I heard conjecture over the last couple of days about Tim Tebow's chances of continuing his trend of surprising upsets. Tebow just took it to the Steeler defense like no other quarterback has done yet this year, but I have serious doubts that the Broncos can beat a team that only recently thumped them 41-23 in Denver. Were the Steelers simply that broken? Or has Tim Tebow truly stepped up his game that much? It appears as though Tebow did take a big step in the right direction with a passing performance of 2 touchdowns, 316 passing yards, and no interceptions. The jury is still out, however, on whether or not his completions were the product of the Steeler defense simply not taking him seriously or if they were the product of his actual growth as a passer. It must be a combination of the two and here's why:
Anyone paying close attention to the Steelers' defense during Sunday night's game could see that the Steelers were committed to stopping the running game of the Broncos. The Broncos, after all, possessed the #1 ranked rushing attack of the regular season with Willis McGahee having a resurgance in his productivity with nearly 1200 rushing yards and Tebow rushing for 660 yards and 5.4 yards per carry. Tim Tebow also never came close to 300 yards passing, let alone against the NFL's highest rated pass defense. Conventional wisdom would therefore suggest that if you stop the run, you beat the Broncos. Maybe it was the pep talk given to him by one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, or perhaps it was simply the knowledge that the playoffs are truly a do or die situation, but Tim Tebow used every single weapon in his personal arsenal to make the Steeler defense look like just an average group. He ran the ball well and had a beautiful rushing touchdown, he evaded a pass rush that looked as though it would have taken down any other quarterback in the league at times, and he rolled out of the pocket to make deep, high pressure, accurate throws to his speedy wide receivers. In other words...he looked like a more athletic (non-sex offender) version of Ben Roethlistberger with an unorthodox throwing motion. For that, we must give the young guy credit; that was a fantastic performance.
Tebow's performance, however, was made a lot easier by the massive number of major injuries to the Steelers' roster. Injuries to Mendenhall and Roethlisberger took away the Steelers' ability to sustain long drives, keep their defense fresh, and actually find the endzone rather than settling for field goals. Injuries to Keisel, Hampton, and Woodley greatly decreased the Steelers ability to both contain Tebow and put pressure on him. The absence of Ryan Clark proved extremely costly as it meant a serious void in a secondary that had looked quite strong earlier in the season. Suddenly without Clark, Ike Taylor looked woefully underprepared to line up against Demaryius Thomas, and we all know how poor Troy Polamalu is in pass coverage at this point. On top of the injuries, the Steelers defensive coordinator, Dick LeBeau, did something rather unusual: he coordinated a game poorly. LeBeau seemed to have a handle on the game as his defense slowed the Broncos scoring substantially in the second half, limiting Tebow and the Broncos to a single field goal. The Steelers appeared to have momentum on their side as they drove down the field with only less than two minutes left in regulation. A poor snap and a vicious Broncos pass rush put a halt to that momentum and the game went into overtime. This is where LeBeau made an absolutely horrendous error in judgement.
LeBeau had paid careful attention to the Bronco's pattern of play calling all game. All too frequently, the Broncos handed the ball off to McGahee on first down. Knowing this, LeBeau had the box stacked with nearly the entire defense just prior to the snap. As a result, the relatively slow members of the Steeler secondary found themselves chasing the Broncos biggest receiving playmaker rather than taking an angle on him and tackling him the way they would have been able to do had they been sitting further back in coverage. One quick footrace and stiff arm later, Broncos knocked the Steelers out of the playoffs and pulled out a win in a game they were widely assumed to lose.
The biggest question remaining, however, is whether or not such a spectacular first round upset win will have any bearing on the outcome of next weeks difficult matchup against the Patriots in New England. The biggest things Tebow gained from beating the Steelers are self-confidence and increased confidenced from his teammates and coaching staff. It's entirely probable that the Broncos coaches will look to use what Tebow did successfully and try to duplicate it against a defense that allowed far more passing yards and points per game than the Steelers during regular season. The offensive line in combination with the ability to scramble gave Tim Tebow a ton of time to find open receivers, and when he did, he was accurate with deep passes. When he didn't find anyone open, he was still able to run for substantial yardage or wisely throw the ball away at times. I'm actually quite condifent in Tebow's ability to score on the Patriots...but then again, many teams have scored 20+ points on the Patriots (including the Broncos) and still lost the game.
The reason, of course, is the sophisticated high powered passing attack of the Patriots coupled with the solid running game of Benjarvus Green-Ellis. I'm far from a Patriot fan, but one has to marvel at the play of their two young tight ends and the amazing play-making ability of Wes Welker. At the helm of the vaunted Patriots' offense is, of course, Tom Brady. Brady, though not successful in his last two playoff appearances, is no stranger to post-season success. Brady has a cannon of an arm and the ability to score rapidly when it would appear as though his team has already lost a game. I'll refer you back to September 14, 2009 when the Patriots hosted the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo led 24-10 late in the 4th quarter and Tom Brady, with the aid of a Buffalo Bills' fumbled kick off return, scored two touchdowns with one successful 2 point conversion in the final 2:06 of the game. Think about that for a minute. Just when you think the Patriots are about to lose, they score more in the last two minutes and 6 seconds of the game than they did for the first 57 minutes and 54 seconds. THAT is what Tim Tebow is up against. One can not stay content to get a lead on the Patriots and simply sit on it hoping that you'll hold them for the rest of the game. Consider the last time the Miami Dolphins played the Patriots a few weeks ago. The Dolphins led the Patriots 17-0 at halftime and ended up losing 27-24. This is simply what the Patriots do. They haven't won every game this season, but at 13-3 they haven't had too many losses.
Ultimately, I believe we can expect a closer game than the last meeting of the Broncos and Patriots, but it'll take a LOT of Tebow magic to score enough points to keep up with the Patriots. The Broncos are going to have to study what the Steelers and Giants did to beat the Patriots, and hope they can find a way to force turnovers and control the clock to keep Brady off the field. I wish the Broncos the best of luck, but I won't bet money on them winning this one.
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