The New York Jets are the first team since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to alternate wins and losses through the first 10 games a season. If that trend continues, then the Ravens' playoff hopes will be dashed this Sunday. Is this alternating trend really something that will continue or does are the Jets' wins and losses simply the result of the types of teams they've been matched up against each week?
The Jets currently hold the final playoff seed in the AFC. They have one more win than the Ravens and one less loss. The Jets have signature wins against the Saints and Patriots, but have been absolutely dominated by lesser teams. Some have characterized the Jets as inconsistent, any maybe that's true in certain ways. The Jets have, however, been consistent with the types of opponents they've beaten and the types of opponents to which they've lost. The Jets have a single road win this season, and that win was against one of the very worst teams in the NFL, the Atlanta Falcons. The Jets also have a single home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Otherwise, the Jets have lost all of their road games and won all of their home games.
In addition to being a poor road team, the Jets seem to struggle against reasonably stout defenses. The Jets lost to the Titans (ranked 9th in total defense), the Steelers (ranked 13th in total defense), the Bengals (6th in points allowed), and the Patriots (7th in points allowed). The Jets' most recent loss was on the road to the Buffalo Bills whose defensive stats are skewed by home much better the Bills' defense performs at home than on the road.
The Jets losses were all against strong defensive teams, and their wins have had a definite pattern as well. The Jets' wins have typically come against teams that struggle to to stop the run. The Jets beat the Patriots (27th ranked run defense), the Saints (17th ranked run defense), the Falcons (30th ranked run defense), and the Bills (24th ranked run defense). The only team the Jets beat with a good run defense was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the Jets only barely beat the Buccaneers 18-17. Additionally, beating the Bucs wasn't exactly impressive as Tampa Bay went on from there to lose their next seven straight games. Otherwise, the Jets simply haven't been able to win games when they didn't have a dominant enough running game to take pressure off of Geno Smith. The Bengals held the Jets under 100 rushing yards and forced the Jets to put the ball in Geno Smith's hands. Smith proved not to be up to the task as he threw for only 4 yards per pass with two interceptions and zero touchdowns.
The Ravens should have an advantage at home against a Jets team that struggles hard on the road, but that doesn't mean the Jets don't have the capability of making trouble for the defending Super Bowl Champions. The Jets have arguably the best defensive line in the league, and part of the reason they were able to beat such elite passing teams as the Patriots and Saints is that they were able to put pressure on two of the greatest quarterbacks in the league and force them into throwing key interceptions. Joe Flacco has had a year filled with interceptions, hits, and pressure due in large part to poor protection and performance from his offensive line. If the Ravens win, it will likely be because their defense forced Geno Smith to make big mistakes rather than because the Ravens put on an offensive clinic.
The Jets have a lackluster secondary, and if the Ravens offensive line can give Flacco enough time to get the ball out cleanly, they should have success through the air against Dee Milliner and Antonio Cromartie. I don't expect Ed Reed to be any more of a factor with the Jets than he was with the #1 ranked defense of the Houston Texans. If anything Reed will be a liability as he's far slower than in the past, and Joe Flacco spent most of his career practicing against him.
The bottom line is that the Jets can run the ball, stop the run, and rush the passer. The Ravens have a good run defense and should have success if they can stop the Jets from running the ball early and put up points to make the Jets play catch-up and put the ball in the hands of their mistake-prone rookie quarterback. The Ravens have lost to lesser opponents, but this is a game the Ravens can and should win.
THURSDAY NIGHT NFL PREDICTION
SAINTS AT FALCONS- The Falcons have simply shown me nothing this season to make me think they can win this game. Yes, the Saints aren't as good on the road, but the Falcons are unusually bad on defense this year and have lost much of what made their offense great to injuries. SAINTS 38-20.
IT'S DO OR DIE FOR THE RAVENS THIS WEEK, LET'S HOPE THEY LIVE TO FIGHT ANOTHER DAY...
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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