RAIDERS AT TEXANS
Seldom do we see a 9-7 team secure homefield advantage over a team that finished the season 12-4. The Houston Texans won their division and, therefore, finished with a higher playoff seed than a Raiders team that was ultimately edged by the Chiefs for the AFC West division crown. A strong case could be made that final regular season record, not a divisional crown, should be the sole decider in playoff seeding, but that's simply how the system works right now.
To add insult to literally injury for the Raiders, Oakland's starting quarterback, Derek Carr, broke his leg and will not suit up for the playoffs. Carr should have been in top contention for the league MVP award given his fantastic performance this season coupled with the incredible drop-off in performance his team experienced in his absence last week against a Broncos team that the Raiders previously soundly defeated 30-20 with Carr at the helm. Carr's replacement, Connor Cook, had never started a single NFL game prior to last week. The Raiders, as a matter of fact, lost to the Broncos 24-6 in a game that WOULD have given Oakland the division crown had they won.
One has but to look at Cook's performance last week to see the profound drop-off the Raider's offense experiences in Carr's absence. Connor Cook finished with 150 passing yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Derek Carr, by contrast, averaged 262 passing yards per game over the course of the season, and he led his offense to a top 10 ranking in both yardage and points scored. Let's be clear though about one point though: the Raiders didn't simply lose because Connor Cook isn't great. The Raiders were blown out because the Raiders have little defense to speak of beyond Khalil Mack, and because they can't lean on any sort of running game without Carr to spread defenses out with his receivers. Carr, in fact, may have been able to make a much better case for MVP in the minds of those voting for the award if his defense had been slightly better in order to give him more possessions and offensive opportunities per game. Sadly for Oakland, the Raiders run defense ranked 23rd in the league and their pass defense ranked 24th. Oakland's defense, ironically, benefitted heavily from their offense's success in that it helped to keep them off the field. The Raiders defense could have easily been ranked much lower if it weren't for Derek Carr's talent and execution.
The Houston Texans aren't exactly in love with their starting quarterback. Brock Osweiler has been nothing short of a disappointment in the 2016 season and has nowhere NEAR justified his $72 million payday. The Texans, however, finished the season with the highest rated defense in the league in terms of average yards allowed per game and 11th in the league in points allowed per game. That defensive ranking is made all the more impressive by the fact that the Texans offense finished the season 29th in the NFL in yards per game and 28th in points scored. The Texans did excel in one particular offensive area; they ran the football quite well. Houston finished ranked 8th in rushing yards per game this season, and their ability to both run the football and play hard-nosed defense should help them just as much as their homefield advantage in this game.
Oakland finished the season with an even higher ranked rushing offense than Houston. The Raiders averaged roughly 9 more yards per game than the Texans, but much of that had to do with the Raiders' aforementioned ability to spread out opposing defenses with their aerial attack and open things up for the run. Without Carr last week, the Raiders were only able to rush for 57 yards against Denver. When the Raiders faced the Broncos earlier this season with Derek Carr leading the charge, Oakland rushed for a whopping 218 yards. Even when Carr doesn't throw for incredible yardage, his mobility and his effectiveness as a passer creates far more opportunities for his team's rushing attack.
This is a rather disappointing matchup for the playoffs. The Raiders' reliance on a currently injured quarterback means almost certain victory for the Texans, but the Texans have little chance to advance beyond a win this week. The AFC playoff field features at least 2-3 teams that have little to no shot of unseating the Patriots in Foxborough, and won't exactly help the NFL in a season where ratings have been uncharacteristically low for one reason or another. Let's hope the NFC offers a decent deal more excitement.
PREDICTION:
The Raiders will struggle to move the ball consistently against one of the top defenses in the league. Oakland only barely edged Houston in the last meeting between these teams, and that was with a healthy Derek Carr. Expect the Texans to lean on their rushing attack, and expect a decent performance from DeAndre Hopkins.
TEXANS 23-13
LIONS AT SEAHAWKS
Now THIS is a far more difficult matchup to predict. The Lions made the playoffs at 9-7, but they both started and ended the season on three-game losing streaks. Meanwhile the Seahawks defense simply hasn't been the same since all-pro safety Earl Thomas went on injured reserve several weeks ago as was evidenced by the fact that Seattle only barely beat the bottom-feeding 49ers 25-23 in the final week of the regular season.
In order to correctly predict this game we must discard all irrelevant statistical information. For the Seahwaks, that means determining exactly what kind of a drop-off the Seahawks defense experienced with the loss of Earl Thomas, and then it may possibly mean totally ignoring defensive statistics from all the games in which he played this season. Earl Thomas played in 11 of the first 12 games of the season, and during that time the Seahawks went 8-2-1. Thomas himself collected 48 tackles, 2 interceptions, and 10 passes defensed. Thomas missed games late in the season against the Buccaneers, Packers, Rams, Cardinals, and 49ers, and the Seahawks went 2-3 in those games. More troubling was how poorly the Seahawks defense performed without Earl Thomas in games against foes they had already handled easily in earlier games.
The Seahawks beat the 49ers resoundingly 37-18 early in the season, but barely squeaked by San Francisco 25-23 last week. In last week's game, the 49ers actually edged the Seahawks in time of possession by roughly one minute, and they converted on 4th down in two of their 3 attempts. The 49ers were successful in scoring in all three of their trips into the redzone, and kept the game incredibly close despite turning the ball over twice. In Earl Thomas' absence, a nearly useless Colin Kaepernick threw for 215 passing yards. With Earl Thomas present earlier in the season, the 49ers were held to 119 passing yards and the Seahawks dominated the time of possession by roughly 11 minutes--and that was even after Russell Wilson exited the game with an injury.
The more profound and telling contrast between Earl Thomas' presence and absence can be seen in the Seahawks' two games against the Cardinals this season. Thomas was present for the Seahawks' 6-6 overtime tie in Arizona in the middle of the season. With Thomas patrolling the defensive backfield, Carson Palmer was held entirely out of the endzone. Without Thomas, however, things were quite different. The Seahawks lost to the Cardinals a startling 34-31 after the Seahawks lost their starting free safety. Not only did the Seahawks lose their first home game of the season, but Earl Thomas' absence allowed the Cardinals to put up 17 passing first downs and 20 forth quarter points. The Cardinals also dominated time of possession by roughly 7 minutes, and outscored the Seahawks 14-3 in the first half of the game.
Earl Thomas' presence both helps take away opposing receiving threats and gives Seahawks pass rushers more opportunity to get to opposing quarterbacks. With Thomas the Seahawks sacked Carson Palmer 4 times and pressured him heavily all game. Without Thomas, the Seahawks only sacked Carson Palmer once. Without their star safety, the Seahawks had to commit more manpower from their linebacker corps to try to stop the Cardinals passing attack, but in doing so the Seahawks gave up much of their ability to stop the Cardinals on the ground and they allowed three rushing touchdowns. Mind you--all of this happened at home--in Seattle.
Now the Lions haven't exactly been road warriors. Their only road victories came against the Colts, Vikings, and Saints, and all three of those teams have struggled this season. One might say a 3-5 road record would spell doom for a team heading into Seattle in the playoffs, but let's not forget for one second assume that this game will be a rout without arguably the most important member of the legion of boom missing. The Seahawks are 7-1 at home on the year, but their only home loss came since Earl Thomas' season-ending injury. The Lions also performed better against a common opponent recently. Detroit lost 31-24 in a tight game against the Packers to finish the regular season. The Seahawks, on the other hand, were blown out by the Packers 38-10 only one month ago.
The Lions haven't exactly had an easy schedule to finish their season. They faced the Packers, Giants, and Cowboys, and those are literally the hottest teams in the NFC and arguably the league. Neither the Seahawks nor the Lions are strong enough to go on the road and beat the Giants, Cowboys, or Packers, but this should actually prove a fairly evenly matched game. Seattle and Detroit have averaged almost exactly the same number of points per game this season, and neither team has played particularly impressive defense as of late.
PREDICTIONS:
Seattle's defense isn't nearly the same as it was for most of the regular season without Earl Thomas, but Russell Wilson should be able to put together some critical drives to put this game away. The biggest weakness the of the Lions will be their dome team identity. Two of the Lions three road wins this season were inside dome stadiums. There are few harsher outdoor road venues than Seattle in the playoffs.
SEATTLE 27-23
Most Ravens fans feel justifiably deflated after a 4th quarter collapse on Christmas Day to the Steelers, but no one should feel particularly upset about losing to the Bengals last week. It's understandable that many felt the Ravens should give Steve Smith Sr. one last triumphant win for his career, but it's more important for the team that the highest draft position is attained. The only way the Ravens will make it back to the playoffs is an incredibly strong draft position as they organization only has so much maneuvering they can achieve through free agency because of a relatively tight salary cap situation. Corner, offensive line, wide receiver, and pass rusher need to be the major points of emphasis in the draft. With the 16th spot, the Ravens will hopefully be able address most of those needs and fill any other gaps with reasonably priced veteran free agents. This team is, despite what many think, trending in the right direction, but they need a strong draft, and losing to the Bengals was the best way to ensure that.
LET'S HOPE THE PLAYOFFS ARE EXCITING!
NOW AND FOREVER
GO RAVENS!!! (GO GET SOME CORNERS!!)
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