Let's forget for a moment that the Ravens are in a great position to win the AFC North, win a home game in the first round of the playoffs, and possibly even win a 2nd seed if the Patriots lose their next two games (C'MON BILLS!!). Forget that the vast majority of sports analysts picked the Lions to beat the Ravens on Monday night. Focus on the fact that Justin Tucker has kicked 33 straight field goals, the last of which just set a Ravens record for longest kick in franchise history and an NFL record for longest field goal in a dome in history. Justin Tucker is essentially Matt Stover 2.0 in consistency and leg strength. Stover never possessed the strength to boom kickoffs out of the back of the endzone or come anywhere NEAR a successful 61 yard attempt. Not to take anything away from Stover...he is one of the greatest Ravens ever, but Tucker could simply eclipse everything that #3 ever did. Only time will tell, but right now Tucker has the confidence and consistency to be a Pro Bowl kicker. If Justin Tucker DOESN'T in fact go to the Pro Bowl this season, it should only be because he's gearing up for his second straight Super Bowl appearance. Maybe I'm getting ahead of myself, but this kid can kick and he proved it Monday night.
Now let's get right back to all of those things I asked you to forget at the beginning of the last paragraph. The Ravens face two division-leading teams to finish out their season. Those division-leading teams, however, are remarkably vulnerable at this point in the season. The Patriots find themselves particularly slowed by their lack of a dominant, giant tight end. The Bengals find themselves slowed by the loss of a large number of defensive cogs this season including a number of cornerbacks and their best defensive lineman. The Steelers showed the world just how beatable the Bengals are--not that the Ravens didn't already know that after BEATING THEM EARLIER THIS SEASON. The way Matt Cassel has played in the last two weeks, it's entirely possible that the Bengals lose their two remaining games and find themselves out of the playoffs entirely if the Dolphins can win at least one of their two remaining games. Let's stick to the task at hand, however, which is beating the Patriots in Baltimore next Sunday.
I won't pretend that beating the Patriots is an easy task. It most certainly is not. This is a Patriots team that still possesses excellent coaching, a top-notch quarterback, and enough receiving weapons to complete furious drives downfield. It is, nevertheless, a team that no longer possesses its biggest redzone receiving weapon who also happens to be a thunderous blocker. No longer do the Patriots have any serious threats that pose anything real physical mismatch issues with Ravens defensive backs and linebackers. Michael Hoomanawanui made a great touchdown grab against the Dolphins on Sunday, but it was also his first touchdown this year and his only catch all game last weekend. If the Ravens can keep Megatron out of the endzone, don't expect Hoomanawanui to have a tremendous amount of success there. The Patriots, instead, possess a handful of smaller, agile receivers such as Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman. It is for this reason that the Patriots will still be competitive next Sunday when they visit M&T Bank Stadium.
Fortunately for the Ravens, Jimmy Smith, Lardarius Webb, James Ihedigbo, Corey Graham, and even Matt Elam have played extremely well as of late. They've faced a laundry list of some of the best receivers in the league including Andre Johnson, A.J. Green, Brandon Marshall, Josh Gordon, Antonio Brown, Alshon Jeffrey, and most recently Calvin Johnson. The Ravens did not allow a single one of these receivers to catch for 100+ yards. The Ravens won't have to worry as much about big plays downfield with the Patriots. Baltimore will, instead, have to deal with quick, short passes to quick, short receivers. Tom Brady's quick release and pin-point accuracy both make getting pressure on the Super Bowl winning quarterback difficult, but the Ravens have done it in the past and they can do it again.
The Ravens have a few major reasons they should be favored going into next week's game against the Patriots in Baltimore. The first is that the Patriots' injuries extend far beyond just Rob Gronkowski. Patriots receivers Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson were also out last week against the Dolphins and are listed as questionable at this point. Patriots offensive tackle Nate Solder suffered another concussion against the Dolphins, and that could keep him out against the Ravens on Sunday. Defensively speaking the Patriots lost a lot when Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo suffered season-ending injuries. One factor minimized the appearance of those defensive injuries and that was the return of Rob Gronkowski. Shortly after the Patriots lost two integral defensive pieces, they got back their biggest offensive weapon and made up for defensive deficiencies with offensive production. Suddenly the Patriots weren't just edging teams, they were putting up 55 points on the Steelers or waging furious comebacks against the Broncos after being down by an impossible first half deficit.
Well now the Patriots are out Wilfork, Mayo, AND Gronkowski all at once. All three of these losses are now painfully apparent as the Patriots dropped their first game to the Dolphins in roughly half a decade last week. The Dolphins have improved as of late, but one has to assume the Fins wouldn't have had nearly the same opportunity to win with Vince Wilfork bulldozing through the Dolphins' uneven offensive line and Rob Gronkowski as a target in that final Patriots offensive drive. Injuries, however, are part of the game, and the truly dominant teams are the ones that possess the depth to deal with personnel losses and keep winning. The Patriots have dealt with personnel losses all season and have continued to be victorious, but their roster may have simply hit its tipping point recently with the loss of Gronkowski.
The second major reason the Ravens should be favored going into next week's showdown with the Patriots is the Ravens' homefield advantage. The Ravens won in heart-stopping fashion last night on the road to prove to the world that they can win in playoff-style environments, but they're unquestionably better at home. The deafening roar of the Ravens' fan base makes operating an opposing offense diffucult, and the lack of a deafening roar while the Ravens are on offense allows Flacco and company to communicate unimpeded by noise. The Ravens offense operates better at home not because it scores vastly more points at home...it doesn't. The Ravens have scored 151 points at home and 145 points on the road this season, but the points on the road often come too little too late, and slow starts doomed the Ravens in many of their road losses. Much of the Ravens points on the road were essentially garbage time scores. Being at home allows the Ravens to score early and not take tremendous risks with the football that might lead to turnovers.
I wouldn't count on the Patriots defense wreaking enough havoc to lead to a Ravens loss. The third major reason the Ravens should be favored is that the Patriots have a poorly ranked defense (24th overall). The Patriots are 31st in the league in rushing yards allowed (132.5 per game) and 18th in the league in pass yards allowed (240.2 per game). The Patriots have had a formidable pass rush overall this season with 40 sacks, but the Ravens have held for more impressive defensive fronts away from Flacco including that of the Jets and Lions. The Ravens offensive line still struggles to run block at times, but they have become excellent pass blockers lately, and that's exactly what is going to allow the Ravens to open up on a mediocre Patriots pass defense.
I would be getting far ahead of myself if I predicted the outcome of the Ravens-Patriots game less than 24 hours after the Ravens last game. There are reasons to be optimistic about next Sunday, but there's no way to know the true state of either team until the late-week injury reports are released. Flacco, after all, was just hit with a helmet in his leg, and we won't know the effect that will have on his ability to stay mobile and step into his throws until later this week. One down, two to go, Baltimore!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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