I will begin this blog post by making note of the fact that I correctly predicted all 4 divisional round wins over the weekend. I don't say this to sound boisterous, but I'm more proud that the straight forward statistical analysis provided in all 4 of my blog posts last week proved effective and accurate. Blogging about each one of the matchups forced me to look up statistical trends to a greater degree than I would have in most other. I am also proud that I didn't pick the easy, heavily favored teams to win in 2 of the 4 games. After reviewing all of the statistics for each of the teams in the divisional round, I found it surprising that the Packers and Saints could be widely predicted to win by the Las Vegas odds-makers and sports commentators everywhere. After all, the Saints have never ever won a road playoff game, and the Giants are a much improved version of the team that only barely lost to the Packers earlier in the season. Enough about last week. Let's look ahead to the AFC Championship!
One particular statistic that jumped out at me today was the fact that the Patriots have not beaten a team this year with a winning record. The only teams that the Patriots played that finished their season with a winning record were the Giants and Steelers, and the Patriots lost to both of them. The Patriots did beat one playoff team, but that playoff team (the Broncos) finished their regular season 8-8 and only backed into the playoffs because they happened to play in an extremely poor division this season.
This fact in no way discounts the Patriots offensive performance during the 2011 season, but it does reveal the Patriots to be a relatively untested team going into the AFC championship. The Ravens, by contrast, have played 7 games against playoff teams and won every single one of them. The Ravens swept the Steelers, Bengals, and Texans, and beat the 49ers in an exciting 16-6 Thanksgiving night slugfest. The Ravens went up against a team with an elite quarterback and a talented speedy group of receivers twice in the Steelers, and the Ravens also went up against just about all of the top 10 defenses in the league over the course of the season. So if the Ravens' offensive numbers don't appear extremely impressive, please make note of their opponents over the last 17 games.
I could make a prediction about the outcome of the AFC Championship game at this point, but it would be nothing more than an uninformed guess without first viewing the injury report for both teams on Wednesday or Thursday at the latest. Please stay tuned this week as I will provide updates and in depth analysis to the two upcoming conference championship games. As always, GO RAVENS!
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