PURPLE NIGHTMARE'S PREDICTIONS RECAP
I'm proud to say that my predictions went about as well as I could have hoped for when you consider that I made them under the assumption that the replacement refs would still be officiating over the weekend. Football players, coaches, and fans everywhere breathed a sigh of relief when the NFL announced they had reached a deal with the new refs late last Wednesday night. Nevertheless, the Purple Nightmare record for the first week of predictions ended up being 12-3. I was incorrect about the Giants beating the Eagles thanks to a missed field goal late in that game, I overestimated the Chiefs and underestimated the Chargers, and I assumed that the Vikings were only a flash in the pan and couldn't topple Stafford, Megatron, and company...I was wrong. All of my other win-loss predictions were correct.
WEEK 5 TOP 10 POWER RANKINGS
This is the first time I have ever posted power rankings, but unlike most, I waste your time or my own by ranking mediocre and currently irrelevant teams. Now lets see where we stand after one month of football.
1. HOUSTON TEXANS- It's tough to argue against the Texans at this point. They're 4-0 and appear to be the most complete team in the league. The Texans have it all with an elite runningback, a talented quarterback, once of the best wide receivers in the league, and possibly the league's best defense. I could go into their rankings as far as yardage is concerned, but what is most impressive is that the Texans defense has allowed only 56 points through 4 games. No other team has allowed less than 61 points, and no other team in the AFC has allowed less than 71 points. Beyond that, the Texans offense has produced 126 points which ranks second in the NFL behind the Patriots. The one caveat is that the Texans have yet to face a winning team. The 4 teams that the Texans have faced have a combined 5 wins through 4 weeks.
2. ATLANTA FALCONS- Just when I thought the Falcons were clearly the NFL's most dominant team, they go and barely beat a Panthers team whose single win came against an 0-4 Saints team. The Falcons, however, are still battle tested after they absolutely thumped the 3-1 Chargers... IN SAN DIEGO! That erases my thoughts that the Falcons are only truly dominant at home. This year, their offense is quite a sight to behold with improved play from Matt Ryan and help from Roddy White, Julio Jones, and the ageless Tony Gonzalez. What's holding this team back from being ranked #1 is the fact that they have given up 20+ points in 3 out of 4 of their games thus far, and two of their home wins were by 6 points or less to teams without winning records.
3. ARIZONA CARDINALS- The 49ers are probably going to prove a better team than the Cardinals now that the real refs have returned, but 4-0 speaks for itself. The Cardinals defense has been a total surprise, and they've gotten better play out of Kevin Kolb than I originally anticipated. Still, with the new refs back, you'll see an upsurge in the power of teams with high powered passing offenses, and I feel that the Cardinals will soon fall off from their unbeaten status. They only barely beat a 1-3 Dolphins team in overtime in week 4 with the new refs back to work.
4. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS- Yes, the 49ers had a letdown game against the Vikings, but the Vikings are also starting to look like a greatly improved team. It was tough for me to rank the 49ers higher than the Ravens, but the 49ers simply have a much better defense at this point and that allows them to do things like flatten the Jets 34-0. The 49ers are going to have to improve their passing numbers and utilize their strong receiving weapons more, however, if they hope to maintain their #4 spot for much longer.
5. BALTIMORE RAVENS- After a dramatic comeback win at home against the Patriots, I truly believed the Ravens could beat anyone. Joe Flacco simply appeared do drive down the field when the pressure was on they way that truly elite quarterbacks do in big games against tough competition. Joe Flacco, however, is not the entire Ravens team. The Ravens defense has long been their strong point, but it is, for the first time in a VERY long time, allowing a startling amount of yardage and failing to stop the run in a lot of critical situations. With all of that said, the Ravens are a blown call away from being 4-0, and their defense is still tied for 3rd in the AFC in least points allowed. The Raven have the 3rd most points in the AFC and the 4th ranked passing offense in the league with 310 passing yards per game. Ray Rice is also currently second in the league in all purpose yardage. If the Ravens want to crack the top 3, they'll need to show they can win big on the road and stop Jamaal Charles on Sunday.
6. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS- I'm not usually high on the Chargers early in the season as there is often a temptation to rank them too highly based on the individual talent they possess. The Chargers have, however, looked impressive with a 3-1 record and a thorough thumping of the Chiefs in Arrowhead stadium last week. The Chargers have the 6th ranked run defense in the league and that is not simply because teams have been able to pass all over them instead. Philip Rivers has only commanded the 23rd ranked pass offense so far, but I predict those numbers will improve as they play the rest of their games with real referees.
7. MINNESOTA VIKINGS- This ranking may surprise some of you, but it shouldn't. The Vikings are 3-1 and have put together two impressive victories in a row against the 49ers and against the Lions in Detroit. The Vikings defense has allowed only 72 points Christian Ponder no longer looks pathetic. Percy Harvin is on pace to have 120 catches this season and Adrian Peterson somehow required far less than a year to come back from an injury that usually sidelines players for 12-14 months if not more.
8. CHICAGO BEARS- Well I can't say it wasn't satisfying to watch the Bears obliterate Tony Romo last night. I'm happy to say I predicted it. This team has a absolutely harrowing run defense that has only allowed 67.3 yards per game on the ground thus far. Their pass defense has allowed more yards, but they have forced 14 turnovers in 4 games and 11 of them have been interceptions. Jay Cutler showed that he can make big plays to his receivers even under extreme pressure from pass rushers such as DeMarcus Ware. The Cutler will have to show some consistency, however, if his team is to ascend further up on this list.
9. CINCINNATI BENGALS- Since losing to the Ravens in week 1 the Bengals have looked rather strong. Andy Dalton leads an 8th ranked passing offense with 279.3 yards per game. A.J. Green already has 27 catches and 3 touchdowns, while Andrew Hawkins has averaged 16.5 yards per catch with two touchdowns. I have been quite impressed with the Bengals ability to win on the road for the last two consecutive weeks, and Andy Dalton possesses the ability to drive downfield seemingly at will when the game is on the line. The defense will have to improve if the Bengals hope to make a strong run in the playoffs as they have allowed as many points as the offense has scored thus far.
10. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- I believe the Patriots are about to climb WAY up in the rankings in the next few weeks. Few teams will benefit more from the return of the real referees as the Patriots. The Patriots looked a lot more like last year's team during the first week with the NFL referees back in action. They have, however, added a new dimension to their game with a strong rushing one-two punch from Stephen Ridley and Brandon Bolden. The Patriots suddenly find themselves ranked in the top 10 in passing AND rushing as well as 8th in run defense allowing only 85 yards per game on the ground. The Pats pass defense will have to improve quickly as they're set to face a familiar foe on sunday....PEYTON MANNING!
ONLY 3-1 TEAM THAT DIDN'T MAKE THE CUT:
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES- Last year's "dream team" is 3-1 despite looking rather shakey at times. After close and controversial wins over the Browns and Ravens, the Eagles were flattened by the Cardinals. The Eagles are a missed kick and a botched offensive pass interference call away from being 1-3 at this point, and they only barely squeaked by an 0-4 browns team when Brandon Weeden threw 4 interceptions. Injuries to the offensive line and an extreme number of turnovers will keep this season quite uncertain for Philly fans.
BACK TO THE RAVENS
One must always be happy with a win in the NFL regardless of opponent or score. No team is so bad that it couldn't give problems to a team with a much better record, and no team is so good that it isn't vulnerable to a letdown or close game against a bad or mediocre team. With that said, the Ravens can't be happy with a narrow home win against a Browns team that has yet to win a game. It wasn't the score or even the sheer number of passing yards that Brandon Weeden put up on the Ravens supposedly star-studded secondary. It was the fact that the game came down to one final pass into the endzone...make that two final passes into the endzone because the Ravens defensive line wasn't disciplined enough to avoid a personal foul penalty that gave the Browns one last shot.
The Ravens will have had over a week to correct their mistakes by the time they're in Kansas City. Dean Pees needs to figure out how to get more out of a run defense that finished second in the NFL in yards allowed last season. Cam Cameron will also have to show that his fast-paced offense will work in noisy road venues and not just under favorable conditions at home. The Ravens have a break in that they face a Chiefs team that has allowed more points than the Ravens have scored and scored only slightly more points than the Ravens have allowed. The keys to the game will be stopping Jamal Charles and Shaun Draughn as well as getting pressuring Matt Cassel into making poor throws. The Ravens offense will need to get an early lead and keep the pedal to the metal so that the Chiefs will be forced to pass the ball most of the second half. Cam Cameron should utilize Ray Rice and Vonta Leach frequently to open things up for the pass and keep the clock moving once they've established a commanding lead--that is IF they establish a commanding lead. Stay tuned for week 5 predictions! As always GO RAVENS!!!
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