Wednesday, November 20, 2013

COULD THE RETURN OF DENNIS PITTA SAVE THE RAVENS' SEASON?

     Dennis Pitta practiced with his team today for the first time since dislocating his hip during the preseason.  Many Ravens fans undoubtedly became excited at the prospect of seeing Pitta back on the field in the coming weeks to potentially add a missing piece to the Ravens offensive puzzle that could push narrow losses into the win column.  Other fans immediately clamored for the Ravens to sit Pitta out as the team will need him fully healthy for 2014,  but which of these courses of action is more realistic and prudent?  Also, what effect will a healthy Pitta have on the Ravens offense if he's able to come back at close to full strength?   Well let's take a look at the facts.
     Dennis Pitta is in a contract year.  It behooves Pitta to play at least some games this season to show any potentially interested teams that he's healthy and capable of playing next season.  If he sits out entirely then teams will assume his injury was extremely serious and his value as a free agent will likely drop at least somewhat.  It is for this reason that John Harbaugh stated that Pitta, barring any setbacks, will play at some point this season.  The idea of sitting him longer to make sure he's healthy is apparently unnecessary as Pitta's injury simply wasn't as serious as originally feared.  There was no damage to connective tissue, and that means that there was only muscular damage which heals much more quickly than ligaments or tendons.
    Assuming that Pitta has healed completely upon taking the field during a game for the first time this season, his presence should immediately help the Ravens in a couple of noticeable ways.  The first of which is Pitta's pass-catching ability.  Pitta has undoubtedly the best hands on the team.  He is a proven chain mover and great on third downs.  During the Ravens spectacular 23-20 win over the Steelers in the the 2011 regular season, Pitta caught six catches that all converted on third downs.  Part of Pitta's talent for converting third downs is his hands, but the other major part is his ability to find soft spots in opposing defenses and get yards after the catch.  Pitta stands at 6'5", and while he's not known for his speed, he uses great moves, vertical leaping ability, and strength to break tackles and continue up field.  The Ravens have often struggled to sustain drives because of a lack of consistent tight end play this season, and that should no longer be a problem when #88 makes his return.
     Because of Dennis Pitta's physical talent and ability to find weaknesses in opposing defenses, other teams have to account for him on every play.  Pitta's presence in the middle of the field prompts opposing teams to drop linebackers back into pass coverage as safeties are typically physically outmatched by the big tight end.  That presence in the middle means less defenders to blitz Flacco and to stop Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce.  Flacco has been statistically the most frequently and heavily blitzed quarterback in the NFL this season, and that's in large part due to the absence of a serious tight end receiving threat.  A healthy Dennis Pitta adds an entirely new dimension to the Ravens offense, and thus, should allow other receivers and running backs to be more successful as well.
     The biggest questions that remain are how healthy Dennis Pitta is and how quickly he can return to actual playing shape.  It's a contract year for Dennis, so there's little doubt that he's going to make all efforts to take the field and demonstrate what he can do for the Ravens and any potential future teams if Baltimore let's Dennis test the free agent market before offering him a serious deal.  The question that no one can definitively answer ahead of time is whether or not the Ravens will win enough games prior to Pitta's return to make his participation useful for the team as far as the playoff hunt is concerned.  If the Ravens lose this week, they're almost certainly out of the playoff race.  If they lose to the Steelers four days later, they're also likely out of the playoff race.  The Ravens have a great opportunity to put together a 3 game home winning streak against 3 teams without winning records.  If they can accomplish that, then Dennis Pitta's return should mean the Ravens can be competitive on the road against the Lions, at home against the Patriots, and on the road once more against the Bengals.
     The odds of the Ravens putting together a three game winning streak before Pitta comes back are low.  The Ravens have lost 4 of their last 5 games, and their next two matchups are against opponents that are entirely capable of beating them.  With all of that said, the Ravens have been extremely competitive in every loss they've had with the exception of their first, and it wouldn't take much to change their losses into wins.  Every single game of the next three games is basically the Ravens last stand.  Whether or not they get into the playoffs depends on their ability to handle their own business and on how well other mediocre wildcard contenders perform during that time frame.   I've said it before, and I'll say it again: the Ravens simply have to remain in the hunt and weather the storm until the return of a healthy Dennis Pitta.  When #88 is back in action, this team can beat anyone.  Don't lose faith, Baltimore...the Ravens are still in the hunt.

AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!

    

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