With just over 24 hours to go before the Ravens and Steelers kick off in front of a national audience, it's hard to not feel at least a little bit nervous. It wasn't long ago that the Steelers appeared incapable of winning a game and doomed to finish in last place in a division saturated with mediocrity, but now they appear to be the hottest team in the AFC North with 5 wins in their last 7 games. It's not that the Steelers suddenly appear unbeatable. They did suffer their third loss in the last 5 years to the Oakland Raiders in Week 8, and the Patriots thoroughly exposed what was thought to be an elite Steelers pass defense at Foxborough in Week 9. Since then, however, the Steelers beat the Bills and Lions in convincing wins in Pittsburgh and beat the Browns in Cleveland last week. The Ravens, meanwhile, won their last two home games against teams that were, at that time, in possession of a playoff spot based on their respective records. The Ravens, in fact, have only lost a single home game on the season, and that loss came at the hands of arguably the most talented quarterback in the NFL during the last 3 years, Aaron Rodgers. The question remains: which is a stronger indicator of a possible win tomorrow, the Ravens' strong home record and recent home success or the Steelers' current 3-game winning streak?
I've always preached that in order to have success analyzing and predicting the outcome of NFL games one must ignore irrelevant statistics. That philosophy has led me to a near-spotless playoff prediction record wherein I picked against Las Vegas oddsmakers from week one of the playoffs and accurately predicted the last two Super Bowl winners despite the Ravens and Giants being underdogs in almost every single post-season game they played. It's easy to say one should ignore irrelevant statistics, but the hard part is correctly determining which statistics are truly relevant to a particular matchup. Homefield advantage in the NFL is often a huge factor, especially with the Ravens. With that said, the Steelers have still managed to win in Baltimore numerous times during the Joe Flacco era. One of those wins came last season as James Harrison strip-sacked Joe Flacco to give the Steelers a short field that set up what ended up being the game winning score in a game the Ravens appeared to have wrapped up.
Last season, however, the Ravens and Steelers were both much different teams than the ones that will square off tomorrow night. Hell, the Ravens and Steelers are even both somewhat different teams than the ones that faced one another earlier this season. Last season the Steelers possessed the strongest defense in the NFL as it pertained to yardage allowed per game. Despite the lengthy absence of Troy Polamalu, the Steelers secondary proved quite strong. There was even a time during the middle of last season that analysts considered the Steelers to be a serious playoffs contender based on some impressive wins. The Ravens, meanwhile, went 9-2 through the first 11 weeks of last season in large part because of a higher octane Ravens offense that was forced to pick up the slack for a Ravens defense that lacked a healthy Terrell Suggs, Ray Lewis, and Lardarius Webb for long stretches. Fortunately for the Ravens, they set a franchise scoring record and averaged just over 30 points per game. Maybe the Ravens also had just a touch of luck with incredibly close plays such as the world's closest game-winning field goal against the Patriots and the conversion on 4th and 29 that saved what would have been a heartbreaking loss in San Diego.
Fast forward to 2013 where we've seen a Steelers team whose defense has fallen off significantly, but whose offense has more than made up for defensive shortcomings as of late. Meanwhile, the Ravens suddenly find themselves unable to consistently and effectively block which has led to a catastrophic dip in their offensive production despite a return to top 10 status for their defense. Joe Flacco no longer has reliable targets to which he can pass or a strong power running game on which his team can lean when the passing game simply isn't clicking. Flacco no longer enjoys the incredible protection he had during a dominant playoff run that ended in Super Bowl victory. The Ravens don't even currently have an elite defense by their own historical standards even if it is statistically much improved from last season.
What the Ravens DO currently possess is a team that has consistently won at home this season and a defense that has recently found success shutting down some impressive offensive weapons. The Ravens secondary no longer has the greatest free safety of a generation, but it DOES have two rather impressive cornerbacks, Jimmy Smith and Lardarius Webb. Those corners have recently held their own against the likes of A.J. Green, Brandon Marshall, and Alshon Jeffrey. The Ravens defense, in fact, held the high octane offense of the Bears to only 16 points in Chicago. If it weren't for 7 points scored by the Bears' defense, the ravens would have won with a rather impressive defensive road performance. Against the Bengals, the Ravens defense proved dominant once more. If it weren't for a bizarre batted ball on what would have ordinarily been an unsuccessful hair mary attempt, the Ravens would have only allowed a typically dominant Bengals offense to score 10 points in the entire game.
Maybe the Ravens defense hasn't exactly shut down opponents on the road, but at home, the Ravens have allowed an average of only 10.4 points per game this season. The Ravens have also scored an average of exactly 20 points per game at home, and that has been against some of the league's most impressive defenses. The Ravens faced the Texans, Browns, Jets, and Bengals at home, all of whom rank in the top ten in total defense this season. The only non-elite defense the Ravens have faced at home has been the Packers, and they were, at the time, effective enough on offense to take advantage of some serious mistakes on the part of the Ravens coaching staff and beat the Ravens in a venue where few teams have in the last 5 seasons.
The Ravens won't face a top ten ranked defense tomorrow, but they will face 13th ranked defense in the NFL. The Steelers pass defense is ranked 10th in the NFL in total passing yards allowed, but that hasn't stopped teams from scoring on them. The Steelers have allowed an average of 24.5 points per game on the road this season. Even if one simply counts the games after their bye week, the the Steelers still have allowed an average of 23.25 points per road game. More importantly, the Steelers have only two road wins this season, and those wins came against the Browns last week and the Jets in Week 6. The Browns certainly beat the Ravens in Cleveland earlier this season, but that was with a different quarterback than the one that the Steelers faced for most of last week's game. The Ravens suffocated the Browns when led by Brandon Weeden earlier this year, and it's simply no surprise that the Steelers also able to do so once Jason Campbell left the game.
As for the Jets, neither the Ravens nor the Steelers should pat themselves on the back too hard for shutting down Geno Smith. Smith has played so inconsistently that a win against his team isn't some sort of indication that the Steelers or Ravens are back on track. Both the Ravens and Steelers struggled to move the ball consistently against the Jets and had to settle for field goals from the redzone many more times than they would have preferred. The point remains, however, that the Steelers have only won two of their six road games this season, and both of those road wins came against offensively anemic teams. The Jets, after all, have only scored scored an average of 16.9 points per game this season, and the Browns have only scored 18.45 points per game. More importantly, however, the Browns have only averaged 13.66 points per game when Brandon Weeden has had more than 30 passing attempts.
One important group of statistics that I should not forget to mention is that which was compiled in Week 7...when the Steelers beat the Ravens in Pittsburgh. The Ravens, at that point in the season, struggled each week to score points early in games. They quickly found themselves losing to the Steelers 7-0 as the Steelers drove rapidly downfield on their first drive and scored a touchdown off of a shovel pass to Heath Miller. The Ravens defense tightened up from that point on, and only allowed the Steelers to score field goals for the rest of the game, but the Ravens offense failed to put the ball into the endzone in critical opportunities that would have given Baltimore a much needed win. The Ravens had more first downs (19) than the Steelers (17), and they also had one more offensive yard. The Steelers, however, had more yards per play (5.2) than the Ravens (4.7). The Steelers out-gained the Ravens on the ground with a 141 rushing yards while the Ravens only amassed 82.
Regardless, the Ravens still only lost to the Steelers 19-16 off of a last second field goal. The Steelers likely won't have nearly the same offensive success in Baltimore, and they also likely won't have nearly as much defensive success keeping the Ravens out of the endzone with major injuries to members of their defensive line. The Ravens have scored more points on better defenses this season in Baltimore, and they've also shut down more impressive offensive weapons than anything the Steelers possess. Beyond all of that, the Steelers will be without their starting defensive tackle, Steve McClendon, as well as Lamar Woodley. Brett Keisel will play, but he's not 100%. On a short week, the healthier team and the home team usually possess a huge advantage. Fortunately for Baltimore, both the healthier and home team happen to be the Ravens.
Maybe statistics don't always matter in Ravens-Steelers matchups, but they're basically all we have to go off of when predicting this game. Both the Ravens and Steelers have looked at least somewhat better recently, and this could end up being another slobber-knocker match with a razor-thin margin of victory. In a season where wins have been hard to come by for the Ravens and Steelers, this Thanksgiving showdown feels almost as nerve-racking and important as a playoff game. I've said it many times before this season, but this game is truly do or die for Joe Flacco and company. The Ravens must beat the Steelers to have any chance to get into the playoffs. A loss would surely put them too far behind the field of contenders with some difficult opponents still left on the schedule. The Baltimore fans are behind you, Ravens. Now go take care of business.
THANKSGIVING PREDICTIONS
PACKERS AT LIONS- Without Aaron Rodgers there's simply no way the Packers win this game in Detroit. LION 38-17.
RAIDERS AT COWBOYS- The Cowboys aren't unbeatable, but the Raiders certainly can't beat them in Dallas. There's not a whole lot to this game except that the Cowboys will put up some serious points. COWBOYS 42-21.
STEELERS AT RAVENS- Divisional matchups are difficult to predict, but the Ravens only narrowly lost to the Steelers in Pittsburgh, and the Ravens have been vastly better at home than on the road this season. This could be another close game with a 3 point margin of victory, but I believe the Ravens will have far less trouble running the ball this week facing a largely injured Steelers defensive line. The Steelers will prove rather vulnerable in pass defense as Troy Polamalu has been exposed numerous times this season for his inability to perform in pass coverage. Antonio Brown is having a great season, but was limited to 50 receiving yards last time the Ravens faced the Steelers and was held out of the endzone. The Steelers, in fact, were limited to only 145 passing yards in total against the Ravens earlier this season, and that was with a homefield advantage. The Baltimore crowd will enhance the performance of the Ravens defense, and the Ravens pass rush will likely have a big day harassing Big Ben. This won't be a monumental blowout, but it should be a solid win with a comfortable margin of victory for a Ravens team that has won 4 out of 5 home games this season. RAVENS 23-16.
THIS IS IT, BALTIMORE
THE MOMENT WE'VE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR...
IT'S TIME FOR CHARM CITY TO GET LOUD!!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
No comments:
Post a Comment