DOLPHINS AT STEELERS
Analyzing the Steelers from a statistical standpoint has been tricky this season. The same could easily be said of the Dolphins as well. Key injuries for both teams have meant the difference between dominant performances and perplexing losses. With a healthy offensive line, the Dolphins appeared unstoppable as Jay Ajayi rumbled over teams such as the Steelers. With deep threats on the field to compliment Antontio Brown, the Steelers appeared offensively elite as Ben Roethlisberger skillfully distributes the ball to a handful of receivers to open things up for Le'veon Bell on the ground. Without a healthy offensive line for the Dolphins and a healthy receiving corps for the Steelers, however, both teams struggled mightily. The Steelers went on a 4 game losing streak and the Dolphins got absolutely blasted by a Ravens team clicking on all cylinders.
Well now both of these teams are as healthy as they're going to be leading into the wildcard round matchup in Pittsburgh, and the question is which team will be stronger than the other with their current available personnel. In order to determine this, we'll have to examine the personnel of each these teams in their last meeting as compared to what will take the field this weekend. We'll also have to examine how each team has done at home as opposed to on the road this season as the last meeting between these teams took place in a different venue with vastly different physical conditions.
The Steelers are 6-2 at home this season, and the Miami Dolphins went 4-4 on the road. The only home games the Steelers lost were against the two top teams in the league this season, the Patriots and Cowboys. Against the Patriots, the Steelers started Landry Jones in place of an injured Ben Roethlisberger and still only lost 27-16. Against the Cowboys, the Steelers lost in arguably the most explosive 4th quarter ending to a game of the season. The Steelers don't have many home losses from which to draw conclusions, and the loss to the Patriots can immediately be dismissed from a statistical standpoint because of the absence of Ben Roethlisberger. The loss to the Cowboys, however, is another story.
The Steelers' loss in Pittsburgh to the Dallas Cowboys demonstrated a fundamental weakness against teams with strong run-blocking offensive lines. To be fair, nearly every team except the Giants has fallen victim to the strength and talent of the Cowboys offensive line, and the Steelers played them as closely as any team in the league outside of New York. The Dolphins, when healthy, have an impressive offensive line of their own. Miami, in fact, hasn't lost a game this season when all five of their starting offensive linemen have been healthy. So will all five of those linemen be healthy today? Well that idea is impossible as starting center Mike Pouncey was placed on injured reserve this season. The Dolphins offensive line is, nevertheless, still mostly healthy. One would think that would point to a big day on the ground for the Dolphins reminiscent of their last matchup wherein Jay Ajayi rushed for over 200 yards. Not so fast.
One key defensive absence from the last meeting between these teams was speedy linebacker Ryan Shazier. Shazier's absence against the Dolphins earlier this season was an absolute game-changer. The biggest knock on Shazier during his career thus far has been his tendency to find himself on the injury report, but his health over the past two months has helped to solidify the Steelers front 7 against the run. One might ask how the Ravens were then able to essentially impose their will on the ground for a handful of drives in Pittsburgh two weeks ago, but that had to do with another major injury.
Stephon Tuitt is one of two starting defensive ends for the Steelers that played against the Ravens earlier this season and absolutely shut down Baltimore's running game in the first meeting. Since then, the Steelers lost their other starting defensive end, Cameron Heyward, and they played their second game against the Ravens without Tuitt who suffered from a sprained knee at the time. With two more weeks of rest, Tuitt has been a full participant at practice this week, and his presence will be a big factor in slowing the Dolphins' ground attack.
The Dolphins will be without Ryan Tannehill for the second straight week, but Tannehill's backup, Matt Moore, proved himself more than capable in the Dolphins' overtime win over the Bills in Buffalo on Christmas Eve Day. I actually believe Moore throws a better deep ball than Tannehill, and in that regard he may be better suited to take advantage of a potent array of speedy Dolphins receivers. The Steelers, despite the health of Shazier and Tuitt, will have to commit a lot to stopping Jay Ajayi. Ajayi's incredible burst and tackle-breaking physical running style makes him frustratingly difficult to bring down with only a single tackler. It is for this reason that the Dolphins should be able to put up a productive, balanced offensive attack in Pittsburgh today.
The problem for Miami will be that the Steelers' offensive attack will likely be more effective against a Dolphins' secondary without its top cornerback, Byron Maxwell. The Steelers didn't exactly light up the Ravens for the first three quarters on Christmas Day, but they embarrassed Baltimore with 3 forth quarter touchdowns when running a hurry-up offense. That Baltimore defense, despite it's flaws, was simply better than that of the Dolphins--especially without Byron Maxwell. The Dolphins linebackers struggle in pass coverage, and the tandem of Cameron Wake and Ndamukong Suh haven't nearly been dominant enough as of late to suggest they can consistently pressure Ben Roethlisberger. Suh had a red-hot start to the season with 5 passes defensed, 6 tackles for a loss, and 2.5 sacks though the first 10 weeks of the season. Through the last 6 games, however, Suh has one pass defenses, 1 tackle for a loss, and another 2.5 sacks. The sack total isn't terrible, but Suh has been far less of an all-around threat. Through Cameron Wake's first 10 weeks he had a whopping 10 sacks, but over the course of his last 6 weeks Wake has totaled only 1.5.
It's possible that both Wake and Suh have simply become worn down by the lengthy season, but the more likely reason behind a drop-off in production from these defenders is a banged up Dolphins secondary. With key members of the secondary absent for roughly the last month and a half of the season, opposing quarterbacks have been able to get rid of the football much quicker and, thus, neutralize the pass rush. The Steelers' offensive line has been vastly improved this season, and Pittsburgh has easily enough receiving/rushing threats to whom Ben can distribute the ball quickly and keep Suh and Wake at bay.
More significant to this game than all other injuries to personnel is the fact that Ben Roethlisberger will be healthy at kickoff. Ben tore his meniscus during the last meeting between these teams and despite the fact that he returned to the game, he was unquestionably hobbled by the injury. If Ben doesn't incur another injury today, the Dolphins will have a tall task stopping him with their defensive personnel. The temperature in Pittsburgh is well below freezing today, and that should make conditions difficult for a Dolphins team that is used to playing in one of the consistently warmest climates in the country.
There would be nothing I'd love more on this cold January Sunday than to be proven totally wrong by the Dolphins, but there's simply too much working against them. The Steelers are coming off of a virtual bye week as they rested their starters last week and still managed to beat the Brows. The Dolphins should be able to move the football, but it's unreasonable to expect them to be able to topple the Steelers in Pittsburgh with a backup quarterback and a banged up secondary. The Steelers have the edge offensively and they have a big advantage defensively. It's simply a bad matchup for Miami.
PREDICTION:
I won't discount the possibility of major injuries in extreme cold weather that could greatly affect the outcome of this game, but there's simply no way to predict them. The Steelers simply appear healthier and better prepared for this matchup. Jay Ajayi should rush for over 100 yards, but he won't rush for 200. Rushing for 200 yards may not even be enough to win this game. The Dolphins would need a major aerial assault on a Steelers secondary that has improved greatly over the course of this season. This is a pick-your-poison situation for the Dolphins. If they commit to stopping Le'veon Bell, Ben will light them up through the air. If they drop everyone back into pass coverage to stop Antonio Brown and company, Le'veon Bell will gash them on the ground.
STEELERS 33-21
STAY TUNED FOR MY SUNDAY NFC PREDICTION!
LET'S HOPE FOR GREAT PLAYOFF FOOTBALL
AND AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!
GO GET BETTER SO YOU TOO CAN PARTAKE IN PLAYOFF FOOTBALL...
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