There has only been two weeks since the Ravens faced the Chargers in L.A., and somehow it doesn't matter that Philip Rivers has historically had almost no success in the playoffs; many pundits still predict a win for a team that just lost at home to the Ravens 22-10. It's not that the Chargers aren't a good team--they are. It's simply that they lack what it takes to beat the Ravens: a reasonably mobile quarterback.
Evading the Ravens pressure is no easy feat, but it certainly has been done this season. Patrick Mahomes did it juuuust enough to make one more play than the Ravens needed to allow to win in Kansas City, and Drew Brees did it repeatedly on 3rd and 4th downs to find Michael Thomas for critical drive-extending passes that ultimately made the difference in a game the Ravens lost by a single point. Two weeks ago, however, the Philip Rivers found no such luck. He looked slow and utterly bewildered by the ways the Ravens brought pressure to the point that his otherwise high-flying offense was held to a pedestrian 10 points.
It's highly likely that the Chargers will attempt to run an up-tempo offense in hopes of getting the Ravens defense on its heels and to prevent Baltimore from executing more sophisticated blitzes, but that will likely be hindered by deafening noise from what may prove to be one of the most motivated, raucous crowds in recent Ravens home game history. Beyond crowd noise, this game will feel as though it's being played at 10:00 AM for the Chargers as they are traveling nearly 3000 miles to play a 1:00PM game in the Eastern time zone. No one should be surprised if a team used to playing in southern California struggles to find an offensive rhythm against the top defense in the league in a cold, wet playoff environment in what functionally feels like the morning to them.
I have heard all week how the Chargers will have figured out the Ravens offense having already faced it once before. I am not entirely sure how they have some kind of advantage on that front considering the Ravens have also already seen the Chargers offense and will have had even more time to prepare for it as the Ravens never had to take a day to travel for this game. It certainly does make me nervous that Lamar Jackson has struggled to finish drives, but the Ravens still managed to dominate in total yards with 361 versus a disappointing 198 for the Chargers. The Ravens also had a slightly greater number of first downs and won the time of possession battle.
Despite appearing to be the better team nearly all night in their last meeting with the Chargers, the Ravens still found themselves being driven on by Philips Rivers and company before Patrick Onwassor had one of the most timely forced fumbles taken back for a touchdown in Ravens team history. The same was true last week against the Browns when it took an interception on 4th down to beat a Browns team that came storming back to make the city of Baltimore hold its collective breath. I would say that these isolated occurrences, but critical turnovers and defensive points have been so frequent in the second half of this season that they seem likely rather than lucky.
Many would point to the Ravens offense's ability to sustain drives and keep its defense well-rested and off the field as a reason for an increase in big-time impact defensive plays. I'm sure that has played a major factor, but I would actually point to the fact that this is the first stretch this season where both a healthy Jimmy Smith and Marlon Humphrey have taken the field together. Before Lamar Jackson took over as starting quarterback, the Ravens had a healthy Marlon until he was injured. With Marlon out, the Ravens turned to Jimmy Smith, but he struggled in his first few weeks back and didn't start to round into form until he had played for about a month. As Jimmy got back up to speed and Marlon returned to the field, the Ravens defense suddenly started to look like the dominant unit it should have been all year, and having a pair of quality corners on the outside goes a long way to allow your pass-rushers to hunt and allows a defensive coordinator to bring pressure with more confidence.
There's simply no way the Chargers have gotten so significantly better in two weeks that they'll be able to totally flip the script of the last game and dominate the Ravens--right? Well there is one factor that must be accounted for when analyzing the Ravens: fumbles. Lamar Jackson has had a troubling number of fumbles that have stifled drives and allowed games to stay much closer than they could be. The fumble at the goal line last week against the Browns was baffling as it was only inches away from being a touchdown had Lamar not perplexingly pulled the ball back just as it was about to break the plane of the end zone. A major focus this week by the Ravens staff has to be reduce the odds of such mistakes and utilizing running backs and receivers more to take the pressure off of Lamar. The Ravens won the turnover battle 3-1 last time they played the Chargers, and they need to do it again.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: I'm not worried because even if the Chargers come out swinging and the Ravens find themselves down by 10-14 points late, they still have a quarterback sitting on the sidelines who can run an effective two-minute drill and is has ice in his veins in the playoffs. I'm confident the Ravens won't be forced to resort to putting Flacco back in, but if they need him, he's there. In the end, that's the reason the Ravens can run the offense they run without fear that they lose their starting quarterback. If they do lose their starting quarterback...well they have their starting quarterback who has more playoff wins than any quarterback in the league other than Tom Brady right now. Whatever happens here, the Ravens are prepared.
PREDICTION:
RAVENS 23-17
GET LOUD, BALTIMORE, THIS IS THE MOMENT WE'VE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR!!!
STAY TUNED TOMORROW FOR THE EAGLES-BEARS ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION.
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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