Saturday's games don't appear nearly as exciting as Sunday's playoff matchups this week. The chances that the Texans, who lost to the Patriots 27-0 with Tom Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo out earlier this season, have any legitimate shot of going into Foxboro and upsetting a rested Patriots team are slim to none. That matchup epitomizes the lopsided level of competition found in nearly every playoff game thus far. Fortunately for NFL fans, today's first game could end up being the tough fought battle that usually characterizes the playoffs.
SEAHAWKS AT FALCONS
This isn't the first time these teams will have met this season. The Falcons lost to the Seahawks 26-24 in Seattle in Week 6, but things will be quite a bit different over 3000 miles away in the Georgia Dome this time around. The Falcons are rested and boast the NFL's top scoring offense averaging a whopping 33.8 points per game. Not only have they put the most points on the board this season, but they've done it in a far more balanced fashion than we're used to seeing from Matt Ryan and company. The Falcons rank 5th in rushing yards per game and 3rd in passing yards per game. It's the potent rushing attack that will make it difficult for the Seahawks to simply pin their ears back and go after Matt Ryan, who is already quite mobile and evasive already.
The Seahawks dominated the Lions last weekend at home, but that shouldn't have shocked anyone. Not only are the Seahawks traditionally strong at home, but they were playing against a dome team with no historical road success in the playoffs in decades. The Seahawks, however, are 3-4-1 on the road this season, and their secondary no longer features Earl Thomas after the All-Pro safety went on injured reserve earlier this season.
People often say that defense travels well, but many great defensive teams rely on a home crowd to suffocate opposing offenses with noise. The Seahawks enjoy record-setting home crowd noise, and Seahawks fans pride themselves on being known collectively as the 12th man for their profound effect on the outcome of games. The Seahawks will enjoy no such advantage when they take the field later today.
The Seahawks appeared to have a ferocious offense last week with spectacular catches coming from relatively unknown back up receivers and a thunderous running game, but nothing about that performance can be applied to today's prediction. As I look over the Seahawk's last few road games I'm appalled by what I see. The Seahawks probably hit a peak when they went into Foxboro earlier this season and beat the Patriots, but they haven't flashed that level of dominance on the road since. Seattle has, in fact, been offensively atrocious on the road for quite some time.
Since beating the Patriots in Foxboro 9 weeks ago, the Seahawks have played 3 road games against the Buccaneers, Packers, and 49ers. The Seahawks lost to the Buccaneers 14-5, got dominated by the Packers 38-10, and barely squeaked by a terrible 49ers team 25-23. That means that the Seahawks have averaged just 13.33 points per game on the road in the second half of the regular season. That average might be a lot lower if their final road win hadn't been against the 49ers. The 49ers, after all, have the worst scoring defense in the league and allowed a depressing 30 points per game this season. The fact that the Seahawks couldn't even score as much as the 49ers allow on average is truly telling about Seattle's road offense.
The more I look at the drop-off in the Seahawks offense takes on the road, the more profound it appears. The Seahawks offense scored a commanding 28.375 points per game at home, but that number dropped to an alarming 15.875 on the road this season--that's nearly a 2 touchdown disparity! That's one of the most pronounced home-road disparities of any winning team in the NFL this year. It's difficult to know why that is the case, but it's a horrible sign for Seattle.
Now the Falcons don't boast a high powered defense. Atlanta ranks 25th in overall offensive yards allowed this season, 28th in passing yards allowed, and 17th in rushing yards allowed. Most importantly, the Falcons ranked 27th in points allowed, and that has been reflected in the close, high scoring games they've played this season. The Falcons have also allowed a staggering 27.75 points per game at home and went 5-3 in the Georgia Dome this season. The key is that the Falcons scored an average of exactly 35 points per game at home this season.
PREDICTION:
It's difficult to insist that this game will be a blowout because of all the close games the Falcons have played this season, but the Seahawks offense has been so perplexingly bad on the road for the past couple of months that it's difficult to imagine them being able to keep up with the NFL's most potent offense. The Falcons didn't exactly struggle to score on the Seahawks in Seattle earlier this season, and now they'll be facing that same Seahawks defense without the 12th man and without Earl Thomas. Seattle has stated that they aim to put big pressure on Matt Ryan, but it's difficult to imagine them having great success doing so with Devonta Freeman running the football. The Falcons defense may not be great, but it's around the middle of the pack against the run, and that should help them against a run-heavy Seahawks offense. The bottom line is that the Seahawks offense can't help their own defense out enough on the road to ultimately outscore the top offense in football. The Seahawks are a force at home, but just plain bad on the road in recent months.
FALCONS 27-20
TEXANS AT PATRIOTS
I really don't feel compelled to dignify this matchup with statistical analysis. Some people will points to the Texans defense as a reason that this game could be interesting, but those same people forget that the Patriots defense allowed fewer points than the Texans defense this season. The Patriots defense, in fact, allowed the fewest points of any team in the NFL this season. It is, therefore, difficult to give any unit on the Texans team any sort of advantage over any particular unit of the Patriots.
Let's not forget that the Patriots used their third string quarterback to beat this Texans team 27-0 in Week 3 of the regular season. This is a Texans team that only went 9-7 and still managed to win an incredibly weak AFC South division. Much like the Seahawks the Texans are not an offensive power on the road. The Texans, in fact, average a disturbing 12.25 points on the road, and they're about to go up against the NFL's stingiest defense. The Texans are 2-6 on the road this season with their only road wins coming against the Jaguars and Colts.
No team can go into Foxborough having only scored 98 points in 8 road games over the course of a regular season and expect to beat a Patriots team coming off of a bye week. This game will be fun to watch only for Patriots fans (and even they might get bored after a little while) and anyone who bet that the Patriots will win by even MORE than the current 15 point spread. Ironically, the Texans may once again see a Patriots backup quarterback, but it will only be because Bill Belichick decides to sit Brady as the man will undoubtedly be exhausted from beating the Texans mercilessly.
PREDICTION:
If a third string Patriots quarterback can lead New England to a 27-0 victory against the Texans, Tom Brady will likely put up nearly the same type of points before the 4th quarter. The Texans offense simply can't stay on the field long enough to give the Houston's defense a chance to breathe. The Texans won't even begin to score (if they score at all) until Bill starts to rest even many of his defensive starters in the 4th quarter. Gotta save some for next week. Just because I'm being cavalier in my assessment of this upcoming blowout doesn't mean the Patriots didn't spend every minute of the past two weeks zeroing in on how to ensure a decisive victory. Expect a focused Patriots team looking to take care of business before moving on to the next, presumably more challenging game.
PATRIOTS 34-10
As far as the Ravens are concerned, it appears as though the brain trust of Ozzie Newsome, Eric DeCosta, John Harbaugh, Steve Bisciotti and several others will adjourn to Florida to map out the gameplan for the off-season. The biggest off-season concerns will be bolstering the offensive line, adding a reliable veteran in the general mold of Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Smith, finding serious cornerbacks via trade, the draft, or free agency, and figuring out how to create maneuverability in the salary cap by cutting, trading, or renegotiating with veterans.
The Ravens never truly had the pieces to make a push for a Super Bowl this season, but they certainly added a handful of necessary pieces. Eric Weddle and Mike Wallace added comparable veteran production to what the Ravens had with Torrey Smith and Ed Reed several years ago, and Baltimore can expect to get at least good 1-2 quality seasons out of each player. Pressure on Joe Flacco to work with and develop chemistry with his receivers should yield good results in the coming months. Joe didn't have an off-season to train in 2016 as he spent all of his time recovering from a torn ACL. Flacco will have far more time and pressure to correct habitual mistakes seen over the past season, and he'll be able to work with Marty Mornhinweg as well.
What we do know about this Ravens team is that it was able to be far more competitive on the road against many of the best teams in the league this year than a good number of the teams that actually made the playoffs. The 4-game losing streak of the first half of the season took away the ability of what ultimately turned out to be a reasonably good team to make the playoffs. When I met John Harbaugh last April and he took a brief look at this website, he asked me if I had been one of the writers to criticize harshly for a 5-11 season in 2015. I told him that no team could withstand that level of injuries and be successful, and I told him that sometimes a team needs to take one step back in order to take two steps forward.
The Ravens did take a couple of steps forward this season as they won 3 more games and improved their defense overall. By only winning 8 games, the Ravens set themselves up to pick in the middle of the draft order, and that may very well yield the next Ravens Pro Bowler whether it be an outstanding offensive lineman, a talented cornerback, an elite running back with breakaway speed, or a ferocious pass rushing outside linebacker.
Baltimore had a host of questions and a tremendous about of uncertainty following the 2015 season. This time around they no longer have to wonder about key veterans coming back from major injuries, and they know quite well that they're only a couple of plays in several games away from being 10-6, 11-5, or even 12-4. Their new strength coach, Steve Saunders, did an amazing job helping to make sure athletes took the preventative measures to reduce the chances of ACL tears, and surprise surprise....there were none to speak of in 2016. This team is in a good place going into 2017, and the organization has shown in the past how well it can do under pressure.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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