I posted my first game prediction on Thursday night that the Patriots would soundly defeat the Chiefs who were notably without Tamba Hali. I included the caveat that the Patriots often begin the regular season poorly but make excellent adjustments after roughly the first 3-4 weeks and inevitably finish with 12-14 wins. The Chiefs' surprisingly dominant 42-27 win over Patriots was not, therefore, a surprise, but the fact that it happened in Foxborough undoubtedly raised some eyebrows.
I have since read sports writers question whether or not this is the beginning of the end of Tom Brady's dominance, and while I recognize that his career could decline precipitously as he is now north of 40 years old, I think the bigger lesson to take away from Thursday night is that no one truly knows just how good any NFL team is in Week 1--not even the Patriots. My predictions tend to become more accurate as the season progresses due to the greater volume of statistics at my disposal for analysis. It is, thus, only for amusement that I take slightly educated guesses as to which teams will win during the first few weeks of the season. I, after all, thought the Patriots would be even more dominant than last season with the addition of Brandin Cooks to a roster that just finished one of the most impressive wins in Super Bowl history.
As for the Ravens, I recognize that Joe Flacco's absence during the preseason has meant far less time for the veteran quarterback to develop a rhythm and chemistry with his receiving corps going into the regular season, but I can't help but be encouraged by what appears as though it could be the strongest, fastest Ravens defense in over a decade. The Ravens offense may not come out incredibly crisp at first, but it has the tools and weapons to ultimately be vastly upgraded over last year's unit. The addition of a healthy Jeremy Maclin, for example, gives Baltimore the fastest, potentially most explosive receiving corps it has ever had. With elite speed from all three top receivers as well as the pass-catching ability of Danny Woodhead, it's safe to say Joe will have an opportunity to revive the Ravens' vertical passing attack while still enjoying the presence a sure-handed chain mover as a safety net out of the backfield. Dennis Pitta may have had great receiving chemistry with Flacco, but he was woefully inadequate as a blocker. Getting Nick Boyle and Ben Watson back healthy means Flacco will have playmaking tight ends who aren't afraid to get a little dirty in the trenches.
My optimism for the Ravens offense is, nevertheless, accompanied by some lingering concerns. The offensive line has some quality pieces including Marshal Yanda, Ronnie Stanley, and recently acquired starting right tackle, Austin Howard, but the center and left guard positions still leave me with an uneasy feeling. James Hurst has reportedly improved markedly over the off-season, and Ryan Jensen has performed admirably in the pre-season, but neither is a truly proven starter. It was James Hurst, in fact, who was bulldozed into the side of Joe Flacco's knee in the 2015 season causing Flacco to tear his ACL. One thing is for sure: this is a much larger offensive line on average than that of the past several seasons. Jensen is far bigger than the man he replaced in Jeremy Zuttah, James Hurst is much bigger and stronger than Alex Lewis, though Lewis is a better athlete and likely has a much higher ceiling, and although Rick Wagner was the second ranked right tackle in the league last season, Austin Howard is even bigger. The Ravens definitely have the size and power to impose their will on the ground--now it's just a matter of execution.
The questions surrounding the Ravens offense should by no means suggest that the Bengals are an insurmountable obstacle. The Bengals won 6 games last season, and the last of those wins came as the result of a total lack of motivation on the part of the Ravens players following their elimination from playoff contention only a week earlier. The Bengals will not have two of their top defenders in Adam "Pacman" Jones and Vontaze Burfict, and they lost two of their best starting offensive linemen since last season. Cincy's offensive line has, in fact, been characterized as a significant weakness going into a game where it will face one of the fiercest defensive lines in the league. A.J. Green has given the Ravens fits in the past, but he has done so in years where the Ravens have had serious gaps in their secondary personnel. Baltimore now boasts the top rated safety tandem in the league and a vastly upgraded stable of corners. The Bengals also fared far better offensively before their previous offensive coordinator, Hue, Jackson, left to become the head coach of the Browns. Jackson's creativity allowed Andy Dalton to flourish in ways he has not done since Jackson's departure.
Does this mean I believe the Ravens will absolutely flatten the Bengals? Absolutely not. This will still be a difficult divisional matchup, but I think people overestimate the Bengals based on what they were before losing Hugh Jackson and even pieces such as Domata Peko and Muhammad Sanu. Joe Mixon doesn't appear ready to be the starting running back, and first round pick John Ross is not 100% healthy after a knee injury within the last week. The Ravens have appeared substantially banged up this pre-season, but they will take the field with only one real member of the 53 man roster not suiting up. The same cannot be said for the Bengals. The Ravens are -3 point underdogs in this matchup, and that's just the way they like it. Now let's take a look at this week's predictions!
THE PICKS
JETS AT BILLS- I can't imagine too many fans of either of these organizations have delusions that their team is going to the playoffs this season--let alone a Super Bowl. The Bills traded away Sammy Watkins, and the Jets appear to be purposefully dismantling their team in an effort to reboot and rebuild. If I had to take an educated guess, the Bills are still the better of these two teams and they're playing at home. BILLS 23-14
FALCONS AT BEARS- The Bears are horrible and the Falcons offense is absolutely devastatingly potent. FALCONS 35-17
RAVENS AT BENGALS- The Bengals haven't done enough to improve since last season, and I firmly believe the Ravens have done so. A losing team lost even most important pieces at the wrong time. The Ravens defensive line will stuff the run and bully a weakened Bengals offensive line. Joe Flacco will find his rhythm by the second half, and that will be enough to put down these kitties, but it will be close. Two important field goals from Justin Tucker will make the difference.
RAVENS 20-17
STEELERS AT BROWNS- The Browns will shock the world as they'll hang with the Steelers through much of this game, but the return of Martavis Bryant as a big deep threat will prove a deciding factor in this one. STEELERS 31-20
CARDINALS AT LIONS- Tough for me to believe the Lions will lose a home opener to a Cardinals team with a severely declining starting quarterback. LIONS 27-21
JAGUARS AT TEXANS- I'm not buying the Texans as a legitimate playoff contender until they get a real quarterback, but the Jaguars have to do something seriously this year to make me stop believing they're not almost totally useless despite a sizeable amount of hype over the last couple of seasons. TEXANS 24-10
RAIDERS AT TITANS- There are some who are quick to anoint the Raiders as an elite team once again after an impressive regular season in 2016. I, however, am not one of those people. Much of Derek Carr's talent as a quarterback depends on his mobility and athleticism to evade pressure and buy time to throw. Carr has simply not had enough time following a late-season ACL tear to be confident in his legs. I expect Marcus Marriota to take a big step forward this season, and it starts Week 1. The Raiders defense also still shouldn't scare anyone. TITANS 30-23
EAGLES AT REDSKINS- Nothing I've seen from the Redskins this off-season has made me think they could win their division, but we won't know until they play in a real game. The Eagles, on the other hand, have added a host of impact players, and Carson Wentz is pretty damn talented. EAGLES 24-13
COLTS AT RAMS- Andrew Luck isn't starting, and the Colts are going on the road. RAMS 17-10
SEAHAWKS AT PACKERS- No more Beastmode, and Earl Thomas is coming off of a season-ending injury. Russell Wilson is usually able to do some damage, but the Packers should open up well at home this season. PACKERS 28-21
PANTHERS AT 49ERS- The 49ers have very little to be excited about at this point but the Panthers have the potential to regain their footing in the NFC race. PANTHERS 26-23
GIANTS AT COWBOYS- The Giants were the only team in the league that truly appeared to have the Cowboys figured out last season, and this Cowboys team doesn't have all the same linemen from a unit that dominated just about everyone in 2016. Also no Ezekiel Elliot. GIANTS 24-21
SAINTS AT VIKINGS- The Vikings defense was fierce last season, and they'll probably do enough to allow their offense to edge the Saints. It's a long way from Nawlins. VIKINGS 27-21
CHARGERS AT BRONCOS- The Broncos don't impress me. The Chargers typically don't either, but Phillip Rivers seems to do reasonably well at the beginning of most seasons while his array of weapons is still healthy. CHARGERS 33-20
THIS IS IT, FOOTBALL FANS! WE ONCE AGAIN HAVE A REASON TO LOOK FORWARD TO SUNDAYS!
AS ALWAYS
GO RAVENS!!!
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