I understand why it is that the Pittsburgh Steelers have historically been given high praise from members of sports media and football fans across the nation. The team has won a league-leading 6 Super Bowl titles including 2 in the last decade. They currently possess some of the flashiest fantasy football weapons in the league including Ben Roethlisberger, Le'veon Bell, and Antonio Brown. Pittsburgh has looked so offensively dominant for stretches of every season over the last half decade that it's easy for analysts and fans to go overboard in their assessment of the state of the franchise overall. The Steelers, after all, have won only a single playoff game in the past 5 seasons, and they're 3-9 versus the Ravens during that very same stretch. Maybe it was Flacco's difficulties for the first three years of his career against black and yellow that gave a lasting impression of the Steelers' dominance over Baltimore in the AFC North, or maybe people pay far too much attention to fantasy football numbers. For one reason or another, the struggles of the Steelers over the last half decade simply haven't registered in the minds of many across the nation.
No one is saying the Steelers haven't had talent. They absolutely have elite talent at certain positions. Their issue has been keeping that talent healthy and out of trouble long enough to make any sort of post-season run. There has also been a profound shift in exactly how the team has been built. Pittsburgh used to have one of the league's fiercest defenses in the previous decade and even into the first year or two of this decade. As the old defensive guard disappeared one by one, the Steelers found themselves leaning more heavily on a pass-happy offense compared to the hard-nosed ground attack that guided them through the post-season for so many years. They hoped to overcome defensive weaknesses with offensive fireworks, and for much of each regular season, that seemed to work. The problem is that flawed defense and over-reliance on an aerial attack still isn't, even in this so-called "quarterback driven league", a recipe for post-season success. Seldom does a team make a deep playoff run without the ability to play hard-nosed defense and run the football.
I know what many of you are likely thinking at this point. The Steelers have an elite running back who just rushed for over 200 yards in the snow against the Bills, so they obviously have the ability to run the football. They also have a handful of rising young defensive players who have helped the Steelers defense ascend to an 8th place ranking late in the season. That ranking, however, is deceiving as it pertains to Sunday's game against the Ravens because it fails to take into account some major injuries to defensive staff as well as the effect the offense has had on keeping the defense off the field.
When the Ravens faced Pittsburgh in Week 7 the Steelers were actually fairly healthy on the defensive side of the ball. Both Cameron Heyward and Ryan Shazier were back from injuries, and they spent most of the day stuffing the Ravens rushing attack. Heyward has since been put on injured reserve, and the other starting defensive end opposite Heyward, Stephon Tuitt, did not practice all week as he has dealt with a knee injury. Tuitt's backup was also injured last week, and the team may find themselves relying on 3rd and 4th string talent up front against the likes of Marshal Yanda and Ronnie Stanley. The Steelers are on a 5-game winning streak, but that streak also coincides with the return of deep-threat tight end Ladarius Green. Ladarius Green has been listed as doubtful to play against the Ravens, and so has the burner wide receiver Sammie Coates. That leaves the Steelers with identical receiving personnel to what they possessed during their mid-season 0-4 stretch.
Sammie Coates was a productive deep threat through the Steelers 4-1 beginning to the season. He averaged 84.2 receiving yards per game during that stretch, but has been slowed and mostly sidelined since Week 6. For the next four games, the Steelers played without a healthy Ladarius Green or Sammie Coates to stretch the field and take pressure off of Antonio Brown, and Pittsburgh did nothing but lose. The Steelers got their first win of their current winning streak against a hopeless Browns team, but even that wasn't particularly convincing from an offensive standpoint as Pittsburgh only led the Browns 17-9 in the 4th quarter before a late pick-6 helped put the game out of reach for the Tomlin and his guys. Ladarius Green was not surprisingly not quite yet healthy and, thus, didn't see a single target in the win over the Browns despite being listed on the active roster that day.
It wasn't until the following week against the Colts that Green finally got healthy and made two critical deep catches to help the Steelers pull away from Indianapolis on Thanksgiving night. The speedy tight end followed that performance up with a breakout game against the Giants with 110 receiving yards and a touchdown against the then red-hot Giants. Green only caught two passes against the Bills the following week, but that game was played in driving snow and Big Ben was horrendously off the mark that day with 3 interceptions. Last week against the Bengals, Ladarius Green caught 5 passes for 72 yards, and was incredibly critical in a game in which the Steelers kicked 6 field goals and won by 4 points.
By now you should have realized a trend. When the Steelers have a legitimate deep threat to compliment Antonio Brown, they win football games. Early in the season, that deep threat was Sammie Coates, and then he became injured and they couldn't stop losing. Later in the season Ladarius Green finally became healthy enough to play and the Steelers began to win again. Now neither man is healthy just in time for one of the most important divisional matchups of the season. The Steelers ultimately did find a way to beat the Bengals late last week even after Green went down with a concussion, but Sammie Coates' hamstring injury in practice only a couple of days ago means that the Steelers will once against be without both players.
You might be thinking at this point that the Steelers will still beat the Ravens because Le'veon Bell is such a fantastic running back, right? He is quite good, but he hasn't exactly found wild success against the Ravens, and he certainly didn't do well against them earlier this season. Le'veon Bell is a strong, shifty, speedy running back, but much of his success comes from the fact that teams typically have to account for so many other weapons in the Steelers' offensive arsenal. The Steelers offense, for example, isn't typically able to pound the run when teams stack the box. Bell's numbers this season with both Ladarius Green and Sammie Coates sidelined are mediocre at best. With a healthy Sammie Coates to stretch opposing offenses during the red-hot start to the Steelers' season, Bell averaged 110 rushing yards per game. As soon as Coates became injured, Bell rushed for an average of 55. 75 yards per game during the Steelers losing streak. With Ladarius Green finally healthy, Bell immediately resumed his statistical dominance with a whopping 142.6 rushing yards per game on the ground. It's also important to note that Bell averaged 155 rushing yards in games with a totally healthy Ladarius Green, but last week that number dipped to 93 rushing yards against the Bengals as Green came out at some point during the game with a concussion.
So who do the Steelers have besides Antonio Brown and Le'veon Bell with Ladarius Green and Sammie Coates out? Well they have Darrius Heyward-Bey who has been next to useless for his entire career and is currently dealing with an injury issue of his own. They also have Eli Rogers who has certainly been far more productive than Heyward-Bey (Heyward-Bey has 68 receiving yards on the season) but certainly doesn't strike fear into the hearts of opposing defenses. Rogers actually had his only 100+ receiving yard game against the Ravens earlier this season, but his presence wasn't enough to keep drives going at critical moments.
One may conclude after reading to this point that I believe the Steelers have not a prayer of winning this football game. That is actually not the case. Jimmy Smith's absence factors heavily into the equation as the Ravens have, at numerous times, struggled defensively with him sidelined. The potential damage to the Ravens defense due to Jimmy Smith's absence is, however, mitigated in this case by the absence of speedy deep threats from the Steelers receiving corps. This situation essentially boils down to numbers--the number of capable receiving weapons versus the number of available quality opposing defensive backs. Antonio Brown should still catch for 100+ yards, but if he's the only one making plays, this could be a disappointing night for Steelers fans. The Ravens will likely look to limit Brown the same way they did earlier this season with double and triple coverage. They'll then force Ben to beat them with the likes of a hobbled Heyward-Bey and Eli Rogers. Having Jimmy Smith certainly would be huge, but the Ravens were able to hold the Bengals to a total of 12 offensive points without Jimmy Smith because of a ferocious pass rush and an emphasis on passes batted down at the line of scrimmage.
One of the most misleading statistics I've seen regarding the Ravens recently is how their defense has performed in Jimmy Smith's absence. It's true that he's a huge piece to the Ravens secondary, but other major defensive pieces such as C.J. Mosley and Elvis Dumervil were also absent for much of the time he was sidelined this season. If the Ravens actually have time to adjust and prepare for life without Jimmy Smith, they actually fare quite well against the Steelers. In 2014, the Ravens faced the Steelers in Pittsburgh right after Jimmy Smith went down with a foot injury, and the Ravens got absolutely demolished. In the playoffs of that very same season, however, the Ravens had game-planned and adjusted to playing without Smith, and they throttled the Steelers in Pittsburgh 31-17.
The Ravens offense, on the other hand, has found a rhythm as of late. Baltimore faced three straight teams that each trounced the Steelers this season, and the Ravens offense averaged 29.3 points per game against those three teams. With major injuries to the Steelers defensive line, and a totally healthy Ravens offensive line, Baltimore should be able to control the line of scrimmage and sustain more scoring drives than the Steelers. A fully healthy Steelers team would likely easily be enough to beat a Jimmy Smith-less Ravens team in Pittsburgh, but this is nowhere near a fully healthy Steelers team. Their lack of depth in receiving weapons and quality defensive ends makes them a far more beatable team for a Ravens team that simply has had their number since 2011. It's always possible that Joe Flacco could have one of the worst games of his season, but that doesn't tend to happen when his offensive line is healthy. I'll be interested to see if Alex Lewis makes an appearance at right tackle after two weeks of practice. It's also possible that he'll come in for Marshal Yanda if the all-pro guard needs a breather from the left side.
RAVENS AT STEELERS PREDICTION:
This game will by no means be easy. The Ravens haven't won many games on the road this season, and barely beating the Eagles at home last week certainly didn't instill confidence in the hearts of Baltimoreans, but the Steelers only barely escaped a loss to a middling team last week as well. The Steelers' offensive production, both passing and rushing, simply falls off a cliff without deep threats, and the Steelers defensive line won't be strong enough to suffocate a Ravens rushing attack that has come alive as of late. We should still expect plenty of field goals, and the team with the better kicker absolutely has an advantage. This will be a physical, all-out battle, but the Ravens are healthier and quite familiar with their opponent. RAVENS 26-19
I MUST APOLOGIZE TO READERS FOR NOT POSTING LEAGUE-WIDE PREDICTIONS THIS WEEKEND. THE SCHEDULING OF MOST OF THIS WEEK'S GAMES ON A SATURDAY ALONG WITH FAMILY OBLIGATIONS FOR CHRISTMAS TIME HAS LEFT ME WITHOUT ENOUGH TIME TO GIVE PREDICTIONS THE CAREFUL CONSIDERATION THEY DESERVE. HAPPY HOLIDAYS, EVERYONE!!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!!!
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