As much time as I spent writing about the upcoming AFC championship, ultimately the NFC championship game is harder to analyze and predict. Much of my analysis comes after long hours spent looking over every possible relevant set of statistics between the two teams involved in any given game, but I ran into a bit of a roadblock with the New York Giants. The Giant's level of play has surged as of late, and because of that, it's tough to use regular season stats to predict their post-season future. The method to my statistical analysis has been to only look at what I deem to be relevant statistics and omit the rest. Thus far, this strategy has proven 100% successful. Now we get to the hard part: deciding which statistics are relevant in predicting a matchup between the two teams picked as underdogs of last week's divisional round games. One extremely helpful factor in all of this statistical madness is the fact that these two teams already played each other during the regular season. Now let's go over that game and then use the playoff games to predict how the newly enhanced play of the Giants will fare against a team that already beat them earlier this season.
During the week 10 road loss to the San Francisco 49ers, the Giants out-gained Alex Smith and company absolutely stopped Frank Gore dead in his tracks as the Giants held the star running back to zero...that's right zero...rushing yards and only 8 yards receiving. One would think that totally bottling up Frank Gore would guarantee a win against the 49ers, but the 49ers defense ulimately proved too much too handle for the Giants. The Giants had 95 more total offensive yards, 5 more first downs, and had possession of the ball almost 10 minutes longer than the 49ers. The 49ers, however, intercepted Eli Manning twice, successfully converted a fourth quarter 2 point conversion, and stopped the Giants on their final drive to try to tie the game.
The 49ers' defensive success hinged on their employment of the same strategy that the Steelers used during the regular season to beat the Patriots. The 49ers sent 4 or fewer pass rushers against Eli Manning on nearly 75% of his dropbacks during the game. The 49ers pressured Eli with only 3 or 4 man rushes which caused Manning to make poor throws with many 49ers in pass coverage. Carlos Rogers had a huge day with both of the 49ers' interceptions. Both of those interceptions were on passes longer than 15 yards downfield which proved to be a trend for the 49ers even into the post season. The 49ers give up a significant chunk of passing yards per game (230.9), but allow an incredibly low number of touchdowns and have the habit of causing a headache-inducing number of turnovers.
Speaking of turnovers, the 49ers had 5 of them against the high octane Saints' offense. In one of the most exciting playoff games in recent years, the 49ers took the ball away from Drew Brees and his teammates enough times to tilt the odds in their favor and win 36-32, thus solidifying the 49ers spot as one of the top defenses in the NFL (please note that I have a hard time calling their defense the best in the NFL when the Ravens beat them 16-6 on Thanksgiving and had 9 sacks as well as an interception in the endzone right before half time, but who's counting...).
The 49ers just got done edging a team with a historically dominant offensive season, so they should be favored this weekend right? What's that you say? Oh yes I forgot to mention that the Giants just finished an even more impressive road stomping of the team that everyone (except me) assumed would return to the Superbowl. How did they do it? Well that's simple, they caused 4 turnovers and took advantage of a poor Packers' pass defense. Well darn, now it appears as though this prediction just got more difficult. Who do you choose? The team that edged a Saints team with consistently poor road performances all season? Or should you choose the team that somehow plays better on the road than at home as was evident in their metaphorical shellaking of the winningest team in the NFL during 2011? It appears as though both teams are peaking at the right time, but which peak is higher? To figure that out, we have to examine what has changed about the Giants since the first time both of these teams met.
No one can deny the value of a strong pass rushing ability in the NFL. In a regular season dominated by strong performances from the league's top quarterbacks, the ability to pressure and hit such offensive playmakers proved a critical asset in the post-season. Suddenly a team's total reliance on their ace quarterback proved more a liability than a strength. After all, if you get to Aaron Rodgers, who else do the Packers have to make plays? I'll give you a hint: the answer rhymes with '01. The Giants' pass rush increased dramatically upon the return of full health to Osi Umeniyora and Justin Tuck. A team that couldn't generate enough pressure to beat the Redskins (even once this season) suddenly found themselves tearing through far more competitive teams. To give you an example of the effect of the recent improvement of the Giants' pass rush, consider that Aaron Rodgers completed 84% of his passes and three touchdowns outside the numbers during the week 13 game against the Giants. Last week, Aaron Rodgers completed 47.8% of his passes with no touchdowns outside the numbers against the Giants. Much of the credit for this goes to a dominant defensive line and Justin Tuck. Their domiance at the line of scrimmage allowed Rodgers less time to make the clock-stopping sideline passes that would have been required to mount a comeback.
Tuck and Osi aren't the only Giants who returned to full health recently. Mario Manningham had been injured and saw limited playing time up until the playoffs. Suddenly Giants found themselves in possession of 3 healthy top wide receivers with which to spread the field (as though Nicks and Cruz weren't enough). Manningham caught 4 passes for 68 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons and will be yet another receiver that the 49ers will have to account for on Sunday.
The Giants barely lost to the Packers during the regular season, and went on to dominate the Pack in the post-season due to the return of several previously injured playmakers. The Giants also barely lost to the 49ers during the regular season, but I doubt they will dominate the 49ers the second time around because the 49ers still possess a great defense and play well at home. I do, however, believe the Giants will win this game as they now have the defense to both stop Frank Gore AND put pressure on Alex Smith to make bad throws. The 49ers will be able to get pressure on Eli Manning, but unlike Drew Brees, Eli has monumental success on the road and especially on the road in the playoffs. Eli now has 1,904 post season passing yards and is 4-1 in road playoff games. Eli also now has a full cast of top-notch receivers who can both beat the 49ers' defensive backs downfield as well as win jump ball situations (Hakeem Nicks rivals Megatron at this feat). I would be ecstatic to see a rematch of Harbaugh Bowl (mostly because I'm confident the Ravens would win handedly), but I'm equally excited by the idea of a rematch of the Ravens' only Superbowl. Now I just need the Ravens to once again handle their business and continue their flawless streak of beating playoff teams. My prediction: Giants 34-23. As always, GO RAVENS!
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