopardy. The Jaguars could be a defensive matchup nightmare for the Bills, but Jacksonville's offensive inconsistencies will mean this game is anything but a lock.
The Jaguars looked absolutely unstoppable through Week 15 of the regular season. Over the course of the season, they slaughtered the Ravens, beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh, outscored the Texans 74-14 on the season, and edged what turned out to be a rather impressive Chargers team down the stretch. There were, however, the puzzling letdown games including two losses to the Titans, a loss to the Jets, a loss to the Cardinals, and more recently, a loss to the 49ers. How could a team that crushed a healthy Steelers team in Pittsburgh turn around and lose to the Jets? There are two major issues to be examined that might help us understand.
The first major issue is the Jaguars offense. Blake Bortles certainly looked better this season than in the past, but he was still capable of putting up an absolutely miserable performance against a less-than-elite team to totally ruin his team's chances at a win that day. To finish the season, for example, Bortles completed 44.1% of his passes for 158 yards and two interceptions in a 37-16 loss to the Titans. The Titans are a divisional foe, but they were coming off of a three game losing streak and the odds were stacked heavily against them according to Las Vegas oddsmakers. A week earlier against the 49ers, Bortles threw three interceptions, and his team went down early. That caused them Jacksonville get away from the run to an extent and throw the ball to catch up. Bortles and his offense did their best to come back, but Jimmy Garoppolo and his new team scored at such a furious pace that even finishing with 33 points wouldn't do it for the Jags--because the 49ers scored 44.
How, even with Jimmy Garoppolo, did the 49ers score 44 points on the Jaguars defense? Well that brings us to the second major issue with Jacksonville. The Jaguars defense, not unlike that of the Ravens, is extremely strong on days where they're able to force turnovers. If they're simply asked to stonewall a team to stop them without takeaways, however, the Jaguars don't typically deliver. That isn't to say the Jags don't have some excellent defensive pieces. Their defensive line is impressive and their cornerback tandem is arguably, if not undeniably, the best in the NFL. The problem arises when the defense has to pick of the slack for Blake Bortles' mistakes and ineptitude. When Flacco has an awful day, the Ravens defense fights mightily to keep their team in the game, but they'll ultimately get worn down staying on the field for so long. The same can be said for the Jaguars.
Blake Bortles likely will likely get a major weapon back today with the return of Marquise Lee. Lee had missed time with a sprained ankle, and his return today could do much to spark some offensive production for the Jaguars and tilt the scales in their favor. Another thing that bodes well for the Jaguars is that the Bills finished the 2017 regular season with the 26th defense in the NFL--Jacksonville's defense finished 2nd. The Bills faced two teams that finished the season in the top ten in the NFL in points allowed, and they were the Saints, and Chargers. It should come as no surprise that the Bills lost to the Saints 47-10 and the Chargers 54-24. Both the Saints and Chargers also possess more potent offensive attacks than the Jaguars, but homefield advantage and the return of Marquise Lee should be enough to consistently move the ball against a Bills team that rarely wins on the road and isn't exactly an offensive powerhouse.
Tyrod Taylor threw for a lousy 2799 passing yards on the season. If the Bills had any type of quality backup, Taylor wouldn't be starting this weekend. Tyrod threw for a mere 14 touchdowns on the season, and if the Bills were hoping to lean on the running game today, LeSean McCoy is reportedly only roughly 80% recovered from a serious ankle injury. I'm sure McCoy will play, but he's likely not going to be nearly explosive enough to carry the team.
The first two games of the playoffs certainly proved my previous predictions wrong, but I can't find any major reason to suggest that the Bills are likely to pull off an upset on the road today. The Jaguars did lose their last two games coming into this week, but they were against MUCH better teams than the Buffalo Bills.
PREDICTION: JAGUARS 31-20
WHATEVER HAPPENS, LET'S HOPE FOR EXCITING, ENTERTAINING PLAYOFF FOOTBALL! STAY TUNED FOR THE PANTHERS-SAINTS ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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