Adrian Peterson had an absolutely astonishing 2012 season. He almost set a new single season rushing record and singlehandedly carried his otherwise unimpressive team to the playoffs. If his performance alone wasn't impressive enough, Peterson achieved all of that less than a year after tearing an ACL. Adrian Peterson hasn't reached the same level of success in 2013. His team has only won 3 games, and with just over 1200 rushing yards and only 4 more weeks of the regular season, Peterson likely won't get anywhere near the same rushing total he amassed last year.
Despite a comparatively lower degree of success this season, Adrian Peterson has still been one of the best running backs in the league. He's on pace for over 1600 rushing yards, and any other running back in the league would be thrilled to reach that number even just once over the course of their career. Peterson's efforts this season, however, have proven mostly in vain as his team hasn't performed well enough to even approach the possibility of a playoff berth. When the Vikings travel to Baltimore this weekend they will be met with an elite run defense (6th in the NFL). Should the Ravens be afraid of one of the league's most dynamic weapons or should a team that depends almost entirely on the production of one rushing weapon be afraid of an impressive Ravens defense in its own house?
To answer these questions we must first examine exactly how Adrian Peterson has performed against other run defenses of similar strength to that of the Ravens this season. The Vikings faced the Detroit Lions and their 3rd ranked run defense in Week 1. Peterson had a good game, but he was held under 100 yards rushing, and almost all of his yards came on one 78 yard run. The Lions kept Peterson mostly bottled up for the rest of the game. In Week 3 the Vikings faced the Browns and their 5th ranked run defense. Against Cleveland, Adrian Peterson was once again held under 100 rushing yards with an average of only 3.5 yards per carry. In Week 6 the Vikings faced the Panthers and their 2nd ranked run defense. Peterson rushed for a total of only 62 yards in that game, but it wasn't because he wasn't having success when he touched the football, and that brings us to an important point.
I could sit here and continue to list elite rushing defenses the Vikings faced and explain that Adrian Peterson failed to perform dominantly against them, but I'll save you the task of reading such tedious material. When facing top 10 defenses this season, Adrian Peterson has not rushed for 100 or more yards and his team has lost. The game against the Panthers, however, demonstrates exactly how to beat the Vikings even when Peterson is averaging 6.2 yards per carry as he did that day. The Panthers have possibly the best defense in the league this season, and it's a miracle the Vikings enjoyed even a little bit of success passing the ball the day they faced Carolina. The Panthers also scored first and enjoyed a 14-3 lead at halftime over the Vikings. It was because of this early lead that the Vikings elected to take the ball out of the hands of their only serious weapon and put it in the hands of Matt Cassel. Adrian Peterson finished with only 10 carries on the day and zero touchdowns.
The key for the Ravens to beating the Vikings should be to committing to stopping Adrian Peterson and scoring as much as possible in the first half against a Vikings defense that has allowed an average of 31.4 points per game on the road this season. If the Ravens attain and hold an early lead, then can force the Vikings to limit Adrian Peterson's carries and pass the ball with Matt Cassel and a group of less-than-threatening wide receivers. It's not that Peterson is no longer a great running back--he is--but the Vikings defense, passing attack, and running blocking are all simply not good enough this season to provide him with the support he needs to be as dominant as in 2012.
Peterson has had some great games this season, but none of them have been against elite run defenses. The Vikings haven't won a single game on the road, and they almost certainly won't break that streak in Baltimore. The Ravens will be coming off of a 10 days rest period and they finished their last game with a minimal number of injuries. Expect Baltimore to see the return of Dennis Pitta as well. Harbaugh stated that he's hopeful Pitta will play against the Vikings, and if he does so, the Vikings' porous defense will likely witness the awakening of a sleeping giant that is the Ravens offense. The addition of a top tier tight end would complete what is otherwise an offense saturated with weapons. I don't expect Pitta to play every snap as this will be his first game back, but he'll come in when the Ravens reach the redzone, and I wouldn't be surprised to even see him grab a touchdown pass. This should be one of the biggest wins of the season for the Ravens, and it will likely be an important springboard into a treacherous road trip to Detroit in the following week.
THURSDAY NIGHT NFL PREDICTION
TEXANS AT JAGUARS- The Texans had a heartbreaking loss against the Patriots last week that showed that Houston can still stand toe to toe with a top team...they just can't win. The Jaguars were once thought to be the worst team in the NFL, but after their bye week Jacksonville has won almost all of their games. At home, the Jaguars should win this one against the CURRENT worst team in the league, but I also wouldn't be terribly surprised if the Texans came out swinging in this battle just for the sake of pride. JAGUARS 33-24.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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